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About Paxter

  • Birthday 12/30/1987

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  • Cricket Tragic
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    Toronto, Canada

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  1. He did get a pretty good run in the IPL, leading the now-defunct Deccan to their only IPL win. But yes, he would have been even more sought-after in the IPL-dominant era we now live in. One of the good things about fewer T20s in the 2000s was that we were able to see Symonds have a good run in the test team, which saw him average a very creditable 40 and pass fifty 12 times in 41 digs. I doubt that would have happened nowadays, as guys like Maxwell barely get a shot at test level, in part due to the primacy of limited overs cricket. It is sad that we have lost some amazing former players this year. Another fallen star recently is Michael Slater, who went off the rails after the disastrous 2021 IPL and criticizing the Aussie PM via Twitter. He recently had charges of domestic violence dismissed on mental health grounds in court. I am pretty dismayed by these developments as Slater really seemed to have pulled things together after the ignominious end to his test career.
  2. Yes, definitely a moment of political schadenfreude, though inflation targeting is clearly the realm of the central bank, which as I mentioned months ago has been asleep at the wheel. And even from that point of view, you could argue that the Reserve has performed better than its peers, many of which are seeing even higher rates of inflation despite being oil exporters (e.g. Canada).
  3. Can’t disagree with the ad though. I’m a fairly close political watcher, but it’s hard to really separate the two major parties on the policy domains I care about. Things were very different under Shorten’s leadership- he created some very clear policy differentiation (which unfortunately nobody liked). Albo is going for the “anyone but Coalition” approach.
  4. Feels like the parties themselves then are pressing pause on democracy. Get on with it! ETA: We have ludicrously short election cycles back home (three years), so I’m accustomed to more breakneck pace.
  5. Very sad story. Unrelated, I am still confused by how long it takes the major parties here to agree on a leader. Don’t get me wrong, I’m in no hurry to see that crazy guy get the Cons leadership, but I do think the Westminster system requires a strong Opposition and it just feels like Federal politics is dormant right now.
  6. Whoops we were at cross purposes. I was thinking broader economy; you housing prices. Agree with the above.
  7. A ton of people are on fixed rate mortgages now. The big banks moved away from variables as they were all competing over market share. So the hike may take longer to be effective than it normally would (as the fixed mortgages eventually reprice). Most people on variables have also been overpaying their mortgage for years, so are in a strong position. And while debt may be high, Australia is more awash with cash than ever.
  8. Yeah no surprises in the end. I think it can work if he takes a break from a lot (if not all) of the limited overs stuff. I certainly wouldn’t bother with him in T20Is as England already have a lot of big hitters. If he tries to be an all-format player, I think the pressure of the job could become a factor.
  9. Oh I forget that people own homes. Not a concept I’m familiar with!
  10. The potential issue with the above is the phenomenon of inflationary expectations. If you wait too long to raise rates to above a neutral level, economic actors start to expect higher inflation. This can lead (amongst other things) to workers demanding higher wages, which in turn drives even higher prices (the so-called "wage-price spiral"). Once inflationary expectations have been altered in this way, you basically have to emulate Paul Volcker and send the economy into recession (he did this by raising the interest rate to around 20%). What the Fed and others are trying to do now is promise to hike rates fast enough and by a large enough amount to avoid the above change in inflationary expectations. But they want to try to thread the needle and do this in a way that avoids massive demand destruction leading to a recession or a financial crisis (the latter should be less likely in a post-2008 world but it's of course still possible).
  11. The problem is we don't know if moving to a neutral rate (i.e. a rate that is neither tight nor loose policy) will be enough. It may be that the Reserve (and the Fed and co) will need to move above neutral to get the desired cool-down - noting that some of these supply chain snarls do not seem to be going away, and may worsen in the near-term as China's lockdown gains pace. And demand is strong with both households and corporates sitting on record piles of post-COVID cash and very few health restrictions now in place (the "great reopening"). Australia may also experience some imported inflation if the USD and other tightening economies experience currency appreciations. ETA: Bit nerdy on central banking globally - but it is interesting in the inflation-targeting era that central banks continue with a backward looking approach. In the 2000s central banks were too loose because they were repairing markets after the tech bubble, in the 2010s central banks were too tight because they didn't want to encourage more financial speculation and were obsessed with austerity. Now in the 2020s we have gone back to overly loose as central banks are trying to dig economies out of COVID (even economies like Aus that did not experience large recessions and have record low unemployment rates!) The above is not how central banking is supposed to work...
  12. Yes, unfortunately they have found themselves listening to the Fed too much. The Bank of England and RBNZ were smarter. Anyway a couple of months shouldn’t matter too much (monetary policy is a blunt tool that operates with a lag), but they need to raise to around 2% in short order and probably higher after that.
  13. Forecasters were tipping 4.6% for headline inflation, with the core figure set to come in above the target range. And instead we got a sizeable headline beat at over 5.1% and a trimmed mean of 3.7%. Time for the Reserve to take a hike, (regardless of the election).
  14. I still think smarter diplomacy and aid in the Pacific could have at least forestalled this development if not avoided it entirely. ScoMo’s whole “Pacific family” approach is incredibly paternalistic and we haven’t helped ourselves by being poor supporters of global climate policy (a big policy issue across the Pacific).
  15. There is always significant undercounting, but the official death counts still provide directional information on the state of the pandemic. And this is a pandemic low on that front. Let’s hope it continues to fall.
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