Greymoon

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  1. Assuming R+L=J, how will Jon's role change?

    imo, the knowledge of R+L will give Jon a good, legitimate reason to declare for fAegon. After Stannis's defeat and Jon's return, the north will rise again and look for a leader. The Riverlands will too... If Jon and Sansa have any sense, they'll bend the knee to fAegon instead of taking up Robb's crown.... and if told the truth of Jon's birth, fAegon might acknowledge Jon as his "brother".... In that case, it doesn't really matter whether Lyanna and Rhaegar were married or not. If fAegon is a popular/beloved King, all that matters in terms of Jon's status is fAegon's word on the subject. After the King's death, having been acknowledged as a son of Rhaegar, Jon could possibly take up fAegon's crown... So to answer the OP's questions.... "does Jon have any claims?" : on the IT, as a Targaryen? probably, but the claim doesn't matter much unless Jon has an army, a figure of authority (a king/a septon/a maester), a council / loyal lords to back it up. And since the Targaryen dynasty was toppled, some would argue that only true born Baratheons have a claim on the IT anyway... Jon is more likely to have a claim on the north, by way of Robb's will.... and because the North Remembers. "how will Jon prove his parentage?" Proof imo, is only necessary if you lack the army / lords to back your claim.... Jon only needs to persuade the right people that he is a son of Rhaegar - namely, he needs to persuade Jon Connington (who in turns persuades fAegon). And I don't think Jon Connington will need much in terms of proof, before being convinced of Jon's parentage. Connington was alive during the rebellion and knew Rhaegar much better than any other character still alive in the books. He also knows of Rhaegar's long absence from King's Landing, of Rhaegar's relationship to Elia Martell - and of Rhaegar's possible infatuation with Lyanna Stark.... so he has key elements in his hands, already.... further, if Jon Snow only looks a tiny little bit like Rhaegar, Connington is sure to notice...(hint in the text: Areo Hotah notes that all of the Sand Snakes have Prince Oberyn's eyes, and Connington compares fAegon's eyes to Rhaegar's, and finds that Rhaegar's were much darker). And it would make some narrative sense, in a way, too. Connington was brought into the plot so he could vouch for fAegon's identity. Towards the end of Dance, we start having hints that Connington is not as much a fool as he appears, however, and that he might well know of the deception, but decided to go along with it. With Jon Snow joining them and relying on Jon Connington to vouch for him, Connington would be in the very awkward position of putting a false Targaryen on the throne, while Rhaegar's true son is right there. And he couldn't just turn around and declare that fAegon is false - because at that point, declaring that fAegon is false would harm the war effot, discredit Connington - and put in question Jon Snow's parentage as well. As to the last question, how will R+L change westeros....in terms of claims, it won't change much until fAegon is defeated...I'm of the opinion that Dany will come to westeros as an invader, a destroyer of the peace that "Good King Aegon crafted". If R+L=J results in Jon allying with fAegon and believing fAegon to be his brother and, if Dany kills fAegon.... it follows, that after fAegon's death, Dany and Jon fight each other. Another small irony.
  2. R+L=J v.160

    J. Stargaryen covered parts of that already.... I don't necessarily support the idea that there was a secret agreement between Rhaegar and Rickard, but, I have other objections... Since when is it a good idea to shelter your love in an abandoned watch/guard tower on the dornish border, when your own wife is dornish? a guard tower would have little comfort, it would be spartan with only the basic infrastructure meant to help guard the border. Abandoned during times of peace, there would be nothing in there to accommodate any sort of guests. Not to mention that Houses Manwoody and Fowler are meant to guard that pass anyway. House Fowler holds the title of "warden of the pass". Both houses are sworn to House Martell. Don't tell me that during war time (during RR) neither houses actually did it's duty and guarded that pass…all in all, it was a pretty awful hiding spot, if you were hiding from the Martells or didn’t want anyone to know about your illicit love affair. It is more likely imo, that Rhaegar got stranded at the tower of joy while trying to enter dorne, to find shelter with his in-laws. Whether the Martells took offense because Rhaegar somehow had Lyanna with him, or whether they didn't want to commit treason after all because Elia might have been endangered, I don’t know… Still I think the original plan was for Rhaegar to prepare his coup while in dornish territory... The history of dorne is a history of resistance and armed rebellion. It would seem like a good place to start a coup against the Iron Throne.... anyway...I believe he was refused shelter and had to renegotiated Dorne's involvement in that political coup against his father....and later, in the war. Thus explaining his long absence from King's Landing. As for the timing, I find it suspicious that Rhaegar left so shortly after Aegon's birth. Well, sort of. On the one hand, it's a good timing, finally he has an heir...an heir that is not Viserys.... that's important if you mean to commit treason against your king... on the other hand though, we have no indication that Rhaegar actually changed his mind concerning Aegon being the PtwP... so the apparent neglect toward his promised prince, his wife Elia and his daughter Rhaenys, seems to indicate that there was a last minute change of plans. This change of plans can be explained with the rescue theory. Imagine you have been plotting against your father for years, you've finally gathered the allies you need (Harrenhal), you finally have an heir (Aegon's birth), and you are just about ready to stage your coup -- and just like that, everything you've worked for risks unravelling because the King decides to kidnap the daughter of a great house...the logical thing to do, is take matters into your own hands, so that when the conflict breaks out it happens on your terms (think Varys and Illyrio...) Why not bring Lyanna to Winterfell then, if the idea was to get her to safety, away from Aerys, in order to prevent conflict? because by rescuing her, he defied Aerys, and set things in motion. He had no time to waste. The plan had always been to go to Dorne and organize his “resistance” from there, so he did... and Lyanna was brought along for lack of a better solution. Later, they fell in bed together, or whatever.
  3. R+L=J v.160

