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[Bran Vras]

Edit: Since I submitted this a week ago to the moderators, I decided to make it part of a series of three posts

A Tale of Red and Black

Here is how Mance tells his story:

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“The black wool cloak of a Sworn Brother of the Night’s Watch,” said the King-beyond-the-Wall. “One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow-cat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?” He chuckled. “It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me.” He swept the cloak back over his shoulders. “But at the Shadow Tower, I was given a new wool cloak from stores, black and black, and trimmed with black, to go with my black breeches and black boots, my black doublet and black mail. The new cloak had no frays nor rips nor tears . . . and most of all, no red. The men of the Night’s Watch dressed in black, Ser Denys Mallister reminded me sternly, as if I had forgotten. My old cloak was fit for burning now, he said.

Here are my thoughts about this story.

1) What was a cog (large ship) doing in the Bay of Ice? There is only Bear Island to trade with. Jorah's Mormont story tells us that little came to Bear Island, which in turn had little to offer to traders. It was most likely a slaver's ship, like the one Jorah sold poachers to.

2) We know that the rangers were far from the Shadow Tower. It is not said whether the wildlings were along The Frozen Shore. But this coast is not easy to reach from the Wall. The area is reputedly inhabited by cannibals – but we have yet to see any.

3) How could Mance have known that the silk originated from Asshai? The wildlings have never heard about that place. If the silk  was found in a wreck, nobody could have told the wisewoman. At best, it might be common knowledge that red silk comes from Asshai in certain civilized places of the Seven Kindoms, but probably not at the Wall, where Mance had returned only for a short time. (and I find no evidence that red silk comes commonly from Asshai anyway). I see two possible explanations in 4) and 5) below.

4) Was the silk exchanged for slaves? We know that Harma Doghead and the Lord of Bones raid for silk. So wildlings would be willing trade it.

5) Was the grandmother from Asshai herself? (that would echo the story of maggy the frog and Sybill Spicer)

6) It seems to me that Mance is under a charm of the wisewoman and can't get rid his cloak willingly (see below Mance and the ruby).

7) Note the continuity through the female line (daughter, mother, grandmother). Obviously matriarchal inheritance.

8) The daughter did not reappear afterwards (and not in the host that Mance assembled, where nobody came from the Frozen Shore, I believe). Where is she?

9) Who were the rangers from the Shadowtower who brought Mance to the wise woman. Was Qhorin Halfhand there? How is it that those rangers knew the wisewoman? What happened when they dealt with her previously? Did she tend to Qhorin's hand? (it's off topic, but I have a theory that Qhorin watched into the flame shortly before he died, a sorcery that he learnt perhaps that from the wisewoman.)

Red silk appears from time to time in the book (the complete list of occurences is not very long, but I'll spare you that. Silks of all colours appear many times). By far the most obviously relevant is the following (ACoK, prologue):

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As ever, she wore red head to heel, a long loose gown of flowing silk as bright as fire, [...]“There are truths in this world that are not taught at Oldtown.” Melisandre turned from him in a swirl of red silk and made her way back to the high table, where King Stannis and his queen were seated. [...]Red silk, red eyes, the ruby red at her throat, red lips curled in a faint smile as she put her hand atop his own, around the cup.

So the Red Lady from Asshai wears red silk permanently. Note that Mance always wore his cloak as KIng-beyond-the-Wall... But when he was captured and sentenced to death.

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Mance Rayder wore only a thin tunic that left his limbs naked to the cold. They could have let him keep his cloak, Jon Snow thought, the one the wildling woman patched with strips of crimson silk.

We never saw the cloak again.
I wondered whether Melisandre had recognized the silk on Mance's cloak, and if it was the reason for her decision to save him from Stannis. But I saw no sign of that when I reread her chapter. However, the lady in red silk took control of Mance by giving him the a magical ruby.

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“The glamor, aye.” In the black iron fetter about his wrist, the ruby seemed to pulse. He tapped it with the edge of his blade. The steel made a faint click against the stone. “I feel it when I sleep. Warm against my skin, even through the iron. Soft as a woman’s kiss. Your kiss. But sometimes in my dreams it starts to burn, and your lips turn into teeth. Every day I think how easy it would be to pry it out, and every day I don’t. Must I wear the bloody bones as well?”

