Was there an alternative to the Red Wedding?

[marsyao]

The Red Wedding. Stark fans see it as a horrible crime, while many Lannister fans see it as a prime example for Tywin's genius.

.

Well, Tywin Lannister was defintely behind the plot of killing Rob, but I do not think he is behind the red wedding, that would be Walter Frey's idea, Tywin simply gave his term to Frey and Bolton, if they want to be back to King's grace and receive rewards then they must kill Rob, that was it, he did not care how Frey and Bolton find a way to kill Robb

[Tynned Lannistark]

I am a Stark fan and generally think Tywin is the most overrated person in the series but even I think the RW is one of Tywin's most successful moves.

Moreover, compared to other stuff he did, this is actually not an exceptionally cruel act and it also doesn't demonstrate the petty vindictive approach he practices, of reacting with extremely brutality to every perceived slight.

This was a pure political and very calculated move, and unlike the Elia thing, I do tend to believe he did not plan for that level of killing, but actually hoped he would have plenty of hostages, including Cat.

Bottom line he got the Starks forces wiped, replacing them with allies (the Boltons and Freys), and he managed to get himself and his house not associated with the killing. It is not his house that broke guest rights.

It would not surprise me if he would have even chosen to actually punish the Freys for the RW to get popular support.

[JoeyBanana]

Yes, absolutely.

But i don't think the plot of killing Robb at the wedding could've worked with less slaughter. What do you think happens if they kill Robb and capture the other northern/riverland nobles, that their men will just go "fine then" and leave or let themselves be captured?

It's not really smart, more like common sense. Get them before they get us after we've killed Robb. They had obviously maneuvred themselves into that corner, but there was no other choice nonetheless, if they were really going to do it.

Tywin also knew this, don't be naive. Of course he was aware of what was going to happen.

[In A Coat of Gold]

ITA, from a Lannister pov. The Freys get the brunt of the blame, and the Starks are wiped out, except for Sansa, who is conveniently married to a Lannister. Makes sense from a Bolton pov, too. They get out of a losing alliance, they take control of the North, and, again, Freys take the fallout. What I don't understand is why Freys do it, as they gain nothing from it but enemies.

Or maybe I'm missing something. What do the Freys gain?

Marriages into the Bolton and Lannister lines, Riverrun, etc. They came out pretty rich if they could only stay alive.

[RainGhost]

Since Tywin died my points can be regarded as speculation, but as far as I can tell from what Tywin says to Tyrion I think this plan was somehow like this (and personally I find it valid - except for two huge factors that imo couldn't be taken into account back then)

-RW happens, the whole Stark line gets eradicated beside Karstarks, who are now allies if not from the fact that they rebelled against the Starks due to their reasons.

-Roose Bolton is appointed ward of the north, and given that all the Starks loyalists are either prisoners or bound to swear loyalty to the crown again, no one can seriously rebel.

Not when there's not a single figure all the Northmen can rise their banner for: Mallisters and Manderly are the only two Houses who can field a sufficient amount of free troups afaik, and both had relatives kept as hostages back then. The only other that could have a chance, as far as feeble, would have been the Blackwoods and an isolated Riverrun which sounds anything but convincing.

The other Northern House who can still display some power are the Boltons, so all in all there's no chance.

-In any case the North has still the Ironborn to face, eventually a wildling invasion and like the (supposedly) Stark words says, "Winter is coming".

Given how seasons work it's safe to assume that this winter will last for years, and I don't get a single element that can make me believe that after years of reaving, famine and metres of snow there would be a single northman who would willingly pick up their arms again to fight ANOTHER war when a legitimate figure to lead them is no more.

To this to skip some decades, and eventual ostilities would eventually pass by, since we can see from the dornish chapters that no one of the youngest Martells can even remember Elia well, nor has this huge bloodthirst for revenge.

There are two huge factors that Tywin could not prevent, still, and another major one which is Tywin's death and the consequent lack of a competent leader for the Lannister's campaign:

1 Surprise! Starks were not annihilated.

Zombie Catelyn is around (and I wonder if the BWB would have settled for someone lesser than Catelyn or Robb) and Winterfell's heirs are alive. Plus, Sansa's been taken away.

Now the Northerns can have a leading figure to gather around to.

Still, they have to fight Boltons, face the Ironborn and eventually wildlings... and then quickly win the war or risking a stalemate through all winter.

2 Stannis went north. I can't imagine a single way this could have been imagined, let alone prevented since it makes absolutely no sense on a militaristic perspective. I guess Stannis going to the Free Cities and coming back with a huge army was actually more possible, and even in that case the idea of invading the North would have still made not much sense, given all the winter upcoming business. But that's not what happened.

