Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[sumant30]

Cunning? I think it was a stupid move, Roose single- handedly turned the entire North against him. Any idiot can put two and two together and figure out why the Boltons are unmolested from the RW. If anything Roose is Cautious. He has a idiot and very hated son, and he's stuck inside a very hostile environment with people who would love to slit his throat. Once word spreads that "Arya" is gone all hell will break loose. I expect Roose being the cautious man that he is to fall back to his home base and hole up there. There is just too many great factors against him.

1.Arya is gone

2.His lords hate him and will rebel once they find out Arya is gone

3.Manderly will crush the Freys from behind

4.Stannis is a badass

5.Ramsay is an idiot

Take your pick, Roose is finished, he is as good as LampFrey pie!

Of course roose is cunning that's why he sent the manderlys and freys out because he knows that they are going to slaughter each other is snow and the rest stannis can take care of that he wants only his men in WF and he will not open the gates whether they win or lose.

[Weles]

You can't stay stannis is cunning also he does not inspire ppl to follow him, the storm lords went to his brother instead of him, i do hope he loses the battle.

I think Stannis has developed since the Battle of the Blackwater. He managed to gain support from the mountain clans, several northern houses and some subservience from the wildlings, not just by claiming to be the rightful king over and over like he did at the beginning of the War of Five Kings. He now knows that one must treat every potential supporter differently. Roose on the other hand has confused respect and loyalty with fear.

Of course roose is cunning that's why he sent the manderlys and freys out because he knows that they are going to slaughter each other is snow and the rest stannis can take care of that he wants only his men in WF and he will not open the gates whether they win or lose.

I just see that as a last resort solution to a situation that was running out of control, a situation he very clumsily put himself in. Roose hasn't given himself room to be cunning, if he had he wouldn't have to risk sacrificing his only truly strong supporters; the Freys. If it works, which it well might, it's going to be costly.

[Lord Varys]

The Stormlords followed Renly, because they were obliged to do so. They were sword to Storm's End, and its legal lord at that particular time was Renly Baratheon, not Stannis. Renly was a well-liked and charismatic figure, and he also won Highgarden and the whole Reach to his cause. If some Stormlords still considered Stannis to be the rightful king, they dared not to declare openly for him (Davos met with quite a lot of the Stormlords - they were afraid to pick the wrong side). Stannis had virtually no men, whereas Renly had the Tyrells, and King Joffrey Baratheon the Lannisters. Sticking to Renly was the smart thing to do since he was both their legal overlord (and thus capable to punish treason at once) and the guy with a good chance to deal with the Lannisters successfully.

After Renly's death most Stormlords declared for Stannis (although many of them must have suspected that Stannis had arranged/commanded Renly's murder).

Stannis is still neither a Renly nor a Robert charisma-wise, but if you compare him to quiet-voice Roose Bolton I guess he is going to win the popularity contest... Stannis has one quality any lord would want his king to have. He is just, impartial, and not a cruel, insidious maniac. Roose is no Ramsay, but he does not inspire loyalty in anyone. In fact, I'm quite sure Stannis is more or less exactly like most of the sterner Kings in the North/Lords of Winterfell of old. The fact that the mountain clans all declared for him is telling, because it indicates that they really consider him to be a leader who could fulfill the role of a Stark for the time being (and apparently they needed such a figure, else they could have liberated Deepwood Motte all by themselves, or could have taken Winterfell long before Roose thought about marching there). I really regret that we don't got a chapter about Stannis presenting himself to them ;-).

[bemused]

I don't think the Clans have actually declared for Stannis..They joined him because they wanted to free "Arya" and prevent the Boltons from establishing a hold on WF. I suspect all of the North has been waiting to be able to act in concert. Stannis is a recent wrinkle in their plans. I think from their viewpoint , it's more that they have to bring Stannis onside with them , so they don't have to fight him as well as Bolton.

[Silent_Hero]

Of course roose is cunning that's why he sent the manderlys and freys out because he knows that they are going to slaughter each other is snow and the rest stannis can take care of that he wants only his men in WF and he will not open the gates whether they win or lose.

He sent away his strongest supporters and is now locked inside a Castle with people who would gladly slit his throat, where's the Cunning? Roose is the most overestimated character in the books he is not as smart as people paint him to be.

[Harle The Handsome]

He sent away his strongest supporters and is now locked inside a Castle with people who would gladly slit his throat, where's the Cunning? Roose is the most overestimated character in the books he is not as smart as people paint him to be.

He is quite cunning, but under pressure even cunning people are prone to make mistakes. Clearly, once he noticed the Manderlys didn't bring hostages to Winterfell, he expected treachery, but open hostility between the Freys and Manderlys inside Winterfell was not quite expected and something had to be done quickly. I wouldn't be too surprised if he decides to let niether side back in after the battle with Stannis and they have t oenter using some sectret entrance, maybe from the crypt under Winterfell.

