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Paxter

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About Paxter

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    Cricket Tragic
  • Birthday 12/30/1987

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    Sydney, Australia

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  1. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Couldn’t agree more! The “end of polling” lines being spun ATM are really quite hilarious. People who predicted a Labor landslide are just looking for something to blame. @karaddin: I’m not a fan of that aspect of Morrison either. But I still think he’s way better than Tony and that he will largely govern from the centre.
  2. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Labor are in a quandary with the leadership contest: Albo and Plibs are decent retail politicians and are certainly a lot less robotic than Shorten. But they are in the left faction, which is not going to help things along in Qld.
  3. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    I don’t necessarily agree with the above. It’s true that the Senate rarely votes down legislation, but that’s because the Government won’t put things to a vote without advance crossbench support. Take Turnbull’s recent corporates tax cuts - the failure to get One Nation and Centre Alliance Senators across the line was a very big deal and basically killed off the centrepiece of the Federal Budget. But the Senate never voted on the proposed reforms. The Medivac Bill is an even more recent example of both the House and the Senate passing a sensitive piece of legislation without Government support. On that occasion there was of course a formal vote. ETA: I guess my overall point is that without a majority in the Senate, the likelihood of obtaining advance crossbench support is a major factor for the Government and its advisors for every piece of leg. The Government’s increased Senators from 31 to 34 won’t change that too much in an 76-seat Senate, though I’m sure they’ll take the increased representation!
  4. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    I guess I just don’t buy this “the pollsters are so wrong!” hysteria. The Coalition is going to have a majority by, at most, two seats. That’s not highly inconsistent with even money polling on a two party basis, plus a clear preference for Morrison as PM, as well as the late movement factor. A similar thing happened in the 2016 US election - most models I saw gave Trump a decent shot, but people were assuming the polls were grossly wrong just because they have Hillary the edge. ETA: I feel a bit sorry for Phelps. Gave it a red hot go in Wentworth but no cigar this time. Sharma seems like he would be a good MP anyway, but will be less influential than Phelps would have been as a key cross-bencher.
  5. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Did the pollsters get it so wrong? The Coalition will either be in minority or a slim majority - that’s not completely incongruent with the polls showing 50-50 or 49-51, as they have in recent weeks. Plus the poll showing Morrison as preferred PM was very, very accurate! Perhaps that poll result needs to be factored in to the general two-party preferred...
  6. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Yeah that’s interesting. It would suggest that Labor would have been better off not providing so much detail and costings around its economic agenda. Should’ve just run on a basic economic platform of “slightly less tax cuts at the top end/corporates; bigger spend on health and education”.
  7. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    I think @Free Northman Reborn probably sums things up for a lot of voters. And I acknowledge that climate policy was a key battle line won by the Coalition (except in seats like Abbott’s). I’m just a little surprised that the broader Labor economic agenda (putting climate aside) proved to be such anathema.
  8. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Yeah that makes sense. Is one of the lessons here to not run positive campaigns? “Mediscare” worked well for Labor in 2016, “the Bill you can’t afford” won the day three years later.
  9. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    I think the former can be explained by the ascendency of climate politics in those seats. But I don’t really get the latter! I can only assume that Shorten and his progressive economic agenda was the problem.
  10. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Yeah fair enough. I guess I’m wondering more at the possible narratives there and why Shorten’s progressive platform fell so flat. And the same question re: Victoria. ETA: On the question about external influences on this election - look closer to home than Russia or China. The Murdoch press was a major factor. I don’t necessarily “blame” the media for this result though - this is on Australians who gobble that stuff up like no tomorrow. And another stray observation: in a weird way this was a great night for Tony Abbott. He lost his seat, but he showed that a Liberal party cast more in his image than Turnbull’s would have electoral success.
  11. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Just a few stray observations: - Labor has won majority government at just a single federal election since 1993. That’s one victory in 26 years. - Palmer didn’t win a single seat, but he surely had a major impact on the result with his voters directing preferences to the LNP. One Nation also got a big primary vote in Queensland. - The decision to turf Turnbull paid a massive dividend in Queensland. The Longman by-election win actually hurt Labor in the long term because it showed that MT couldn’t hold on to marginal Qld seats. - Labor’s “united team” made no difference. And that same unity will actually be a problem if/when Labor try to tilt rightwards in the next three years. How can the new leader be credible when they stood behind Shorten’s progressivism? - The Senate could be very tricky for Morrison, with the Greens picking up seats in most states. A lot depends on how these last few seats in doubt fall. - And we always knew this but: “it’s the economy, stupid”. Labor can’t hope to win government unless and until they get the electorate to trust them on the economy. One thing I can’t quite work out: what on earth happened in Tas and Vic? I can understand Qld but I’m surprised at seats actually flipping to the Libs in Tas.
  12. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Losing Shorten is a massive plus. Also looks like Lambie might be back! Entertainment +++
  13. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Haha. Did I mention I’m moving to Canada in two weeks?
  14. Paxter

    Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

    Terrible policy on the run from the Coalition re: first home buyers. Not only is it mainly great news for current owners/sellers, it’s also imprudent to encourage lower-income earners to enter a still-inflated market with small savings. And equally poor stuff from Labor to match it without thinking.
  15. Paxter

    Cricket 34: Bring Your Own Sandpaper

    Yeah and the calls for Archer to play in the Ashes are increasing. As if England needs another all-rounder...
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