Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[sumant30]

Long ago ?.. :D..( sorry to have to disagree .. I liked one of your posts on another thread... ;))

No , I don't think it can be more than 3yrs. or so since Benjen went missing. (At the very maximum, four ) Arya was 8 when she left WF..Jon was 14..somewhere, more recently ( when he receives the engagement letter ?) I believe Jon thinks Arya would be about 11 or so ( maybe 12 at most ). When Jon meets Alys Karstark , she looks to be too old to be Arya.. She says she was 16 on her last nameday...Jon thinks she's ...almost of an age with him.. again , allowing the most time possible to have elapsed , that would make Jon 18 ( or maybe as young as 17). But even if we take the oldest estimate for Jon , four years would not be "long ago" to the CoTF. ( I think it's more like 3 yrs, but I don't mind calling it 4 for the sake of argument.)

I do kind of want to tear my hair out when people say, Benjen wouldn't break his oath to the NW , though. Are we to think that Benjen is less intelligent than Jon ? If Jon can see that outworn convention has to be cast aside, and it's the spirit of the core tenets of the oath that count, I'm sure Benjen could as well...and wherever he is , why should we assume that his intention is not to return to the watch ? Why should we assume he has deserted ? Perhaps , on his ranging , one thing has led to another and he still has something important to do first.

Though I can see possibilities for the HM to be some other Northman, I think Benjen would best bring together the various hints and suggestions strewn throughout the novels . Winterfell and the Wall both built by Bran the builder..magic being used in the raising of the Wall ..Must always be a Stark in WF ..secret passages..Starks having a special relationship to the Wall , and being looked to for leadership by the Northerners .

So , Benjen left on his ranging to learn what was going on north of the wall and if the Others had really returned. We know the CoTF and BR have been guiding Bran. We know they have CH at their disposal, to aid people they see as important in the struggle against the Others. Why not Benjen ? If they see two Starks as key to their efforts , why not a third ?

Of course, GRRM may have another path entirely in mind for Benjen, but if he does place him in WF, there will be good reason for it, and I'd bet without tarnishing Benjen too much..

If he's been briefed by BR and the CoTF and returned to WF by way of the gate under the Nightfort, he could still have left the obsidian and horn at the Fist. If he travelled by some other route ( CoTF tunnels), CH could easily have left them.

The thing is we don't know benjen as yet how a person he was? we know ned was very honorable man and brandon was a wild one, how was benjen we do not know even in the story told by meera to bran she only mentioned brandon,ned and lyanna there was no benjen in it so we can't predict how he was ? if he was more like his elder brother i think we would have definitely seen him when ned was executed he would have at least been there, but as he was lost in ranging in north i think word would not have reached him so also of the robb's rebellion then the sack of WF so we can assume here that he does not know what has taken place in WF since he left for ranging, so i highly doubt he can come back to WF.

[bemused]

We know Benjen was the First Ranger of the Night's Watch. This implies skill and intelligence. He was respected by other respected leaders of the Watch , such as Jeor Mormont , Qhorin Half hand , Maester Aemon , etc.

Meera does mention Benjen ,but he was only a "pup" at the time.

I think we can easily assume that he can have been in touch with Bloodraven , the CoTF and CH on his ranging. He might have found his way to them , or they may have sought him out , or rescued him , as they did Sam. ..If he was with them , he would of course have known about Ned , Robb , WF, and possibly more, since BR tells Bran he will eventually be able to see into the future, as well as the past and present.

If you believe they could / would recruit him to their cause after he was dead , I don't know why you would think they couldn't do it while he was alive.. If there is some very important reason he should go back to WF that has to do with the common good and resistance against the Others, they would know and be able to tell him.

Maybe that won't be the way GRRM writes it, but the possibility absolutely exists. We've seen all the necessary elements written about in Bran's and Sam's storylines, hinted at in many many places..we can't deny that they could come together in Benjen's story.

[Catacombs]

If he's been briefed by BR and the CoTF and returned to WF by way of the gate under the Nightfort, he could still have left the obsidian and horn at the Fist. If he travelled by some other route ( CoTF tunnels), CH could easily have left them.

He is the First Ranger and his mission as a member of the NW is to fight The Others. If that required there to be Stark in Winterfell and his ranging took him there then he would not be breaking any vow.

