Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[Winnief]

100% agree about Stannis.

As far as Shireen, she is a living reminder of the failings of the mother in the mother's eyes to produce a healthy male heir. The mother is totally insane and has also been cold and cruel to Shireen. Then you have the Wildlings calling her a dead girl and believing she has full blown Grey Scale. Mel has shown she will do anything to hold onto her power/survive. With Jon out of the picture, hopefully temporarily, the Wildlings will be in control at the Wall. All hell is going to break loose. I really do not want to be right on this.

I came to this theory before last nights show, and I try to keep the show separate, but it just shoved it back into my thoughts. That was a very creepy scene.

That worries me too. I especially worry that it won't be Theon's blood but Shireen's death that's used to resurrect Jon. God I hope I'm wrong about that. I'm hoping that while at some point Selyse, and/or Mel inevitably consider sacrificing Shireen-maybe even try to do it, they don't actually succeed-that someone stops them.

After winning the battle of Winterfell, I could see Stannis making use of blood magic, (quite possibly using his own blood,) to heal Shireen's scars, which would actually be a noble end for Stannis, since I don't think he'll survive the series.

[barmyscouser]

He wouldn't do that. That was his intention when he believed the North would unite under a legitimized Jon Stark and the king who saved the Wall, period, but after his talks with Jon he knows that it won't be so easy. Since then everything he's done has been with winning the Northmen over in mind, like feasting with the mountain clans and asking their support, driving the Ironborn out of Northern castles, and marching on Winterfell to fight the Boltons and rescue 'the Ned's little girl'. Burning the godswood would be counter to everything he's experienced since arriving at the Wall.

Melisandre hasn't lost interest in Stannis whatsoever.

Stannis was marching south into peril, the king who carried the fate of the world upon his shoulders, Azor Ahai reborn. Surely R'hllor would vouchsafe her a glimpse of what awaited him. Show me Stannis, Lord, she prayed. Show me your king, your instrument.

The wooden man she had glimpsed, though, and the boy with the wolf's face … they were his servants, surely … his champions, as Stannis was hers.

Huh, I had never connected that prophecy to the events at Winterfell. Nice, although I wonder about what the seahorses and seashells means if this is a relevant prophecy.

Mel's transition from Stannis to Jon was probably not as quick as I described it. But there's this.

Mel: My place is here with you (Jon) and your brave brothers.

and this.

mel: I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R’hllor shows me only Snow.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

That worries me too. I especially worry that it won't be Theon's blood but Shireen's death that's used to resurrect Jon. God I hope I'm wrong about that. I'm hoping that while at some point Selyse, and/or Mel inevitably consider sacrificing Shireen-maybe even try to do it, they don't actually succeed-that someone stops them.

After winning the battle of Winterfell, I could see Stannis making use of blood magic, (quite possibly using his own blood,) to heal Shireen's scars, which would actually be a noble end for Stannis, since I don't think he'll survive the series.

I'm not worried about Shireen. And I'll tell you why:

In the ACoK prologue, Stannis and his Maester Cressen consider marrying Shireen to Sweetrobin, but Selyse craps on the plan. Stannis, though, considered it. It's on his mind.

And we know very well that the Vale needs to enter the story. They and Dorne are the only ones with an army left. If Aegon is going to get Dorne through Arienne, who is going to get the Vale?

The only other girl around Sweetrobin's age is Mycella, but she's in Dorne betrothered to Trystane.

Now, yes, Littlefinger is poisoning Sweetrobin and wants Sansa to somehow marry Harry the Heir for the Vale. But, that's not going to happen because:

1) No announced plan in these books ever goes according to plan

2) Every indicator is overwhelmingly pointing to Sweetrobin dying, which really shows he will live.

Shireen and Sweetrobin sitting in a tree....

[Winnief]

I'm not worried about Shireen. And I'll tell you why:

In the ACoK prologue, Stannis and his Maester Cressen consider marrying Shireen to Sweetrobin, but Selyse craps on the plan. Stannis, though, considered it. It's on his mind.

And we know very well that the Vale needs to enter the story. They and Dorne are the only ones with an army left. If Aegon is going to get Dorne through Arienne, who is going to get the Vale?

The only other girl around Sweetrobin's age is Mycella, but she's in Dorne betrothered to Trystane.

Now, yes, Littlefinger is poisoning Sweetrobin and wants Sansa to somehow marry Harry the Heir for the Vale. But, that's not going to happen because:

1) No announced plan in these books ever goes according to plan

2) Every indicator is overwhelmingly pointing to Sweetrobin dying, which really shows he will live.

Shireen and Sweetrobin sitting in a tree....

