Why are Varys and Illyrio...

[chinchalinchin]

...trying to restore the Targaryens to power in Westeros?

Okay, maybe Varys actually wants to 'serve the realm', as pretty much confirmed in the epilogue of the ADWD. But, what are Illyrio motives? I've tried to find some explanation, but nothing comes to mind. Why would a Pentoshi cheesemonger care who sits the Iron Throne? I have a feeling there is something we don't know about him that will be revealed in the upcoming books.

Moreover, why is Varys so concerned with who reigns in Westeros? Isn't he some mummer from Essos, anyways? I'm unclear on why he cares. Is Varys a geniunely good guy? His monologue to a dying Kevan seems to suggest he wants someone on the Iron Throne who understands what it means to rule.

Any theories?

[Toccs]

Well I would never use Varys own words as any sort of confirmation of his motives quite the opposite. I know Varys always seems legit with his "for the Realm" talk and makes you believe it when he says it, but starting a civil war that destroys the very foundation of the Realm and then derailing any chance for stability that comes along are hardly the actions of a man who wants to serve the Realm and protect the innocent.

As for Illyrio, well even Pentoshi cheesemongers love their children and want them to succeed. Who wouldn't want to see their son as king of the greatest nation since Old Valyria if given the chance?

[chinchalinchin]

But Varys killed Kevan in ADWD and told him why Aegon was suited to rule instead of Tommen. It seems the only safe place to divulge your secrets would be in a dying man's ear. I have believe Varys was telling Kevan the truth and truly wants to see the Targaryens reign again. I simply can't figure out why.

As for Aegon being Illyrio's son, that's an interesting theory. However, what's the use of putting your son on the throne if he does not know you are his father? I mean, I guess family pride is one motive. However, is as much stock placed in family in Essos as in Westeros? I got the impression that Illyrio didn't give a hoot about family after he gave Tyrion that speech about how Westerosi put a lion as their sigil and suddenly they are all lions? Also, doesn't Jon Connington pretty much know Aegon is Aegon?

Plus, Dany is almost certainly a Targaryen. If Aegon was really Illyrio's son, why would he be giving help to her, a true Targaryen?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't think it's the Targaryens they want to put in power. I think it's the Blackfyres.

ETA: Connington doesn't know squat. He only met the kid when he like 4-5 years old.

[Cheese Pudding]

IMO, Varys supported Viserys and Danny just to get and army. Viserys would die one day or another (before the war), Drogo would die in the war, and then Aegon would marry Danny (Varys was probably counting that Drogo would be a true barbarian and that him and Danny would not fall in love).

The problem is: I can't really imagine how Varys would make Aegon's return appealing to Danny.

[Stanmore]

But Varys killed Kevan in ADWD and told him why Aegon was suited to rule instead of Tommen. It seems the only safe place to divulge your secrets would be in a dying man's ear. I have believe Varys was telling Kevan the truth and truly wants to see the Targaryens reign again. I simply can't figure out why.

I'll admit he could be telling the truth but announcing your plan to your dying foe is a little bit Bond villain. Maybe GRRM didn't have any other way to get this information across, but I’d like to think it was just Vary playing some deeper angle for the sake of another audience. Only time will tell.

[Toccs]

I'm leaning towards Varys and Serra as brother and sister Blakfyre descendants. Illyrio was willing to piss off the Prince of Pentos to marry Serra, to me that suggests something big in the works.

Even if "Aegon" never finds out that Illyrio is his father, he most certainly knows that Illyrio is the major backer in his bid for power.

[The Last Reyne]

I don't think it's the Targaryens they want to put in power. I think it's the Blackfyres. ETA: Connington doesn't know squat. He only met the kid when he like 4-5 years old.

Interesting as I have heard theories that Varys is a Blackfyre so if Aegon is a Blackfyre that would work. And Connington is so bent on revenge that he is willing to believe in Aegon with or without proof.

IMO, Varys supported Viserys and Danny just to get and army. Viserys would die one day or another (before the war), Drogo would die in the war, and then Aegon would marry Danny (Varys was probably counting that Drogo would be a true barbarian and that him and Danny would not fall in love). The problem is: I can't really imagine how Varys would make Aegon's return appealing to Danny.

Varys would not necessarily have to make it appealing but simply covince Dany that Aegon is the rightful heir and it is her duty to the realm and her family to support him.

[kwvapor]

If it's true that V&I gave Aegon a proper education on ruling, that education also works against V&I's influence upon Aegon if he does take power.

[kimo333]

just to be trolls for i all i know

[Redrazor96]

I don't buy Illyrio as Aegon's real father. I'm a total supporter of Aegon VI.

