The grand Faceless Men conspiracy theory

[Paxter]

[quote name='TheEvilKing' post='1685414' date='Feb 13 2009, 21.02']Hey Toemeister. How about this one?[/quote]

I love it EvilKing. And not only is it faceless, but it's a giant. And there is a certain stone giant standing just outside Braavos, where the Faceless Men hang out...

[oxmix]

Wow, that's a big TOE! Lots of interesting ideas to respond to there.

Here is a plot problem that I think is more GRRM's then Toe's. You don't need to get all the Others on the other side of the wall to kill everyone. You just need one. They multiply like a virus. Or like vampires. It seems stange to me that the Others, who are inteligent, have never gotten a single ice vampire around the Westeros version of the Marginot line.

Now, if I had dragons, and I wanted to kill everyone in Westeros, I suppose I could pick up a few ice vampires and fly them across. That seems simpler than attacking the Marginot line.

If I didn't have dragons, and I wanted to kill everyone in Westeros, I would chain up a few husky brutes where I knew the others would find them, wait for them to become dormant ice vampires, box them up, and drop them off south of the wall. That would be alot of trouble, but less trouble than any plan that starts off, "Setp 1: Get some dragons."

Of couse, killing everyone in Westeros would not be the same thing as killing everyone in the world. I can see why the Other's haven't been able to spread to other continents. And if you have draggons, and you wanted to wipe out humanity, why not just let the dragons be dragons?

[Artanaro]

I finally got around to reading your theory, Toe, but alas, it's little more than wishful fan fiction (and for the record, there's nothing wrong with that). There is just very little deductive reasoning in your theory, while almost every new assertion you make relies on inductive reasoning (which is rarely ever logical). It's akin to walking a road and using your imagination to figure out what place lies over each hill, rather than using your surroundings to deduce where you may be and where you are not. Sometimes people guess right, but people mostly guess wrong, when they do so blindly.

Interesting, nevertheless.

Artanaro

[Bury me a G]

Interesting read, but WHY?!?

Explain why and it would have more merit.

[The_BlauerDragon]

[quote name='Toe' post='1684247' date='Feb 12 2009, 08.39'][indent][i]"We bring the gift of death." [/i]
[i]The kindly man[/i][/indent]

This gives a new meaning to the phrase "All men must die".[/quote]

A very long, and very interesting theory... Do you suppose that the statement "All men must serve" was the original motto of Old Valyria? and "all men must die" was the Faceless Man's F-U response?

Also... All mention of (and information about) the 13th LC of the NW, The Night's King, was systematically erased... Do you think that could have been to prevent anyone from connecting the dots with any future FM attempts to infiltrate the NW?

[Chalky]

[quote name='Bury me a G' post='1686391' date='Feb 13 2009, 20.37']Interesting read, but WHY?!?

Explain why and it would have more merit.[/quote]
I concur. WHY?

[TheEvilKing]

I thought it was explained pretty clearly why. The Faceless Men are crazy religious terrorists who want everyone to die.

[Raff the Sweetling]

Isnt Varys with Tyrion on a ship in one of the preview chapters from ADWD? Wich pretty much would rule out him becoming Qyburn. Besides, every one knows Varys is a Squisher. :rolleyes:

[Toe]

[quote name='Paxter' post='1685409' date='Feb 13 2009, 06.55']Like Bronn, Qyburn rose quickly because of [i]opportunity[/i]. It's not that he didn't have the skills beforehand, just that he didn't have an opportunity to use them.

Also, the excommunication from the Citadel may have caused something of a lull in Qyburn's life. Maybe he didn't have the will to pursue his endeavours after being cast out by the Maesters, and so joined the Bloody Mummers instead. When he was once again given an opportunity in KL, maybe he recaptured his ambition.[/quote]

Most of Bronn's raise was luck. He happened to be in position where the Queen had to give him a very large bribe. Without this and with Tyrion gone he would be just be another unemployed hedge knight.

But I do agree as a general principle that opportunity is important even for those with skill. Your second point is also interesting. Maybe it could also be argued that in this sellsword company he would access to many corpses that he could treat as he wanted. Still, his raise after entering KL is simply meteoric. He is commoner of the most despicable kind who become a member of the small council in very short time!

[Toe]

[quote name='TheEvilKing' post='1685414' date='Feb 13 2009, 07.02']Hey Toemeister. How about this one?
"Over them both loomed a giant in armor made of stone, but when he opened his visor, there was nothing inside but darkness and thick black blood."

Totally faceless.[/quote]

[quote name='Paxter' post='1685439' date='Feb 13 2009, 08.39']I love it EvilKing. And not only is it faceless, but it's a giant. And there is a certain stone giant standing just outside Braavos, where the Faceless Men hang out...[/quote]

I love it also!

