War in the Riverlands Part Two

[Frey Pie]

The aim of the thread is to discuss numbers, casualties and what could have been done better So this is a continuation of the following thread: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/84239-war-in-the-riverlands-part-one/

In the previous thread we discussed Jaime and Tywin steamrolling the Riverlander armies with a combination of good planning and a surprise attack against an enemy who was not yet ready for such an attack and was ill train and ill led. Not until the North entered the fight did the Lannisters get a proper fight.

This thread will be on the Green For, with the next on Robbs victories. So we know Robb split his forces up, sending his foot to fight Tywin, and leading the horse to RR himself. Was this the right strategy? From the off, knowing not what happened after i.e Robbs stunning victories. Would he have been better served trying to defeat Father Lion himself?

As for the Green Fork. Roose v Tywin should have been a great battle, with even enough numbers-20000 v 16000. Tywin has the advantage of more horse and a defended position. We know how the battle went. It was hard fought enough, but ultimately a great win for Tywin. A question however- did Tywin win the battle or did Roose lose it? A bit of both for me. Tywin did everything perfectly. Roose did nothing right-as in diddly. What could he have done differently?

And could Tywin have done more? Could he have continued after Roose, using his advantage of cavalry to truly knock Roose out of the game? Was this an option?

And how about casualties? 150 clansmen and i imagine the other components of Tywins left wing suffered heavy enough casualties. However, compared to the Northerners nothing to write home about. The next number we get for Roose' army was 10000. However i dont think 6000 men died at the GF. I would think 3000 straight casualties, and many more on the retreat to desertion, wounds and disease. This is then added onto by what i imagine were many smaller skirmishes with Tywin men after the retreat.

So-casualties, was Robbs strategy correct, and what could the respective generals have done better?

[Corvo Attano]

Robb's Whispering Wood trap was so well-executed, he probably could have afforded to send more men to the green fork, which could have meant that he won both battles, thus obliterating the main Lannister army in one stroke

[King Aerys the Just]

Nice to see a part two.

I personally believe that Robb would have done better by skipping the entire Frey pact and the subsequent split of his army, and instead gone for Tywin's warhost at the Green Fork with all his strength and tried defeating him there. He would then both have outnumbered Tywin as well as been fighting in friendly territory, and a potential victory there could have been war winning by itself had it resulted in Tywin getting killed or captured.

While engaging a skilled commander like Tywin in a pitched battle would always be risky, Robb's alternative course of action really wasn't any less so in my opinion, since that still entailed risking all his infantry against the same opponent in a similar field battle, as well as also succeeding in pulling off a maneuver towards Riverrun with his cavalry without being discovered by Jaime. So in my opinion the tearing-Tywin-to-pieces-head-on plan sounds like more potential gain for about the same (pretty big) risk compared to the other one, which according to game theory would make it a better course of action.

The poster Nyrhex in a previous thread had an idea for how Robb's actual plan could have been modified to work better though, which was really interesting.

[Frey Pie]

Nice to see a part two.

I personally believe that Robb would have done better by skipping the entire Frey pact and the subsequent split of his army, and instead gone for Tywin's warhost at the Green Fork with all his strength and tried defeating him there. He would then both have outnumbered Tywin as well as been fighting in friendly territory, and a potential victory there could have been war winning by itself had it resulted in Tywin getting killed or captured.

While engaging a skilled commander like Tywin in a pitched battle would always be risky, Robb's alternative course of action really wasn't any less so in my opinion, since that still entailed risking all his infantry against the same opponent in a similar field battle, as well as also succeeding in pulling off a maneuver towards Riverrun with his cavalry without being discovered by Jaime. So in my opinion the tearing-Tywin-to-pieces-head-on plan sounds like more potential gain for about the same (pretty big) risk compared to the other one, which according to game theory would make it a better course of action.

The poster Nyrhex in a previous thread had an idea for how Robb's actual plan could have been modified to work better though, which was really interesting.