There is another instance of a black cloak with red silk (noted here), Young Griff has been prepared by Lemore to meet the Golden Company:

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When the lad emerged from the cabin with Lemore by his side, Griff looked him over carefully from head to heel. The prince wore sword and dagger, black boots polished to a high sheen, a black cloak lined with blood-red silk.

I noticed the similarity before I did a systematic search for red silk. I thought at the time that the cloak was a typical Targaryen emblem and that Mance's cloak was a subtle sign of Mance's ambition to take the Iron Throne. I am not sure anymore. But all this raises questions about the forces at work behind both Aegon and Mance's attempts at kingship.

There is more about the Aegon/Mance similarity. They both have rubies with them.

Mance:

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Melisandre spoke softly in a strange tongue. The ruby at her throat throbbed slowly, and Jon saw that the smaller stone on Rattleshirt’s wrist was brightening and darkening as well. “So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul,” the red priestess said. “This man will serve you faithfully. The flames do not lie, Lord Snow.”

(How ironic that the man of the story the most dedicated to freedom ends up with no free will of all.)

Aegon, while being prepared to meet the Golden Company:

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At his throat he wore three huge square-cut rubies on a chain of black iron, a gift from Magister Illyrio.

I suspect that the rubies and/or the cloak were important to convince the Golden Company to go along with Aegon's plan of invading the Seven Kingdoms. (Read the scene: it's hardly believable that Aegon could have convinced the GC so easily).

Was the red and black cloak of help for Mance to become King Beyond the Wall? In her chapter, Melisandre seems to recall having been a slave in her past. Could it be that she originated from beyond the Wall (Jon mistook her for Ygritte at a point)?

Edited by Bran Vras, 17 March 2012 - 06:13 PM.

[Bran Vras]

Second post in a series of three.

The King of the Clans

Here is the second in a series of three posts on Mance Rayder. Like Stannis had to do, I have to make a long detour through the mountain clans to reach Mance in Winterfell.

We met them first with Bran in ASoS. But let's begin with ADwD, Stannis asks Jon

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“How many clans are you speaking of?”
“Two score, small and large. Flint, Wull, Norrey, Liddle ... win Old Flint and Big Bucket, the rest will follow.”

There are few more, Harclay, Knotts, etc. So the Flints and the Wulls (The Wull is Big Bucket) are the dominant ones. Let's look at those two.

The Wulls:

Jon to Stannis:

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“The Wull. He has the biggest belly in the mountains, and the most men. The Wulls fish the Bay of Ice and warn their little ones that ironmen will carry them off if they don’t behave. To reach them Your Grace must pass through the Norrey’s lands, however. They live the nearest to the Gift and have always been good friends to the Watch. I could give you guides.”

The passage in bold are of interest. We'll return to them later.

The Flints:

When Maester Aemon sent birds to the whole North. Here is the list of destinations:

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To the Umbers and the Boltons, to Castle Cerwyn and Torrhen’s Square, Karhold and Deepwood Motte, to Bear Island, Oldcastle, Widow’s Watch, White Harbor, Barrowton, and the Rills, to the mountain fastnesses of the Liddles, the Burleys, the Norreys, the Harclays, and the Wulls, the black birds brought their plea.

Despite being a most important clan, the Flints have no maester. Since Roose Bolton says:

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The maesters will tell you that King Jaehaerys abolished the lord’s right to the first night to appease his shrewish queen, but where the old gods rule, old customs linger. The Umbers keep the first night too, deny it as they may. Certain of the mountain clans as well, and on Skagos ... well, only heart trees ever see half of what they do on Skagos.

I suspect the Flints are among those who kept the first night. Another detail of interest: Old Flint mentions his dungeons and so lives probably  in a stone keep and not a wooden one like the Glovers. The current Starks have a Flint ancestor as Bran recalls

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” His father’s mother’s mother had been a Flint of the mountains. Old Nan once said that it was her blood in him that made Bran such a fool for climbing before his fall. She had died years and years and years before he was born, though, even before his father had been born.

and Jon concurs and notes the overpopulation problem of the clans in Winter (we'll return to the climbing part).

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It was a tale that any northmen knew well. “My father’s grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother’s side,” Jon told her. “The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again.”

When one reflects that the clans live near the Gift, an empty plain, it's a bit curious.

The Clans and the Starks

Bran recalls in ASoS:

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Lord Wull came to Winterfell once, to do his fealty and talk with Father, and he had the buckets on his shield.

and Jon in ADwD:

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Old Flint stomped his cane against the ice. “Wards, we always called them, when Winterfell demanded boys of us, but they were hostages, and none the worse for it.”

