What is the Deal With Varys?

[Direwolf Blitzer]

I'm sure this topic has been done to death, but hey, is there a topic that hasn't?

Since discovering the joys of the Kindle web reader (and the Heresy threads) I've been doing a lot of re-reading, selective and otherwise. Please, no one tell my boss. Since we often speculate a lot about factions on this board, and who's aligned with whom, I wanted to start a discussion about everyone's second-favorite eunuch, Varys. Just what is his deal? Whose side is he on? I'll throw out some possibilities.

Varys is exactly what he says he is - a true patriot, loyalist to the realm. He does it for the children!

Evidence for: Well, he does kinda seem to be shooting straight with Ned when he comes disguised as the gaoler. Maybe Varys is defined by his experience as a child. He was a helpless orphan, and he was abused horribly. He doesn't want that to happen to others.

I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace.

The High Septon once told me that as we sin, so do we suffer. If that's true, Lord Eddard, tell me ... why is it always the innocents who suffer most, when you high lords play your game of thrones?

Evidence against: he's already plotting a Targ-led invasion of Westeros. The whole episode is worth reading, and too long to quote fully, but the scene where Arya is hiding in the secret passageways and hears a disguised Varys chatting with a man who must be Illyrio lays it out.

Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.

So Varys isn't lying when he says the realm needs peace. It needs peace until Varys' contenders are ready, at which point Varys hopes to have war.

Varys is a Targaryen loyalist!

Evidence for: Pretty straightforward. He got Dany and Viserys out of Westeros. His associate Illyrio sheltered and fed them. He's also likely to be involved with Aegon "Targaryen."

Evidence against: Barristan Selmy in aDwD seems to think it was Varys who set the events of the rebellion in motion, after a fashion.

With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. [snip] ...and everything had gone awry from there.

If Varys loves the Targs, why did he set Aerys against Rhaegar? Selmy doesn't directly blame Aerys for Summerhall and the rebellion, and it's not clear that there is a direct connection. But it's still weird. If Varys loved the Targs, why side with Aerys? He was a madman, constantly inviting rebellion with his antics. Wouldn't a true Targ loyalist want the beloved Rhaegar on the throne, to sort of heal the realm and stop setting great lords on fire?

Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist!

Evidence for: Aegon. People think he's a Blackfyre. I'm not well-versed in this theory, so I will leave it to others.

Evidence against: Dany and Viserys are definitely not Blackfyres, and he helped them.

Varys just likes dragons!

A lame theory, IMO, but I throw it out there because it's the only thing that squares love of Targs with love of Blackfyres.

Varys is the Great Other!

Well, he is sowing a lot of chaos in Westeros. He may have fomented Robert's rebellion. He and Illyrio definitely wanted Starks and Lannisters (and everyone else) at each other's throats. Now he's backing two possible candidates for the throne, one of whom may not be legitimate, and who may war with the other. Why do this, unless you just love war and death and such?

And that's all I got for now. Cheers!

[Doc Dynamo]

I think Varys has a vision of good, stable government and his anti-Targ because the prevalence of insanity in the family is antithesis of stability.

I think Varys was not really helping Vis and Dan with the marriage to Khal Drogo. That the crazy and arrogant Viserys pissed of KD and got killed was eminently forseeable. KD had no intention of invading Westeros before the posioning attempt on Danny.

Finally, I don't think a Dothraki invasion of Westeros is even feasible. How many ships would it take to move a 50,000 man Khalisar to Westeros? In DwD, Martin says that you can jam about 100 men in a ship. So that's 500 ships. But the Dothraki are cavalry, so what about the horses? In the middle ages, a horse transport could carry 20-30 horses. So that's another 1,500-2,500 ships for 50,000 horses. But you really need more than 1 or horse per soldier --- the mongols had 2-4 horses per soldier. So that's another 1,500-10,000 ships. And what about the women and children? Are they going to just leave them behind? Either KD has detach a substantial part of his force to guard them or bring them with. If he brings them that's more ships (maybe another 1,500). There aren't enough ships in Essos to carry a Dothraki khalisar to Westeros, and if there were there's no way KD could ever get enough money to pay for them.

