Why Aegon might not be fake after all

[Panos Targaryen]

The majority of the people here believe that Aegon is either a Blackfyre, probably Illyrio's and his now-dead wife's Serra's son, or some random kid with Valyrian looks, all part of Varys's and Ilyrio's plan to put a Blackfyre on the throne.

This plan however seems extremely risky to me. What are the chances that Ilyrio's wife\mistress would give birth to a child with Targ features a few months before the real Aegon was born? Tyrion mentions that Aegon looks 15-16, so he's the right age. Even if he isn't Ilyrio's son, Blackfyre or not, finding a kid with Valyrian looks and whose age is close to the real Aegon's seem completely based in chance to me.

Varys is a schemer and a planner, he wouldn't base his entire plan on whether he will find a kid who is both the same age and looks like Aegon, That's a risk a deliberate planner like Varys wouldn't take. Aegon could actually be real.

[Lord Flashheart]

Well I have always thought Aegon was a fake, but you have convinced me otherwise.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think the plan was ultimately one about opportunity. As in, if they didn't have someone like Aegon — a Blackfyre who also fits the physical description — they'd be trying another approach. The plan they're carrying out is based on what they have to work with.

Part of the Serra/Illyrio theory suggests that Serra was a Blackfyre and Illyrio involved their son in the plot for her sake or because she asked it of him. In which case, if Illyrio hadn't married Serra and/or they hadn't had a son, Illyrio wouldn't be involved in the plot.

So no, I don't think this means that Aegon is real. And since you make a point of saying it'd be hard to find a kid who looks like Aegon (which would actually be substantially easier in Essos, given that a lot of people there are of Valyrian descent), why do you (apparently) believe that they found an Aegon look-alike in Pisswater?

[Panos Targaryen]

Well I have always thought Aegon was a fake, but you have convinced me otherwise.

Lol when I post these ideas I never think I would actually convince anyone of them being true. This is pretty rare :D

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Well I have always thought Aegon was a fake, but you have convinced me otherwise.

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic. :P

[Panos Targaryen]

I think the plan was ultimately one about opportunity. As in, if they didn't have someone like Aegon a Blackfyre who also fits the physical description they'd be trying another approach. The plan they're carrying out is based on what they have to work with.

Part of the Serra/Illyrio theory suggests that Serra was a Blackfyre and Illyrio involved their son in the plot for her sake or because she asked it of him. In which case, if Illyrio hadn't married Serra and/or they hadn't had a son, Illyrio wouldn't be involved in the plot.

So no, I don't think this means that Aegon is real. And since you make a point of saying it'd be hard to find a kid who looks like Aegon (which would actually be substantially easier in Essos, given that a lot of people there are of Valyrian descent), why do you (apparently) believe that they found an Aegon look-alike in Pisswater?

Babies are more alike to each other when they're young. Aegon was a newborn baby at the time, finding another baby with blue eyes is enough to fool Elia and the Mountain. No one would notice the difference with two babies.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Babies are more alike to each other when they're young. Aegon was a newborn baby at the time, finding another baby with blue eyes is enough to fool Elia and the Mountain. No one would notice the difference with two babies.

He was young but he was hardly a newborn. He was developed enough for him to have explicit Valyrian features. And if you think any mother can be fooled by a baby that isn't hers or wouldn't recognize her own child, you're grossly mistaken. That's simply ridiculous.

[Lord Flashheart]

Babies are more alike to each other when they're young. Aegon was a newborn baby at the time, finding another baby with blue eyes is enough to fool Elia and the Mountain. No one would notice the difference with two babies.

Are you seriously saying that a mother wouldn't be able to identify their child?

[Panos Targaryen]

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic. :P

Probably, if he actually was conviced he would have commented a bit on my "theory", instead of dead-panning his agreement like that.

[houseHB]

Does not matter if Aegon is real or not if he has the back up he has the power will not matter if he is real or not. "Power lies where we think it lies"

[Lord Flashheart]

Does not matter if Aegon is real or not if he has the back up he has the power will not matter if he is real or not. "Power lies where we think it lies"

Exactly. Real or not, as soon as he landed in westeros and took Storms End he became real.

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic. :P

What is sarcasm?

Probably, if he actually was conviced he would have commented a bit on my "theory", instead of dead-panning his agreement like that.

I just had nothing to add to this besides my agreement.

[Panos Targaryen]

Are you seriously saying that a mother wouldn't be able to identify their child?

