Game 71.5

[TheMalcolm]

I voted for Lany in post #554.

[Mina Martell]

Okay, I fucked up.

I shouldn't have said anything about LC. To be honest, I just didn't self-edit and responded thoughtlessly to Gert's post, thinking it was D3 and it didn't matter anymore, and I opened my big mouth. It was a stupid move. And I'm usually more careful than that when innocent. I'd have found it scummy if I weren't me. I'm sorry. I don't know what's wrong with me.

mentat, I also noticed those "if I were the finder" posts, and thought he sounded like he was protesting just a little too much.

But mentat, didn't you find it suspicious when I suggested that LC might have been the finder? Why are you doing the same thing now?

I would also be in favour of a reveal at this point. Because, to be honest, most of the other players have already given themselves away. At least the healer threat should scare the FM off for another night.

Well, there are only two reasons that seem plausible as far as I'm concerned:

1) The killers were hunting for the finder.

2) The killers did it to send us down the wrong line of investigation.

1) Seems the more likely one to me. The way Day 2 was going, she was odds on favourite to get lynched today. That would have meant that not only Gertrude, but also two other players could have been eliminated with a pretty high degree of certainty. The only reason to deviate from that course of action would be to get rid of someone they thought was in a good position to scupper it with a reveal.

But Gert obviously wasn't the finder. Otherwise, she would have revealed on D1 or D2.

2) Is something that has been creeping forwards in my mind. By showing that Gert is innocent, it immediately makes Spidey more suspicious, which makes players who can't really be partners with Spidey (like myself) look better that we otherwise might. I'm still thinking that it's very likely that Spidey was scum, but if he weren't, then this is a possible reason.

Regarding your theory of the killers hunting for an investigated player, if the killers were concerned that a finder was going to reveal today, surely it would have made more sense for them to have tried to hit the finder last night? The act of the reveal is the one they should be looking to eliminate, since that's what would be causing them a problem. I can't comment on the precedent you bring up, since I have no knowledge of the circumstances.

I can see the killers taking out someone almost guaranteed to be investigated rather than taking a shot in the dark at a pool of equally lynchable low-lying suspicious players. Interpret the fact that I'm acting like I know the killers' minds as a scumtell if you want. The point is that Gert is a weird kill, and that's the only explanation that makes sense.

Two factors: 1) method of exception. Everybody else look better. 2) Your last opinion on Mina, which looks very opportunistic regardless of whether you parroted Pebs or Thursday. I can understand Thursday himself, since he is a player form different community and with absolutely stranger's playstyle, but I have troubles to believe that one of our most experienced players sincerely found Mina's post contradictory.

We-e-ell...you've played with Lany. Regardless of her experience, she tends to rely on gut more than logic (no offence, Lany).

Evidently, we'll have no reveal today. Too bad. It means that either our finder was Piper or it's some extremely cautious and overly optimistic player hoping to live through another night. Ok, let's hope he is right.

As promiced, I vote Lany Cassandra. I absolutely refuse to lynch Mina, LC or Pebs, who all look very innocentish to me (and now you know I was right about Gert). I can compromise on anybody else, since we have little time, but I am sure it's best variant. As for players left, I'm most suspicious of Thursday (though I'd like an opinion from anybody who actually played with him at Malazan) and Mentat and least suspicious of Kat.

Malc, as nice as it is to know that someone thinks I look innocent, you're rather confident in your own judgment this game. I know you're a "bulldog," but even for you, this is kind of strange. It makes me a little paranoid when people know players are innocent. I should know better than to use meta by now, but I remember you doing the same thing in the Christmas game. What makes you so sure that the three of us are innocent?

What do you think about this post? Considering there's no CF, doesn't it make a Lany-Spidey partnership very unlikely? And you were the one saying that you were certain of Spidey's guilt.

(Yes, it's kind of silly to question a proven vig like this. I don't care. Let me entertain my crazy conspiracy theories for a moment.)

Right now, I'm wavering between Sir Thursday, Pebble That Hides, and LCOTNW (depending on his reactions to your questions). I know I should find Kat suspicious, but can't.

I'll place my vote on Pebble That Hides, since she's a good compromise as both a potential Spidey partner and as individually suspicious. I thought her reaction to Spidey's "reveal" seemed genuine, but I dislike how she went from suspecting Gert, to being the loudest anti-Spidey champion afterward. She seemed too quick to focus on potential Spidey partners rather than look at player motivations. It isn't really in character for her. (Although, you know, maybe I should have learned my lesson by now about suspecting people based on meta.) But to be honest, there's so little information out there that I really don't know what to think.