So the two main clans had to prove their loyalty to Winterfell, clearly signs of a recent troublesome history. But the current loyalty of the clans to the Starks seems unquestionable. In ASoS, a Liddle says:

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“When there was a Stark in Winterfell, a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her name-day gown and still go unmolested, and travelers could find fire, bread, and salt at many an inn and holdfast. But the nights are colder now, and doors are closed. There’s squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers.”
[...]
“It was different when there was a Stark in Winterfell. But the old wolf’s dead and young one’s gone south to play the game of thrones, and all that’s left us is the ghosts.”

Here is Roose Bolton in ADwD:

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His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you [Ramsay].[...] Galbart Glover’s maester had claimed the mountain clans were too quarrelsome to ever band together without a Stark to lead them.

The clans and the wildlings

Thee clans do not belong to the feudal world, and don't use the titles like lords etc. They follow the old gods.

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Jon turned to Melisandre. “My lady, fair warning. The old gods are strong in those mountains. The clansmen will not suffer insults to their heart trees.”

Amongst the clans, those who live the closest to the Wall, just on the border of the Gift, seem to be the Norreys and the Flints. So they are the more exposed to the raiders. Here is their conversation with Jon about  making wildlings settle in the Gift.

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“Lord Snow,” said The Norrey, “where do you mean to put these wild-lings o’ yours? Not on my lands, I hope.”
“Aye,” declared Old Flint. “You want them in the Gift, that’s your folly, but see they don’t wander off or I’ll send you back their heads. Winter is nigh, I want no more mouths to feed.”
[...]
The Norrey hawked and spat. “As well make peace with wolves and carrion crows.”
“It’s peaceful in my dungeons,” grumbled Old Flint. “Give the Weeping Man to me.”
“How many rangers has the Weeper killed?” asked Othell Yarwyck. “How many women has he raped or killed or stolen?”
“Three of mine own ilk,” said Old Flint. “And he blinds the girls he does not take.”
“When a man takes the black, his crimes are forgiven,” Jon reminded them. “If we want the free folk to fight beside us, we must pardon their past crimes as we would for our own.”

Except the latter part, which concerns the group of wildlings led by the Weeper, and that Mance dislikes as well, I see no hate between the clansmen and the wildlings in general. Just some healthy defiance (compare to the hate of the Umber for the wildlings). Definitely the Norrey and the Flints hate the Weeper (my theory is that is because the Weeper might not follow the Old Gods).

Two important things have been mentioned already. One concerns the fact that the Wulls fish the Bay of Ice and frighten their children with tales of Ironmen. So the Wulls do not frighten their children with tales of the Wildlings but with tales of Ironborn who are much farther removed. Hence wildlings are not traditional enemies of the Wulls. Moreover, if the Wulls fish the Bay of Ice, they can reach the Frozen Shore and go beyond the Wall. So I suspect that the Wulls and the Wildlings have relations.

About the Flints, there is this interesting detail from Bran in ASoS, already quoted in bold above: The Flints are climbers. Hence, they can possibly climb the Wall. From where did Jarl come from already? We are never told. In any case he became Val's lover.

Conclusion: the clans do not fear the wildlings, and have possibly contacts with them.

The clans and Mance

When Mance tells Jon about his wife, he says:

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I met her on my return from your father’s castle.

The clans live between Winterfell and the Wall. Are Dalla and Val from the Mountain clans? Val says "My Lord" instead of the more common "M'lord". If Val was from the clans, she had some authority to convince Tormund that he would be welcome south of the Wall in ADwD. (Little problem: the fact that Val seemed very at ease beyond the Wall when she sought Tormund.) I am tempted to believe that Val is a Flint.

Mance came twice to Winterfell. The first time, he was still a brother of the Night's Watch and came with the Lord Commander. Probably important matters were discussed. Perhaps, this

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His lord father had once talked about raising new lords and settling them in the abandoned holdfasts as a shield against wildlings. The plan would have required the Watch to yield back a large part of the Gift, but his uncle Benjen believed the Lord Commander could be won around, so long as the new lordlings paid taxes to Castle Black rather than Winterfell. “It is a dream for spring, though,” Lord Eddard had said. “Even the promise of land will not lure men north with a winter coming on.”

