Why did Varys tell Aerys to close the city gates?

[chrisdaw]

Jaime's recollection of Varys' reaction to Aerys opening the gates and Varys' own retelling of the children being murdered during the sack suggests to me he was completely genuine in not wanting Aerys to open the gates.

[Lord_Tyrell]

I ike to believe that he was a believer in Rhaegar and was hoping RT will topple his dad or aeris would just die.

If there is one person in the Seven Kingdoms who wasn't a Rhaegar supporter, it was Varys. Rhaegar was liked by everyone before Robert's Rebellion (even by Robert himself for a while), but Varys played Aerys against Rhaegar from the moment he arrived in King's Landing. I think that he wanted Rhaegar eliminated before he could unite the realm into a new age of glory, and instead poisoned his father against him in order to make the realm bleed and lead to the end of the Targaryen dynasty.

[Lord_Tyrell]

Varys may have been anti-Targ, but I doubt he wanted King's Landing to be sacked and for all the smallfolk to suffer as they did. He knew what Tywin was capable of doing and he was proved correct.

I actually find it hard to believe that Varys didn't know about the Wildfyre though, to where if Tywin laid siege to the city (and then with Ned and Robert coming in right behind him), Aerys would certainly have the time to burn it from within. I'd say the results could have been worse if it took hours for them to lay siege to the city, since I think it's very feasible that regardless of Jaime's intervention, the pyromancer wouldn't have made it in time to light the wildfyre in the city since the Lannister forces and Ned came in less than 5 minutes after Jaime killed Aerys. So without Jaime, if Tywin laid siege to the city, Aerys would have for sure burnt down the whole city.

[Lord_Tyrell]

I don't necessarily believe the Blackfyre theory (or any theory), but if Varys is part of a long-term subversive plot to finally succeed in putting a Blackfyre on the throne, wouldn't it make sense for him to advise to close the gates?

One of two things could have happened: The Lannisters easily win the city with minimal losses, OR, Aerys trusts Varys, closes the city, and causes significantly more losses on BOTH sides.

Thus, by trying to keep the gates closed, he would theoretically extend the battle for King's Landing, weakening all sides, which will help him down the road.

Good post as well.

[thetitansbastard]

You gotta remember how damn calculated the guy is.

[otherbeef]

If there is one person in the Seven Kingdoms who wasn't a Rhaegar supporter, it was Varys. Rhaegar was liked by everyone before Robert's Rebellion (even by Robert himself for a while), but Varys played Aerys against Rhaegar from the moment he arrived in King's Landing. I think that he wanted Rhaegar eliminated before he could unite the realm into a new age of glory, and instead poisoned his father against him in order to make the realm bleed and lead to the end of the Targaryen dynasty.

but again, the reason Varys was brought to King's Landing in the first place was because Aerys didnt trust Rhaegar. And Rhaegar did intend for Aerys to be removed to it isn't like Varys was making things up.

[Lord_Tyrell]

but again, the reason Varys was brought to King's Landing in the first place was because Aerys didnt trust Rhaegar. And Rhaegar did intend for Aerys to be removed to it isn't like Varys was making things up.

Link on Rhaegar planning his father's removal?

[Fedelede]

red or black, a dragon is still a dragon.

It's either that or he might've thought that drawing out the war to a larger degree might've weakened more lords. KL was like to fall anyways, even if it took longer with a siege.

[chrisdaw]

It's very possible Rhaegar and the Citadel/Southron ambitions plots were real things. If Varys was passing on information to Aerys concerning these plots in good faith it may have been what appeared to Jaime, Stannis and Barristan as false information designed to stir Aerys up.

[otherbeef]

Link on Rhaegar planning his father's removal?

his discussion with Jaime proved he had those plans, plus we already have an example of a tourney that is a ruse for gathering support for a rebellion to meet in Dunk and Egg.

[otherbeef]

It's very possible Rhaegar and the Citadel/Southron ambitions plots were real things. If Varys was passing on information to Aerys concerning these plots in good faith it may have been what appeared to Jaime, Stannis and Barristan as false information designed to stir Aerys up.

right, how would Jaime or Stannis or Barristan know who was true and who was false in the first better than Varys? certainly Varys knows more about people than they do. none of them are "game players" but are all the straightforward type.

[joluoto]

I don't think the "Aegon" plot existed yet at this point. I think the Blackfyre plan was for Westeros to rally against a mad king under the Blackfyre banner. However it backfired badly when Robert's Rebellion begun. Varys saw years of planning completely ruined when the rebels won. He was probably partly worried about his own skin, and partly still tought there might be ways for Aerys to win (and thus the Blackfyre plot to continue as planned) if Tywin wasn't let in. The Tyrrel army and the Redwyne fleet were still around, and perhaps Varys tought they could still come to the aid of King's Landing.

