A Matter of Trust: Rheagar, Dayne and Selmy at Harrenhal

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Summary:

- Arthur Dayne lost his Harrenhal joust to Rhaegar on purpose, with the aim of Rhaegar winning the tourney.

- this would pit Barristan against Rhaegar in the final joust, which is actually not as crazy of a plan as it seems: Barry would likely hold back, lest he injure his prince.

- Rhaegar needing to win the joust may have been a last-minute plan, to salvage some part of the original Harrenhal Great Council plan (ruined by Aerys when he showed up) by showing the realm what an awesome prince and future king Rhaegar is.

- when push came to shove though, Rhaegar crowned Lyanna and ruined everything.

----

Discussion:

I might be having a brain shutdown, but I'm not sure I fully understand this quote from Barristan in ADWD as it stands:

"The Prince of Dragonstone never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that."

This is immediately after thinking that "even Rhaegar had secrets".

Is Barry only referring to the fact that Dayne was involved in whatever Rhaegar was planning at Harrenhal? If so, wouldn't it make more sense to think of Ser Oswell Whent in this context, whom Rhaegar trusted enough to have him reach out to his brother to organise the tourney? By comparison, what did Dayne contribute?

On the other hand, if Rhaegar somehow showed his trust in Dayne (but not in Barry) at Harrenhal in another way - what might that be?

A few sentences later, Barry bemoans not being a "better knight" and beating Rhaegar in the final joust, but doesn't think about Dayne in this context again (not about Arthur anyway; he gets into Ashara's story). His thought in the quote above seems unfinished.

So: Did Dayne lose his joust to Rheagar on purpose?

We like the romantic image of Rhaegar being driven by his love/fascination for Lyanna, making him somehow skilled enough to beat Yohn Royce, B Selmy AND Arthur Dayne (among others - including, not in the least, Brandon Stark, who was a super skilled horseman, being the main requirement for jousting).

And this may well be the case.

But a more cynical interpretation would go:

- crown prince organises tourney to convince the lords he should be regent

- crown prince has never won a tourney before

- crown prince meets girl he wants to crown as QoL&B, making the tourney doubly important for him

- crown prince bests the finest knights in the kingdom, and wins!

Hmm.

Rhaegar was quite skilled at arms, we hear - he just never took pleasure in it. But Harrenhal suggests not only that Rhaegar was skilled, but that he was an absolute master.

Out of his opponents, Dayne was surely the most dangerous (Selmy probably a close second). Dayne was also Rhaegar's closest friend. I'm not sure Rhaegar would have asked Dayne to lose on purpose, but Dayne may have still been privy to Rhaegar's Great Council plans and his thoughts on Lyanna and winning (each or both could constitute the "trust" element that Barristan thinks about) and so threw the joust.

The final joust: the Selmy risk

Did Barry lose to Rhaegar on purpose as well? I doubt it - he would feel even more ferociously guilty about the consequences of Rhaegar's win.

BUT: Barry is an old school Kingsguard. If Barry and Rhaegar met in a joust, Barry's legendary skill would be less relevant than it usually is, because he can't risk hurting his prince. He's old fashioned and would likely take this more seriously than most, making him a less dangerous opponent to Rhaegar.

"If I had been a better knight..." - and thrown Rheagar's ass in the dirt, instead of being such a good and dutiful Kingsguard and taking it easy on him, maybe?

Why was it important for Rhaegar to win?

If the Great Council had gone according to plan, the tourney would have been just for show.

With Aerys showing up, the GC couldn't proceed. But precisely by showing up, Aerys gave Rhaegar an opportunity to demonstrate to the lords his suitability to be regent, in contrast to his father's madness.

And what better way to cement that, than to have the prince win the joust to the cheers of the crowds?

"You were worried he was bookish? Have no fear, look at how manly and kingly he is now!"

The initial goal of the Harrenhal endeavour could thus still be advanced.

Lyanna?