That's actually not a bad theory-I'd kinda like better than SR for Shireen, but then again now that he's away from Lysa he's already showing signs of improvement. Continue having him fostered by the likes of Bronze Yohn and he might grow up to be a decent guy. Still prefer Shireen with Rickon though, since that would finally unite the Stark/Baratheon bloodlines.

[barmyscouser]

I'm not worried about Shireen. And I'll tell you why:

In the ACoK prologue, Stannis and his Maester Cressen consider marrying Shireen to Sweetrobin, but Selyse craps on the plan. Stannis, though, considered it. It's on his mind.

And we know very well that the Vale needs to enter the story. They and Dorne are the only ones with an army left. If Aegon is going to get Dorne through Arienne, who is going to get the Vale?

The only other girl around Sweetrobin's age is Mycella, but she's in Dorne betrothered to Trystane.

Now, yes, Littlefinger is poisoning Sweetrobin and wants Sansa to somehow marry Harry the Heir for the Vale. But, that's not going to happen because:

1) No announced plan in these books ever goes according to plan

2) Every indicator is overwhelmingly pointing to Sweetrobin dying, which really shows he will live.

Shireen and Sweetrobin sitting in a tree....

I agree but.

This is not a tick of GRRM. It is a grand convention of human storytelling. Whether you're at the cinema, watching tele, listening to an old friend or attending a school play, if there's a plot afoot, and the conspirators spell out all the deets a forehand, the plot will fail. If they huddle close and the scheme is revealed as it's carried out, it will succeed. Exceptions are few. Exceptions are far.

[Uldra I]

1) No announced plan in these books ever goes according to plan

Really gotta say, I love that about GRRM and these books. :D What a ride!

[Captain Ratchet]

That's actually not a bad theory-I'd kinda like better than SR for Shireen, but then again now that he's away from Lysa he's already showing signs of improvement. Continue having him fostered by the likes of Bronze Yohn and he might grow up to be a decent guy. Still prefer Shireen with Rickon though, since that would finally unite the Stark/Baratheon bloodlines.

can shireen even bear children with GS and sicly robin

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

can shireen even bear children with GS and sicly robin

It's never mentioned as a problem, so I assume she can.

This is the discussion from the ACoK prologue:

"There are others you might sound out as well. What of Lady Arryn? If the queen murdered her husband, surely she will want justice for him. She has a young son, Jon Arryn's heir. If you were to betroth Shireen to him-"

"The boy is weak and sickly. Even his father saw how it was, when he asked me to foster him on Dragonstone, Service as a paige might have done him good, but that damnable Lannister woman had Lord Arryn poisoned before it could be done, and now Lysa hides him in the Eyrie. She'll never part with the boy, I promise you that."

"Then you must send Shireen to the Eyrie. Dragonstone is a grim home for a child. Let her fool go with her, so she will have a familiar face about her."

"Familiar and hideous. Still...perhaps it is worth trying..."

Stannis is nearly convinced until his wife buts in:

"Must the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms beg for help from widow women and usurpers?"

So, the barriers were:

1) Sweetrobin was weak

2) Stannis didn't want to beg

3) Stannis' wife is an idiot

Not that Sweetrobin isn't still sickly and not that Stannis wants to beg, but there has been a slight improvement in Sweetrobin's health and a slight humbling of Stannis' ego over time. Stannis' wife is still an idiot, though.

[Red Tiger]

Stannis has changed his thinking on this. He now has built a coalition army from the mountain clans. I think he is no longer the Iron man that Noyal spoke of, but has slowly become a bit more flexible. He did not march on the Dreadfort, but instead took Jon's advice. He was going to kill Davos, but the Red Woman said he would need him, so he spared him.

I do not see Stannis burning Weirwoods, if he does he will lose the North instantly.

That's the show, in the books Stannis decides to spare Davos himself.

For me it all comes down to how good a military commander Roose turns out to be. I fully believe he was working against Robb from the beginning and willingly lost to Tywin.

Im gonna say Stannis crushes them with guile and espionage, he fully knows he'll have to take the Twins somewhere down the road to truly get the job done.

[Talking Hodor]

He'll defeat Bolton, only to have a swarm of Others and wights overrun him in the end. Winter is here.

[kn1tt3r]

I'm quite certain that the batlle won't be a glorious victory of Stannis. It would just be too obvious and far too many people are rooting for that outcome.

He still might win the battle , but solely because of the northeners inside Winterfell turning against the Boltons. In the end I suspect there will be quite some complicated haggling about who's going to control Winterfell / the North.

I still hope Roose survives though, but I guess I'm in the minority there. *g*

[Winnief]

For me it all comes down to how good a military commander Roose turns out to be. I fully believe he was working against Robb from the beginning and willingly lost to Tywin.

