Edmure Tully and the Battle of the Red Fork

[Chaircat Meow]

Was Edmure on the verge of losing the Battle of the Fords?

One of the ‘Tywin is incompetent and overrated’ brigade’s favourite talking points on this board is how Tywin couldn’t even successfully cross the Red Fork, in the face of Tully resistance, despite possessing nearly twice as many men. This battle is also cited to suggest poor and unlucky Edmure ‘came good,’ in the end, and actually did something right for a change.

I think, in contrast, that there is evidence to suggest that Tywin’s assaults across the river were on the verge of paying off, and that Edmure may have been blundering once again. We are told, by Brienne, that the lannister plan is probably to first assess the strength of the dozen or so fords’ defences by probing attacks, and then to break through (CoK, Cat, p. 480). Ser Desmond explains that Edmure, alongside counting on the height of the west bank of the river and the cover provided by the fords, ‘’will have kept his best knights in reserve, ready to ride wherever they are most sorely needed.’’ (CoK, Cat, p. 480) One of the best ways for the lannisters to cross successfully therefore is to launch their main attack after the reserve force has been committed elsewhere. We also know that Edmure threw his reserve at Gregor Clegane’s assault at the Stone Mill, and that Tywin himself and his reserve seemingly played no part in the battle.

the fiercest battle had been fought at Stone Mill, where Ser Gregor Clegane led the assault. So many of his men had fallen that their dead horses threatened to damn the flow. In the end the Mountain and a handful of his best had gained the west bank, but Edmure had thrown his reserve at them, and they had shattered and reeled away bloody and beaten.

CoK, Cat, p. 483 (hardback)

Here’s the thing though: Tywin has a long history of using Gregor Clegane as ‘the bait,’ in operations such as these.

In GoT he tasked Gregor Clegane with raiding the riverlands to draw Ned Stark west. At the battle of the Green Fork he gave Gregor the command of the vanguard which he hoped would break and thus cause the Starks to over commit, allowing Kevan’s ‘notoriously disciplined infantry’ (see SSM http://www.westeros..../SSM/Entry/1174) to execute a turning manoeuvre to flank them. Tywin certainly milks Gregor for all he is worth, but is happy to see him as expendable arrow fodder on the battlefield.

Therefore, based on what we know of Tywin’s modus operandi regarding Ser Gregor, is seems likely this is a hint the battle was actually not going Edmure’s way and that the decisive thrust, far from being led by Ser Gregor, was only on the verge of being launched (at another ford) to exploit the fact the Tully reserve had been committed. That Gregor’s attack was assumed to be the real hammer was a result of the fact Tywin was forced to hurry away to save King’s Landing and so the attack at Stone Mill ended up being the last big assault.

As we later learn from the Blackfish in SoS;

‘’When you stopped Tywin on the Red Fork,’’ ... ‘’you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Tandyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and ...

SoS, Cat, p. 164 (hardback)

The implication here is that Tywin’s turning of his host was due to the report that the Tyrells wanted to ally with him, not because he’d necessarily given up crossing the Red fork as a lost cause. In CoK Edmure reports that Tywin’s ‘retreat’ immediately after the battle is south-east, which would indeed be the case if he were marching to join the Tyrells. As there is therefore good reason to conclude Tywin’s planned assault had not actually finished when he left, as he left for other reasons, we could conclude that Edmure was about to be punished for thinking the main thrust was being commanded by Gregor, and that he was saved yet another humiliation by the timely arrival of the Tyrell messengers.

[Naathi Prince]

Very nicely done, and I'm going to have to agree here. I don't think Edmure's strategy was particularly bad, it just relied on Edmure winning a game of cat and mouse with Tywin Lannister, which wasn't going to happen. The real question is, in the absence of the Tyrell messengers, Tywin has enough strength in his host to still deal with Robb Stark?

[Chaircat Meow]

Very nicely done, and I'm going to have to agree here. I don't think Edmure's strategy was particularly bad, it just relied on Edmure winning a game of cat and mouse with Tywin Lannister, which wasn't going to happen. The real question is, in the absence of the Tyrell messengers, Tywin has enough strength in his host to still deal with Robb Stark?

:) Thanks.

I don't think Tywin takes very many casualties at the Red Fork. Gregor's losses will be in the hundreds are something. So yes, he should have the numbers. But, of course, we know the war would have been decided elsewhere if he ever got west anyway. The real question is whether the Tyrells could have dealt with Stannis on their own.

[Naathi Prince]

:) Thanks.

I don't think Tywin takes very many casualties at the Red Fork. Gregor's losses will be in the hundreds are something. So yes, he should have the numbers. But, of course, we know the war would have been decided elsewhere if he ever got west anyway. The real question is whether the Tyrells could have dealt with Stannis on their own.

Or would the Tyrells have dealt with Stannis on their own? I never got why Randyll Tarly, of all people, is such an anti-Stannis figure. If anything, he should be a huge fan of Mr. Justice and Laws

[Chaircat Meow]

Or would the Tyrells have dealt with Stannis on their own? I never got why Randyll Tarly, of all people, is such an anti-Stannis figure. If anything, he should be a huge fan of Mr. Justice and Laws

They'd already decided to go for a lannister alliance. It's just that they stuck around waiting for Tywin it seems, or maybe they were just busy organizing barges and had time to send for him because of that?