I think Varys expected Viserys to die and for Danny to be drifting around the Dothraki sea forever. Illyio might not known that this was the real plan.

If as most readers think Aegon is not really Targaryen, then Varys backing him is the ultimate anti-Targ move. What better way to keep the Targs out forever than by establishing a new fake Targ dynasty?

[Agamemnon]

I really cant figure Varys out, he literally acts against himself all the time. I get to thinking he is pro or against a particular faction, but then have to change my mind because there is equal evidence of him helping and hurting almost everyone.

I think he is just completely impartial and giving both sides exactly 50% so he has a secure position with whoever comes out on top.

Secondly,

Varys is my Third favorite eunuch, after Grey Worm and Reek respectively.

[Hos the Hostage]

Who is everyone's most favorite eunuch? I'm curious.

[mediterraneo]

Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist, because he is a Blackfyre himself.

He definitely is not interested in the good of the Realm, nor of the children. He started civil wars for his objectives, actually trampling the future of the people who lives in the Realm for his objectives.
He also said Illyrio, when the two met under King's Landing, that he needs more "birds" which are slave children that have their tongues cut.
He brainwashes the children in believing they are working for some "greater good" he paints for them, and they were the objective of his lies to the dieing Kevan.
Varys is the last male Blackfyre, the last female Blackfyre being Serra, Illyrio's wife. "Aegon" is Illytrio's son with Serra, and that's why the first and second most rich me in Pentos risk everything they've got (and in Varys case even his life) to go to Westeros to do something that includes causing Civil War. In the Arya chapter in which they appear together in the first book it is very clear that their plan is well defined since a lot, including "phases". "You are late", "no, it is you that are early on the timetable", they discuss.
Varys always lies when he talks about the good of the realm.

Bye...

[Direwolf Blitzer]

Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist, because he is a Blackfyre himself.

He definitely is not interested in the good of the Realm, nor of the children. He started civil wars for his objectives, actually trampling the future of the people who lives in the Realm for his objectives.

He also said Illyrio, when the two met under King's Landing, that he needs more "birds" which are slave children that have their tongues cut.

He brainwashes the children in believing they are working for some "greater good" he paints for them, and they were the objective of his lies to the dieing Kevan.

Varys is the last male Blackfyre, the last female Blackfyre being Serra, Illyrio's wife. "Aegon" is Illytrio's son with Serra, and that's why the first and second most rich me in Pentos risk everything they've got (and in Varys case even his life) to go to Westeros to do something that includes causing Civil War. In the Arya chapter in which they appear together in the first book it is very clear that their plan is well defined since a lot, including "phases". "You are late", "no, it is you that are early on the timetable", they discuss.

Varys always lies when he talks about the good of the realm.

Bye...

A very good point that I meant to quote. Not only does he talk about cutting their tongues out, Illyrio rebukes him a little for going through them so fast.

I really cant figure Varys out, he literally acts against himself all the time. I get to thinking he is pro or against a particular faction, but then have to change my mind because there is equal evidence of him helping and hurting almost everyone.

I think he is just completely impartial and giving both sides exactly 50% so he has a secure position with whoever comes out on top.

Secondly,

Varys is my Third favorite eunuch, after Grey Worm and Reek respectively.

I forgot about Reek, that dear, emasculated fellow.

I think Varys has a vision of good, stable government and his anti-Targ because the prevalence of insanity in the family is antithesis of stability.

I think Varys was not really helping Vis and Dan with the marriage to Khal Drogo. That the crazy and arrogant Viserys pissed of KD and got killed was eminently forseeable. KD had no intention of invading Westeros before the posioning attempt on Danny.

Finally, I don't think a Dothraki invasion of Westeros is even feasible. How many ships would it take to move a 50,000 man Khalisar to Westeros? In DwD, Martin says that you can jam about 100 men in a ship. So that's 500 ships. But the Dothraki are cavalry, so what about the horses? In the middle ages, a horse transport could carry 20-30 horses. So that's another 1,500-2,500 ships for 50,000 horses. But you really need more than 1 or horse per soldier --- the mongols had 2-4 horses per soldier. So that's another 1,500-10,000 ships. And what about the women and children? Are they going to just leave them behind? Either KD has detach a substantial part of his force to guard them or bring them with. If he brings them that's more ships (maybe another 1,500). There aren't enough ships in Essos to carry a Dothraki khalisar to Westeros, and if there were there's no way KD could ever get enough money to pay for them.