In any case, Mance might have learnt a lot about the clans, the Gift, the Starks during his visit to Winterfell. He might have gotten the idea of gaining the clans to his cause. The culture of the clans seems similar to the wildlings'. Note Mance says, about himself, that

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A man who has climbed the Wall half a hundred times can climb in a window easy enough.

What did Mance do the fifty times he went south of the Wall? I don't believe it was about stealing women.

When Jon asks for a wet nurse for (what was believed to be) Mance's son. The Norrey and Old Flint came in person and provided each a wet nurse. Here they are at the wedding of Alys Karstarck.

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Old Flint and The Norrey had been given places of high honor just below the dais. Both men had been too old to march with Stannis; they had sent their sons and grandsons in their stead. But they had been quick enough to descend on Castle Black for the wedding. Each had brought a wet nurse to the Wall as well. The Norrey woman was forty, with the biggest breasts Jon Snow had ever seen. The Flint girl was fourteen and flat-chested as a boy, though she did not lack for milk. Between the two of them, the child Val called Monster seemed to be thriving.

So Old Flint and the Norrey were too old to march with Stannis, but they came at once to Castle Black. How is it that Alys Karstarck's marriage to a Thenn is so important? My guess is that they came for (what was believed to be) Mance's son and perhaps for Val. Whether they knew the Thenns is an open question.

How could have Mance won the clans to his cause? Here are two clues. The clans are quarrelsome:

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Clan champions fight with huge two-handed greatswords, while the common men sling stones and batter one another with staffs of mountain ash.

When Mance, in the guise of the Lord o' Bones, challenged Jon in combat (ADwD). Here was his weapon of choice.

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Instead he asked for a two-handed sword.

The other clue comes from Jon's advice to Stannis:

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The clans have not seen a king since Torrhen Stark bent his knee. Your coming does them honor.

They might have been honored by the coming of a King-beyond-the-Wall who knew a thing or two about fighting their champions, and thus earned their support.

We know how the leaders of the clans are called by their people: The Wull, The Norrey, The Liddle etc and even Eddard Stark becomes "The Ned" in their parlance. Jon and Mance had a conversation about how to call Mance when they met (ASoS), here is what Mance said.

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I’m Mance to most, The Mance to some.

It seems to me that Stannis' army will take the cause of the bard in Winterfell.

Edited by Bran Vras, 17 March 2012 - 05:27 PM.

[Bran Vras]

Third post in the series.

The Dornishman's wife

The third theory will not be well argumented. It's only here because I like it. The speculations will be wilder than in the previous two theories.

Let's start with Mance's accession to the Kingship-beyond-the-Wall.

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When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they’d sooner fight than follow.

In this thread, FanTasy suggested

FanTasy, on 11 March 2012 - 09:02 AM, said:

[...]
I suspect Qhorin was well aware of what was asked of a Nights Watch man if he was caught and wanted to live: to kill his brothers
Sam is hinting in his chapters at the awful thing wildlings do when a black brother is caught, but never goes into specifics.
So it might be this: crows that flew from the Wall and wanted to live had to kill their brothers.

To be accepted among the wildlings, which brother had Mance to kill?

Here is my suggestion. It's the Lord Commander himself that preceded the Old Bear: One Qorgyle, from Sandstone in Dorne. Hence Mance's favourite song.

What do we know about Qorgyle? Not even his first name. When Oberyn approaches King's Landing with half the nobility of Dorne, among the banners:

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House Qorgyle of Sandstone, three scorpions black on red.

Denys Mallister was old enough to hope to become Lord Commander himself when Qorgyle was elected. He said

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When Lord Qorgyle was chosen, I told myself, ‘No matter, he has been longer on the Wall than you have, your time will come.’

Denys Mallister had been commander of the Shadow Tower for thirty three years. So Qorgyle had been on the Wall for at least as long. If we believe in the song, he might have been sent to the Wall for having killed his wife's lover. Mance went to Winterfell with Qorgyle when Jon was young boy, but old enough to make pranks with snowmen. Let's say about ten years ago. (We might have a way to learn about Qorgyle through... Oberyn Martell who was fostered at Sandstone, at about thirty years ago, plausibly when Lord Qorgyle was still there.)

What clues do we have that Mance could have killed Qorgyle? He told Jon in ADwD:

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“I could visit you as easily, my lord. Those guards at your door are a bad jape. A man who has climbed
the Wall half a hundred times can climb in a window easy enough. But what good would come of killing you? The crows would only choose someone worse.”

We know that Mance went to Winterfell with Lord Qorgyle (ASoS)

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You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell.