[CBroome1979]

Roose Bolton is definitely human, but I think a few wrinkles in his plans were developed that he couldn't possibly have had contingencies for:

The fact that Mance Rayder and the Spearwives were in Winterfell murdering men and generally causing discontent certainly helped pushed the already frayed edges of the alliance he has to the brink. Mance Rayder is supposed to be dead, and even if he wasn't, who would think to plan for him coming to Winterfell to stir the pot?

Also, the fact that Theon developed a backbone (once again, with a little prodding from Mance and the Spearwives) was certainly an unforeseen development. He appeared VERY broken for a while there...

Wyman Manderly's deception with Davos Seaworth is also unforeseen. Freys on hand witnessed the 'death' of the Onion Knight. Little does Roose know Davos is alive and well, on his way to return a Stark to Winterfell. Hopefully.

No matter how clever you are, you can't anticipate everything. I just think that even a very clever man wouldn't have anticipated these things happening. As far as his 'current' actions go, sending out the Freys, Manderlys, and his Bastard was the only logical choice. You send out a possible traitor, the most hated faction in all the North, and the out-of-control son who has become a liability.

[mbuehner]

Is it possible that Ramsay both killed Stannis and lost the battle?

So, under what circumstance would taunting John Snow into bringing an army of Wildlings and perhaps renegade Watch south help the Boltons? Bringing them if Stannis is alive simply adds to Stannis strength (he has no issue with wildlings, in fact his initial plan was to use them against the Dreadfort). Only if Stannis is dead and the campaign still in the balance would this work to Boltons' advantage.

Particularly if Rickon showed up with the Manderlys to swing the battle. Now we have a King in the North 'in charge' (at least as a figure head) with an army of northmen rallying to him, and the Boltons trapped in WF with no allies left. What could flip the tables on that better than another potential claimant to the throne marching in with an army of Wildlings? Roose could seek to cut a deal with the rest of the Northern houses under that threat, perhaps even seek to be named regent (unlikely) but at least negotiate his survival.

[Catacombs]

Roose is not really very clever at all. Littlefinger is clever. Varys is clever. Tywin was clever. Roose, not so much.

He is deceptive, immoral and an opportunist. He was also lucky. Theon took Winterfell, Ramsey switched places with Reek and Tywin Lannister needed him to play a role in the RW. Roose treated these events as an opportunity to exploit, but he was not the mastermind of any of them. Yes, he is cleverer than Ramsey, but compared to other characters in ASoIaF he is just so so.

Roose never struck me as one of the clever ones. Deception is the only card he knows how to play. When deception fails he has no back-up plan. He has been lucky, but his luck is running out. I would say that his brilliance is overrated.

[Silent_Hero]

He is quite cunning, but under pressure even cunning people are prone to make mistakes. Clearly, once he noticed the Manderlys didn't bring hostages to Winterfell, he expected treachery, but open hostility between the Freys and Manderlys inside Winterfell was not quite expected and something had to be done quickly. I wouldn't be too surprised if he decides to let niether side back in after the battle with Stannis and they have t oenter using some sectret entrance, maybe from the crypt under Winterfell.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why Roose has much of his men intact and why he married the daughter of the guy who started the RW, also Roose sent no hostages to the Freys, Roose has a low animal cunning much like Cersei I grant you but he is not as smart as people paint Him to be. His plan would have gone wrong even with Tywin alive.

[Lord Gautham Girishankar]

I think it will be Blackwater reversal for Stannis..they defeat the Freys, Manderly joins them...they cant break through Winterfell...they begin starving..so Stannis makes a mad dash for Winterfell..when all is lost Davos re-emerges with the Skagg army and Rickon in tow or Jon (in whatever form ) or Tormund Giantsbane emerges with Wildling army..Ramsay kills Roose..hell breaks loose and Mance Ryder/Jon Snow is named warden of the north by Stannis

[sumant30]

He is quite cunning, but under pressure even cunning people are prone to make mistakes. Clearly, once he noticed the Manderlys didn't bring hostages to Winterfell, he expected treachery, but open hostility between the Freys and Manderlys inside Winterfell was not quite expected and something had to be done quickly. I wouldn't be too surprised if he decides to let niether side back in after the battle with Stannis and they have t oenter using some sectret entrance, maybe from the crypt under Winterfell.

I am saying exactly the same thing and i don't think there is a way through crypts because otherwise bran and rickon would have known it and if a stark does not know it there is no possibility that someone like theon could know it so i think stannis is going to lose the battle of ice.

[sumant30]

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why Roose has much of his men intact and why he married the daughter of the guy who started the RW, also Roose sent no hostages to the Freys, Roose has a low animal cunning much like Cersei I grant you but he is not as smart as people paint Him to be. His plan would have gone wrong even with Tywin alive.

I don't think it is fair to compare cersi and roose because cersi acts on her feelings like when she is in rage she will do something thats why LF finds her so predictable while roose does not show his emotions any time.

[sumant30]

I think it will be Blackwater reversal for Stannis..they defeat the Freys, Manderly joins them...they cant break through Winterfell...they begin starving..so Stannis makes a mad dash for Winterfell..when all is lost Davos re-emerges with the Skagg army and Rickon in tow or Jon (in whatever form ) or Tormund Giantsbane emerges with Wildling army..Ramsay kills Roose..hell breaks loose and Mance Ryder/Jon Snow is named warden of the north by Stannis

How can ramsey kill rosse when he is surrounded by rooose's men also i don't think roose also trusts ramsey and knows what kind of person he is.