[Naathi Prince]

They'd already decided to go for a lannister alliance. It's just that they stuck around waiting for Tywin it seems, or maybe they were just busy organizing barges and had time to send for him because of that?

Which seems strange to me, that they'd pick the Lannisters. The Lannisters have the weakest position at the time, they hold the Throne, but Robb is pillaging the Westerlands, they are down to one host, and they have no allies. I guess they figured the Lannisters would be more beholden to them than anyone else? Elsewise they could offer a Loras/Shireen match which accomplishes the same thing as Joff/Marg

[E-Ro]

Very good post bran! I don't have the time right now to fully discuss this but I will be back, just wanted to say great op.

[Talleyrand]

They're was still a strong Tully force at every other force, ones that had proved adept enough to throw back Adam Marband three times as well as several other lords. With this taken into account it seems more to me that Gregor being sent in was more of a last ditch attempt to break through which would better explain his perseverance through heavy losses. Additionally Tywin's scouts have not crossed the river they are not aware that Edmure's knights were the only thing to hold back the tide if the initial defenders failed.

:) Thanks.

I don't think Tywin takes very many casualties at the Red Fork. Gregor's losses will be in the hundreds are something. So yes, he should have the numbers. But, of course, we know the war would have been decided elsewhere if he ever got west anyway. The real question is whether the Tyrells could have dealt with Stannis on their own.

I believe they still would have won, even if it was at more cost. They had the numbers, their men were not tired, surprise and a large number of Stormland lords fled/changed sides/lost morale at the sight of Renly's ghost

[Chaircat Meow]

They're was still a strong Tully force at every other force, ones that had proved adept enough to throw back Adam Marband three times as well as several other lords. With this taken into account it seems more to me that Gregor being sent in was more of a last ditch attempt to break through which would better explain his perseverance through heavy losses.

I don't think Tywin tells Gregor he's arrow fodder. I'm pretty sure he didn't tell him he was counting on him getting routed at the Green Fork, and, irrc, he rushed on insanely there too.

Additionally Tywin's scouts have not crossed the river they are not aware that Edmure's knights were the only thing to hold back the tide if the initial defenders failed.

I think you just mount a very heavy assault somewhere well away from where you actually want to cross and hope the Tullys take the bait (which, on my theory, they did).

[Naathi Prince]

They're was still a strong Tully force at every other force, ones that had proved adept enough to throw back Adam Marband three times as well as several other lords. With this taken into account it seems more to me that Gregor being sent in was more of a last ditch attempt to break through which would better explain his perseverance through heavy losses. Additionally Tywin's scouts have not crossed the river they are not aware that Edmure's knights were the only thing to hold back the tide if the initial defenders failed.

I believe they still would have won, even if it was at more cost. They had the numbers, their men were not tired, surprise and a large number of Stormland lords fled/changed sides/lost morale at the sight of Renly's ghost

That's the thing, we don't know how seriously Ser Addam was attacking there. If they are just looking for weaknesses, then Ser Addam isn't going to go for a full on assault.

The Western Host punched repeatedly at the Red Fork, trying to find a weakness. It appears they found at least one, and sent Ser Gregor there. This brings out the Riverlords reserve, and then, Tywin attacks another weakness at a different point. At no point in the attack were the Lannisters actually making an attempt to cross the river.

[King Aerys the Just]

Very good post bran! I don't have the time right now to fully discuss this but I will be back, just wanted to say great op.

:agree:

It makes a lot of sense now when I think about it, strange nobody picked up on it before.

[Talleyrand]

I don't think Tywin tells Gregor he's arrow fodder. I'm pretty sure he didn't tell him he was counting on him getting routed at the Green Fork, and, irrc, he rushed on insanely there too.

You think he'd learn to clue Gregor in, or else it seems he has a tendency to break plans

[Naathi Prince]

You think he'd learn to clue Gregor in, or else it seems he has a tendency to break plans

How would Gregor break this plan? This plan says "Gregor, take yourself and a bunch of the rest of your nutjobs and attack here at Stone Mill. Try to take the river, but don't waste all your men." If Gregor doesn't listen and goes for broke and wastes all his men? More Riverlords reserve away from the main thrust.

[Chaircat Meow]

How would Gregor break this plan? This plan says "Gregor, take yourself and a bunch of the rest of your nutjobs and attack here at Stone Mill. Try to take the river, but don't waste all your men." If Gregor doesn't listen and goes for broke and wastes all his men? More Riverlords reserve away from the main thrust.

I expect Talleyrand was referring to the way Tywin's 'feigned rout' plan went down the toilet at the Green Fork.

[E-Ro]

Alright, I agree that Tywin had SOMETHING up his sleeves for this battle, his plan was not just "Smash them at an incredibly hard place to take and hope it all goes well" He was planning something I would have to agree, and this lookes to be a good plan. Losses would of course be heavy, but what can you expect when taking a fortified position? It would have eventually ended in Tywin getting through, the question is, how battered would he be? We dont have enough info to tell who would win tywin or robb(as well this thread would turn into a clusterfuck of ZOMG ROBB and FUCK YEA TYWIN!) once tywin gets through, its anyone's game at that point.