It's also possible that Rhaegar only decided he "must" win the tourney after he met Lyanna. He may have confided in Dayne about this, and not in Barry - hence the secrets and trust from the Barry quote above.

I doubt it though. I don't think Rhaegar felt he had to win for Lyanna, when the plan was initially made. He only came across her while investigating the Knight of the Laughing Tree, which was well into the joust (as the KotLT had already beaten 3 knights). We don't know exactly what happened between them: whether it was admiration for her actions, attraction, fascination, prophecy-triggers, whatever. We may find out, but it's still unknown.

But if Dayne conspired with Rhaegar to fix the joust so that Rhaegar could crown Lyanna, that would make Dayne partly responsible for what followed. That's not very satisfying, poetically. Dayne was also Dornish (and Rhaegar's wife was his Princess's daughter), and his sister was a close friend of Elia's. It doesn't seem likely for Arthur to conspire in something that was surely going to shame Elia.

So I think the plan was just for Rhaegar to win, as a publicity stunt really; but he was somehow affected by Lyanna in the last few days of the joust, and crowning her was his own, fairly last-minute, decision.

[Minuteman]

Maybe. Perhaps one thing to consider is that the newest member of the KG, Jaime Lannister, who received his white cloak at the opening of the tourney was specifically ordered by Aerys not to participate in the joust despite desperately wanting to. I have been trying to assign a reason to this but hadn't considered that there may have been a plot among the others to ensure Rhaegar won. It was the only tourney Rhaegar ever entered.

[Marcel]

I have a theory that Rhaegar gave the crown of blue winter roses to Lyanna as a reprimand directed at Brandon Stark, because Brandon would have dishonored Ashara Dayne. In this case it would make sense that Arthur Dayne let Rhaegar win because he was aware of the Prince's intentions. Rhaegar could have convinced Barristan to do the same, that he should let him win because of Ashara, but without explaining his entire plan to Barristan. To this reprimand work, it should come from the Prince, because both Arthur Dayne as Barristan Selmy were king's guards, and the gesture would not have the same meaning. It would also explain why Barristan knew that Ashara had been dishonored and the reason he was certain that somehow a Stark was involved.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Maybe. Perhaps one thing to consider is that the newest member of the KG, Jaime Lannister, who received his white cloak at the opening of the tourney was specifically ordered by Aerys not to participate in the joust despite desperately wanting to. I have been trying to assign a reason to this but hadn't considered that there may have been a plot among the others to ensure Rhaegar won. It was the only tourney Rhaegar ever entered.

Well Aerys was crazy and paranoid about Tywin - taking away his heir, and then consigning him to guarding the Queen and Viserys can just be a madman's actions. Or just a way to spite Tywin.

As for the other KG, the three at the ToJ were Dayne, Whent (both already trusted by Rhaegar) and Hightower (we don't know how/why he came to Rhaegar). So maybe the KG was indeed divided between Aerys and Rhaegar the way the lords were. Still, Barry singles out Dayne as the trusted one, but then doesn't fully elaborate, that's what got me thinking.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

I have a theory that Rhaegar gave the crown of blue winter roses to Lyanna as a reprimand directed at Brandon Stark, because Brandon would have dishonored Ashara Dayne. In this case it would make sense that Arthur Dayne let Rhaegar win because he was aware of the Prince's intentions. Rhaegar could have convinced Barristan to do the same, that he should let him win because of Ashara, but without explaining his entire plan to Barristan. To this reprimand work, it should come from the Prince, because both Arthur Dayne as Barristan Selmy were king's guards, and the gesture would not have the same meaning. It would also explain why Barristan knew that Ashara had been dishonored and the reason he was certain that somehow a Stark was involved.

Ashara and Arthur are Dornish, so we don't know if they would have seen it as "dishonouring" Ashara. If she did have a fling with a Stark, it may have been either Brandon or Ned, but either way it may not have been the insult to honour that Barry sees it as.