[Toe]

[quote name='TheEvilKing' post='1685421' date='Feb 13 2009, 08.10']What about the Ass'hai chick who lurks around Dany from time to time. FM ally or rival? I suspect the former. Ass'hai seems to be the opposing force of Faceless Men if we go by Melisandre, and the witch is trying to get Dany (and more importantly the dragons) to go East, away from Westeros.

Maybe the dragons going to Ass'hai would help awaken more dragons there or something. The opposing weapon against the FM's Others.

Mayhaps Euron will steal Drogon and burn down the Wall, then Dany/Tyrion will rock up with the dragon army and save Westeros.

How's that for some badass conspiracy theorisationment.[/quote]
I like it. The Others and the FM will most likely have some serious opposition. Ass'hai most likely a part of it. Maybe with a conspiracy of their own. But we have very little information about them so hard to speculate. Nothing like Arya's chapters in AFFC.

[Toe]

[quote name='oxmix' post='1686113' date='Feb 13 2009, 16.43']Here is a plot problem that I think is more GRRM's then Toe's. You don't need to get all the Others on the other side of the wall to kill everyone. You just need one. They multiply like a virus. Or like vampires. It seems stange to me that the Others, who are inteligent, have never gotten a single ice vampire around the Westeros version of the Marginot line.

Now, if I had dragons, and I wanted to kill everyone in Westeros, I suppose I could pick up a few ice vampires and fly them across. That seems simpler than attacking the Marginot line.

If I didn't have dragons, and I wanted to kill everyone in Westeros, I would chain up a few husky brutes where I knew the others would find them, wait for them to become dormant ice vampires, box them up, and drop them off south of the wall. That would be alot of trouble, but less trouble than any plan that starts off, "Setp 1: Get some dragons."

Of couse, killing everyone in Westeros would not be the same thing as killing everyone in the world. I can see why the Other's haven't been able to spread to other continents. And if you have draggons, and you wanted to wipe out humanity, why not just let the dragons be dragons?[/quote]
Or you could put the Others on ships and simply go around the wall. Or they could go under it since supposedly there are tunnels. But as you note this is not specifically a problem for my theory but for all claims that the Wall is important as a defense against the Others like the legends regarding its creation. The Wall is magical and seems to act as some sort of magical barrier since it seems to stop warg telepathy. I see the Wall more as a general magical prison for the Others than a simple wall which as you state would not be difficult to go around.

Regarding dragons they can probably cause many problems but they seem not to be interested in killing humanity in general. They have co-existed with humanity for at least the long period of the Valyrian empire. They are also rather unintelligent and not impossible to kill.

[Toe]

[quote name='Artanaro' post='1686145' date='Feb 13 2009, 17.03']I finally got around to reading your theory, Toe, but alas, it's little more than wishful fan fiction (and for the record, there's nothing wrong with that). There is just very little deductive reasoning in your theory, while almost every new assertion you make relies on inductive reasoning (which is rarely ever logical). It's akin to walking a road and using your imagination to figure out what place lies over each hill, rather than using your surroundings to deduce where you may be and where you are not. Sometimes people guess right, but people mostly guess wrong, when they do so blindly.

Interesting, nevertheless.

Artanaro[/quote]

Hm, I thinks my theory explains many mysteries as noted in the text. Also it provides a logically consistent explanation of, for example, all of Varys's and Jaqen H'ghar's actions. Unless you have a simpler theory that explains everything that my theory explains? Or can you point to any logical contradictions in the theory?

[Onion Knight]

[quote name='Raff the Sweetling' post='1686506' date='Feb 14 2009, 00.35']Isnt Varys with Tyrion on a ship in one of the preview chapters from ADWD? Wich pretty much would rule out him becoming Qyburn. Besides, every one knows Varys is a Squisher. :rolleyes:[/quote]
Can anyone approve that?

Great theory, BTW.

[Toe]

[quote name='Raff the Sweetling' post='1686506' date='Feb 14 2009, 00.35']Isnt Varys with Tyrion on a ship in one of the preview chapters from ADWD? Wich pretty much would rule out him becoming Qyburn.[/quote]

Since this would be a spoiler I will not reply to this here but those interested can read the summaries of the preview chapters in the A Dance with Dragons subforum.

[Artanaro]

[quote name='Toe' post='1686768' date='Feb 14 2009, 11.41']*snip* Or can you point to any logical contradictions in the theory?[/quote]
I can point to contradictions within the text, and why your use of inductive reasoning is usually not valid. Your post is too long for me to tear everything apart, but list one or two assertions you'd like my comments on, and I'd be happy to do it.

Artanaro

[Toe]

[quote name='the Blauer Dragon' post='1686423' date='Feb 13 2009, 20.33']A very long, and very interesting theory... Do you suppose that the statement "All men must serve" was the original motto of Old Valyria? and "all men must die" was the Faceless Man's F-U response?

