Maybe R+L=J is not true?

[Stark Outlook]

Jon has to be Rhaegar's child. Ned being as honorable as he is, would have at least told Cat, Lyanna's secret. Because either way he's breaking a promise. I'm sure he would rather tell Lyanna's secret then be seen as un-faithful. And at the same time save Jon some of Cat's ridicule. Other wise next time I watch Ned's head get lopped off I'll laugh because he's just "that" stupid.

i dont think so because if he told her than there was a chance others would find out and jon would have been in more danger keeping him seen as a bastard kept him protected from robert or any who would want to end the targ line the honourable thing was to make ppl think he was unfaithful rather than expose the secret and break a promise to his sister.

[ledlevee]

The biggest question is, if R+L=J is not true, what was Lyanna's promise? Why was it so important that Ned lived by it so many years later, and it haunted him in his dreams?

Until another good answer to these questions is presented, R+L=J is by far the best way to tie all of this together. It also explains the events at the Tower of Joy. It explains why Lyanna was dying there when Ned arrived. It also explains many of the prophecies throughout the books, as well as the title of the series. It explains too much to be ignored. If we take the supporting evidence on one side and the question marks on the other side and compare the two, R+L=J comes out very favorably. It's not perfect, but it's close. And I believe the only reason there are holes right now is that GRRM hasn't had a chance to fill those holes yet, but I think he will in the next two books.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Another possibility is Bran could hear Ned praying about it in front of a weirwood. I think that may be more likely, since Rhaegar and Lyanna were probably married at or near the Tower of Joy, where there are no weirwoods I know of.

In ADWD there is mention of some weirwoods still remaining in the south, hidden in caves so it is still totally possible. That said we have no idea where Lyanna was when she was taken so she could have still been north of the neck which would increase the weirwood supply considerably. Additionally if Rickard was involved as some have supposed in other threads (and I like the idea of a well laid plan being FUBARed by Brandon not having all the info), its possible it was formally done in the north.

ETA: Confused the grandfather for the grandson...my bad its been fixed. :)

[Swordsaint]

i dont think so because if he told her than there was a chance others would find out and jon would have been in more danger keeping him seen as a bastard kept him protected from robert or any who would want to end the targ line the honourable thing was to make ppl think he was unfaithful rather than expose the secret and break a promise to his sister.

Why, who is Cat going to tell? You're not taking into account that for Ned to tell Cat would mean Jon's isn't a Targ according to the OP's post. Unless you think Cat would run off and tell and some surviving member of the old King's Guard. Which I don't think would accomplish anything seeing as non of them are great houses.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Why, who is Cat going to tell? And if she was forced to tell for whatever reason there would be a war either way.

It would put her in danger to know because she might be forced to tell, and it would automatically involve her in treason against the king. Making her complicit in treason would be an enormous dishonor to Catelyn. It is clear that even 15 or so years later Robert still wants to kill every Targ he sees, he never would have forgiven Ned for protecting Rhaegar's bastard that Robert would believe (regardless of what the actual truth is) was conceived in rape. If it was ever found out and it was also found out that Catelyn knew, it would be very easy for Robert to dispossess House Stark of everything. If it is found out and it turns out that the only one who knew was Ned, it might save the family the crown's extended wrath and preserve the house in spite of Ned's treason.

Addtionally there is the maxim that the best way to keep a secret is to make sure as few people know it as possible. It was not necessary for Cat to know the secret and selling the secret would depend in part on Cat in particular believing and acting as if Jon was a bastard of Ned. On top of which there is no way Ned could know that he could trust Cat when he first got back to Winterfell, and by the time he did know he could trust her, they'd been living the lie for years, any sudden change on her part could have drawn attention. It was safer for everyone if Cat didn't know.

[Swordsaint]

It would put her in danger to know because she might be forced to tell, and it would automatically involve her in treason against the king. Making her complicit in treason would be an enormous dishonor to Catelyn. It is clear that even 15 or so years later Robert still wants to kill every Targ he sees, he never would have forgiven Ned for protecting Rhaegar's bastard that Robert would believe (regardless of what the actual truth is) was conceived in rape. If it was ever found out and it was also found out that Catelyn knew, it would be very easy for Robert to dispossess House Stark of everything. If it is found out and it turns out that the only one who knew was Ned, it might save the family the crown's extended wrath and preserve the house in spite of Ned's treason.