    Sorry to jump into the conversation like that, but.... I too am of the opinion that Rhaegar's motives were first and foremost political. There are many hints in the text, just like J.Stargaryen pointed out...and in that light, it makes sense to look the events at Harrenhal as politicaly motivated, as well. We have a few characters that are mentioned quite often in the text, characters that seem important to the story but haven't made an appearance, yet. Ashara Dayne is such a character. She may be dead, of course, but that's not the point. The point is that she gets mentioned a lot and that she had something to do with Harrenhal. Her role was an important one, imo. She didn't get mentioned in Meera's tale just because she was in love with a Stark. That may even be a red herring, a cover story. We know that Aerys came to Harrenhal, so having a council, meeting with different people to openly plot against the king wasn't really an option anymore. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't a covert operation taking place, right beneath Aerys's nose. And that's precisely where Ashara comes in. She was, imo, the one to gather/pass on information. As a companion to Elia, as sister to one of Rhaegar's oldest friend, as an unmarried, dornish woman (and whatever prejudice is attached to the label), she was in an ideal position to pass on information. She was free to speak to Elia without raising suspicion, she was free to speak to Arthur without raising suspicion, she was free to dance with the sons of great houses, without raising suspicion. And she did dance. She had multiple dance partners, even. Ashara having been an active player in whatever political folly Rhaegar was engaged in would also account for a terrible feeling of guilt – leading to her suicide.
  4. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    Well, as this is the question I'm asking in the OP, I'm not really required to answer I think. It's a question, that's for sure.
  5. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    But the Tyrells are overlords of the Reach, the Redwynes are sworn to them. That's not quite the same situation with Lysa and the Tullys. Lysa governs the Vale, as widow of Jon Arryn, while the Tullys govern the riverlands. I understand your argument, but the situation is not actually comparable, imo.
  6. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    But we know GRRM is fond of metaphors and imagery! ...have you bothered reading the food code thread? People complain about GRRM's fascination with food all the time, but surely, food porn is a good way to pass along hidden messages. Isn't it? I'm not saying it's 100 % imagery at every meal, but... some things are recurrent, Arbor Gold is one of them, for example.
  7. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    Are you comparing Lysa Tully's political clout to that of the Queen of Thorns? I think the situation is a bit different.
  8. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    Besides that Olenna Redwyne is the mother of Mace Tyrell. Should we treat these houses as separate entities?
  9. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    Great, thanks for the quote! ... but which Tyrells? Illyrio has some wine casks from Lord Redwyne's private store...That would seem to imply that House Redwyne is involved in the plot.... yet, how can that be, if Mace Tyrell are not? Is Olenna Redwyne acting against her own son?
  10. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    I'm saying that Tyrells are playing a double game, that they are unsure of their Lannister allies and have a plan B, so to say, one that involves fAegon. They are keeping options open, should things not go their way with the Lannisters. And that's the case by the end of Feast. So, why involve themselves in the Wot5k? because the fAegon option was unknown to them at the time the war started. As for the rest... People do not always wear their house colors...Red and black are Targaryen colors... Yet Jaime, a Lannister, wears red and black at the feast in Winterfell....that said, the choice of dress for Lazy Leo is not, imo, a hazard. Yes, it's the Tyrell colors... but he's also training to become a maester, isn't he? so he could have worn other nondescript robes. The importance of Leo's dress is to do with the overall context of that chapter and other inter and extra textual clues. We know green is the color of Aegon II (plus his dragon was gold), while black is the color of Rhaenyra. Via Drogon, black seems to be the color of Dany... and via Rhaegal, green seems to be the color of fAegon - that is, if you believe that fAegon will ride Rhaegal. But even if you don't, green as established in this thread as the color of usurpers. In the books, green is heavily associated to the Lannisters.... So we have Green = usurper and Black = true heir of the Targayren dynasty...now we go back to the context, within the chapter. As mentioned above, the acolytes are speaking about dragons. In particular, they are talking about Daenerys, and toasting to her name... During this talk, Aegon, son of Rhaegar also gets mentioned and just before Lazy Leo makes his appearances, the acolytes mention treason and Varys. Later, Leo desires a cup of Arbor Gold (lies, a drink favored by Littlefinger) and speaks of eating suckling pig in plum sauce (duplicity and king)... that same meal is later eaten by Illyrio Mopatis, the other master mind behind the fAegon plot. Much much later in the books, we see how the Lannister and Tyrell alliance becomes increasingly strained. This culminates with Cersei accusing Margaery of adultery... straining the relationship is also Loras getting heavily injured during the storming of dragonstone... to never be seen again. All reports we have about Loras are second-hand reports.... Events in a Dance with Dragon and in Feast are happening in parallel, during the same time frame. At the end of Dance, fAegon lands in westeros... who are his "friends in the reach"? if not the Tyrells, thatare kin to the Redwynes and the Hightowers?
  11. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    One eyed characters? Like... Euron Greyjoy? Brynden Rivers? Lazy Leo actually reminds me a bit of Satin. Satin comes from Oldtown too... anyway, thoughts on the Tyrells allegiance?
  12. Tyrells, Varys and fAegon