Meant to do it ages ago but my laptops acting up! Thanks for the encouragment though :)

I think when discussing the overall strategy its hard but important to ignore what we know of the actual consequences and look at it from Robbs perspective. Looking from Robbs perspective to make things clear i think he had to go to RR. His family were there and under threat. Had he gone up against Tywin even if he wins many different things may happen-

• He could lose, but say he doesnt
  
• He may (and likely would) have suffered many many causalties
  
• He may not have captured Tywin
  
• Tywin could retreat when he sees hes outnumbered, in which case Robb loses the initiative and RR
  

So to me its risking alot to confront Tywin on the off chance of capturing him-unlikely as Tywins known for commanding the reserve. Now looking from Robbs POV-

• He gets 4000 extra men from the Freys
  
• Honour dictates he must go to RR
  
• I feel hes calculated that hes more likely to capture Jaime who leads from the front
  
• BF knows the territory around RR very well-a fact we know was used to great advantage
  
• He may get the Riverlander lords onside- he was always going to gather up the Mallisters, a very strong and military house
  
• If successful he robs Tywin of a retreat
  
• Common sense would then dictate that should he win his allies, the Arryns will ride out and Tywin will be caught between three armies
  

While the chance to capture Tywin is tantalizing, i think Robb definitely made the right choice of splitting his troops. He correctly judged both Tywin and Jaime. Where he fell short (and i cant blame him as it defies logic) is that Roose bundled his part of the plan almost completely, thanks to his own ill judgement and Tywins ability. All in all though the pros outweighs the cons in Robbs case for me

[Chaircat Meow]

Yea, nice to see part II. I am going to comment more fully later but I want to say this now.

A thing that has always bugged me is this. Why do Marbrand's outriders not report the horse-foot split to Tywin before the battle? I know the BF stopped the lannister outriders approaching too close at the Twins but after that Tywin's scouts did know about the Stark junction with the Freys and reported it. They must have seen the banners, or the additional foot: so how did they miss 9/10s of the cavalry were missing? They are in contact with Bolton's host to the extent his attempt to surprise Tywin by a night march fails but still no hint the horse is gone?

And it is still not noticed on the battlefield itself. Come on ... I see why GrrM did it, it is meant to blow you away at the end when the lannisters learn Robb has tricked them but realistically they really should have known sooner. Maybe not soon enough to do anything but the surprise should not have been held off until after the battle. It is too much, imo.

So I am saying storytelling trumps logic there, which is fine, it is a fantasy book, I'm just pointing it out.

[Frey Pie]

Yea, nice to see part II. I am going to comment more fully later but I want to say this now.

A thing that has always bugged me is this. Why do Marbrand's outriders not report the horse-foot split to Tywin before the battle? I know the BF stopped the lannister outriders approaching too close at the Twins but after that Tywin's scouts did know about the Stark junction with the Freys and reported it. They must have seen the banners, or the additional foot: so how did they miss 9/10s of the cavalry were missing? They are in contact with Bolton's host to the extent his attempt to surprise Tywin by a night march fails but still no hint the horse is gone?

And it is still not noticed on the battlefield itself. Come on ... I see why GrrM did it, it is meant to blow you away at the end when the lannisters learn Robb has tricked them but realistically they really should have known sooner. Maybe not soon enough to do anything but the surprise should not have been held off until after the battle. It is too much, imo.

So I am saying storytelling trumps logic there, which is fine, it is a fantasy book, I'm just pointing it out.

Well we know Freys had killed Lannister scouts by the time Robb had arrived. Guess they could have done a mighty fine job. As for not seeing the split-depends how close they can get. Robb forces say camp a mile south of the Twins waiting for Cat, with outriders going even further south. At this stage then it can be assumed by Lannister scouts that Walder has joined Robb but they are too far away to see the split in troops.