Agreed. Frankly that was a bigger problem than Robb's marrying Jeyne and Cat's bad call to release Jaime combined in my view. They could have survived the latter mistakes-but one way or another Roose was determined to stab Robb in the back.

However, I think Stannis will still defeat him, because of his incredible stamina and willpower-and because none of Roose's "allies" are like to stay loyal to him as Roose knows full well. Hell, I'm expecting Manderly's troops to join Stannis and open up the gates to them. Basically, Roose has walled himself in with a bunch of enemies and that's a very, very dangerous position to be in.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Stannis is a way better military commander than Roose can ever hope to be.

Stannis is going to roast Bolton men inside WF.

[Tankbuster]

Winterfell kinda seems like Constantinople with it's double wall and nigh impregnable fortress status, so perhaps Stannis conquers WF by taking a secret postern gate conveniently opened by the good lady Dustin.

And Hi :laugh:

[The Squid of Pyke]

Stannis will destroy Ramsay and Roose completely, giving the most epic YOLO speech before battle and wearing King Robert's armor in all glory , proclaiming himself the man who will bring justice to the North and rightful King of Westeros. House Manderly soldiers will kill the Bolton men from within, the Freys with them. Then LittleFinger's army arrived (much to our annoyance) and routed the battered army of House Baratheon. The Others arrived, eventually and everyone was overwhelmed in darkness.

[The brown snake]

Hopefully Stannis wins.... But I hope the two captured Greyjoy siblings are able to slip away.

Also I am a firm believer of the R+L=J theory, but one of the only ways to prove it is to basically put him in a fire and hope he has enough targ blood not to be burnt alive.

[Guard of the Rainking]

If we talk about the Battle of Ice look how many advantages Stannis has. 1. The Karstarks are captured and the attacking force doesn't know about it.

2. The 500 Manderly men will most likely turn on the Bolton/Frey forces.

3. Since Aenys died Hosteen is the current commander of the Frey forces. You might remember him as Ser Stupid.

4. Stannis' army consists of as many as 4 000 Northmen while the Bolton vanguard of 2 000 Frey men 500 Manderly men and whatever small force Roose gave Ramsay. So Stannis has the force more suited for the terrain.

5. Stannis has numerical advantage.

6. Stannis is a better commander than anyone on the Bolton side, and the Bolton forces best commander Roose Bolton is staying at Winterfell.

The following Siege of Winterfell will be a different matter, but if the Stannis beats the vanguard and the Manderly forces join him he might even have more men than Roose has inside Winterfell. Now the Hornwoods, the Umbers, the Tallharts, the Cerwyns, the Flints and the Lockes inside Winterfell are fighting for the hated Boltons who are at numerical disadvantage and don't even have Arya Stark as their hostage anymore. The Cherry on the top would be, if Davos arrived with Rickon to the scene.

The Boltons are not the big threat to Stannis. The loyalty of the Northern forces that are supporting him is the bigger problem. However I think, that the GNC is full holes like: Why would Manderly send Davos to get Rickon? In what place and when did the Northern lords decide this? Why are they going through all this trouble for what 1000 - 1100 southern men that Stannis has?...

[CyberKlown28]

He has the advantage for this first battle. But is so outnumbered and trying to siege a castle where 10 men could hold off a hundred. Manderly/other rebels really need to cause some trouble to allow Stannis to win this. Jon and the wildlings would have been a big help.

[Guard of the Rainking]

He has the advantage for this first battle. But is so outnumbered and trying to siege a castle where 10 men could hold off a hundred. Manderly/other rebels really need to cause some trouble to allow Stannis to win this. Jon and the wildlings would have been a big help.

Roose has about 4 000 Bolton men inside the Dreadfort (I doubt that he'll give Ramsay a large force). I'm not sure how many men the Ryswells and the Dustins have inside the castle, or even of how loyal they truly are to Roose. If Stannis can get some of the not so loyal vassals of Roose inside Winterfell on his side, he could have them open the gates for the rest of his forces outside to come in. He could even send the Manderly men and some of his men disguised as Karstark, Frey and Bolton men inside the castle to open the gates.

[LooseRoose11095]

I always had the feeling Stannis might end up killing the Manderly soldiers - we don't know whether they know of Manderly's plans, and Wyman himself is in no position to be leading them. Also, in the preview chapter for Theon, Stannis seems pretty hostile to the Manderlys as well as Freys and Boltons.

I don't think Roose is in such a dire situation. Even though some people say he's in deep shit now Tywin's bit the dust, Barbrey Dustin suggests Roose might want to be King in th north, and calls the Lannisters 'a spent force'.

So, I'm not too sure whether Stannis will win at Winterfell... (I think he might win the Battle in the Ice, but that's not Winterfell)

:)