Addtionally there is the maxim that the best way to keep a secret is to make sure as few people know it as possible. It was not necessary for Cat to know the secret and selling the secret would dependin in part on Cat in particular believing and acting as if Jon was a bastard of Ned. On top of which there is no way Ned could know that he could trust Cat when he first got back to Winterfell, and by the time he did know he could trust her, they'd been living the lie for years, any sudden change on her part could have drawn attention. It was safer for everyone if Cat didn't know.

You guys are not reading the OP's post and my reply to him apparently. FOR NED TO TELL CAT, WOULD MEAN THAT JON IS NOT A TARG. According to the OP's post. In effect making Jon some old King's Guard bastard. Possibly Dayne's, Hightower's etc. None of their survivors would be a threat to the Kingdom or the Starks.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

In ADWD there is mention of some weirwoods still remaining in the south, hidden in caves so it is still totally possible. That said we have no idea where Lyanna was when she was taken so she could have still been north of the neck which would increase the weirwood supply considerably. Additionally if Rickon was involved as some have supposed in other threads (and I like the idea of a well laid plan being FUBARed by Brandon not having all the info), its possible it was formally done in the north.

I always envisioned them being married on the Isle of Faces...just a thought.

Also, I think you meant Rickard, not Rickon. ;)

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

You guys are not reading the OP's post and my reply to him apparently. FOR NED TO TELL CAT, WOULD MEAN THAT JON IS NOT A TARG. According to the OP's post. In effect making Jon some old King's Guard bastard. Possibly Dayne's, Hightower's etc. None of their survivors would be a threat to the Kingdom or the Starks.

You see Ned not telling Cat as evidence for R+L=J. Correct?

[Swordsaint]

You see Ned not telling Cat as evidence for R+L=J. Correct?

Yes, Ned would not have kept that secret from her unless Jon could have been a huge threat to both the Stark's, and the Kingdom.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

Yes, Ned would not have kept that secret from her unless Jon could have been a huge threat to both the Stark's, and the Kingdom.

:agree: I thought this is where you were going, but I wasn't sure, so I didn't say anything.

[Sasha Steelsong]

You guys are not reading the OP's post and my reply to him apparently. FOR NED TO TELL CAT, WOULD MEAN THAT JON IS NOT A TARG. According to the OP's post. In effect making Jon some old King's Guard bastard. Possibly Dayne's, Hightower's etc. None of their survivors would be a threat to the Kingdom or the Starks.

Admittingly just jumped in...so yes got turned around on that if what you're saying is that Ned's silence to Cat supports R+L=J since revealing his identity would be a threat.

I always envisioned them being married on the Isle of Faces...just a thought.

Also, I think you meant Rickard, not Rickon. ;)

That's also a possibility (and would tie in nicely with the harranhall tournement story). And yes I did. Fixed it thanks for catching.

[House Martell]

You guys are not reading the OP's post and my reply to him apparently. FOR NED TO TELL CAT, WOULD MEAN THAT JON IS NOT A TARG. According to the OP's post. In effect making Jon some old King's Guard bastard. Possibly Dayne's, Hightower's etc. None of their survivors would be a threat to the Kingdom or the Starks.

I do think Lyanna is Jon's mother, as to why she made Ned "promise" her something, I don't know. I think the "promise" involved raising Jon as his own, because that's what Ned did, but beyond that I'm not certain.

I do want to know why if the KG solemn vow was to protect the king in the tower, why go out in the open and face a numerical disadvantage when they could have hold up in the tower and used it's natural defenses? If their goal was to at some point leave the ToJ with the king that wasn't a very good strategy.

[Maxpey]

I do think Lyanna is Jon's mother, as to why she made Ned "promise" her something, I don't know. I think the "promise" involved raising Jon as his own, because that's what Ned did, but beyond that I'm not certain.

I do want to know why if the KG solemn vow was to protect the king in the tower, why go out in the open and face a numerical disadvantage when they could have hold up in the tower and used it's natural defenses? If their goal was to at some point leave the ToJ with the king that wasn't a very good strategy.

Another poster suggested that it was essentially "Suicide by Northmen." In other words, they knew they would not be able to prevail and wanted to die a good death.

But you raise an interesting point. If the KG goal was to protect the heir at all costs, meeting their numerically superior foes in open ground where they would lose any advantage the TOJ offered them was foolish. It would have been like Leonidas and his 300 Spartans meeting the Persians in an open field instead of the narrow pass at Thermopylae

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

I do think Lyanna is Jon's mother, as to why she made Ned "promise" her something, I don't know. I think the "promise" involved raising Jon as his own, because that's what Ned did, but beyond that I'm not certain.