As for Tywin perhaps he never expected Robb to have that many men, due to the speed he reacted with. Tywin was caught a tad by surprise by Rooses quick advance so perhaps Addams men werent so competent? Could it be Southern prejudice? Northerners arent knights so they dont have large numbers of cavalry? Thats stretching it though i know :) Id say your right though. Had Robb even sent half his cavalry i can see how they may mistake it, but not with 9/10s

[Frey Pie]

Robb's Whispering Wood trap was so well-executed, he probably could have afforded to send more men to the green fork, which could have meant that he won both battles, thus obliterating the main Lannister army in one stroke

Roose was never going to win the GF with his tactics. He could have had all Robbs cavalry and hed still have lost. No part of his plan had merit IMO

[Chaircat Meow]

Well we know Freys had killed Lannister scouts by the time Robb had arrived. Guess they could have done a mighty fine job. As for not seeing the split-depends how close they can get. Robb forces say camp a mile south of the Twins waiting for Cat, with outriders going even further south. At this stage then it can be assumed by Lannister scouts that Walder has joined Robb but they are too far away to see the split in troops.

As for Tywin perhaps he never expected Robb to have that many men, due to the speed he reacted with. Tywin was caught a tad by surprise by Rooses quick advance so perhaps Addams men werent so competent? Could it be Southern prejudice? Northerners arent knights so they dont have large numbers of cavalry? Thats stretching it though i know :) Id say your right though. Had Robb even sent half his cavalry i can see how they may mistake it, but not with 9/10s

It would be plausible to me if Robb gave Bolton more of his horse, say half, or even just a third. I find 9/10 disappearing and it not being noticed until after the battle itself a bit hard to stomach.

[Frey Pie]

It would be plausible to me if Robb gave Bolton more of his horse, say half, or even just a third. I find 9/10 disappearing and it not being noticed until after the battle itself a bit hard to stomach.

From that POV ya, but i think Robb wanted all the horse he felt he could get away with. Its best not to pick things like this too much

BTW i think this is your best picture so far :P

[Chaircat Meow]

BTW i think this is your best picture so far :P

Haha, yes, a cat is more appropriate for me I think.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Hooray for part two!

I'll write something more later but for now just about the 9/10 horse:

The 9/10 horse are men that are intended to to battle in the saddle. But they aren't the only ones mounted while on the march. Destriers are expensive, but carthorses are cheap. A lot of men would ride while on the march and dismount for battle. Furthermore, there will be a lot of horses in the baggage train, which are difficult to distinguish from remounts for the actual fighting horses. Each knight would need several remounts, same for the light cavalry to a lesser extent. These remounts would be in the baggage train and hard to scout.

[Nyrhex]

War in the Riverlands - The North Strikes Back

Robb is waiting in Moat Cailin for Manderly's force to join him, bringing his host to 18,000 men. Back in Winterfell he had ~12,000 men, of whom ~3,400 were horsemen, so we can assume that he had over 4,000 horses by now. In any case it's still less then Tywin's host of ~20,000 men, of whom 7,800 are horsemen and knights.

This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were

accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever.

As mentioned by Catelyn, Robb's army is not a hired army, but raised levies mostly. Tywin Lannister is on his way north with a larger, better equiped and trained army, with a large advantage in horsemen. A field battle is risky enough. However, Robb has another worry - A second Lannister host under the command of Jaime Lannister had recently smashed his way into the Riverlands, and is holding Edmure Tully hostage, while laying siege to Riverrun.

Robb needs to plan for these two threats:

1. One is the immediet threat - Tywin's host on it's way north. As Robb says himself, holding his army there is difficult from the logistics standpoint alone.

2. The other threat is greater in the long run. If Riverrun falls, not only will the Lannisters hold two important hostages (the lord paramount of the Riverlands and his heir), they will hold a strong castle and control the western Riverlands, and will be able to send another army north. Fighting after such a defeat would be extremely hard for the North.