It seems logical to me that characters hidden but often discussed in the first five books will play a bigger role in the last two. Of those, I think Howland Reed, Benjen Stark and Gerion Lannister are likely to become active and know players in the story. That Benjen's story arc would take him to BR's cave to the Fist of the First Men to Winterfell would not be a surprise.

[sumant30]

He is the First Ranger and his mission as a member of the NW is to fight The Others. If that required there to be Stark in Winterfell and his ranging took him there then he would not be breaking any vow.

It seems logical to me that characters hidden but often discussed in the first five books will play a bigger role in the last two. Of those, I think Howland Reed, Benjen Stark and Gerion Lannister are likely to become active and know players in the story. That Benjen's story arc would take him to BR's cave to the Fist of the First Men to Winterfell would not be a surprise.

How can benjen survive such a harsh winter alone, and i think ranging only involved beyond the wall.

[aryagonnakill]

I remember Benjen telling Jon all the way back in GOT that he would always care for Ned but that his brothers were at the wall now. If Benjen actually knew that getting a Stark in Winterfell could help defeat the others somehow then that wouldn't be breaking his vows, but we have no way of knowing that this is so. I definitely don't think he would be in Winterfell unless it had to do with the NW i don't think he would ever break his vows.

[sumant30]

I remember Benjen telling Jon all the way back in GOT that he would always care for Ned but that his brothers were at the wall now. If Benjen actually knew that getting a Stark in Winterfell could help defeat the others somehow then that wouldn't be breaking his vows, but we have no way of knowing that this is so. I definitely don't think he would be in Winterfell unless it had to do with the NW i don't think he would ever break his vows.

Agreed because he is a stark after all which is good as well as bad.

[bemused]

I remember Benjen telling Jon all the way back in GOT that he would always care for Ned but that his brothers were at the wall now. If Benjen actually knew that getting a Stark in Winterfell could help defeat the others somehow then that wouldn't be breaking his vows, but we have no way of knowing that this is so. I definitely don't think he would be in Winterfell unless it had to do with the NW i don't think he would ever break his vows.

True.We have no way of knowing this is so, but to my mind, we have many hints to lead us to suspect this is so.

The very least of these ( without considering any of the magical reasons or forces that may come into play ) is that we know that the Starks and WF have always been a friend to the Watch, supported the watch , acted in concert with the watch to prevent incursions ( Raymun Redbeard ) and stamp out threats to the wall and the Watch ( Night's King ). The same cannot be said of the Boltons , and definitely not the Lannisters.

Proceeding south from the wall , WF is the next most northerly stronghold with massive defenses , should a breakthrough occur.

The greatest threat from the Others that has been seen in a thousand years is looming, and the wall is pitifully undermanned.

Agreed because he is a stark after all which is good as well as bad.

And what would be the bad , and what the good if Benjen turns up in WF ? Bad or good for what or whom ? Might not the concept of bad or good change depending on the circumstances ? ..Or are we all meant to think like Bowen Marsh ?

[sumant30]

True.We have no way of knowing this is so, but to my mind, we have many hints to lead us to suspect this is so.

The very least of these ( without considering any of the magical reasons or forces that may come into play ) is that we know that the Starks and WF have always been a friend to the Watch, supported the watch , acted in concert with the watch to prevent incursions ( Raymun Redbeard ) and stamp out threats to the wall and the Watch ( Night's King ). The same cannot be said of the Boltons , and definitely not the Lannisters.

Proceeding south from the wall , WF is the next most northerly stronghold with massive defenses , should a breakthrough occur.

The greatest threat from the Others that has been seen in a thousand years is looming, and the wall is pitifully undermanned.

And what would be the bad , and what the good if Benjen turns up in WF ? Bad or good for what or whom ? Might not the concept of bad or good change depending on the circumstances ? ..Or are we all meant to think like Bowen Marsh ?

I meant good in the sense that starks because they have very high honor the man bran meets while traveling to wall tells him that even a maiden was safe on road when we had a stark in WF, and bad in the sense that they expect the same from other people due to which they have been so outplayed until now.

[bemused]

I just look at it as one of GRRM's games of Cyvasse...actually more like a series of matches like we see between Tyrion and Ben Plumm... No one should expect to get to the end without losing a few pieces. To be able to win , the player has to learn to predict the other man's game. Don't expose your most important pieces too soon. If your opponent enjoys early success , even if it was costly to you , he's likely to become over confident and make a few fatal errors.

