Did Robert's Rebellion lack popular appeal?

[The Fallen]

Early to mid teens. He was Lyanna's little brother, who was sixteen when she died late in the war.

Ah yes, forgot about her. They were in dire straits then. But then again, it would not have mattered if there were three possible heirs, if they lose the rebellion it's a wrap for House Stark.

[LordBloodraven]

No, the burning was just a way to shout "I'm the king" and the man who needs to claim his kingship is no king at all (paraphrasing Tywin)

[Ruthven]

No, the burning was just a way to shout "I'm the king" and the man who needs to claim his kingship is no king at all (paraphrasing Tywin)

The man who exterminated the Reynes and Tarbecks? Add that to The Bullsh!t of Tywin Lannister, volume 2 (of 23).

We know that Aerys was mad - Jaime and Barristan's memories of serving in his KG tell us that - but apart from the way he killed Brandon and Rickard, how would the rest of Westeros have known? How would other Targ kings have reacted to Brandon demanding the head of the Heir to the throne? How would Tywin or Stannis, or any other lord you care to mention have acted?

Is what Aerys did so much different from what Dany does in Yunkai? Or Jon beheading Janos Slynt? Or Stannis burning Rattleshirt?

Someone said earlier "Varys caused the paranoia". But Varys was right.

[redviper9]

Something that strikes me.

The whole realm (according to Jaime) knew king Aerys was losing his mind. During the course of the war four Lords Paramount raise their banners to fight him and in all but one of those regions, namely the north, they face opposition from bannermen who stay loyal to the king. Jon Arryn had to fight a lord loyal to Aerys at Gulltown, Hoster Tully had a fair few Targ loyalists among his banners and Robert of course fought Summerhall against Stormlords. The thing though is that no one, it seems, decided to defy the king where an LP didn't take the lead. The Reach is the big example here. The Tyrells stayed loyal to Aerys and they don't have a massive amount of sway over their banners (see CoK). As far as we know no one in Dorne or the Westerlands was saying, hey, lets go and help Robert, king Aerys is behaving illegally and burning folk and demanding heads, in violation of his feudal contract, despite the fact other bannermen defied their LPs on the king's behalf. Finally, the rebel army at the Trident, 35,000 men, is kinda small for the joint forces of the North, Vale and much of the riverlands and stormlands, while Aerys had 40,000 with his son and another big army under Mace at SE. Anyway, it's funny how we, as readers, tend to support Ned, Jon and Hoster whereas most of westeros, it seems, were not that enamoured.

Thoughts?

You know, I'd never actually put much thought into why the Tyrells remained loyal. I was always pictured Tywin as Achilles sulking in his tent, brooding on the wrongs Aerys had done him and refusing to participate (with a dash of Walder Frey, since Tywin decided to get involved only when it became clear who was going to win). The Martells were basically strong-armed into supporting Aerys, since he not-so-subtly reminded them that Elia, her children, and Prince Lewyn were in King's Landing. Not sure what to make of the Tyrells. They might have been doing well under Aerys; by all accounts, despite his growing insanity and paranoia, the realm prospered (remember Ned's disbelief when he discovered the extent to which Robert had indebted the realm, especially in light of the full coffers left by Aerys). Personal loyalty might have played a part, since it was the Targaryens who raised the Tyrells from stewards to lords paramount of the Reach. They may also have seen an opportunity to seize the Stormlands for themselves and/or their bannermen (after the War of the Five Kings, Mace has no problem expropriating the Florents). Or maybe they just didn't care about the deaths of Brandon and Rickard, or perhaps they saw them as cautionary tales for those who defy the Mad King, since -- as has been pointed out above -- Aerys was technically still within the bounds of legality.

Regarding the numbers at the Trident, I'm actually not too surprised. As you pointed out, only the North had all its bannermen squarely in the rebel camp. The River lords were evenly divided amongst rebels and loyalists, and the Freys didn't even bother showing up for either side. Not all the lords of the Vale answered Jon Arryn's call. And the Tyrell army and Redwyne fleet might have effectively prevented the Storm lords loyal to Robert -- both inside and outside Storm's End -- from making the journey to the Trident (I'm sure if given a choice, Stannis would have much preferred to be in the battle). Remember too that Connington's defeat at the Battle of the Bells led the loyalists to mobilize their full strength before the next battle. Barristan Selmy and Jon Darry had taken command of the remnants of Jon Connington's army; Lewyn Martell had taken command of the Dornish forces sent by Doran, and Rhaegar had finally reappeared. The loyalists took the Trident as seriously as the rebels, it's just that they came undone once Robert's hammer found its mark.

[Chaircat Meow]

You know, I'd never actually put much thought into why the Tyrells remained loyal ... Personal loyalty might have played a part, since it was the Targaryens who raised the Tyrells from stewards to lords paramount of the Reach. They may also have seen an opportunity to seize the Stormlands for themselves and/or their bannermen (after the War of the Five Kings, Mace has no problem expropriating the Florents). Or maybe they just didn't care about the deaths of Brandon and Rickard, or perhaps they saw them as cautionary tales for those who defy the Mad King, since -- as has been pointed out above -- Aerys was technically still within the bounds of legality.

Yea, I do think the loyalty of all the Reach suggests Aerys was still seen as, by and large, a rational actor, and not someone whose actions couldn't be reasonably predicted, despite his cruelty and extreme paranoia.