Robb plans on splitting his army, and to engage the larger one under Tywin with the bulk of his force, while using his horse to launch a surprise attack against Jaime's siege of Riverrun. His plan hinge on one factor - Will Walder Frey, a Tully bannerman who is of dubious loyalty, open his gates and add his streangh to Robb's? After quick negotiations, Catelyn manages to secure a marriage alliance between Frey and the Starks. Robb goes west, where he will be joined by Tully forces who managed to survive the opening stages of the war in the Riverlands. On the east, Robb places Roose Bolton in command of the Northern foot.

The events of the battles of the Whispering Woods and the Camps are pretty clear, and show that Robb had planned well for these two battles. He was aided by local Riverlords, and had the element of surprise on his side in both cases.

However, on the eastern front, things went a little different for the North. Why?

First thing to go wrong is the choosing of the commander. Robb has the Greatjon in mind, but his mother thinks this is a bad decision and urges him to choose someone more cunning, hinting at Roose. Now there are a number of reasons not to listen to Catelyn, but Robb still does, and names Roose, a man he admits to scare him.

Roose's battle plan raises several questions:

1. Why march towords Tywin, if you need him to be as far away from Riverrun as possible? Shouldn't the obviouse course of action be to choose a battlefield as close to the Twins as possible, thus adding distance between Tywin and Jaime (Considering that the Twins are safeguarded by 800 men, and a siege would take too long to reach Jaime in time)?

2. If the force under Roose is smaller then Tywin's, and lacks horse for a fast assault, why attack? Would it not be better to choose a defensive battle, and choose a battlefield with natural defenses and advantages?

3. If an attack is the course of action that was decided, why not an ambush? Why was there a need to attack the enemy camp? A camp is usually located where it can be defended from exactly this kind of assaults. An army on the move is less defended and a proper ambush can turn the tide in one's favoure, numerically speaking. Also, after a long night's march, the soldiers will be tired.

4. Roose's only advantage is surprise, which was cancealed when Tywin's scouts reported Rooses movements ahead of time, thus giving Tywin time to prepare his order of battle. Why did Roose press the attack when his only advantage was cancealed very early? Why not an orderly retreat to fight another day?

Roose's attack fails, and only due to Tywin's decision not to press the attack is the Stark army able to reteat with 2/3 it's strength.

How could the situation on the eastern bank be handeled better?

As stated earlier, the threat on this front is Tywin's host marching north. The goal here is to stop Tywin. Since an assault on Tywin carries too much risk, a defensive plan should have been made. The two points where Tywin can be stopped are Moat Cailin and the Twins. One closes the North, the other the western Riverlands. Both are easily defended with a small force. Roose has most of the army with him, and if Tywin wishes to go around the Green fork, he would need to pass through unfriendly territory, cut off from supplies, and attacked by the Crannogmen untill finally, weakened and tired, he would face Roose's army.

But how to do this without alerting Tywin that something is wrong? If Tywin sees Roose parking his army in the Twins, he may simply turn back and send aid to Jaime.

As I've posted in "Where did all the troops go?", Roose could have used his cunning, and pretended to siege the Twins. This course of action would have seemed reasonable to Tywin, who lacked respect for Robb's ability. Tywin could be allowed very close to the Twins, and then Roose could simply cross them and leave Tywin on the other bank.

This way, Robb's goals are met with little risk. Tywin can't keep north, and if he doesn't move south fast and sieges the Twins, HH will be taken from him by Robb. If he chose to attack the Vale, that would only add another front, and again, would allow Robb to cut him off.

TL:DR

Roose should have played defense and lure Tywin north instead of attacking him.

[King Aerys the Just]

Meant to do it ages ago but my laptops acting up! Thanks for the encouragment though :)

I think when discussing the overall strategy its hard but important to ignore what we know of the actual consequences and look at it from Robbs perspective. Looking from Robbs perspective to make things clear i think he had to go to RR. His family were there and under threat. Had he gone up against Tywin even if he wins many different things may happen-

• He could lose, but say he doesnt
  
• He may (and likely would) have suffered many many causalties
  
• He may not have captured Tywin
  
• Tywin could retreat when he sees hes outnumbered, in which case Robb loses the initiative and RR
  

His attack at Riverrun could also have failed, though. In the same manner as his eastern army under Roose Bolton could have gotten destroyed completely by Tywin since they were so outmatched in terms of cavalry (and almost were). If any of those two things happened in his original plan it would have been a catastrophe too, and I don't see either scenario as more likely than the other.

