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About Paxter

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    Cricket Tragic
  • Birthday 12/30/1987

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  1. I agree that this policy differentiation ended up being a problem for the ALP (which is kind of a shame from a wonkish perspective). But I still go back to the fact that it was a poor leadership match-up for Labor, as so much of Shorten's previous success was due to Turnbull's inability to unite the Coalition's base behind him. We saw that most obviously in the double dissolution election, when Turnbull bled 14 seats to Labor and Xenophon. And again in the citizenship by-elections. Next time around, the ALP need a simpler policy message and a leader who can get Qld and NSW marginals on board (hint: not Albo).
  2. Ding! Come on TWS, surely you know me better than to be optimistic about cricket administrators. A real purist would let test cricket end over their dead body.
  3. Totally agree. At the moment they are caught in no-mans land. But I honestly don't know what they can do...if they run progressive they are never going to win those marginals in QLD. If they run too central than they might not have any product differentiation to the Liberals, as well as risk losing seats to the Greens. Meanwhile the Coalition is considerably less toxic without Turnbull/Abbott/Joyce.
  4. I'm not sure I agree with it...but the thought of any politician being less charismatic than Shorten made me laugh. And I'm happy to read that not everyone thinks of ScoMo as our rusted on PM. But I fear the worst.
  5. From the incoming ICC Chairman: Well, that sounds promising.
  6. That doesn't really jive with my own life experiences but I don't have any data to back that up. I'm a millennial myself and most of my male friends of the same age are highly supportive or at least generally supportive of LGBT rights. That applies to guys I consider "bros" as well as religious individuals. But self-selection is a problem here. By contrast most of the male boomers in my life are neutral at best on LGBT matters (including my dad, for example).
  7. I'm yet to be convinced (sadly) that the environment is a big enough issue in marginal electorates to bring down the Libs, regardless of what Biden and Xi commit to. Politics is all about seizing the right moment in the cycle to make a big move. I can't help but look back on the Turnbull spill as the major turning point of the last few years. Shorten v Turnbull was a good match-up for Labor (esp in QLD and TAS) and the ALP had every chance of winning last year. Now with COVID, a limp economy and a limper ALP leader, everything is tailor made for the Libs to be in power for a while longer. But, hey, never say never. At the start of the year I was certain that Trump would win re-election (strong economy; he delivered on promises to his base etc). So yeah.
  8. Yeah I don’t think the two major parties have enough policy differentiation on China for it to matter. Australia is just stuck in a non-partisan mess on that front. In any case China hasn’t really hit us where it hurts - it’s more of a dance than a shootout. No tariffs on the grey stuff they dig out of Karara. But the Afghan child picture will keep the dancers spinning.
  9. I always found Albo to be pretty charismatic (far more so than recent Labor leaders like Gillard or Shorten). As for his policy positions, he's tacked to the centre after Bill's failed (but valiant!) attempts to tackle issues related to inequality and the environment. But I think many key electorates (I'm looking at you Queensland) will still find him too left-leaning for their tastes. I think Labor has been very tactical in not attacking the PM too much this far out from the election. ScoMo's approval rating is at about 2/3 thanks to the pandemic, so you are really fighting a losing battle at this stage. Rewind to last year's bushfires and his approval rating was well under half.
  10. Forgot to mention - it was actually a pretty bad IPL for the majority of the Aussie players. Warner made 500+ runs but even he wasn't always on song. Cummins was brilliant. Stoinis was good. And the rest were all ordinary or poor (especially Maxwell with the bat).
  11. Looks like England will chase this down. That Hendricks over went horribly wrong!
  12. Haha. I think you know what I think about these previous caseload "highs" by now. If we are ever going to talk about "highs" in a sense relative to the rest of 2020, we need to be using hospitalization or death data. For now, I will maintain my position that Phase 2 is around 1/3 (and no more than half) as severe as Phase 1 for Quebec and Ontario! ETA: That is good news on testing. But really it needs to be six figures and beyond to be catching more asymptomatic cases. I'll give the case of Australia (always a convenient example I'll admit!) which has tested about 31% more people per capita than Canada. And a lot of those extra tests are of asymptomatic people.
  13. Yeah I think the above is valid and represents the thoughts of a huge swathe of fans. Buuuuuut I would still argue that the main problem is TROS, which really is a steaming pile. TFA and TLJ are not great movies and so different that they are hard to discuss together, but I find them more watchable than the prequels other than maybe Sith.
  14. India were fairly easily out-played in that one. Australia built a strong base and batted them out of the game.
  15. And of course McGowan is going to win in WA by an absolute landslide in March. The Liberals are going to be taking a very long break from government in my homeland. Around 18 months from a Federal election...that is not looking promising for Labor. They probably need to dump Albanese for someone more conservative (and from Queensland) to have any sort of chance in 2022.
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