I think Varys expected Viserys to die and for Danny to be drifting around the Dothraki sea forever. Illyio might not known that this was the real plan.

If as most readers think Aegon is not really Targaryen, then Varys backing him is the ultimate anti-Targ move. What better way to keep the Targs out forever than by establishing a new fake Targ dynasty?

Well said. You think the dragon eggs actually hatching took Varys and Illyrio by surprise?

My only sticking point in the DwD epilogue. He talks to Kevan like he really believes in (f)Aegon. Since Kevan is clearly a dead man, for whose benefit would Varys be lying? The "little birds?"

Who is everyone's most favorite eunuch? I'm curious.

Strong Belwas, hands down.

[Justin Amey]

I think Varys has a vision of good, stable government and his anti-Targ because the prevalence of insanity in the family is antithesis of stability.

I think Varys was not really helping Vis and Dan with the marriage to Khal Drogo. That the crazy and arrogant Viserys pissed of KD and got killed was eminently forseeable. KD had no intention of invading Westeros before the posioning attempt on Danny.

Finally, I don't think a Dothraki invasion of Westeros is even feasible. How many ships would it take to move a 50,000 man Khalisar to Westeros? In DwD, Martin says that you can jam about 100 men in a ship. So that's 500 ships. But the Dothraki are cavalry, so what about the horses? In the middle ages, a horse transport could carry 20-30 horses. So that's another 1,500-2,500 ships for 50,000 horses. But you really need more than 1 or horse per soldier --- the mongols had 2-4 horses per soldier. So that's another 1,500-10,000 ships. And what about the women and children? Are they going to just leave them behind? Either KD has detach a substantial part of his force to guard them or bring them with. If he brings them that's more ships (maybe another 1,500). There aren't enough ships in Essos to carry a Dothraki khalisar to Westeros, and if there were there's no way KD could ever get enough money to pay for them.

I think Varys expected Viserys to die and for Danny to be drifting around the Dothraki sea forever. Illyio might not known that this was the real plan.

If as most readers think Aegon is not really Targaryen, then Varys backing him is the ultimate anti-Targ move. What better way to keep the Targs out forever than by establishing a new fake Targ dynasty?

Y'all be killing with all these super "schemes with-in schemes! Varys has been shown to have the "phantom balls" to kill some one personally if he had to, If he wanted Viserys and Dany dead like you think, he would have did it many years ago. As for the Dothraki it is call "round trips"!

Backing A fake Targ would mean killing both Dany and Viserys first.

I really cant figure Varys out, he literally acts against himself all the time. I get to thinking he is pro or against a particular faction, but then have to change my mind because there is equal evidence of him helping and hurting almost everyone.

I think he is just completely impartial and giving both sides exactly 50% so he has a secure position with whoever comes out on top.

Secondly,

Varys is my Third favorite eunuch, after Grey Worm and Reek respectively.

Varys is Pro Targ, he will get ppl information and let them act or react to said info, and as long as they hurt each other, it benifit the targs little by little, but he is not above seeing the good ppl can bring to the table even if they are the biggest enemies.

A very good point that I meant to quote. Not only does he talk about cutting their tongues out, Illyrio rebukes him a little for going through them so fast.

I forgot about Reek, that dear, emasculated fellow.

Well said. You think the dragon eggs actually hatching took Varys and Illyrio by surprise?

My only sticking point in the DwD epilogue. He talks to Kevan like he really believes in (f)Aegon. Since Kevan is clearly a dead man, for whose benefit would Varys be lying? The "little birds?"

Strong Belwas, hands down.

Varys was gloating because with Kevin out of the way and Cercei back in charge, thing will be going according to his plan again.