[Minuteman]

Well Aerys was crazy and paranoid about Tywin - taking away his heir, and then consigning him to guarding the Queen and Viserys can just be a madman's actions. Or just a way to spite Tywin.

It was Cersei who got Aerys to name Jaime to the KG. It was her plan to allow them to continue to see each other, Tywin having taken her to KL as Hand leaving Jaime at Casterly Rock. Tywin was so angry about it that he resigned taking Cersei with him back to Casterly Rock leaving Jaime at KL.

[Marcel]

Ashara and Arthur are Dornish, so we don't know if they would have seen it as "dishonouring" Ashara. If she did have a fling with a Stark, it may have been either Brandon or Ned, but either way it may not have been the insult to honour that Barry sees it as.

Not all the dornish houses are equal. House Dayne is an ancient house, more akin to the first men than to the roynish. And it's unlikely that was Ned, because such an act would go against his honourable behaviour. It doesn't matter that he wasn't betrothed that time, he wouldn't risk to dishonor a woman. If he had done that, he would marry her in the next day, much like Robb did.

EDIT: Just to point why We shouldn't consider that all the dornish had the same behaviour:

4. Do all Houses of Dorne follow the first born heir law?

The vast majority, yes. May be a few stony Dornishmen in the mountains who go their own way, those least touched by the Rhoynar.

Source: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_Dorne

And from the wiki:

Stony Dornishmen live in the passes and heights of the Red Mountains. They have the most Andal and First Men blood and mostly resemble the other people of the Seven Kingdoms in look, customs and traditions. A few stony Dornishmen may follow Andal rather than Rhoynar laws of inheritance. They are brown-haired or blond with faces that are freckled or burned by the sun instead of browned. These include the Yronwoods with their blond hair and blue eyes, the yellow-haired Fowlers, and the violet-eyed Daynes.

I see no point for Rhaegar to go as far as manipulate the jousts to win the tournament, as a gesture of public relations, then to immediately ruin it by presenting Lyanna with the crown.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

It was Cersei who got Aerys to name Jaime to the KG. It was her plan to allow them to continue to see each other, Tywin having taken her to KL as Hand leaving Jaime at Casterly Rock. Tywin was so angry about it that he resigned taking Cersei with him back to Casterly Rock leaving Jaime at KL.

I don't think we're in disagreement here - that was certainly Cersei's motivation. The question though was about why Jaime wasn't allowed to joust at Harrenhal - the reason is surely Aerys' madness and paranoia; having leapt at the chance to rob Tywin of his heir and give himself a hostage against him (that's Aerys' motivation in listening to Cersei's suggestion), he then realised he would have Tywin's son with a sword in his presence (I think TWOIAF says as much?)

So I suppose he sent Jaime away back to KL both out of his paranoia, but I think also out of a desire to humble Tywin further: not only is your son mine now, but he's a glorified nanny.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Not all the dornish houses are equal. House Dayne is an ancient house, more akin to the first men than to the roynish. And it's unlikely that was Ned, because such an act would go against his honourable behaviour. It doesn't matter that he wasn't betrothed that time, he wouldn't risk to dishonor a woman. If he had done that, he would marry her in the next day, much like Robb.

They would be Stony Dornishmen, least touched by the Rhoynar, certainly. But we don't know what that means in terms of social practices, particularly for House Dayne - since Martin keeps his cards close to his chest on them.

Also, on the topic of first men: how about the example of Brandon and Barbrey? To a southron person, she was dishonoured; but there's not even a hint of that feeling in Barbrey's account, and she actively thinks of his... bloody sword.

The sex-honour connection seems to be most strongly associated with the Faith and Andals, rather than simply being "non-Rhoynish". Yet, the Rhoynish influence was strong enough in most of Dorne to overturn both the Andal cultural customs around sex, and the Faith's prescriptions.