I do want to know why if the KG solemn vow was to protect the king in the tower, why go out in the open and face a numerical disadvantage when they could have hold up in the tower and used it's natural defenses? If their goal was to at some point leave the ToJ with the king that wasn't a very good strategy.

Another poster suggested that it was essentially "Suicide by Northmen." In other words, they knew they would not be able to prevail and wanted to die a good death.

But you raise an interesting point. If the KG goal was to protect the heir at all costs, meeting their numerically superior foes in open ground where they would lose any advantage the TOJ offered them was foolish. It would have been like Leonidas and his 300 Spartans meeting the Persians in an open field instead of the narrow pass at Thermopylae

I believe they did not have a choice.

The Targaryens were finished, and there was no way for them to hold the ToJ for an extended period of time, defeat was inevitable. If they had held up in the tower Ned would have called in reinforcements, and simply starved them out. Attempting to fight their way through was the only option, if they refused to bend the knee and turn over Lyanna and Jon.

[Swordsaint]

I believe they did not have a choice.

The Targaryens were finished, and there was no way for them to hold the ToJ for an extended period of time, defeat was inevitable. If they had held up in the tower Ned would have called in reinforcements, and simply starved them out. Attempting to fight their way through was the only option, if they refused to bend the knee and turn over Lyanna and Jon.

This ^ and I think they also under estimated Stark and his men. Great knights have routinely killed more then two men at once. The three of them together probably thought they would have a chance against 15, never mind seven.

[Ygrain]

I do want to know why if the KG solemn vow was to protect the king in the tower, why go out in the open and face a numerical disadvantage when they could have hold up in the tower and used it's natural defenses? If their goal was to at some point leave the ToJ with the king that wasn't a very good strategy.

On the other hand, what would have happened if the magnificent 7 arrived and found out that the tower is locked and there is no way to get in unless they send for reinforcements? Now, if they sent for reinforcements, then th KG would definitely stand no chance. Whereas, if they manage to engage all the Northmen, there is still a chance they might win and gain enough time to move Jon, without anyone else knowing of his existence.

[Maxpey]

I believe they did not have a choice.

The Targaryens were finished, and there was no way for them to hold the ToJ for an extended period of time, defeat was inevitable. If they had held up in the tower Ned would have called in reinforcements, and simply starved them out. Attempting to fight their way through was the only option, if they refused to bend the knee and turn over Lyanna and Jon.

I think you are correct that the KG realized that their position was untenable.

But again, from a purely tactical standpoint having all 3 KG waiting for the numerically superior enemy out in the open was the worst decision they could have made if they were trying to keep Jon alive for as longs as possible

Probably the best way to handle it would have been to have one KG occupy a different level in the TJ. This way, Ned's numerical superiority would have been neutralized. If Ned and the others didn't attempt to storm the TJ, then I could see the KG having no other choice but to attack first.

It appears that the KG knew that they would not be able to protect Jon from his alleged "enemies" but their honor would not let them leave him to that fate. As such, what better way to die then standing together one final time while fulfilling their vows to protect the King at all costs? IMO, this is the most reasonable explanation why the KG would have committed such a tactical error.

[ledlevee]

Let's remember the Kingsguard almost won. I think they actually thought they could easily beat the 7 northmen. Apparently, it was some trick or lucky strike from Howland Reed that saved Ned's butt. So it's not out of the question that the three kingsguard just got cocky and arrogant. From the things they say in Ned's dream, it definitely seems like the three of them have pretty high opinions of themselves.

[nQthing]

Perhaps howland reed fought to protect lyannas child, but when it was only dayne and Ned he decided to help ned

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

I think you are correct that the KG realized that their position was untenable.

But again, from a purely tactical standpoint having all 3 KG waiting for the numerically superior enemy out in the open was the worst decision they could have made if they were trying to keep Jon alive for as longs as possible

Probably the best way to handle it would have been to have one KG occupy a different level in the TJ. This way, Ned's numerical superiority would have been neutralized. If Ned and the others didn't attempt to storm the TJ, then I could see the KG having no other choice but to attack first.

It appears that the KG knew that they would not be able to protect Jon from his alleged "enemies" but their honor would not let them leave him to that fate. As such, what better way to die then standing together one final time while fulfilling their vows to protect the King at all costs? IMO, this is the most reasonable explanation why the KG would have committed such a tactical error.

You could be correct, but I feel the Kingsguard felt they could win the fight.