Also... All mention of (and information about) the 13th LC of the NW, The Night's King, was systematically erased... Do you think that could have been to prevent anyone from connecting the dots with any future FM attempts to infiltrate the NW?[/quote]

Prince Oberyn stated that "Valar morghulis was how they said it in Valyria of old. All men must die. And the Doom came and proved it true." The kindly men said "All men must serve beneath this roof. Valar dohaeris is how we say it here."

"All men must die" is said by several people like Oberyn. Valar dohaeris seems to be associated with the FM. Both Brusco (the fisherman who provides fish to Arya) and the sea captain taking her to Braavos use this phrase in connection with the FM. So if anything "all men must serve" seems to be the FM response.

I do think all really important information regarding how to stop and fight the Others and their plans have been destroyed. I missed that regarding the Night's King, interesting. "all records of Night's King had been destroyed, his very name forbidden." Why all records?

[Toe]

[quote name='Artanaro' post='1686783' date='Feb 14 2009, 13.16']I can point to contradictions within the text, and why your use of inductive reasoning is usually not valid. Your post is too long for me to tear everything apart, but list one or two assertions you'd like my comments on, and I'd be happy to do it.

Artanaro[/quote]

Pick any one or two you like. Discussion is fun!

[Winter Crow]

Totally awesome!
I've read my fair share of theories through my short life, but this one takes the first prize! Masterfully crafted, and it actually makes sense!
Great work Toe, although it's a bit long ;).
Even R+L=J didn't leave as big an impression on me as this one. Once again, nice! :thumbsup:

And Chalky and Bury me G, it's stated pretty clearly in the beginning. The FM wants to wipe out all life, because, well, Valar Morghulis (All men Must Die). Pretty simple actually.

[Artanaro]

Varys is one of my favorite characters so let me use several of his assertions.

[quote name='Toe' post='1684247' date='Feb 12 2009, 09.39'][b]Varys[/b]
Varys's quarters and lifestyle seem to be extremely ascetic with only water in his flagon and a stone bed. [b][1]Does not fit with a perfumed fat eunuch[/b], as Tyrion notes, but fits well with a [b][2]member of a death cult who finds little pleasure in this world. Arya also has a stone bed in Braavos. [/b][/quote]
Here is an interesting one I like. The coincidence how Arya has a stone bed in Braavos and Varys does to, is definitely worth noting. The problem lies in your conclusions and how you draw support from the text. This assertion requires two parts, which I labeled in your quote.

[1] A perfumed fat eunuch should not have an empty room without comforts.
The conclusion you draw is that a) Varys finds little pleasure in the world and b) this represents an identical situation with the faceless men. But we do know Vary is fat, and does use perfume. So where is his perfume? Where are the documents he drew upon in Tyrion's trial. How does he get fat, if he has no food around? Since his room is quite bare, when it is known Varys must have extensive resources, the following can be drawn from the circumstances.

1. Varys stores items, such as perfumes, security documents, etc in another place besides his room.
2. Varys eat somewhere or obtains foods someplace besides his room.

The second conclusion isn't anything ground breaking, but the first is interesting. Assuming there is a connection between Varys and the Faceless Men, the connection may only be that Faceless Men don't put faith in their living quarters, and keep every of value, either for professional or personal use, in a safe haven. The conclusion that since he has nothing in his room, he does not have those items anywhere, is wrong. It is possible, just as anything is possible, but since we do know he has perfume, there is no giant leap that he could have other luxuries as well, especially since the place where he stores his perfume and documents is unaccounted for.

[2] A stone bed represents no desire for personal pleasure, and since Arya has a stone bed, there must be a connection to the Faceless Men.

There are many problems with this logic. First, Arya is not a Faceless Man. She is a pupil, who may become one. Perhaps luxury is reserved for the higher ranks or after someone has earned their stripes. I won't get into your assertion that Faceless Men find little pleasure in the world (though, the Kindly Man seemed happy to me, especially after Arya tried to eat the worm), but there is a problem here. We don't even know if Varys actually sleeps in his quarters. If someone is fearful of betrayal, it would make sense to never sleep in your own bed. The movie, Munich, has an interesting anecdote. One of the agents mentions how they knew someone who slept for years on the floor of their closet, paranoid of someone rigging explosives or traps with their bed. The same logic may apply, but I wouldn't use the stone bed as supporting the believe that Faceless Men don't find pleasure in the world.

I did find your post interesting, but the main difference between inductive and deductive reasoning is this. Inductive says "this could mean this", while deductive says "this can't mean that." Deductive reasoning involves winnowing down the possibilities through related facts and circumstances until you are left with the most probable outcome or explanation. Since anything is possible, inductive reasoning can provide any conclusion the user wants.

Artanaro