I suppose I'd compromise on Lany, since she's so hard to read regardless of her alignment.

I'll try to reread mentat from the POV of him being a killer, now. My problem is that I've written him off as innocent since Day One, and attributed every mildly scummy thing he's said as "typical innocent mentat."

[Mina Martell]

That's pretty much it. I do quick reads when I can, post when I can. I am not emotionally involved in the game and rarey am as a Ri. I get a lot more worked up when guilty if you'll remember. I am never "detached" as am FM or any other role.

Okay.

At this point, it is very, VERY easy to narrow the finder down to two players.

LCOTNW, are you the finder, yes or no?

[House Targaryen]

One day, I'll get this vote count right.

It is day 3.

8 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Mina Martell, Pebble That Hides, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

1 vote for Lany Cassandra (TheMalcolm)

1 vote for Mina Martell (Sir Thursday)

1 vote for Pebble That Hides (Mina Martell)

5 players have not voted: Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Pebble That Hides.

[TheMalcolm]

Malc, as nice as it is to know that someone thinks I look innocent, you're rather confident in your own judgment this game. I know you're a "bulldog," but even for you, this is kind of strange. It makes me a little paranoid when people know players are innocent. I should know better than to use meta by now, but I remember you doing the same thing in the Christmas game. What makes you so sure that the three of us are innocent?

I am not sure, but I have to make some choices. I suspect you three least, so I won't support your lynchs. Today. Tomorrow new information might change my opinion.

Moreover, in case of yours it's mostly gut, but I have logical reasons to trust LC and Pebs. Pebs defended innocent Gert and LC supposed vig-killing Spidey and lynching another player. Both behaviors doesn't make sense for evils. Remember I cleared Gert mostly because of supporting LC's plan and I was right.

What do you think about this post?

Might be sincere, might be average distancing. Null tell. AFAIR, Spidey was strongly attacked at the moment already, so distancing by a partner might be expected. Even in non-CF.

[Mentat]

Okay, I fucked up.

I shouldn't have said anything about LC. To be honest, I just didn't self-edit and responded thoughtlessly to Gert's post, thinking it was D3 and it didn't matter anymore, and I opened my big mouth. It was a stupid move. And I'm usually more careful than that when innocent. I'd have found it scummy if I weren't me. I'm sorry. I don't know what's wrong with me.

mentat, I also noticed those "if I were the finder" posts, and thought he sounded like he was protesting just a little too much.

But mentat, didn't you find it suspicious when I suggested that LC might have been the finder? Why are you doing the same thing now?

Yes I did, though in reflection it's more sympish than FMish, and since there's no symp...

Anyway, I hope you'll agree with me the cat was pretty much out of the bag with those last two posts.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

Tiers:

1: mentat, Pebble

2: Kat, Mina

3: Thursday, LC

4: Malc, Me

I have already talked about mentat, so Pebbles is next.

First off, she doesn't know what she thinks (see underlined parts):

I am against going to night on general principle, but then this comes from playing far too many CF games. We should certainly try to get lynches beacuse it gives us info to look back on latter. but perhaps we allready have that with the 5 votes each?

Mina, I think I got shouted at, saying we should always try and lynch because it gives us more info to work with latter.

truth is I don't like lynching anyone on day one. Its just unfair to the player (but I reconise that as me being too nice and no place in a mafia game)

Sorry, but Pebble has never been "too nice" for mafia. Even with a CF, I can only think of one person who faught against day once lynches until last year. Also, I looked to see who had "shouted" at her, since all the players here are generally in favor of day one lynches. No one had mentioned anything. Everyone said they were against going to night, as she had said.

On day one the lynch on Spidey failed and there were two people present who could have voted and didn't. One of them was Pebble:

I can't change with a potential reveal so close. there is no time to discuss

Down to the wire on day 2, and again Pebble tried to spare Spidey from being killed (after spending here day looking for his potential partners):

I missed this. Ok Spider your plan was horrible and I can't see how it could possibly have worked. You have now addmitted to putting in a fake code and fake claiming. - I don't buy your plan. VOTE Spider

I don't expect it to remove any suspision. Its just nice to have acurate infomation. Thing is I can't hold it against Mina for hesitating and not hammering. It was an incredible amount of pressure in the last mins of the night, and we really didn't want to f up.

I still suspect you, but you don't fit Spider being guilty in the slightest. Far too much distancing in a non-CF game. So I'm gonna try and ignore my Gut on this one.

