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But WHY Jon Snow. WHY?


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I agree it doesn't make sense. at least, the way Jon went about it. Story-wise, it doesn't even compare to Jaime breaking his oath because Jaime had absolutely no choice. It's not just reversed roles and fates, the reasons are completely different.



Jon was enraged, openly speculated whether or not he was an oathbreaker and deserter, and let his guard down. Then he was stabbed and lost the use of his extremities. Seems like maybe basalisk venom-type poison?


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I had exactly the same feeling when I read this chapter, the act is diametrically opposed to Jon Snow's character development in the first 5 books so there is something the reader doesn't know. My guess is that we'll be getting an extensive summary of the three hour talk with Tormund in which much will be explained. I see 3 options for this:

I. Through A Jon pov chapter (he's not dead)

II. In a Melisandre pov chapter in which she has a chat with Tormund.

III. Another pov character (Sam, Asha, Davos, Theon?) comes to the wall and talks to Tormund.

I'm hoping it's not option number 3 because then we'll be waiting a long time for the answer. I'm convinced that there is a lot more to the Pink Letter than meets the eye but even more to Jon's reaction. As Raegar Targaryen's Ghost pointed out: it doesn't make sense.

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Because deep down Jon is a rash boy who always craved to be a hero and who finally got a decent excuse to pursue his personal revenge, using the Watch as a tool for his own means. The letter was another handy tool to get a decent army of wildlings behind him, without it it may not have worked. The smart thing would've indead be to prepare a defence for when Ramsay comes knocking, but I guess Jon couldn't wait any longer with his revenge.



I really like the parallel drawn with Dany, she also tries very hard to do best for her people, but at the end of aDoD she choses the rash path of more fire and blood, just like Jon. They both tried their hand at ruling, they both failed and now they both chose the "easy" path of war. I don't think his decision that far-fetched plot wise, that's only the case if you believe Jon was an actual good LC.


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If Jon didn't end up going south to fight alongside Robb in AGOT after Ned has been killed,

and he didn't go south after Robb was murdered,

WHY is he going south when he gets the letter from Ramsay/Mance/Stannis/ItDoesntMatter because it just DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

We talk on this forum all the time about who the letter may be written by, and we talk about whether Jon is dead/warging Ghost/warging into the ice cells... but I just can't get past why Jon is leaving. Why does he care enough to abandon his post now?Am I missing something?

:bang:

Your OP mirrors my first reaction to the whole thing, and I had to read that chapter several times to find a way to make sense of it ... until I came to the conclusion that it was written to be senseless. Jon is completely out of character, the letter seems to be written by someone who knows how to get under his skin, and the Pink Letter itself wasn't as detailed as previous letters sent from Ramsay. All of which lead us to theorise/conjecture to no end until the next book comes out.

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Well, if the letter is not a forgery, Ramsay is menacing the Watch.

Not only the institution and its indipendence. He is menacing the task of defending the realms of the men.

Specifically, Ramsay is menacing the very necessary military capacity of Jon's army, menacing to alienate the Thenns.

You cannot promise lands to a people if they marry a girl, and then tell them that you have to let some other dude kill the girl (gruesomly) and so they will not have the lands. The Thenns would be lost to the defense of the realms of men, and in a way that would alienate lots of other Free people fighters too.

Even Tormund would find it difficult to look at Jon's face and feel respect for him if he did so. Probably the only effect of Jon accepting to give up Alys Karstark to Ramsay would be that the Thenns would kill some (or some tens) of watchmen, and leave the Wall for karhold, on a rampage. The Thenn leaders couldn't do anything else while mantaining the respect of their men: if you were a barbarian warrior, would you follow a leader that gives up his wife and land claims because some kneeler wants to keel to some other kneeler?

Second point: Ramsay is playing a political game too. He is asserting dominance (I am the leader in the north, no other leader can exist if they don't submit to me) that is both aimed at the Watch as an institution and at its Stark-born commander. The objective of the message are the whole of the norhterners, the ones living under Ramsay's rule. It is an internal policy thing, completely ingoring the external affairs Jon is worrying about: the Winter coming.

Jon sacrificed all personal to that: the task of the Watch. He abandoned Robb when he was alive and fighting. He forgot his father's execution. He killed Ygritte. And now Ramsay is putting himself right in the way of the task, the defense of the realms of men.

No way Jon is allowing him to.

Ockham's razor can pass now, and cut away anything else from the equation, including Ramsay's attempt at muddying the waters and pretend Jon is doing anything out of personal interest. Regardless of Bowen Marsh's analisys, which come from a cook frightened by the loss of his monastry's quiet kitchen-kingdom. By the way: Bowen hadn't even listened to the letter's reading, he was outside preparing the manslaughter...

Sorry not that I disagree with your analysis but the bolded is incorrect:

"I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome," Jon Snow began. "Thousands of free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving. and we have had reports of dead things in the wood." To his left he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick, Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him..... - Jon observes others including Melisandre & Boroq, tells his plans for Hardhome & then reads the letter and in the ensuing cheering & ruckus .....Yarwick and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them.

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Everyone who says Jon heading south is out of character--you're forgetting that he spent several hours plotting with Tormund before he made his general announcement. GRRM pretty much never glosses over anything, but Jon essentially reads Tormund the pink letter, and then it just says "he and Tormund talked for a couple hours." If that doesn't indicate that there's more going on than meets the eye, then what does?


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Because Robb and Eddard are mature men who have proper training with sword since they were 3, and had allies who could save them if Joffrey and Walder weren't the cunts.



Jon gave Arya a sword, and told her to practice, but he doesn't know if she ever got sword training (Syrio was supposed to be a secret) and she is surrounded by Boltons and Bolton's allies. Also, she was supposed to be a child and there's small chances Arya (potential child Fake Arya, not Jayne with menstruation) could still be raped.


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I think to get the answer you have to look at what choices Jon has and what the situation is on the wall.



To meet Ramsay's terms he must give up:


- Val


- The child that people think is Mance's


- Melisandre


- Stannis's wife


- Stannis's daughter



Needless to say if he meets these terms he will no longer be able to count on any support from any of Stannis's remaining men. He will also likely lose any wildling support, that is assuming that Ramsay doesnt route them and kill them. While it would please the other brothers of the Watch, he wouldnt have anywhere close to the number of people in able to defend it.



My belief is that most of Jon's journey in Dance is about realizing that he cannot defend the Wall and hold true to the oaths in full. After reading the pink letter I think he believes that Stannis offers the only hope of defending the wall. Assuming R+L=J I think this is the context in which he may pursue the claim assuming he is told. He would ride south in order to ensure that the wall receives enough manpower and supplies to be defended.


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Stannis is concerned about the pending White Walker invasion, while the Boltons could care less. The best chance the Nights Watch have in defending the wall is for the Boltons to be quickly defeated and Stannis to unite all the northern families under him and inform them about the coming battle. So technically, although Jon is involving himself in matters of the realm, him doing so is contributing to the main goal of the Nights Watch.


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