Ned let himself get talked into a game , but his heart wasn't in it.In fact , he was taking over a game half played by Jon Arryn. Cat let her game be ruled by emotion. Robb became over confident , and fell victim to cheating.. All the other Starks have been learning the game as they go , but have only just begun to make serious moves.

The current set of Starks have been learning not to expect honour in their opponents. We have yet to see how they'll do , but they're coming into their games better prepared . They'll have had the benefit of observing how others have played and the outcome of their matches.

Honour is admirable in the Starks but it's probably not the only "good" quality they have .

[sumant30]

I just look at it as one of GRRM's games of Cyvasse...actually more like a series of matches like we see between Tyrion and Ben Plumm... No one should expect to get to the end without losing a few pieces. To be able to win , the player has to learn to predict the other man's game. Don't expose your most important pieces too soon. If your opponent enjoys early success , even if it was costly to you , he's likely to become over confident and make a few fatal errors.

Ned let himself get talked into a game , but his heart wasn't in it.In fact , he was taking over a game half played by Jon Arryn. Cat let her game be ruled by emotion. Robb became over confident , and fell victim to cheating.. All the other Starks have been learning the game as they go , but have only just begun to make serious moves.

The current set of Starks have been learning not to expect honour in their opponents. We have yet to see how they'll do , but they're coming into their games better prepared . They'll have had the benefit of observing how others have played and the outcome of their matches.

Honour is admirable in the Starks but it's probably not the only "good" quality they have .

I agree but regarding robb i think he won all the battles but he could not manage his allies properly and once the freys were lost everything got harder and harder for him if it had been jon in his place i think he would have done better because from the advice he always gave stannis jon has a very good brain for stratergy, regarding arya i think she will become one of the most powerful characters sansa is gonna become hopefully a major game player which the starks need very badly someone who knows the game, rickon is going to be the wild wolf the unforgiving one and bran a greenseer.

[Bloodroyal]

Alright. So we already know that Stannis is planning to make use of his position and he has already proposed some tactical master plan on how to crush the Freys. The leader of the Freys is an idiot and they will be trapped between Stannis and Manderly. Their superior number of heavy cavalry will be of little use in a blizzard and Stannis's men can try to break the ice and that way, the Frey host could be separated in several parts and it will weaken their communication and many will die. At the same time, Manderly backstabs the Freys and they finish the remnants of his host.

Loyalty of the Northern lords is shaky and if they find out the truth about Bolton's part in RW and should the time come, they will betray their "liege" at the first opportunity.

From the bastard letter, we learn about the battle of WF and it's "outcome". However, Ramsay didn't get his hands on Theon etc. possible meaning that the letter is false. Stannis has a Dreadfort maestro, whom he can use to spread disinformation in Bolton's host. The Manderly can them come back to WF, claiming that they have crushed Stannis and bring his sword. But in reality they will be in leagues with Stannis and when the castle sleeps, they will open the gates and Stannis's army will get inside the castle and many lords will turn cloak and finally both Roose and Ramsay gets captured or killed, entire Bolton host gets massacred and Northern lords will swear fealty to him, once Rickon comes back from Skagos

[Lord_Tyrell]

I think Manderly's men will turn on Roose's and the Freys, especially when Ramsay leaves with a significant portion of his men to recapture his wife and precious Reek. It won't be too much of a battle really.

[ThePrintThatWasPromised]

Stannis. He's 20 times better at the art of war than Ramsay and won't fall for one of the Bastard's dirty tricks. If parlay is offered as bait for a trap, he won't take it because Renly soured him on the idea. He'll probably trick Ramsay himself by getting him to attack across the frozen lake and cracking the ice when he's in the middle. Ramsay will fall for it easily because, despite being a capable military leader as evidenced in the Sack of Winterfell, he's too vain to even consider that anyone else could fool him. As for how Stannis will fool him, I'm guessing he'll sacrifice some of his men by putting them out on the ice and leading Ramsay to believe they're his entire force. It's a harsh move, but the Citadel probably has Stannis' portrait next to 'harsh' in their dictionaries.