Everything says she thinks Spider guilty

Gah! trying to re-read the whole thread, while keeping up with the end and keeping my bothersum customers happy is a nightmare.

After Spider calimed a role and it went to night, he had time to think about his options. I can't believe an inocent spider who thought about things one min would half fake claim durring the night unless he was trying to backtrack from his reveal (because he was the real finder to aviod the night kill) Spider has since comeout and said he's not the real finder. - for that matter I can't really believe an evil Spider would make that claim durring the night.

there is far more advantage for an evil Spider to act the way he has than an innocent one. Claiming you would play better if your evil is BS and cos your playing bad must be innocent. you should and normally play much better when innocent or evil.

I know its putting our eggs in one basket, but I'm not gonna belive spiders innocence here. yes I admit its possible. Mafia has tought me that anyone can and occasionally does do illogical and insane stunts. but I have to make my judements the best I can with the evidence.

I believe Gert can not be Spiders partner. Spider could have picked someone else to make an alternative lych. Yes if it wasn't for Spiders actions I would still be suspious of Gert. The only reason to investigate Gert is the all eggs in one basket. Everyone who ihas some doubts to Spiders guilt and serriously saying we should investigate Gert do you beleive one of Gert or Spider must be evil? Is there any room for them both being innocent in your mind? Cos if there is would an investigation result on Spider it would settle weather we should look for Spider partners or not. but with Viging Spider we don't get a Finder PI/CI on a living player.

more to come, but I have another customer with hard drive issuses.

And then, she starts coming up with a plan to lynch someone other than Spidy:

I don't want to lynch Gert today. and I don't want her Vigged. The reason, I don't think Gert and Spider can be parteners. out of the two Spider is most likely evil. + Gert was a likely choice for last nights investigation.

If Spider is investigated tongith (not 100% convinced this is the right thing to do, having a living CI or CE result on someone else may be better) and having a result possible result of Gert would tell us a lot of info.

I think spider is too much of a distraction and should die either today / tonight. I also think he is Evil.

as to who I want lynched Vigged instead well I'm not really sure. I understand where Mina was coming from yesterday being in exactly the same possition.

Meow is still a blind spot and at some point we're gonna have to deal with him unless he starts playing more.

maybe we should lynch someone who could be either Spiders or Gerts partner for best chance of hitting an evil without definatly knowing their allingments.

I think you should die because I think you are evil. I am about as certain as you can get without a finder result.

your fake claim plan makes less sence for an innocnet than it does for a FM. Only an innocnet finder result on you is going to change my mind. Somehow I don't think we have one.

Your claim was bullshite, you had a fake code and we can't seem to get passed arguing about you.

We need to lynch / vig people we think are most likely evil. I don't think there has ever been a game where we should let Probably Evil's live another day to lynch someone who just might be evil. the fact we have a vig kill means we can consider letting the finder investigate you, if the finder thinks that info would be useful. However even if we let you live today, I really don't think Malc will tonight. which makes any finder investigation worth less, but it would give us info.

Actually i was wrong about Lany. She has not really attacked Gert at least not today. Yes she mentioned her and said she would be ok with a Gert or whoever Vig but lynch spider.

Day one Gert lany interactions where minor, yes they butted heads but Gert did back off. I still don't think Gert is evil but lany could work as her partner

lany has been pushing spider lynch today she was arround in the early day one part and if partnered would prob want to distance herself from Spider.

I can see its possible she fits into both camps.

It is important we get a lynch today. But for now I am voting Lany because she fits both. I will be back before I go to bed. I will switch to spider if there are no votes other votes on Lany.

She says it's important to get a lynch, yet switches from the favorite of Spidey who has 4 votes to me who doesn't have any votes.

Finally she is forced to vote Spidey, and her tone indicates she is not please with the decision.

Pebble that Hides

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I am feeling really crap right now, I had ment to be arround earlier but slept too long I had plan to read Mina like I read Kat last night, but my brain is foggy, not sure if I'm gonna even make it in to work tonight. Going by Gut, Mina is more likely to be guilty than Kat. they are both in my top teir so I'm gonna Vote Mina

I'm goning back to bed now. not sure how much time is left, but it can't be loads, so I porbably won't make it back before the day ends.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

I am feeling really crap right now,

Feel better soon sweetie! :grouphug:

[Kat]

Agree that the finder should reveal today. Please. Given the random spray of players I've suspected, it's fairly obviously not me. (Although maybe for game's sake I should have been more coy about that since Day 1.)