So if we think of the Daynes as culturally being predominantly first men, with some Rhoynish influence, there's still a big question mark over whether Ashara was "dishonoured".

[Marcel]

They would be Stony Dornishmen, least touched by the Rhoynar, certainly. But we don't know what that means in terms of social practices, particularly for House Dayne - since Martin keeps his cards close to his chest on them.

Also, on the topic of first men: how about the example of Brandon and Barbrey? To a southron person, she was dishonoured; but there's not even a hint of that feeling in Barbrey's account, and she actively thinks of his... bloody sword.

The sex-honour connection seems to be most strongly associated with the Faith and Andals, rather than simply being "non-Rhoynish". Yet, the Rhoynish influence was strong enough in most of Dorne to overturn both the Andal cultural customs around sex, and the Faith's prescriptions.

So if we think of the Daynes as culturally being predominantly first men, with some Rhoynish influence, there's still a big question mark over whether Ashara was "dishonoured".

I find surprising this assessment that the dornishes wouldn't see that as a dishonor, especially for a highborn lady. Arianne Martell is not a parameter, because she is Doran's heir and her value doesn't rest on her maidenhood. The fact that paramours have a better social standing in Dorne doesn't mean that it is desirable for a highborn lady to be devalued in such manner. And, although I believe that there is a weirwood in Starfall, the simple fact that Arthur Dayne is a knight is an indication that House Dayne follows the Faith of the Seven.

Whether or not Barbrey Ryswell thinks she was dishonored is not that important. She lives in a patriarchal society with predominantly male values, where the maidenhood of a woman is essential for dynastic purposes. I am more concerned about Lord Rodrik Ryswell's opinion on this subject. We do not know in wich context Lord Ryswell presented the possibility of wedding her to Ned, it is possible that he has taken the issue concerning Brandon's act to Lord Rickard Stark.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

We'll have to wait and see I guess!

A couple more points though:

(1) we only hear about the "dishonour" as such from Selmy, who is traditional and also was (and still is) in love with the woman in question. His interpretation is suspect.

(2) Edric Dayne was named after Ned, and from his conversation with Arya, they hold Ned Stark in high esteem at least. Now that's not impossible, even if they think that Brandon "dishonoured" Ashara (Ned's not to blame) - but, taking your point about patriarchal (and feudal) values operating in this society: would you name your heir after the man whose brother "dishonoured" your sister (and your house)? Would not all Starks be anathema to the Daynes in that scenario? After all, personal slights between noble houses tend not to stay personal between the individuals involved. So if a Stark slighted Dayne honour (rather, if that's how the Daynes saw it), then the honour they do Ned, and how Edric at least speaks of him, is odd to say the least.

None of this is conclusive. I wouldn't bet money either way on it having been Ned or Brandon, or even on whether it was a dishonour or a fling.

I just wouldn't take Selmy's word for it as definitive, since he's thinking about it through he lens of 15 years of regrets, having been denied the chance to name Ashara his QoL&B and tell her he loves her. If that's the guy who says she was "dishonoured", immediately I think "hmm".

[Krugal]

I definetly think this might be the case. We've seen it before, in the tourney at Whitewalls (in the Mystery knight), where Daemon is set up to win in order for others to follow him in the upcoming rebellion. And we know that Martin likes to give us clues in the form of history repeating itself.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

I definetly think this might be the case. We've seen it before, in the tourney at Whitewalls (in the Mystery knight), where Daemon is set up to win in order for others to follow him in the upcoming rebellion. And we know that Martin likes to give us clues in the form of history repeating itself.

Yes good point. If the Tourney at Ashford does indeed hint at Sansa's potential suitors, we may well need to examine the novellas in even more detail for more hints!