[sumant30]

Roose is not really very clever at all. Littlefinger is clever. Varys is clever. Tywin was clever. Roose, not so much.

He is deceptive, immoral and an opportunist. He was also lucky. Theon took Winterfell, Ramsey switched places with Reek and Tywin Lannister needed him to play a role in the RW. Roose treated these events as an opportunity to exploit, but he was not the mastermind of any of them. Yes, he is cleverer than Ramsey, but compared to other characters in ASoIaF he is just so so.

Roose never struck me as one of the clever ones. Deception is the only card he knows how to play. When deception fails he has no back-up plan. He has been lucky, but his luck is running out. I would say that his brilliance is overrated.

Although RW was a idea of tywin but making it come to fruition i don't think someone would be able to pull that off when you have freys with you.

[sumant30]

He sent away his strongest supporters and is now locked inside a Castle with people who would gladly slit his throat, where's the Cunning? Roose is the most overestimated character in the books he is not as smart as people paint him to be.

Who are the people inside WF who will slit his throat the umbers? i don't think so he has kept all his men in WF and sent warring manderlys and freys outside he knows they will turn on each other so what he plans for them is an ice pudding.

[sumant30]

The Stormlords followed Renly, because they were obliged to do so. They were sword to Storm's End, and its legal lord at that particular time was Renly Baratheon, not Stannis. Renly was a well-liked and charismatic figure, and he also won Highgarden and the whole Reach to his cause. If some Stormlords still considered Stannis to be the rightful king, they dared not to declare openly for him (Davos met with quite a lot of the Stormlords - they were afraid to pick the wrong side). Stannis had virtually no men, whereas Renly had the Tyrells, and King Joffrey Baratheon the Lannisters. Sticking to Renly was the smart thing to do since he was both their legal overlord (and thus capable to punish treason at once) and the guy with a good chance to deal with the Lannisters successfully.

After Renly's death most Stormlords declared for Stannis (although many of them must have suspected that Stannis had arranged/commanded Renly's murder).

Stannis is still neither a Renly nor a Robert charisma-wise, but if you compare him to quiet-voice Roose Bolton I guess he is going to win the popularity contest... Stannis has one quality any lord would want his king to have. He is just, impartial, and not a cruel, insidious maniac. Roose is no Ramsay, but he does not inspire loyalty in anyone. In fact, I'm quite sure Stannis is more or less exactly like most of the sterner Kings in the North/Lords of Winterfell of old. The fact that the mountain clans all declared for him is telling, because it indicates that they really consider him to be a leader who could fulfill the role of a Stark for the time being (and apparently they needed such a figure, else they could have liberated Deepwood Motte all by themselves, or could have taken Winterfell long before Roose thought about marching there). I really regret that we don't got a chapter about Stannis presenting himself to them ;-).

I don't think you can say roose is a maniac i think he is a cunning man who had beef with starks and almost succeeded in wiping out their bloodline.

[sumant30]

I think Stannis has developed since the Battle of the Blackwater. He managed to gain support from the mountain clans, several northern houses and some subservience from the wildlings, not just by claiming to be the rightful king over and over like he did at the beginning of the War of Five Kings. He now knows that one must treat every potential supporter differently. Roose on the other hand has confused respect and loyalty with fear.

I just see that as a last resort solution to a situation that was running out of control, a situation he very clumsily put himself in. Roose hasn't given himself room to be cunning, if he had he wouldn't have to risk sacrificing his only truly strong supporters; the Freys. If it works, which it well might, it's going to be costly.

I think everyone has cleverly forgotten that roose has all his men in WF his staunchest supporters :P

[sumant30]

Roose managed to deceive Robb by acting in the background, plotting with the Lannisters and Freys, Robb had to handle all insubordinations and now Roose has put himself in that role. The Red Wedding gave him power momentarily but he is doomed in the long run. Managing the different houses "sworn" to him while rooting out deflectors AND fighting a war against Stannis is an entirely different task. Roose is cunning, but inspires little loyalty. Stannis, I think, has both traits.

But I might be wrong, anything can happen.

It was robb's own foolishness he should have never married jeyne which cost him the freys or trusted theon which still can be argued in his side.

[Gobiel]

Dude, use the multiquote or we might think that you want to increase your messages counter ;)

More to the point. It is clear that you like Roose for some reason, but Roose has also his fears, we can tell it from the scenes with Theon where he tells his doubts, and where he has fears in his eyes (at the wedding feast, Theon looks at him).

He has some Bolton garrison, it is clear, and he has a certain cunning, but, as someone said (can't who to whom, but the whom might be Arya or Sansa) that the most dangerous blade wasn't the one that your foe brandished against you, but the blade that was kept in your back. Even considering the great food supplies, I can't see Roose keeping Winterfell for too long after the first chapters of tWoW :/