What matters is that Stannis being north means way less troubles with the Ironborn (he even manages to get his grasp on both Asha and Theon, for fucks' sake) AND a concrete way to oppose the Boltons, exactly at the appropriate timing.

If even one of these conditions wouldn't have happened, I wonder if the rebellion would have still been doable.

But the north would still never bow to Bolton, even without a Stark to rally round, not when he murdered so many northmen and when he's a scumbag. Nor would they ever bow to Tyrion the Imp. No, they wouldn't have a figure to lead them but that would just mean there would be chaos. The northern lords just wouldn't do what Bolton/Tyrion told them to do. The north is too big a place for someone to just waltz in there and say "I'm ruling you now". The Starks conquered the north bit by bit, not all at once. Tywin was thinking about the short-term elimination of a threat and not a long-term plan for ruling the north. It would have meant years and years and years of conflict in the north with no guarantee of success at the end (I suspect the Starks used magic to conquer and control the north). The IT could hardly claim to rule the north in that scenario. Maybe Tywin thought there would be more hostages - if he wanted more hostages, he should have specified. Short-term yes it was a good plan but not long-term, which is pretty much standard for all of Tywin's plans.

[Loic]

But the north would still never bow to Bolton, even without a Stark to rally round, not when he murdered so many northmen and when he's a scumbag. Nor would they ever bow to Tyrion the Imp. No, they wouldn't have a figure to lead them but that would just mean there would be chaos. The northern lords just wouldn't do what Bolton/Tyrion told them to do. The north is too big a place for someone to just waltz in there and say "I'm ruling you now". The Starks conquered the north bit by bit, not all at once. Tywin was thinking about the short-term elimination of a threat and not a long-term plan for ruling the north. It would have meant years and years and years of conflict in the north with no guarantee of success at the end (I suspect the Starks used magic to conquer and control the north). The IT could hardly claim to rule the north in that scenario. Maybe Tywin thought there would be more hostages - if he wanted more hostages, he should have specified. Short-term yes it was a good plan but not long-term, which is pretty much standard for all of Tywin's plans.

Valid points but I think we are looking at the picture by different perspectives.

Houses come and go according to the flow of the historical moment and its wars... and people and minor Houses seems to care but not that much: Mudds were beloved by the people afaik, but once they became extinct someone may still have cared about them, but no concrete actions of revolt ever happened, nothing significative on the long period at least.

House Darry was a prime example of loyalty to their respective rulers, but once the Targaryens felt all that remained was the action of some individuals - and that's because some Targ survivors were still around - while overall the whole family surrendered to the new Baratheon dinasty. If in the future House Darry will ever revolt, it will be because a new Targaryen pretender did actually show up with an actual army to back up his claim.

To resist against an enemy you need enough forces to keep up with him, otherwise you just surrender since it would be pointless to fight, if we consider a period of time that keeps on growing.

If you don't have enough men, you make alliances that will necessarly be guided by someone with the status and (hopefully) the ability necessary. By someone who represents the unifying ideals, a symbol if you want.

That's why Darry can be considered loyal to House Baratheon at the beginning of AGoT.

Their feelings are anything but love, but what else? Not enough men, no reason to unite with other old Targ loyalists since the actual Targs aren't around anymore.

Robert feasted at Darry's hall and no one lifted a finger despite any lingering Darry feeling.

Tywin had all the proper hostages he needed: Tully, Piper, Umber, Manderly, Mallister... there's a lot of big figures given that Cerwyn died and Glover were far away. I don't recall if he had even a Bracken, but still we can see that both their and Blackwood House actually surrendered.

And between the other houses, I can't see a single candidate who could be able to unite the whole North under a single banner: Mormont, Ryswell and Dustin don't strike me as Houses who can field that many men, nor had the prestige of the Starks.

And again, Ironborn, the upcoming winter and the fact that Bolton and eventually Karstark are loyalists put the Lannisters in the condition of stalling the whole North situation and deal with the other enemies, assuming that after winter the north will still want to fight.

That's why the fact that Bolton isn't loved could be regarded as irrelevant in the great scheme of things... especially if there was always the open possibility of a future Stark heir through Sansa.

The North wouldn't have liked it for sure, but as someone who lacks both a leader and an army they would have begrudgingly swallowed the pill. Jump forward to few generations, and no one would even care anymore.

Yet, the war is not over.

Why?

Because Stannis being up North means that Bolton is forced to keep his dubious friends nearby just when the wounds are still deep... and the North has an unexpected chance to side up with a 100% sure Lannister opponent with an army.

And because by now half of the North knows that Stark's heirs are still around to fight for.