    The Tyrells will side with fAegon, if they haven't already jumped ship by the beginning of feast... ...at the beginning of feast, fAegon still intended to marry Danaerys and I believe the Spider was working to gain allies for them both, as a married pair.... But since fAegon landed in westeros without the dragon queen, the support Varys gained will go sorely to him. There's a few things that have bothered me in the past. The Golden Company has "friends in the reach". Illyrio has casks of wine from Lord Redwyne's own private stock.... Hightowers, Redwynes, Tyrells...are one big intermarried family. The Queen of Thorns is a Redwyne by birth... Alerie Hightower is wife of Mace Tyrell and mother of Margaery. I was re-reading the prologue chapter of feast, just yesterday, and found that something is up with Lazy Leo... Lets see how he is introduced to us...The acolytes speak about dragons, about Rhaegar's young son and about Dany.... The comment about the Spider is followed almost immediately by the introduction of Lazy Leo. That's not enough to make Lazy Leo an agent of Varys, of course... though I'd draw your attention to the color of his clothes. Green and gold.... green and gold are the colors of Aegon II, from the Dance of Dragons.Aegon II was half a hightower, and he usurped the throne of Rhaenyra... fAegon is bound to usurp the throne as well, in Dany's eyes at the very least. (cf the emerald thread, green = usuper) Arbor gold means lies, there's plenty of textual evidence for that in the food code thread, while plum sauce and plums in general hint toward duplicity.... interestingly enough, early on in DwD, Tyrion and Illyrio Mopatis share a meal of sucking pig in plum sauce, too. The suckling pig, it's been theorized means "king"... I'd guess, this particular imagery stands for fAegon, in both cases. fAegon is a suckling pig in plum sauce. Lastly, the "Checkered Hazard" calls to mind a chest board, a "game of thrones". I wasted my last stag on supper, another poster back on the food code thread suggested this as a metaphor for the Purple Wedding. I wouldn't go as far as to say that Lazy Leo works for Varys, truth be told. But there's certainly reason enough to think that the Tyrells are involved in the fAegon plot.... just in this chapter, we have an explicit mention of Varys, the master mind of the plot, a mention of Aegon's smashed skull...a small wink toward Aegon II of the Dance... and Leo eating the same sort of food that Illyrio eats... Whatever the case might be, there are strong hints in this prologue that the Tyrells are playing a double game... Much later, Loras Tyrell offers to besiege Dragonstone...I wonder....was Dragonstone ever intended for the Lannisters? Or was it intended as a gift to fAegon, as a symbol for a new alliance? And how to reconcile all this with Margaery's marriage to Tommen?
  13. 11 Reasons to Read the Books