The presence of Mance is significant. He was a ranger from the Shadow Tower, and not part of the usual entourage of Lord Qorgyle. Hence Mance was probably more than just a guard, and played a specific role in the visit to Winterfell.

Here is an additional speculation. When Qorgyle went to Winterfell he plotted something with Lord Stark. The plan might have already involved Mance. Perhaps, an arrangement was made between Qorgyle and Mance, similar to the one between Jon and Qhorin.
Mance killed Qorgyle, and thus gained enough prestige to become King-beyond-the-Wall. The plot was to move the wildlings to this side of the Wall, on the Gift, and thus stop the raidings. It's just an idea. It resonates somewhat with Lord's Stark analysis. Here is Jon in ADwD:

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His lord father had once talked about raising new lords and settling them in the abandoned holdfasts as a shield against wildlings. The plan would have required the Watch to yield back a large part of the Gift, but his uncle Benjen believed the Lord Commander could be won around, so long as the new lordlings paid taxes to Castle Black rather than Winterfell. “It is a dream for spring, though,” Lord Eddard had said. “Even the promise of land will not lure men north with a winter coming on.”

But Lord Stark had in mind men from the South, not wildlings. (Edit: and one has to recall that Eddard did not recall Mance when he came back to Winterfell, and that Benjen never met Mance. So Mance did not plot with the Starks in Winterfell.)

Sometimes, I think that Mance knew that Jon was a false deserter. Consider again the story of the visit to Winterfell:

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"[...] It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath.”
“I remember,” said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes . . . “You swore not to tell.”

Isn't it a hint that Mance has understood Jon's secret?

In any case, I'd really like to know more about House Qorgyle, which is practically never mentioned in the Dorne chapters. When Balon Swann comes to Sunspear, he meets almost all the nobility of Dorne (either on the way, or at Sunspear), but not the Qorgyles. There might be an oblique reference by Reznak mo Reznak in Meereen, but that's debatable.

When I read ASoS, I admired Mance as a brilliant anarchist. Those three posts have painted him successively as an agent manipulated by sorceresses, as a King supported by the mountain clans, and finally as a man of duty and self-sacrifice, perhaps even a Stark loyalist. I am not sure know how to reconcile all these ideas.

Edited by Bran Vras, 18 March 2012 - 03:19 AM.

[The King of Worms]

So many ideas in these posts I don't even know how where to start. Your ideas really show us how rich and complex GrrM's work is. I don't think GrrM wastes words or just throws anything in. Every song, story, minor character, legend... it all seems to be connected to something bigger that's part of the main plot.
So I agree that Mance's story about the old wisewoman is significant, I'm not sure if the red silk sewn on his cloak is actually binding fire-magic or not. I thought it was just Mance's way of explaining why he couldn't live as NW anymore... the red sewn into the cloak was emotionally important to him because it was a gift from someone who saved his life, but the Nights Watch was so rigid in their beliefs and ways they would not even let him have a remembrance of this woman. But maybe there is more to it...?
I too noticed a lot of the clues GrrM leaves us about the northern clans and houses already being tied by blood to those clans on the other side of the Wall. I recall Tormund Giantsbane telling Jon stories about how he had sex with a she-bear... could it be that he carried off a Mormont girl. He is also the Giantsbane so I'm assuming that has to do with warring against the Umber. He brags about how tall and strong his kids are... could his kids be Umbers or Mormonts?
I think you're right about The Flint and The Norrey coming to the wedding. They apparently were not shocked by what seemed to others to be an unprecedented type of marriage between House noble and wildling families, and showed respect to Mance's "memory" by bringing the wet nurses for his boy.
This is a strong hint that Mance is a Flint or a Norrey. ANd if the Starks and Flints are related like Old Nan told Bran once, then Mance and Jon maybe are distant cousins.
All pretty interesting stuff. It seems that Jon's ideas of bringing the wildlings and other Northmen together may not be exactly brand new, and maybe this was an idea that Benjen and Ned had talked about. Mance's interest in WInterfell may be personal too. He could be aware of a family connection to the Starks. Or maybe he is aware there was once a whole clan of Starks north of the Wall that were scattered and now forgotten. The Stark blood could be the reason for all the wargs that live among the wildlings. Those graves he was digging up for the Horn of Winter could be ancient Stark crypts. The fake horn was destroyed, but maybe Mance is still searching for it in Winterfell's crypts.
These are all new thoughts I just had from reading your post. I'm just kind of taking some of the puzzle pieces you gave me and arranging them in my own way. I'm pretty sure that those crypts north of the wall are related to winterfell and an ancient line of forgotten Starks.