The Red Wedding was supposed to remove the proper amount of enemy troops and their symbol/leader.

Due to completely unrelated reasons, it failed in both.

Tywin's plan is going to bite him in the ass because it failed due to unforeseen circumstances, unrelated to what happened at the Twins.

That's why I believe that calling the RW a wrong move is proven right only in hindsight. If all the Starks would have been wiped out and (possibly) Stannis didn't went up North, I'm pretty sure it would have worked out perfectly, only that Tywin had no way to predict what happened.

[Alaynsa Starne]

If I were Tywin, I would have captured Robb, Cat, and other high lords. I would have put Robb on trial and have him executed for crimes against the crown. I would force the high lords to give up hostages in order for them to return to their lands and rule. I would allow Cat to remain at Riverrun, but she would not be allowed to cross the Neck under any circumstances. I would install Tyrion and Sansa as lord and lady of Winterfell. I would instate Roose as Warden of the North until he died, in which case Tyrion and Sansa's heir would inherit the title. Lord knows Ramsay doesn't need to be in charge of anything, ever.

But I'm also not a political genius. Tywin might have been thinking more big picture. In a decade or so, people probably won't be griping about a boy king and his mother who were killed by the rednecks of Westeros, and even if they are the Lannister name probably wouldn't be too closely associated with it. Everyone hates the Freys most right now anyway, it seems. No one can prove that Tywin orchestrated it.

[Ramsay Gimp]

People exaggerate the damage the Lannisters will suffer due to the Red Wedding

"Now the North will want revenge!!!" :rolleyes: It's like they forget that the Starks already wanted Tywin and his family dead - Robb refused to even consider peace.

And the North's revenge will be aimed at the Freys and Boltons first, which means they will likely be spent by the time they ever come for the Lions.

[Eat My Steel]

If I were Tywin, I would have captured Robb, Cat, and other high lords. I would have put Robb on trial and have him executed for crimes against the crown. I would force the high lords to give up hostages in order for them to return to their lands and rule. I would allow Cat to remain at Riverrun, but she would not be allowed to cross the Neck under any circumstances. I would install Tyrion and Sansa as lord and lady of Winterfell. I would instate Roose as Warden of the North until he died, in which case Tyrion and Sansa's heir would inherit the title. Lord knows Ramsay doesn't need to be in charge of anything, ever.

But I'm also not a political genius. Tywin might have been thinking more big picture. In a decade or so, people probably won't be griping about a boy king and his mother who were killed by the rednecks of Westeros, and even if they are the Lannister name probably wouldn't be too closely associated with it. Everyone hates the Freys most right now anyway, it seems. No one can prove that Tywin orchestrated it.

This does seem to be a wise course of action in hind sight. Of course, Tywin couldn't have predicted his own death or Tyrion's fate as Cersei's scapegoat (I think Tywin recognized that Tyrion was a better choice to rule than his sister/Joffrey). The North would have been angry at team Bolton/Frey/Lannister anyway, but not to the level that the RW caused - that guest right thing really holds power. However, the Lannisters role would not have gone unnoticed, even after a decade or more. The North remembers. There are still houses holding true for Targaryens on the downlow since Robert's Rebellion. Tywin also couldn't have predicted the power of the Brotherhood Without Banners, eventually giving rise to Stoneheart and the lynching in the Riverlands. Cat was always intended to be taken hostage, her grief and horror was unaccountable. That said, everyone would have known the Lannisters role because of the benefit the crown gave the Freys and Boltons - not the punishment violation of guest right should have earned them.

[northwesterner]

Yes, defeat Robb in the field. That was the only way to do it. With the Tyrells and Freys and maybe Boltons alongside, I doubt even Robb and Brynden could have beaten them. The north couldn't have argued if Robb had been beaten in the field because that's fair and honourable. If they could have killed him in battle, best case scenario for Tywin. If not, take him captive and either send him to the Wall or just allow him to bend the knee if he's wiling because that's the best way to keep peace in the north - not much he can do if they take enough hostages. That would have been the end of it and the north would have been back under the control of the IT.

Instead, the entire north wants bloody vengeance for the RW and the war goes on, it's just in the shadows for the moment. Every northern House lost people at the RW. Look how Rickard Karstark reacted when his sons died honourably in battle - he wanted House Lannister exterminated. Manderly's already had Freys cooked in pies.

And yes, people do know the Lannisters were behind it. Jaime confirmed as much to Brynden and it was pretty obivous anyway because the perpetrators of the RW were rewarded rather than punished.

Yes this, and to quote the fat lord Manderly ''The north remembers, and the mummer’s farce is almost done''.