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Further to that line of thought... Rhaegar was close with Maester Aemon, who was alive during the Second Blackfyre Rebellion and would likely know the full story very well from his brother Egg. So he may have suggested a faked tourney to Rhaegar, or more likely Rhaegar had the idea because he'd heard Aemon's story when he was a child.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Did Yohn Royce take a dive for Rhaegar? Unlikely. Did Brandon Stark? Even less likely. So here goes my crazy, crackpot theory: there was no conspiracy, Rhaegar Targaryen won it fair and square, 'cause he was a skilled knight and that was his day. Not unlike Ser Jorah Mormont did, when it was his day.

That's my Special Crackpot Theory. If you're mentally ready, soon to follow is my General Crackpot Theory. Ready?

"A Song of Ice and Fire" isn't, actually, rife with ever-present conspiracies, secret identities and secret pedigrees. It's not that kind of book. You guys are overdoing it.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

"A Song of Ice and Fire" isn't, actually, rife with ever-present conspiracies, secret identities and secret pedigrees. It's not that kind of book. You guys are overdoing it.

Yep, it's a book where things are as they seem, like how Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna and Ned had a bastard son with a wetnurse. And Arstan the Bold was just an old guy. And Varys is just a simpering eunuch. And Littlefinger is a harmless jokester. And Harrenhal was just a random tourney, after all. Not that kind of book, thank the sweet Rahloo.

It's fine to not see merit in a theory, but this one is hardly crackpot mate.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Yep, it's a book where things are as they seem, like how Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna and Ned had a bastard son with a wetnurse. And Arstan the Bold was just an old guy. And Varys is just a simpering eunuch. And Littlefinger is a harmless jokester. And Harrenhal was just a random tourney, after all. Not that kind of book, thank the sweet Rahloo.

It's fine to not see merit in a theory, but this one is hardly crackpot mate.

Negation of "nothing is as it seems" is not "everything is at it seems". It's "some things are as they seem". Very basic logic, really.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Negation of "nothing is as it seems" is not "everything is at it seems". It's "some things are as they seem". Very basic logic, really.

Of course, some things are. What's not logical is why you're entrusted with deciding which are and are not, with the series less than 3/4 finished :)

[corbon]

It was the only tourney Rhaegar ever entered.

Tournament in honor of Viserys' birth

Tourney at Storm's End

He didn't enter many, but he had a fantastic record when he did. And he defeated too many and too varied a list of opponents for them all to be set ups. In fact there is zero real reason to suspect that any of his jousts were set up, except that there are a lot of hard core haters out there who will do anything to find a way to run him down.

Its very simple. Just as Barristan actually tells us, he really was pretty good.

And Aerys denied Jaime the chance to joust and Harrenhal because he didn;t want Jaime winning any glory. He was getting at Tywin by naming Jaime and Jaime covering himself with glory would have reflected well on Tywin.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think Rhaegar wanted to win this joust with cheap tricks. We should compare this whole episode more to Jorah's day at the tourney of Lannisport rather than a deliberately rigged tourney.

Also note that the rules how KG should behave in tourneys in which princes of the blood participated changed somewhere between the reign of Daeron II and Aerys II (my guess is during the reign of Aegon V, as Duncan the Small and Duncan the Tall apparently rode in the same tourney, if my memory of Barristan's White Book entry is correct) from 'it is improper to ride against those we have sworn to protect' to 'it is entirely in order to risk killing a prince of the blood in a tourney mishap'.

Rhaegar didn't seem to win any tourneys because he very seldom participated in them - the only other tourneys were he rode in I remember is the Storm's End tourney, Lannisport tourney of 277 AC in honour of Viserys' birth, and I'd not be surprised if Aerys commanded to show off his skills as a jouster in front of the assembled Lords of the West. During the anniversary tourney in 272 AC Rhaegar would have been too young, I assume (being 13).

And Rhaegar's original plan at Harrenhal seems to have been to turn the tourney into a covert Great Council after it began, so I doubt he intended to enter the lists. He didn't want to become popular - he was already popular, anyway - or gather men around him to assemble an army, he wanted to gain the support of the great lords of the Realm in his attempt to move against his father.