Paxter

Who's watching the watchmen? The ACT Integrity Commission, apparently.

An amazing career comes to an end. Jimmy will finish up with up with a staggering number of test appearances (188) and the highest test wicket tally of any fast bowler in history. Only Sachin played more tests. Quite something.

You're not wrong - it's a complicated effect. Savers (notably, baby boomers) are doing really well right now. My parents have most of their life savings in term deposits that are paying very handsomely compared to a few years ago. This supports consumption and is a reason services-related inflation is running hot in Australia. The effect on banks is a little more nuanced. Yes, they are earning more on interest-bearing assets (like the reserves that have at the RBA), as well as their mortgage book, which is largely variable rate debt. But they are also paying more in terms of funding costs - particularly on wholesale funding, on which Australian banks are very reliant. This is hampering their ability to extend credit to borrowers that are already stretched and don’t want to pay high interest on things like auto loans. So I don't think that aspect of high interest rates is particularly inflationary. The big problem I see for the RBA (and the reason I see them holding or raising interest rates further) is that lower interest rates is going to put more money in the pockets of many consumers and businesses with floating-rate debt that they will probably spend immediately. That is going to juice domestic inflation even more. And, of course, there is the small matter of the $AUD, which could collapse further if the RBA cuts, making everything we import even more expensive. My overall position remains as it has been all year - doubting that the Reserve got this right and expecting inflation to be sticky.

Predictable tumbleweed at this time of year. IPL fans we are not. I did have to chuckle at the record number of draws to start the County season...that Kookaburra ball trial was a massive flop. Bad year for the diddly-dobblers that usually make hay in April!

Another pretty hot CPI print for Australia (3.6% headline annual number, 4% when stripping out the volatile items), solidifying our position as one of a number of economies that are struggling to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. By comparison, the Bank of Canada, with a higher nominal rate, has managed to get the headline number under 3%. Chances of an RBA cut in 2024 are now pretty low. It also puts Chalmers in a not-fun position for the upcoming budget. Any stimulus could push the prospect of rate cuts even further into the future.

Absolutely. Yes, it wasn't to the criminal standard of proof but the defamation case showed that Higgins had a case that police and prosecutors were justified in pursuing. Unfortunately, a mistrial was always a likely outcome due to the media circus around this case, but that is hardly the fault of the victim. Let's see what happens in the Toowoomba case now, in which Lehrmann is accused of raping a woman twice in 2021.

Absolutely love Fevre Dream. Highly underrated.

Well, Lehrmann’s defamation case backfired. The judge has concluded that, on the balance of probabilities, he raped Higgins. A fair amount of Lehrmann’s evidence was not believed by the judge and was derided. This means that Ten and co have a defence to defamation. Costs order will be interesting (deferred for now). Wilkinson and 10 will be out of pocket but not as much as Lehrmann.

Stabbings not overly surprising in a country with very limited access to firearms. But very, very sad for the innocent lives lost.

Another pretty hot inflation print for the US. Somewhat deceptive as the main driver was shelter - other areas are still looking promising for the soft landing believers. But the double-edged sword of a continued strong economy is that inflation is likely to persist for a while yet. We have seen a pretty sharp turnaround in commodity prices in Q1, which is going to feed through the supply chain in the next few months and probably see more sustained price rises. The headline CPI number is going to be a headache. That likely means "higher for longer" and greater chances that we eventually see falling economic growth and/or a financial event (e.g., commercial real estate, more regional banks falling).

I'm a fan of ETFs for long-term investment. Gives you the diversification benefits at low cost. The thematic ones are silly though. Just buy the market. On the rally - yup, we are about to find out how much it was based on pending rate cuts. The oil price has jumped quite a bit since the start of this year, which doesn't make it easy for central banks to cut rates. In theory, they shouldn't be too worried about highly volatile energy costs (partially driven by OPEC production cuts). But in practice the optics of being the Fed Chair to cut rates just when headline inflation was poised to jump higher are not good.

Drive-by on the Sam Kerr thing. I think it’s pathetic. What a waste of police, prosecutorial, and court resources.

Frustrating loss for NZ but an undeniably exciting match.

Feel sorry for Jonny as he was in such amazing form before that injury. The tour is definitely ending in a whimper for England. I think they played better than 4-1.

From a G&M article: And I have to say, it feels like it. Canada's economy (and fairly large financial services industry) was a big draw for me when I moved here in 2019. It's not really a positive anymore.