So to me its risking alot to confront Tywin on the off chance of capturing him-unlikely as Tywins known for commanding the reserve. Now looking from Robbs POV-

• He gets 4000 extra men from the Freys
  
• Honour dictates he must go to RR
  
• I feel hes calculated that hes more likely to capture Jaime who leads from the front
  
• BF knows the territory around RR very well-a fact we know was used to great advantage
  
• He may get the Riverlander lords onside- he was always going to gather up the Mallisters, a very strong and military house
  
• If successful he robs Tywin of a retreat
  
• Common sense would then dictate that should he win his allies, the Arryns will ride out and Tywin will be caught between three armies
  

Yeah there were upsides with that course of action too, but I don't think they outweigh what he could have gained with the other. Though your last point is very good; Robb (presumably?) didn't know how crazy and weird Lysa was and thought that as long as he could remove the most immediate threat, which was Jaime sieging Riverrun, the Vale would eventually join the war and let him safely finish off Tywin with huge numerical superiority and a lot better strategic positions afterwards. That's true.

While the chance to capture Tywin is tantalizing, i think Robb definitely made the right choice of splitting his troops. He correctly judged both Tywin and Jaime. Where he fell short (and i cant blame him as it defies logic) is that Roose bundled his part of the plan almost completely, thanks to his own ill judgement and Tywins ability. All in all though the pros outweighs the cons in Robbs case for me

Mmh, I don't think Roose can be blamed too much for that failure, even though he didn't perform well either. Since Robb never voices any complaints about Roose seeking a pitched battle with Tywin that was probably what Robb had intended too, unnecessary as it may seem.

It seems like using those dots messes up quoting, by the way. Took me a while to figure out, haha.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I definitely think that Robb made the right decision.

As expressed in above posts, had he went for Tywin head on, he may have had victory, but not necessarily anything to show for it. With the knowledge that Jaime is brash and will ride into battle himself, Robb knows that he can save RR and also capture Jaime, which will put a noose around Tywins neck. Also remember that at this time, Ned was still alive I believe and they wanted to use Jaime as a bargaining chip.

Also, facing Tywin would have been a pretty much "all or nothing" type of battle. Robb would be investing pretty much his whole army in hopes that he would destroy the Lannister main force. At this point in the war, it's just too big of a risk. If he loses, he has to retreat back North, leaving RR taken, and the rest of the Riverlands savaged, while also running the risk of getting killed or capture himself.

Plus, he had no reason to doubt that his Aunt Lysa would be sending men from the Vale, however I felt like more things could have been done to try and bring the Vale into the fold, with or without the consent of Lysa.

The one flaw I think Robb engaged in most militarily was lack of communication. On his campaign West, he did not explicitly tell Edmure what the plan was (luring Tywin West), and also, I have NO IDEA why Robb decided to not go further West and even try to assault the Rock when he was by the Golden Tooth, especially when he learned that Tywin went to Kings Landing to beat off Stannis. Casterly would have been ripe for the taking, and with a small captured fleet, he could have sailed North to end the Greyjoys while giving commands to the Riverlands to band together and defend against advances from the Lannisters

[King Aerys the Just]

Hooray for part two!

I'll write something more later but for now just about the 9/10 horse:

The 9/10 horse are men that are intended to to battle in the saddle. But they aren't the only ones mounted while on the march. Destriers are expensive, but carthorses are cheap. A lot of men would ride while on the march and dismount for battle. Furthermore, there will be a lot of horses in the baggage train, which are difficult to distinguish from remounts for the actual fighting horses. Each knight would need several remounts, same for the light cavalry to a lesser extent. These remounts would be in the baggage train and hard to scout.