The real question is whether the Tyrells could have dealt with Stannis on their own.

I think the tyrels were waiting around for Tywin, its possible that if he broke through(I really wish he did) they would have stayed waiting for him, resulting in Stannis taking KL as he was very close to doing so, and killing the royal family and taking numerous hostages. With joff dead, and the city taken its game over. But this scenario relies on the tyrells being at least somewhat delayed by tywin going west and not linking up with them. Since, if they attack even without tywin, I think its the same result, with renlys 'ghost' Stannis' host switches sides. what does everyone else think? Are the tyrels going to sit around doing nothing without tywin, or attack?

[Sworn Shield]

I'm still dubious, I think perhaps Tywin could have won, but surely his losses would have been huge. His most daring commander Ser Addam Marbrand had already tried crossing three times and failed, other of his banner men had drowned or been captured.

[Frey Pie]

They're was still a strong Tully force at every other force, ones that had proved adept enough to throw back Adam Marband three times as well as several other lords. With this taken into account it seems more to me that Gregor being sent in was more of a last ditch attempt to break through which would better explain his perseverance through heavy losses. Additionally Tywin's scouts have not crossed the river they are not aware that Edmure's knights were the only thing to hold back the tide if the initial defenders failed.

I tend to agree. This was a three day battle, in which Tywin was nearly constantly attempting to cross the river. Now, we know he already committed and lost a few high lords-Lyle Crakehall, Lord Lefford, Addam Marbrand. Hes testing out the defenses i agree. Now Tywin may have sent Gregor as a diversion but it was a very bloody affair. Do we know that straight away after the battle at the Stone Mill that Tywin met the Tyrells? IIRC we dont. In any case had it been a diversion, surely Tywin would have timed it so that he would be crossing at another area during the battle while Edmures reserves are engaged and unable to reinforce another area? But theres no evidence of this. It seems to be a conclusive victory for Edmure. In addition, i dont see this as a 100% winning movie for a number of reasons:

Gregor only just got over with a very strong force. We know that any crossing will take heavy losses and it wont be easy. Its quite within the realms of possibility that a competent commander like Jason Mallister would see the troops Tywins amassing and no he cant hold them, and send for reinforcements not only from the reserve, but from other fords also. Edmure may be able to finish Gregor and ride to help, or even send a portion of his strength. So all in all the crossing may still be held

Excellent OP Bran and in ways it makes sense. I do think in the end that Tywin would have won the river, but with huge losses, and far smaller ones to Edmure who can retreat to a position of power content with a good few days work. If Tywin loses many men then it may well be curtains for him anyway

[Lion of Judah]

I don't think Tywin had a choice, but to send a scout force ahead. Edmure had all the river crossings stoutly defended. Tywin's plan wasn't to destroy the Tully force, he really wanted to cross and get to the Westerlands. His objective was finding a weakness where he could cross so he wouldn't have to fully engage Tully forces. He still has to get to the Westerlands to fight Robb, he never planned on using his best knights for the Tully fight. After Gregor took heavy losses and Edmure got reinforcements Tywin had to regroup. If Tywin got past the Riverlands he was not getting back out, let's say he does the unthinkable and defeats Robb in the Westerlands, would he really have the strength to recross the River and face Stannis? I don't think so, losing to Edmure gave him the chance to regroup and realize that turning back and aligning with the Tyrell's to fight Stannis was the winnable fight. Robb Stark was too much for him.

[Frey Pie]

I don't think Tywin had a choice, but to send a scout force ahead. Edmure had all the river crossings stoutly defended. Tywin's plan wasn't to destroy the Tully force, he really wanted to cross and get to the Westerlands.

Thats whats good about Edmures tactics. Tywin doesnt want a long fight. Hed happily march straight past RR. But Edmure makes it impossible for him to do so. Tywin may win the crossing but it will come at a very high price. Had the Tyrells not come and Tywin was stuck i do think he would have won-his men are well trained and well led. But i also think he would have lost thousands crossing the river and afterwards when his supply line is very long and vulnerable. I think if he forced the crossing it could have been the end for him, unless he took time to gather and train reinforcements

[Lion of Judah]

Thats whats good about Edmures tactics. Tywin doesnt want a long fight. Hed happily march straight past RR. But Edmure makes it impossible for him to do so. Tywin may win the crossing but it will come at a very high price. Had the Tyrells not come and Tywin was stuck i do think he would have won-his men are well trained and well led. But i also think he would have lost thousands crossing the river and afterwards when his supply line is very long and vulnerable. I think if he forced the crossing it could have been the end for him, unless he took time to gather and train reinforcements

True. The fact is Edmure won because Tywin withdrew and he did so because the price of fighting Edmure was just too costly. Had he not withdrawn he would have won no doubt, but that victory would have been the end of him once he crossed that river. To be honest the luck that it takes to get out of that situation is beyond believable, you can't even credit Tywin because he survived by basically running out of options.