Hell how do any of us really know that Dany is Dany? She might've gotten switched after Rhaella gave birth and the real Dany could be Penny over with Tyrion, Patchface could really be Robert, Stannis and Rently's father Lord Steffon,

Ok in all seriousness though the whole Blackfyre rebellion is just a back story for the history of Westeros. It is not something the story that we are all reading has anything to do with. The last Blackfyre was this freak mutant baby who the "last pretender". They were there to make conflict in the Seven Kingdoms. It's fine to speculate but keep it all in context in regards to the continuity of the series. Jon Arryn dying to Varys killing Kevan is what matters to the series, not stuff that happened decades before the book started

[Jem]

I don't buy Illyrio as Aegon's real father. I'm a total supporter of Aegon VI.

Hell how do any of us really know that Dany is Dany? She might've gotten switched after Rhaella gave birth and the real Dany could be Penny over with Tyrion, Patchface could really be Robert, Stannis and Rently's father Lord Steffon,

Ok in all seriousness though the whole Blackfyre rebellion is just a back story for the history of Westeros. It is not something the story that we are all reading has anything to do with. The last Blackfyre was this freak mutant baby who the "last pretender". They were there to make conflict in the Seven Kingdoms. It's fine to speculate but keep it all in context in regards to the continuity of the series. Jon Arryn dying to Varys killing Kevan is what matters to the series, not stuff that happened decades before the book started

The reason we know Dany is Dany (as much as anyone can know the identity of anyone in a world without formal identification papers and DNA testing) is because there is a clear and trustworthy chain of custody from Dany's birth through to her wardship under Willem Darry, along with the presence of her older brother Viserys who is old enough to have witnessed her birth and who has been with her for her entire life. Sure, they may have been a chance to swap Dany, just as pretty much any baby could be swapped if you tried hard enough, but Dany has a pedigree that can be followed back in one unbroken line.

A great number of important people have known about Dany since she was born and have known her whereabouts since then. The same can not be said about Aegon, he was born and then he died about a year later, and that is it according to the official channels. This new Aegon popping up has no pedigree, he could be anyone. His official supporter, Jon Connington, is there to vouch for him, but we know that Jon didn't meet Aegon until the boy was 5-6 years old, so Jon's word isn't strong enough for me. It will probably be strong enough for several Westerosi lords and I have no doubt that Aegon will have quite a bit of support - for a short time at least. But for us who know better (the book readers), Jon's word should not be enough. For me to believe that Aegon is Aegon, I need a hell of a lot more information - like exactly how did Varys do the baby swap, how did he get the baby out of the country, who did the baby stay with (and is that person trustworthy), plus much more.

And if you think that the Blackfyre Rebellion is just a bit of colourful history and not really relevant to the current story, well that is your right, but I think that this view is somewhat naive and that you are not really understanding and appreciating the full scope of the story.

[Olde_and_Tired]

I don't buy Illyrio as Aegon's real father. I'm a total supporter of Aegon VI.

Hell how do any of us really know that Dany is Dany? She might've gotten switched after Rhaella gave birth and the real Dany could be Penny over with Tyrion, Patchface could really be Robert, Stannis and Rently's father Lord Steffon,

Ok in all seriousness though the whole Blackfyre rebellion is just a back story for the history of Westeros. It is not something the story that we are all reading has anything to do with. The last Blackfyre was this freak mutant baby who the "last pretender". They were there to make conflict in the Seven Kingdoms. It's fine to speculate but keep it all in context in regards to the continuity of the series. Jon Arryn dying to Varys killing Kevan is what matters to the series, not stuff that happened decades before the book started

The books do not exist in a vacuum. You can not simply dismiss events of the past because they don't support what you view to be truths about the series. The Blackfyre Rebellion is extremely important to the series, introduces us to Bloodraven in the Dunk and Egg tales is directly responsible for the founding of The Golden Company etc. Everything that happens in the past has an impact on things that happen in the present. Based on your thought process Robert's Rebellion is irrelevant because it happened more than a decade and a half before the books

[Toccs]

double post my bad.

[Toccs]

I don't buy Illyrio as Aegon's real father. I'm a total supporter of Aegon VI.