Why not? Newborns look very similar the first few days of their birth. And even if she did, who would she tell? I assume the baby switch took place a few hours before the sack of KL, so with all the chaos and panic poor Elia had nowhere to turn to.

[jordanmp16]

I personally believe that aegon is real simply because varys would have no reason to fabricate a lie to a man he was about to kill (kevan). Plus I just think having rhaegar's son back in the mix is awesome. Also blackfyre or not I want him to come into possession of the valyrian sword blackfyre, shit would be awesome

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Why not? Newborns look very similar the first few days of their birth. And even if she did, who would she tell? I assume the baby switch took place a few hours before the sack of KL, so with all the chaos and panic poor Elia had nowhere to turn to.

I'm sorry but I can't take your argument seriously if you sincerely think that a mother would not recognize her own child. That's insanity.

And I stand by what I suggested: It's probably easier to find a Valyrian-looking child in Essos than to find a Valyrian-looking baby in Pisswater. Half the whores in Volantis are dead ringers for Dany, I don't see why the men would be any different.

I personally believe that aegon is real simply because varys would have no reason to fabricate a lie to a man he was about to kill (kevan). Plus I just think having rhaegar's son back in the mix is awesome. Also blackfyre or not I want him to come into possession of the valyrian sword blackfyre, shit would be awesome

He did not lie to Kevan.

[Panos Targaryen]

I'm sorry but I can't take your argument seriously if you sincerely think that a mother would not recognize her own child. That's insanity.

And I stand by what I suggested: It's probably easier to find a Valyrian-looking teenager in Essos than to find a Valyrian-looking baby in Pisswater. Half the whores in Volantis are dead ringers for Dany, I don't see why the men would be any different.

He did not lie to Kevan.

A blond baby with blue eyes could pass as Valyrian. As for Elia not recognizing the baby, maybe instead of switching the two babies, Varys told Elia that he would safeguard her baby if anything happened to KL, and she gave him to Varys to protect him, like Jon with Gilly?

[Castellan]

Exactly. Real or not, as soon as he landed in westeros and took Storms End he became real.

What is sarcasm?.

Sarcasm is something which is not the same as irony, although they could have co-occurred in your statement.

Hope this clears it up.

[Panos Targaryen]

I'm sorry but I can't take your argument seriously if you sincerely think that a mother would not recognize her own child. That's insanity.

And I stand by what I suggested: It's probably easier to find a Valyrian-looking child in Essos than to find a Valyrian-looking baby in Pisswater. Half the whores in Volantis are dead ringers for Dany, I don't see why the men would be any different.

He did not lie to Kevan.

Although I believe Aegon is real, I agree Varys did not lie to Kevan. He ommited information, but he didn't explicitly deny or confirm who Aegon really is.

[StannisBamfatheon]

I've always kinda wondered what the end game for the whole (F)Aegon scheme anyhow. Like what do Varys and Illyrio do should they succeed? Rule through him as there puppet? Or simply retire to Casterly Rock on their Westeros 401K'S or something. Either way I hope they fail. Can't stand that Varys/Illyrio continue to destabilize an already ravaged country for their own ambitions and a dynasty that fell 20 years ago. Who cares about Targs/Blackfyres anymore Westeros has way bigger problems. This is like when the WWF brought back Ultimate Warrior and nobody cared.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

A blond baby with blue eyes could pass as Valyrian. As for Elia not recognizing the baby, maybe instead of switching the two babies, Varys told Elia that he would safeguard her baby if anything happened to KL, and she gave him to Varys to protect him, like Jon with Gilly?

Then explain why Elia was found clutching a baby that wasn't even hers instead of being with her actual daughter, who was alone on a completely different floor. The point that you still haven't addressed is that your argument seems to be predicated largely on how difficult it would be to find a Valyrian-looking kid in Essos (which as I have said, wouldn't be that hard even if they had to find a random kid), even though if Aegon is real, it means they had to have found a Valyrian-looking baby in Pisswater, which would be substantially harder. Even if Aegon is just a random child of no relation to them, it still makes more sense for them to find an impostor in Essos than in King's Landing's shithole neighborhood.

I gotta tell you, you're not exactly putting up anything new in the fake Aegon debate. Seen it all before, shredded it all before.

[Jon of the Dead]

Well, personally, I think Varys and Illyrio were plotting the ultimate demise of the Targaryen dinasty for years. I think that was their original plan. Seating a Blackfyre pretending to be a Targaryen on the Iron Throne is just the cherry on top, an opportunity too good to pass up, and incredibly ironic.