((In many ways I'm playing Devil's Advocate. I'm far from convinced that the BF theory is true, but it does seem very interesting. I think it's most likely Aegon is a fake, but I'm not that convinced he has to be a BF).

[unSonofStannis]

Because they all had heard by then that Rhaegar had been defeated so he knew Tywin was there to finish up for Robert and sack the city and put all his Council people's heads on spikes but when the gates were opened he went to one of his hideouts.

[Lord_Tyrell]

his discussion with Jaime proved he had those plans, plus we already have an example of a tourney that is a ruse for gathering support for a rebellion to meet in Dunk and Egg.

Dunk and Egg takes place long before the series does.

[Maia]

I ike to believe that he was a believer in Rhaegar and was hoping RT will topple his dad or aeris would just die.

Who, do you think, tipped Aerys off to whatever was planned at Harrenhal? Who did what he could to prevent Aerys from being being removed during the Rebellion, when said removal would have saved Targaryens?

"Varys was only doing his job"?! Please. Everybody could see that Aerys was ruining his family and the realm and that "good of the realm" needed him gone ASAP.

No, Varys was clearly doing what he could to destabilize the Targaryen regime, as he later did with Baratheon and Lannister ones. And, yea, his shaving his head seems awfully suspicious, in the light of Dunk and Egg novellas.

Re: Blackfyre pretendent at the time of Rebellion, I'd like to point out failure Steffon Baratheon's mission to find a bride for Rhaegar in the Free Cities. We now know that there is no shortage of Valyrian nobility there, so he must have been looking for somebody more exclusive than that - a Blackfyre descendent. And either didn't find one or was turned down.

Ironically, fAegon is probably son of a woman who could have been Rhaegar's wife, if not for long-standing family grudges.

I agree that fAegon couldn't have been the claimant Varys and Illyrio had in mind at the time of Rebellion. There must have been somebody else, who inconveniently died a couple of years after. FAegon was 4-5 when the plot to bring him to the throne started in earnest and Connington was brought abroad.

As Varys arguing to keep the gates closed, IMHO that was because of wildfire. Personally, I suspect that Aerys didn't really expect or want to be saved by Tywin (again), but let him in so that they could roast together. Aerys getting reborn as a dragon and finally proving his superiority over merely human Tywin in the process, heh.

[chrisdaw]

Varys is not questioning what is in the best interest of the realm at that stage, he is just doing his job, which is to serve his king, as terrible a king as he may be, Varys is no different to the KG, most of which served faithfully despite the difficult circumstances.

[Jon of the Dead]

Now that the Varys and (f)Aegon threads are the latest fashion, I've decided to resurrect this old thread of mine.

I still believe that Aegon is fake, but this still doesn't add up. I know Varys wanted to save face by giving "honest" advice, unlike the traitor Pycelle. But it was just too risky. If Aerys had listened, Ned's army would've get to the city before the Sack and he would've probably sent Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia to exile like he wanted to do with Cersei.

UNLESS, this was Varys original plan. Maybe once the real Aegon was in exile, Varys/Illyrio would discreetly dispose of him (and Elia and Rhaenys maybe), and then he would still pass (f)Aegon as the real thing, but people would believe he's the real thing because he was supposed to be alive.

I think I just answered my own question :P But what do you guys think?

[Morienthar]

Now that the Varys and (f)Aegon threads are the latest fashion, I've decided to resurrect this old thread of mine.

I still believe that Aegon is fake, but this still doesn't add up. I know Varys wanted to save face by giving "honest" advice, unlike the traitor Pycelle. But it was just too risky. If Aerys had listened, Ned's army would've get to the city before the Sack and he would've probably sent Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia to exile like he wanted to do with Cersei.

UNLESS, this was Varys original plan. Maybe once the real Aegon was in exile, Varys/Illyrio would discreetly dispose of him (and Elia and Rhaenys maybe), and then he would still pass (f)Aegon as the real thing, but people would believe he's the real thing because he was supposed to be alive.

I think I just answered my own question :P But what do you guys think?

This is probably it,But there was probably a motive of self preservation in this too.

[Pero the first of His name]

Varys is pro-Targ, he saved Aegon.

Illyrio replaced rAegon with a Blackfyre descendant. Illyrio is pro-Blackfyre.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

He was probably interested in saving his skin at that point.

The OP raises an intriguing question, but I would not dismiss this as an important motive.