Even if it's just a guilty result on Spider, that would be helpful, since without knowing if Spider is evil or not, I'm inclined to lynch an independent evil today even though I'd otherwise lean toward lynching Pebbles. I have to tutor someone for the last hour of today, so any forthcoming information would be helpful before then.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Lany What?

I wish my brain wasn't foggy.

1. I don't like getting rid of people early in games. I know I'd be dissapointed cos my fun would be cut short if I was lynched day one. people sign up to play the game not watch it from the spoilers. thats my personal feelings I feel sorry for the player. this dose not mean I'm against lynching day 1. I used to let these feelings get in the way of playing, I got shouted at. - you say you looked to see where someone shouted at me. have you read all the spoiler threads I have played in? especially all the ones without CF?

2. on day 2 I have never been against Spider dying. If we didn't lynch him Malc was gonna vig him. where have I agued agiant that plan? I was against lynchign Gert. I agrred with LC it woulod be helpful to have lych tains to other poelpe. insterad of just rushig a lynch on spider with nothing to look back on.

have you acutllay read my posts? or are you just looking for stuff to twist?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I'm relly going now. hda to respnd to lanys acqsations first.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

Lany What?

I wish my brain wasn't foggy.

1. I don't like getting rid of people early in games. I know I'd be dissapointed cos my fun would be cut short if I was lynched day one. people sign up to play the game not watch it from the spoilers. thats my personal feelings I feel sorry for the player. this dose not mean I'm against lynching day 1. I used to let these feelings get in the way of playing, I got shouted at. - you say you looked to see where someone shouted at me. have you read all the spoiler threads I have played in? especially all the ones without CF?

2. on day 2 I have never been against Spider dying. If we didn't lynch him Malc was gonna vig him. where have I agued agiant that plan? I was against lynchign Gert. I agrred with LC it woulod be helpful to have lych tains to other poelpe. insterad of just rushig a lynch on spider with nothing to look back on.

have you acutllay read my posts? or are you just looking for stuff to twist?

I meant this game. It read to me like you were saying it happened now. I didn ot realize you were talking "history"

My concern was that Spider was an evil killer guard and would block Malc. I said that. You suspected him, yet twice tried to prevent his lynch. Malc had already confirmed his kill on Meow during the time you were trying to lynch me, so a Spidey kill would not have happened.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

I'm relly going now. hda to respnd to lanys acqsations first.

What about Mina's?

[LCOTNW]

Potential partners for Spider - Pebbles, Mina, Kat

Not sure: Lany

Unlikely partners for Spider - Sir Thursday, Mentat, Malc

Pebbles and Mina have the obvious connection. I haven't played with Pebbles much, so she is harder to read. I did not like the last minute attempt to switch the lynch yesterday. I've played with Mina a few times, but not enough to know what she looks like as evil, and I am not very good at that sort of thing anyway. Kat and Lany I tend to find suspicious because of our differing playstyles. They tend to poke rather than reason, which does not mean they are evil, but it makes it harder for me to read them. For example, I had the feeling that the "lynch Gert and Spider so as to not put all our eggs in one basket" felt like she could be cutting a partner loose and trying to take a potential CI along for the ride (plus buy an extra game day). I think it was Mina who finally made a case against Gert. Kat's vote for Spidey also felt odd, like she had given up on trying to divert the lynch. Lany's post #382 gives me pause, though. For Lany to be Spider's partner she definitely cut him loose there (and the subsequent posts). Lany's vote on Mina could be opportunistic, but if we assume Spidey was guilty, then Mina is a reasonable choice. I didn't like Kat's resistance to the idea of building a train on someone other than Spidey. I realize she assumed it was being too tunneled on Spidey/partners, but it would have been an opportunity to discuss other people in depth, regardless.

If Spidey is innocent (or independent of Spidey)

Most suspicious: Sir Thursday, Lany, Mentat

Less suspicious: Mina, Pebbles, Kat

Not an option: Malc

If Spidey was innocent, then Mina and Pebbles look much better. Kat is not partnered with Mentat. She doesn't seem objectively scummy or connected with anyone. Even the connection to Spider is not real strond. That narrows it down to the other 3 in my top tier. Sir Thursday is there sort of by default as he is hard to read. If Spidey and Piper were both innocent, then he was way off on day 1. If Spider is innocent then Mina looks better, so his pursuit of Mina today is also off. At the same time, he is using objective methods and doesn't know Mina or anyone else well enough to use subjective methods.

[Mina Martell]

I am not sure, but I have to make some choices. I suspect you three least, so I won't support your lynchs. Today. Tomorrow new information might change my opinion.