If Roose was feeling cunning couldn't he also have taken those remounts from the baggage train and let some of his foot soldiers ride them, making them look like cavalry to watchers who weren't looking too closely?

[Chaircat Meow]

I think it should be noted that Robb makes no judgment on Jaime's rashness until just before the Whispering Wood, when he is informed of it by the Blackfish and then constructed his ambush plan around it.

I don't think he originally had any belief that it would be easier to capture Jaime or anything.

[Knight Of Winter]

Excellent to see part two :) Now, onto the war and battles:

Robb's strategy:

I think Robb's plan was quite a sound one, albeit a bit risky. His basic idea was to use most of his army (cca 15000) under Roose Bolton to engage Tywin, while leading the rest (highly mobile cavalry) to the Riverrun hoping to liberate Edmure's forces from siege. Obviously, Robb thought relieving RR was of urgent importance, so he chose only his mounted forces to follow him, leaving his infarty with Bolton.

As it turned out, Robb had chosen well. Cavalry is indeed more apt for ambush (Battle of the Whispering Wood), while Jaime's superior numbers didn't help him one bit because he had to split his army in 3 parts while besieging RR. Meanwhile, most of his forces under Roose marched towards Tywin and (after lost battle of GF) kept him at "check" forcing Tywin to remain in Riverlands while he would rather march south to combat Renly and Stannis.

The plan was risky (if Jaime was more alert and prepared for battle, Robb would have very difficult time beating him), but really, what were the alternatives? Marching towards RR with his whole army - which would significantly slow him down and leave Tywin free to do as he pleases (no Roose's army to keep him in check). Or engage Tywin with all of his forces - which is way riskier (what if he loses? what if Tywin retreats with most of his army intact all while Jaime finally breaks RR's defences? Robb simply couldn't abandon RR to his fate - if RR falls, most of Riverlands army is defeated or captured, while the rest is demoralized and without leadership).

In short, this is first time Robb showed his strategic prowess, emerging victorious from difficult staring position. He's still unsure about his ability to command and respect of his bannerman, both of which he'll overcome in war to follow. Kudos to Catelyn for helping him along the way.

Battle of Green Fork:

Here we have R. Bolton with Stark infartry (15k-18k strong) against Tywin's army (cca 20k strong). We know what happened - after forced night march, Roose engaged Tywin and lost. He managed to retreat with most of his army, without inflicting serious losses to Tywin's troops. With benefit of hindsight, Robb probably shouldn't have chosen Bolton as commander in this battle - cold and pragmatic men from house of dubious loyalty is not the best choice to command bulk of your troops.

I'll admit I'm very suspicious of Bolton's plans here: he orders his troops night march, leaving them tired and sleepless prior to battle. This would not be a problem were he able to catch Tywin by suprise, but realistically what are the odds of that happening? Roose surely must have known of Tywin's battle reputation and was aware he's not the man to be caught off-guard. So why engage him with half-asleep army? Roose's job was simply to keep Tywin busy and make him think he's battling Robb's army, all while preserving most of his army. Because of Bolton's mistakes (intentional or not), Starks probably lost much more men then they should have. While Bolton was probably not planning betrayal yet, he may have deliberately weakened armies of other Northern lords, in order to improve his post-war position. All at the expense of Starks and North, of course.

Other thing I'll note here is Bolton's lack of use of something Sun Tzu calls potential energy. Tywin was unaware of Robb's plans and disdainfully thought of him as green and untested boy who wants to play war. Basically, Tywin expected Robb to make all kinds of beginner's mistakes, so why not use it? Why not deliberately feed Tywin with "knowledge" enemy general is green and unskilled, just to encourage over-arrogance in him? For example, if Roose had not engaged Tywin at all, Tywin would have thought Pup is too scared to play with lions and maybe initiated the attack himself? If Roose simply sent mobile troops to harrass edges of Tywin's army without engaging in full combat, Tywin would have believed Pup wants to fight, but he's too afraid to do so, and, again, maybe do something reckless and stupid. Hell, if Roose deliberatley left large hole on his right flank (or left flank, or centre or anywhere), Tywin would attribute it to Robb's lack of skill, not to potential trap. Instead of using this potential energy, Roose simply ordered his tired men to engage numerically superior and batter rested enemy.