    Good article, I agree with most of it. Especially considering the omitted characters and plot-holes. .... don't get me wrong. I understand the arguments of time, budget and different medias. But many of the major changes in season 4 and five, could have been avoided. For example, Bran's arc beyond the wall and his unnecessary stay at Craster's keep...if introducing Coldhands was a problem, why not just have Jojen lead the way to the three eyed crow, in a much more simpler travelogue. Lay it thick on the physiological angle, on the despair, the cold and the hunger, and you have the stuff of a psycho-thriller. Mind-control and cannibalism are two recurrent themes in Bran's arc... to render that plot (sans Coldhands) more interesting, wouldn't have required a lot of money, just a great deal of good directing. They could even have added a few Others and find a way to show us the city of the undead or whatever that was, without going to Craster's keep. What made the stay at Craster's keep necessary for Bran's arc? What made the whole sequence of Craster's keep necessary at all? It cost money, it required casting more actors and it served no purpose, but to add more violence and yet another failed meeting between Jon and Bran.... that's clearly the work on people pressed for time, that had to make a decision because of production schedule and went with the best suggestion they had... but it makes little sense. Similarly, I question the decision to take the story to the vale in the first place, if that particular plot point was never going to be fully explored. That's the thing. The adaptation costs money, no one denies that. But clearly, some of the choices the show runners made have not been thought through completely. They shouldn't have bothered with the Vale if the end-goal was to have Sansa in Winterfell. Really. That's just wasting money they could have used on another character arc. You either go a completely different direction, or you follow the books. But this strange thing of doing things half and half, isn't working. Others have already pointed out that thing with Thorne and Jon Snow.... I mean... Where are Jon's ships? Shouldn't they have landed at East-Watch? How come Jon suddenly finds himself before the gates of Castle Black and on the wrong side of the wall, no less?
  14. Jon was born in starfall

    How can you say R+L= J is speculation and then believe in R+L= D ? Dany's birth was a public event, she was born on Dragonstone, eight to nine months after Jon's birth, in 284. Unless everyone is lying about Dany being born on Dragonstone and Rhaella being her mother... I just don't see it. When do you suppose Jon was born? according to Catelyn he is younger than Robb. If he is younger than Robb, it means he was probably fathered after Catelyn's marriage to Ned, so Brandon was already dead and the war was already underway. In that case, he cannot be Brandons, unless you start doubting Jon's age as well.... For children born full-term, its not the size that gives away their age, but the development of their motor skills and muscle. Personally, I trust Catelyn's judgement but you are free to doubt her...
  15. Jon was born in starfall

    Isn't the tower joy a guard tower? an abandoned guard tower? Guard towers would be spartan, with little comfort and little light flowing in. It looks more like temporary shelter than anything else. Even if it was a large structure, if it was abandoned and ruined, Rhaegar would have had to have provisions brought in, and not just food but things like wood, he'd have to bring in some furniture etc. The lack of facilities one expects in a ruined guard tower + the lack of an apparent maester/mid wife present on site, does seem to contradict the common assumption that Rhaegar and Lyanna were at the ToJ the whole time and that Jon was born there. This requires some thorough planning. If we go with the rescue theory though, there was little time for planning. Lyanna giving birth at Starfall would actually explain the reason the Daynes are so very present in the story and yet rarely show up. A bit like Howland Reed. He knows too much. Do they know too much? Was there such a large population at Starfall? This would be about the time Ashara was pregnant. Hiding Ashara's dishonor from onlookers would have given the Daynes a reasonable excuse for confining her in a prison of luxury, with only family and a few loyal servants having access to her. If Ashara was confined away in some tower at Starfall, Lyanna could be confined away with her. Any child born in that tower would have been born in relative secrecy and that goes for Ashara's daughter as well as Lyanna's son. It explains the rumors surrounding Starfall: Wylla gave birth to Ned's son, Ned got Ashara pregnant, Ashara's girl was still born; Ned stole Ashara's son. Jon being at Starfall gives Ned another reason to go there. It event allows us to give a meaning to Lyanna's words. Promise me. This promise can be to actually go fetch her son and take him away before he falls into the hands of some royalists who'd use his claim to prolong the war. Why is Gerold Dayne the most dangerous man in Dorne? Maybe because Doran Martell actually knew what was going on in his own lands and the Daynes are the only ones that can attest to it? With the lord of Starfall barely a teenager and Alyria only a few years older, is it possible that Gerold Dayne is the only Dayne old enough to remember what happened in Dorne, during the rebellion? I'm not saying I believe Jon was born at Starfall, but it's worth considering imo. It's quite possible he was at Starfall at some point after his birth, in any case....