[Black Crow]

An awful lot of food for thought indeed. At the risk of stating the blindingly obvious Mance is up to something and I think that the only useful conclusion we can draw is that its not what he says it is and that he's almost certainly playing two sides at once. There certainly appears to be a connection as I outlined on the previous thread with Bloodraven and co. but the Mel connection has to be significant as well. It would have been so much easier for her to consign him to the flames without going through that charade with the glamour, so why is she trusting him?

The cloak I feel is significant in that it is both red and black - fire and darkness - signifying that he is neither one nor the other.

[bemused]

Bran Vras...I don't know why you say that Mance has no will of his own... He must have agreed to the glamour, and he only wears the ruby when using the glamour. I do think that the ruby works on him in other ways ( he mentions dreaming of Mel's kiss..but we don't know if she has actually seduced him ,or if the ruby insinuates the the idea into his dreams.. and we don't know if his mentioning it is just him letting her know that he's aware of it ) Mance has always shown a fascination with WF , and may know he shares some Stark blood. He's always appeared to have an agenda of his own. I'm not sure that Mel is using him any more than he is using her.

ETA: As for the bit about him thinking of prying out the ruby , but not doing it. That doesn't necessarily mean he hasn't the power to do it. If he were suddenly seen to be alive at that juncture , it would likely mean the death of many more of his people and perhaps himself as well . It may be a considered decision on his part that prevents him.

And I also don't think you can assume that the Wildlings wouldn't have heard of Asshai. The wildlings do trade , do raid ( both ways of gaining knowledge  ) and have a bard-like oral tradition.

Silk may originate in Asshai , and the particular red may originate in Asshai.. as with Purple and Phoenicia in our world.

Ships get blown astray and wrecked .

Mel knows that Jon is important , but not entirely why..she may have had similar visions regarding Mance ..and reason to try to befriend both. But I just feel somehow , that neither one will end up being in her pocket , or completely allied with her agenda.I feel that it's Mel who will have to undertake a major re-evaluation .

ETA: Maybe Qorgyle fathered Mance in his early days on the Wall..and though I think it's probably misleading to try to associate everyone with the odd similar physical characteristic...doesn't Mance have a widow's peak ? ...maybe he's distantly related to Oberyn...
on the other hand some things are just coincidences. Some things may connect , but many more will not.

Edited by bemused, 17 March 2012 - 06:33 PM.

[brashcandy]

Bran, I love your suggestion that Mel could have come from beyond the wall, and I do think it's credible that both Qhorin and Mance have been operating under the influence of the Red God for a time (or playing both sides). What I find interesting is when Mance and the other rangers went to find the wisewoman she was "dead" and they were taken care of by her daughter. Was the old woman really dead, or had she gone somewhere else. Was the old woman actually the young girl wearing a glamor to appear younger for some reason?

Just a thought: Melisandre herself might be very very old.

Anyways, if Mel is from beyond the wall it could explain why her powers are stronger there:

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The carved chest that she had brought across the narrow sea was more than three-quarters empty now. And while Melisandre had the knowledge to make more powders, she lacked many rare ingredients. My spells should suffice. She was stronger at the Wall, stronger even than in Asshai. Her every word and gesture more potent, and she could do things that she had never done before. Such shadows as I bring forth here will be terrible, and no creature of the dark will stand before them.

We also know that Mel was taken very early as a slave at the Red Temple, and only seems to remember snatches of her past in the name "Melony" and "Lot seven".

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Danger to her own person was the first thing she learned to see, back when she was still half a child, a slave girl bound for life to the great red temple.

Edited by brashcandy, 17 March 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[brashcandy]

bemused, on 17 March 2012 - 05:49 PM, said:

. ETA: Maybe Quorgyle fathered Mance in his early days on the Wall..and though I think it's probably misleading to try to associate everyone with the odd similar physical characteristic...doesn't Mance have a widow's peak ? ...maybe he's distantly related to Oberyn... on the other hand some things are just coincidences. Some things may connect , but many more will not.

I think it's Rattleshirt who had the widow's peak.