Moreover, in case of yours it's mostly gut, but I have logical reasons to trust LC and Pebs. Pebs defended innocent Gert and LC supposed vig-killing Spidey and lynching another player. Both behaviors doesn't make sense for evils. Remember I cleared Gert mostly because of supporting LC's plan and I was right.

Okay. That makes some sense.

It's just that you keep on calling attention to the fact that you were right about Gert being innocent, as if that should give you brownie points and make us trust your judgment. (Even though you thought Gert was guilty and Lany innocent on Day One--to the point where you voted Gert over Spidey--so obviously you're not infallible.) I also think that of all the surviving players, you had BY FAR the lamest excuse for why Gert was night-killed (because the killers agreed with your penetrating insight and thought she was so obviously innocent? WTF???). Particularly since if you were evil, you'd know she was innocent, and could kill her to make yourself look good.

I can't get over the fact that you killed a likely investigation target rather than an actual finder suspect during the last finder game. I know it's ridiculous, because you're a proven vig. Still, it's possible that the evils have at least one role. I'll try to ignore my paranoia for today.

Might be sincere, might be average distancing. Null tell. AFAIR, Spidey was strongly attacked at the moment already, so distancing by a partner might be expected. Even in non-CF.

You know, I never did that timeline I promised for the sequence of serious Day One suspicions, but here's how it starts:

1-Spidey makes his terrible drunken case on Piper.

2-Pebble and Gertrude dismiss it as silly, but don't say that they suspect him.

3-I vote for Gertrude for the gender slip. (It's a semi-serious vote...and I'm actually surprised no one made more of the fact that I left it on Gert after people began suspecting her for other reasons. But something did seem off about her reactions.)

4-Gert voices suspicion of Lany, and tosses out Lany and Kat as a scumteam.

5-mentat expresses suspicion of Gert and Sir Thursday for over-the-top RP, and votes for Sir Thursday.

6-Piper votes TheMalcolm for feeling the need to post while drunk.

7-mentat votes Piper for Piper's lame vote.

8-Sir Thursday expresses suspicion of Ser Spidey and Piper for "addressing the killers" (which is ridiculous, IMO, although it fits with the kind of scumtells Thursday seems to look for), and votes Ser Spidey.

9-Lany votes for Spidey for his Piper case.

It's a very easy point to attack someone for, and could be the behaviour of an opportunistic FM. But Lany was the second vote on Spidey. In other words, she's unlikely to be his partner cutting ties so early, particularly since she could have gone after Piper instead.

(Hmm, maybe I'll continue with this timeline afterward. It might help spot potential Spidey partners.)

Yes I did, though in reflection it's more sympish than FMish, and since there's no symp...

Anyway, I hope you'll agree with me the cat was pretty much out of the bag with those last two posts.

Oh, no arguments there. Not saying I find it particularly suspicious on its own, just wondering where the inconsistency came from. I agree 100% with your assessment of LCOTNW--he's playing either like an FM or like a finder.

[TheMalcolm]

Malc had already confirmed his kill on Meow during the time you were trying to lynch me, so a Spidey kill would not have happened.

I've clearly stated several times I would kill Spidey if he won't be lynched. I confirmed it even after I sent my final decision on Meow (which was final in a sense that I didn't want to kill Pebs or Kat any longer) - you should know better than others that our rules allows to change provisional even after the end of day.

You look worse and worse every minute, Lany.

[LCOTNW]

Malc - why are you not willing to vote Pebbles? Just because she defended Gert?

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

I've clearly stated several times I would kill Spidey if he won't be lynched. I confirmed it even after I sent my final decision on Meow (which was final in a sense that I didn't want to kill Pebs or Kat any longer) - you should know better than others that our rules allows to change provisional even after the end of day.

You look worse and worse every minute, Lany.

I was just going by the quotes in the thread and that was the last one you posted. Not being in your home with you, I have no way of knowing of you were still on-line ot not.

And for that, I look worse? tell me, why would the FM leave a CI alive? especially when they killed a possible lynch target?

(and yes, this is lack of detachment and a does of OMGUS, becuase you do. You are always so sure of yourself and so arrogant and yet the majority of the time you are wrong)

[Mina Martell]

Gah!

LCOTNW, are you the finder? Yes or no?

Feel better soon, Pebble.

I...don't know. I agree that Lany's case on her misrepresented a couple of things--I had called her on her willingness to lynch on Day One, because during the last game she was reluctant to lynch without proof. Everyone keeps on making very innocent-sounding comments. Whoever the FM is/are, he/she/they is/are playing very well (unless Ser Spidey was an FM).

What does Pebble play like when evil?