[Doc Dynamo]

"Y'all be killing with all these super "schemes with-in schemes! Varys has been shown to have the "phantom balls" to kill some one personally if he had to, If he wanted Viserys and Dany dead like you think, he would have did it many years ago. As for the Dothraki it is call "round trips"!

Backing A fake Targ would mean killing both Dany and Viserys first."

Re Dothraki round trips; you've got to be kidding. If the Dothraki invaded with Westeros with a fraction of their forces and had to wait two-three months for additional waves(round trip to Essos remember), they would get crushed. It's called defeat in detail.

A Dothraki sea borne invasion is just not feasible. Aside from the logistical problems previously discussed consider these problems: they have no battle fleet, if the Westeros fleets intercept their transports they're toast. Dothrakis don't like sea travel (remember how miserable Danny's supporters are on the trip to Meeren?) horses don't like sea travel, so when the arrive in Westeros the Dothraki khalisar would be in no shape to fight. Would the Westerosi give them time to recover? Drogo is going to need a huge pile of gold to pay for all those ships, while he accumulates will the other khalisars leave them alone or be jumping all over his khalisar to get that gold?

I think figuring Varys' motives is a tough game, but you have to start from the most solid facts. The great plan to team up Vis and Dan with the Dothraki was really, really stupid. Why should Drogo invade Westeros to put Vis on the throne? What's in it for him?

As is turned out Drogo had no intention of invading and killed off Vis when he got pissy about it. It's hard for me to believe that Varys didn't expect this.

The actions that put Danny on her path to power: the assasination failing because Jorah switches sides and the dragon eggs hatching seem to me to be unforseeable. I mean how would he know that?

So on balance I think the whole Drogo marriage was an anti-Targ move that boomeranged on Varys. He had no need to kill Vis and Danny before this. They were irrevelant and under his observation. When Vis reaches an age where is a candidate for rule he dumps them on the Dothraki clearing the path for fake Aegon.

I have another question for people seeing Varys as pro-Targ. How do you reconcile it with Varys' stated hatred of magic? If he did forsee the dragon eggs hatching, doesn't that mean his whole anti-magic stance is BS?

[Doc Dynamo]

I think Varys and Theon should team and form a bandit group called the Brotherhood Without Bananas.

[Direwolf Blitzer]

I agree with both of you guys here, but we can't all be right...

On the one hand, yeah, if Varys wanted those kids out of the picture, why not put them on a leaky boat or something? Would be incredibly easy, I'd think, for a man with his talents. So he clearly did not want them dead.

On the other hand, the Dothraki are not a serious army. They're scary in the field, but taking a kingdom? I don't see it. No boats, no siegecraft, nothing. Not to mention that in Westeros the horsemen wear plate.

In short, Varys makes no sense. Unless he meant for Dany and VIs to somehow reconquer old Valyria or something.

[Monster_of_Mantarys]

I really don't know what to make of the lovable eunuch. Sometimes it seems like he truly does do things for "the good of the realm", but others it seems like he does them for himself (especially when he refuses to help Ned escape the dungeons, even when it would be easy for him, simply because it would turn the Lannisters against him if they ever found out it was him.) But the one thing I do believe about Varys is that he is pro-Targ. Sure selling Dany to the Dothraki may seem like a bad idea to us, but the spider is always thinking five steps ahead of everyone else. And correct me if I'm wrong, but when King Robert commanded Varys to send out the letters calling for Dany and her child's deaths, didn't he also send a letter to Ser Jorah telling him to watch for her potential killers? I may have misread that or just made it up, but I got the impression that Jorah was warned of the attackers, which allowed him to intervene with the wineseller.

As to what Doc Dynamo said above, I don't think Varys is BS'ing on the point that he hates magic, and again correct me if I'm wrong, its been awhile since I read the books, but are dragons ever explicitly stated as being "magic"? I mean in a world of giants, zombie-like monsters, the Others, and even the far-fabled unicorns of Skagos, even if dragons are stated as being magical creatures, are they truly the type of magic Varys would hate? I think he means dark magic, "Blood Magic" as the Dothraki call it. I mean after all, that is how he became a eunuch.