[Lord Damian]

Edmure did not have the benefit of having his uncle Brynden be there to train him up and teach him the proper way to fight and lead men. Hoster, from what has been said was formidable but took a turn for the worse after the Rebellion and Brynden went to the Vale. Edmure, hence is a "gallant fool", good hearted, brave but an idiot none the less. He also has or had the least defendable territory, The Riverlands. i agree with earlier posters, Robb took it to Tywin and Ser Jaime and humiliated the Lannisters to the point Tywin was so desperate to get rid of Robb, he concocted the Red Wedding and gambled that he and his house would never be blamed for the violation of guest rights. Wow.

[Frey Pie]

War in the Riverlands - The North Strikes Back

Great post Nyrhex. The simple answer for me is-Roose had treachery in his heart from the off. This suspicion has been confirmed by Ran in another thread. Roose is always looking out for number one. I think Robbs reasoning for putting him in command was sound-hes cunning, calculating and experienced. Hes also been a loyal bannerman to the Starks all his life. The last Bolton rebellion was 1000 years ago so no reason really to suspect. In hindsight someone like a Glover would have been a better choice. But looking at Tywin and what they know of him Roose seems like the perfect foil

I dont think Tywin going North was a problem. He was sat their to cut off any advance on KL IIRC, and its of no worth to Tywin to go North-itd take to long to get their. Roose had a number of options but he chose the worst. The only thing he did right was holding Tywin up. Why didnt he take his time marching? Why didnt he set up a defensive position and try to invite the attack from a fortified area? Why didnt he manouever for position where his lack of cavalry wouldnt be such a hindrance? Roose is smart. Theres only one reason i can see-Roose was a traitor from the off. At the very least he didnt care if he won and was expending rivals on purpose

[Frey Pie]

His attack at Riverrun could also have failed, though. In the same manner as his eastern army under Roose Bolton could have gotten destroyed completely by Tywin since they were so outmatched in terms of cavalry (and almost were). If any of those two things happened in his original plan it would have been a catastrophe too, and I don't see either scenario as more likely than the other.

Yeah there were upsides with that course of action too, but I don't think they outweigh what he could have gained with the other. Though your last point is very good; Robb (presumably?) didn't know how crazy and weird Lysa was and thought that as long as he could remove the most immediate threat, which was Jaime sieging Riverrun, the Vale would eventually join the war and let him safely finish off Tywin with huge numerical superiority and a lot better strategic positions afterwards. That's true.

Mmh, I don't think Roose can be blamed too much for that failure, even though he didn't perform well either. Since Robb never voices any complaints about Roose seeking a pitched battle with Tywin that was probably what Robb had intended too, unnecessary as it may seem.

It seems like using those dots messes up quoting, by the way. Took me a while to figure out, haha.

See my post above on Roose. Robb doesnt know the ins and outs of the battle. Roose could have played a smart game and still lost to the formidable Tywin

If Roose is obliterated i dont see it as being a killer blow. Say only 5000 make it to the Twins. Tywins still holed up in the east. The North is safe and Robb has the power of the Riverlands to call on now.

Nobody knew Lysa was batshit insane. He repeatedly sent word asking for help. Tywin most certainly would have expected 15-20000 Valemen to join the war, and indeed we know they wanted to. I honestly feel RR was more important. As i said i dont think Robb could capture tywin-hes too smart and too careful. Even if Robb beats him, Tywin can retreat with his reserve and join Jaime at RR. RR could even have fallen and so Tywin has a strong HQ and hostages. Robbs road to KL is open but hes not interested in that and its a noose around his head anyway if he decides to go there. Tywin can get reinforcements from the West and Robbs stuck. Its all about the positioning for me. That and the fact that RR opens up huge reserves of men for Robb