[hombay]

Great, great thread. Some of your arguments can be seen as lacking, however, such as Val saying "My lord" instead of "M'lord". Could it not simply be so that she knows that it's better to be polite and act as the queen the people at the Wall see her as?
Nevertheless, amazing post. Far better than anything I might've come up with. Mayhaps you are looking a bit too much into some things, but I am still very, very impressed by your research and layout. +1!

[Val the Wildling Princess]

Awesome thread, thanks! Definitely there's something going on with Mance and his black with red silk cloak. It made me think of Melisandre's red silks too, I bet there is some connection there.

About Dalla and Val. The way Mance met Dalla have always confused me. He said he met her when he was on his way back from Winterfell. But was it south of the Wall or beyond? I mean, did he steal Dalla? Cause it doesn't make sense that he stole her sister too. I took for granted that Dalla and Val met Mance north of the Wall (plus I've always thought, since i knew the story,  that Dalla and Val were daughters of the baby daughter stolen by wildlings 30 years ago from Mors Umber, and that's why Val at least seems to be too well spoken for a wildling)

Edited by Val the Wildling Princess, 18 March 2012 - 05:50 AM.

[bemused]

Black Crow... I think you can also look at Mance's cloak as a symbol for the Watch. Its torn and worn and shredded, and needs to be mended, but as the red represented life to Mance , it's life that needs breathing into the Watch. As Mance was healed by wildlings so will the watch be , if at all..and I don't think the strict adherence to celibacy, etc. will apply ( as indicated by Sam's truncated version of the vow under the Nightfort )

brashcandy...Yes, I couldn't quite remember if it was Mance or Rattleshirt with the widow's peak , but my point is still the same . I think it would be silly to assume that Rattleshirt and Oberyn are related ,or that every mention of a hooked nose, blue eyes etc. proves some connection. Sometimes it does , as with Robert's offspring , but sometimes it means nothing at all.

Generally speaking, I tend to give a lot of credence to things Old Nan has said ( and somewhere, deep down, I hope she's still surviving at the Dreadfort ..or somewhere... ) and I've always suspected Mance of having Stark blood.

[fassreiter]

Very interesting thread, thank you! I have also been wondering about the red silk, it seems a bit of a strange coincidence that it is supposed to come from Asshai of all places. But I don't think Mance is under some kind of actual ruby spell, this was just a way of explaining to Jon why he should trust someone like Rattleshirt. Melisandre mentions that she is not afraid of Mance because she would have seen it in her fires if he meant her any harm. If the ruby had the power to control him she wouldn't have mentioned the fires in this respect, but the ruby instead. And Mance seems to do what he wants, like pissing off Marsh, so she explicitly has to tell him to stop doing this. Doesn't look like he would do what she says, though, so I think one of the reasons she sent him after Arya is because she knew she would be unable to keep his identity secret for much longer at Castle Black. The cloak is just some metaphor for freedom and shaping your own identity, I think.

I miss the cloak, by the way.

The King of the Clans theory is very nice, but I don't think it's true.

The Dornisman's Wife theory - nah. That doesn't make much sense to me. I think an alliance between the King-Beyond-the-Wall (Mance) and the Lord of Winterfell (Jon) is still to come.

Edit.: Although, the Clan wet nurses are really strange indeed. And the greatsword fighting and the name that goes for a title... I have to think about that.

Edited by fassreiter, 17 March 2012 - 07:56 PM.

[brashcandy]

Here's an interesting tidbit that could indicate that Mance was under some influence by wearing the red and black cloak:

Quote

"The bones help," said Melisandre. "The bones remember. The strongest glamors are built of such things. A dead man's boots, a hank of hair, a bag of fingerbones. With whispered words and a prayer, a man's shadow can be drawn forth from such and draped about another like a cloak. The wearer's essence does not change, only his seeming."

[Jojen]

bemused, on 17 March 2012 - 07:45 PM, said:

I think you can also look at Mance's cloak as a symbol for the Watch. Its torn and worn and shredded, and needs to be mended, but as the red represented life to Mance , it's life that needs breathing into the Watch. As Mance was healed by wildlings so will the watch be , if at all..and I don't think the strict adherence to celibacy, etc. will apply ( as indicated by Sam's truncated version of the vow under the Nightfort )

Perhaps Mance's cloak was also a bit of foreshadowing of how the NW and Stannis/Mel et al would become patched together.

Edited by Jojen, 17 March 2012 - 08:10 PM.