Ok in all seriousness though the whole Blackfyre rebellion is just a back story for the history of Westeros. It is not something the story that we are all reading has anything to do with. The last Blackfyre was this freak mutant baby who the "last pretender". They were there to make conflict in the Seven Kingdoms. It's fine to speculate but keep it all in context in regards to the continuity of the series. Jon Arryn dying to Varys killing Kevan is what matters to the series, not stuff that happened decades before the book started

No offence mate but that is a ridiculous attitude to have, how can you say that nothing that happened before Jon Arryn's death is relevant to the series. The Blackfyre Rebellion is the cause of the Golden Company's existence, them being founded by Blackfyres and all. The Golden Company famous for never breaking a contract suddenly breaks a major contract with a major client and when asked how it happened Illyrio responds "some contracts are written in blood". How do you explain that if the Blackfyres are irrelevant?

Look at the evidence, the huge personal risk that Illyrio took to marry Serra, the years old boys clothes he has in his house, his obvious fondness for the boy and the utter impracticality of the baby swap. All of that was introduced slowly over the first few Tyrion aDwD chapters. This is R+L=J stuff, not glaringly obvious on a casual read through, but when taken in context are clear hints at the direction of the plot.

"Aegon" = Blackfyre = Illyrios secret son.

[The Unborn]

Again, I don't see why a swap is so hard to imagine to some. Pycelle tells Aerys to open his gate, Varys tells him he shouldn't, Aerys decides to open the gate. Varys knows Tywin plans on sacking the city, so he prepares a swap before it's too late. Who knows where Varys was during the sack anyway.

I'm not saying that the Blackfyre theory isn't possible, but sometimes theories are... well, theories. There are many things that happens in the book (or doesn't) that are very hard to understand/believe (like something that always bugged me: why would Tyrion keep his mouth shut about Petyr lying to Catelyn in order to have him arrested? I would tell everyone. Hell, he probably could've killed him, he was the Hand after all. He sent Pycelle in the black cells for a lot less than that)

[Jem]

Again, I don't see why a swap is so hard to imagine to some. Pycelle tells Aerys to open his gate, Varys tells him he shouldn't, Aerys decides to open the gate. Varys knows Tywin plans on sacking the city, so he prepares a swap before it's too late. Who knows where Varys was during the sack anyway.

I'm not saying that the Blackfyre theory isn't possible, but sometimes theories are... well, theories. There are many things that happens in the book (or doesn't) that are very hard to understand/believe (like something that always bugged me: why would Tyrion keep his mouth shut about Petyr lying to Catelyn in order to have him arrested? I would tell everyone. Hell, he probably could've killed him, he was the Hand after all. He sent Pycelle in the black cells for a lot less than that)

I agree. I think a baby swap was entirely possibly and it could have happened any number of ways.

But if you are really going to save a baby heir so that you can one day give him back his throne, you don't keep him a secret for 17 or so years. People need to know that he is alive, that he is safe, that he has supporters and that he really is who everyone says he is. You need set of water-tight alibis to make it as hard as possible for anyone to nullify his claim. Otherwise, even if he really truly is the heir, people are entirely justified in doubting his validity.

[Pellaeon]

Varys rise out of the smalfolk and he want to serve the realm, maybe he is a blackfire or just a man of honor who want to serve the man who rise him out of the smalfolk (Aerys)

[Lummel]

But Varys killed Kevan in ADWD and told him why Aegon was suited to rule instead of Tommen. It seems the only safe place to divulge your secrets would be in a dying man's ear. I have believe Varys was telling Kevan the truth and truly wants to see the Targaryens reign again. I simply can't figure out why...

The total absence of plausible motivation for Illyrio and Varys' actions is one of the problems with believing that Aegon is real which is why you are struggling to work out why they might do such a thing.

Given the way that they treat Dany and Viserys (and what was Varys' role in relations between Rhaegar and Aerys II?) Varys and Illyrio can't simpy be Targaryen loyalist. If Varys was telling the truth to Tyrion about being cut then it seems unlikely that they are in it for magical/prophetic reasons. Since Illyrio seems to be comfortably rich and both he and Varys seem to be comfortable working in the political shadows they don't seem to be in it for directly personal gain or open power.

That doesn't leave much. Putting aside silly reasons (they are just pure Bond villians/ they are doing it for laughs because they can), either our assumptions are wrong or Aegon is a blood relative - here the blackfyre argument makes best sense because their devotion to the cause could provide a reason why they are happy to put a kinsman on the throne while they are prepared to stay out of the limelight.

[Tony Soprano]

Both Illyrio and Varys are somehow connected to the Blackfyre pretenders. That's the only theory that makes sense to me.

Maelys wasn't the last Blackfyre, he had descendants, which are connected to Illyrio and Varys. One might even say that those two are Blackfyres themselves.

And why would the Golden Company fight to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne? They spent most of their time fighting the Targaryens, under both Bittersteel and Maelys the Monstrous.

And what was it that Illyrio said? " Some contracts are writ in ink, some in blood. "