After the battle, the Manderlay force will go over to Stannis' side and Stannis will take Winterfell with their help and Theon's know-how...right as the Wildling host that Jon rallied at The Wall and told about their captive, decidedly-unburnt king arrives to free Mance.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Stannis will rout the Frey/Bolton alliance, Ramsay will die but Roose will escape across the narrow sea.

[Brother Seamus]

Ramsay will go after "Arya" , because she legitimizes their claim in the eyes of the North.This is important in Roose's eyes and the Lannisters' ..whose original plan was to secure WF through Tyrion's marriage to Sansa.

Ramsay will have taken some Bolton men with him ( he would need men known to be loyal to try to recapture "Arya" ) , so Roose's force will be depleted somewhat. The other Northmen will turn against him when it comes down to it.

This may be another small point in favor of the pink letter being from Ramsay. Ramsay has to get fArya back, and can't just let her go, not so much because keeping Arya at winterfell is necessary to legitimize his claim (he'd still be lord of WF if she died for example, right?) but because once she gets to the wall it will be known she's fake, and the more time passes the more widely known it becomes. his first goal must be to head her off before she gets there; fall-back goal is to get to the wall and kill everyone who knows she's a fake, or at least as many as possible.

if she were the real Arya it might not be so important he get her back.

[Brother Seamus]

Stannis. He's 20 times better at the art of war than Ramsay and won't fall for one of the Bastard's dirty tricks. If parlay is offered as bait for a trap, he won't take it because Renly soured him on the idea. He'll probably trick Ramsay himself by getting him to attack across the frozen lake and cracking the ice when he's in the middle. Ramsay will fall for it easily because, despite being a capable military leader as evidenced in the Sack of Winterfell, he's too vain to even consider that anyone else could fool him. As for how Stannis will fool him, I'm guessing he'll sacrifice some of his men by putting them out on the ice and leading Ramsay to believe they're his entire force. It's a harsh move, but the Citadel probably has Stannis' portrait next to 'harsh' in their dictionaries.

After the battle, the Manderlay force will go over to Stannis' side and Stannis will take Winterfell with their help and Theon's know-how...right as the Wildling host that Jon rallied at The Wall and told about their captive, decidedly-unburnt king arrives to free Mance.

This is more or less my guess too, except:

1. I'm not so sure Ramsay ever makes it to the battle on the ice, and I don't think he's killed at that point. I think the Freys are wiped out, and Manderly changes sides though. I think the pink letter is genuinely from Ramsay, albeit full of lies.

2. I think Rickon, Davos, and a decent-sized force of Skagosi arrive somewhere in the middle of all this, and in part frustrate Stannis' plans. In short, just as Stannis has more or less secured the loyalty of the north, little Rickon will show up and undermine that. it will be unclear and disputed for a while whether rickon is king in the north or merely lord of wf and vassal of stannis/IT. this will piss Stannis off to no end.

[Panther2000]

Dude. EVERYONE hates the Freys — the Lannisters hate them, the Riverlords hate them and the Northerners ESPECIALLY hate them because they know exactly what they did. They're not fooling anybody. Tossing them under the bus will probably be the smartest thing Roose Bolton ever did.

I have to agree, however both Freys & RB & his ilk. No one really trust either of these houses. Roose already knows that things weren't right & was eager to send both groups out head. Theon picked up on the fear in Roose's eyes. Both houses will get what is coming to them & then some. & I can't wait. I just hope that Walter Frey doesn't die of old age. That man needs to suffer bigtime.

[Mourneblade]

It appears that the Freys will drown in the lake. Then Stannis will have his forces dress as the Freys with the turned Manderlys and infiltrait Winterfell. Roose will more than likely have left for the Dreadfort, but Ramsey will have no such luck.

Check out the patch face prediction on this.

"I will lead it. We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh."

[shiola]

I don't have ay specific ideas... But I think Stannis will win the battle but die in the process.

[barmyscouser]

I don't believe Stannis will win for 2 reasons. The first is that If Stannis won decisively, the first thing he would do would be to cut down the Godswood of Winterfell. But that's like LF raping Sansa. Even GRRM has boundaries.

The other reason is that in the larger story, Stannis is a vehicle for Melisandre to meet Jon. Mel literally loses all interest in Stannis when she meets Jon. Stannis lost at the Blackwater because he didn't have Mel with him. This time she doesn't want to go. Now that Stannis has served his purpose, this battle looks like a good way to kill him.