[Skagosi]

With regard to the Dornishman's Wife theory it is hard to say for certian because of the lack of solid background about any of the players and/or events you are talking about.  It may all be conjecture but on a  thematic level it is compelling conjecture.  I like that it adds Mance to the (long) list of characters that have some sort of touchstone/verbal refrain regarding people they lost or wish they hadn't killed.  Just as Jon Snow has Qhorin and Ygritte, Mance masochistically revisiting the murder of his Dornish comrade-in-arms suits the psychology of alot of Martin's characters.

[protar]

I only read the first post because of how long it is, but I have to say I think you're reading far too much into Mance and his cloak. It's not unreasonable for the woodswitch and her daughter to know what Asshai is: rangers from the night's watch could easily have swapped stories with them before, allowing them to recognise and Asshai'i ship or cargo etc. The story of Mance's cloak is one that demonstrates the lack of freedom on the Wall, that's why Mance deserted. To retcon this as a magic spell would ruin that.

[Black Crow]

fassreiter, on 17 March 2012 - 07:48 PM, said:

the Clan wet nurses are really strange indeed.

Not wanting to go way off topic but I think GRRM is referencing a Highland Scottish custom where the wet nurse's own son became the foster brother of the boy being suckled (and I believe the same went girl and daughter) as a way of binding the chief's family to his people.

[jon rr stark]

Mance is diffently up to something. he was suppose to be going looking for the girl in mels dream by the lake, which turned out to be alys karstark. However he went straight to winterfell. he was also not fully if at all in mels control as he didnt wear the bones and mel is trying to convince him of the need to do so to maintain a strong glamour, it appears she cant force him.
Mance must have had some plan for when he brought the wildlings south of the wall as he undoubtly knew the people there would not just let then settle there unmolested. So he may well have links with the clans as it appears they were not that against it just saying its ok as long as they dont stray into our areas.
I also feel Mance has a respect for the starks, part of his respect for jon and not killing him in the beginning is because he is a stark.
How can mance have gone to winterfell and not have known benjen, as surely he would have been in the party with the LC even if he wasnt the chief ranger by then.

Mance definitly has a plan, he did rescue Arya but he was more interested in getting into winterfell. Correct me if I wrong here but we were lead to believe he was rescueing the girl in mels vision, he had no instruction to go to winterfell, he also did not know the 'fake' real Arya was at winterfell when he left on his mission as at this point Jon didn't know she was alive.
Rescueing Arya puts him in a strong position with the north and Jon, which he would use to get his original plan back on track, does he think there is something in winterfell he can use.
He didnt come south looking for war either as he wanted to convinve the watch to go through the wall without a fight and as he pointed out he had enough of an army to go through over and around the wall since he knew the strength of the watch. I think he is more interested in an alliance south of the wall against the real enemy north of the wall, he knows more about what is to come down from the north than anyone, he maybe a stark as well and since he is also abel must know all about the song of ice and fire.

[Theo1]

Mance has a plan.  I think there is a decent case to be made that he wrote the letter that Jon received.  He had all the knowledge necessary to write the letter, he asked for his son, and others who would be great hostages with which to get Stannis to agree to let him be (and, if the op is right, Mance has the ability to connect with the clans, so a decent and formidable force in the snowy north).  Mance knows how to provoke Jon into action, calling him bastard over and over (Ramsey despises the term).  I do not think he meant any harm to Jon, just to get what he needs from him.  It also announces (although it takes Jon's public presentation of the letter's content) to the wildlings that their king is still alive.

[Dolorous Eddie]

Excellent theories all, especially the second one.

Theo1, on 18 March 2012 - 09:51 AM, said:

Mance has a plan.  I think there is a decent case to be made that he wrote the letter that Jon received.  He had all the knowledge necessary to write the letter, he asked for his son, and others who would be great hostages with which to get Stannis to agree to let him be (and, if the op is right, Mance has the ability to connect with the clans, so a decent and formidable force in the snowy north).  Mance knows how to provoke Jon into action, calling him bastard over and over (Ramsey despises the term).  I do not think he meant any harm to Jon, just to get what he needs from him.  It also announces (although it takes Jon's public presentation of the letter's content) to the wildlings that their king is still alive.

Now you mention it, I don't remember if this is explained in the book, but how would Ramsay know that Mance was Mance? In all likelihood he'd never seen him before and I can't think of a reason why Mance would tell him. As far as he's concerned, he's only an envoy Jon Snow sent to save his wife, he could have been anyone.

Edited by Dolorous Eddie, 18 March 2012 - 12:58 PM.