Regarding the numbers at the Trident, I'm actually not too surprised. As you pointed out, only the North had all its bannermen squarely in the rebel camp. The River lords were evenly divided amongst rebels and loyalists, and the Freys didn't even bother showing up for either side. Not all the lords of the Vale answered Jon Arryn's call. And the Tyrell army and Redwyne fleet might have effectively prevented the Storm lords loyal to Robert -- both inside and outside Storm's End -- from making the journey to the Trident (I'm sure if given a choice, Stannis would have much preferred to be in the battle). Remember too that Connington's defeat at the Battle of the Bells led the loyalists to mobilize their full strength before the next battle. Barristan Selmy and Jon Darry had taken command of the remnants of Jon Connington's army; Lewyn Martell had taken command of the Dornish forces sent by Doran, and Rhaegar had finally reappeared. The loyalists took the Trident as seriously as the rebels, it's just that they came undone once Robert's hammer found its mark.

Yea again, I think Mace's inactivity makes a lot more sense if his army is functioning as a kind of occupation force for the Stormlands, requiring Robert's men there to shadow it, or remain in their castles to prevent Tyrell sending men to ravage their lands.

[redviper9]

Riffing off of the Baratheon-Stark-Tully marriage alliance that was taking shape prior to the rebellion, I've always been curious about what the end game was. Did they really intend to move against Aerys? Or was this just a simple consolidation of power? It would be interesting to see what marriage plans -- if any -- Rickard had for Ned and Benjen. I'm also curious as to what the plan for Stannis was; him marrying Lysa might have been an option had it not been for the rebellion and her aborted pregnancy.

Anyway, I know this isn't strictly on topic, but it did come up in the thread.

[redviper9]

Yea again, I think Mace's inactivity makes a lot more sense if his army is functioning as a kind of occupation force for the Stormlands, requiring Robert's men there to shadow it, or remain in their castles to prevent Tyrell sending men to ravage their lands.

It could have also been a good way of ensuring that any Dornish army marching north wasn't attacked by the Storm lords. If they're too concerned about Mace, Randyll Tarly, Paxter Redwyne, and company possibly ravaging their lands, it might be best to leave the Dornishmen alone.

[Chaircat Meow]

Riffing off of the Baratheon-Stark-Tully marriage alliance that was taking shape prior to the rebellion, I've always been curious about what the end game was. Did they really intend to move against Aerys? Or was this just a simple consolidation of power? It would be interesting to see what marriage plans -- if any -- Rickard had for Ned and Benjen. I'm also curious as to what the plan for Stannis was; him marrying Lysa might have been an option had it not been for the rebellion and her aborted pregnancy.

Anyway, I know this isn't strictly on topic, but it did come up in the thread.

It could have been an alliance that didn't possess any one endgame as such, but rather was a response to the situation westeros faced: an unstable king, and an heir who wouldn't take any action. The situation was becoming volatile esp since Tywin took himself home. So, a number of plans may have occurred to Rickard and Hoster (and Jon); to promise each other they would stand firm for Rhaegar if Aerys summoned Tywin to his aid in the event of a father-son war, and maybe, to connect themselves with the best non-Targ candidate for the throne, Robert, if things really got sticky (which they did), although maybe this is stretching it a bit. I don't know when they arranged these marriages though, so that would be the biggest clue in terms of intent.

[James Arryn]

I don't think much of the Mad King's madness would even translate as all that mad even if the realm had full disclosure.

Medieval monarchs went to all kings of lengths to make certain excecutions as gory and painful as possible. Being dragged through the streets, hung until passing out, revived so that you're awake when they slice open your stomach, draw out your innards and cook them in front of you, then being torn apart by horses, etc.

Real history doesn't read all that sane from that POV. I think most lords would have taken a longer view, especially as Aerys was getting on and the heir apparent seemed to be a great one in the making.

[King Daemon Blackfyre]

It could have also been a good way of ensuring that any Dornish army marching north wasn't attacked by the Storm lords. If they're too concerned about Mace, Randyll Tarly, Paxter Redwyne, and company possibly ravaging their lands, it might be best to leave the Dornishmen alone.

Its always best to do that :smoking:

[Jem]

It could have been an alliance that didn't possess any one endgame as such, but rather was a response to the situation westeros: faced an unstable king, and an heir who wouldn't take any action. The situation was becoming volatile esp since Tywin took himself home. So, a number of plans may have occurred to Rickard and Hoster (and Jon); to promise each other they would stand firm for Rhaegar if Aerys summoned Tywin to his aid in the event of a father-son war, and maybe, to connect themselves with the best non-Targ candidate for the throne, Robert, if things really got sticky (which they did), although maybe this is stretching it a bit. I don't know when they arranged these marriages though, so that would be the biggest clue in terms of intent.

In terms of when the marriages where arranged, Cat recalls (in one of her earlier chapters in AGOT, I think) that she was betrothed at age 12. So assuming she was about 18 by the time her marriage to Brandon was due to take place, that particular alliance was in place for about 6 years or so before the beginning of the Rebellion.

It must have been kept very quiet though, Lady Dustin did think that she could marry Brandon and Petyr Baelish thought that he could marry Cat - he was dreaming, obviously, but he still thought it was possible and he acted very rashly when he eventually did find out not long before the actual wedding. I

[redviper9]

In terms of when the marriages where arranged, Cat recalls (in one of her earlier chapters in AGOT, I think) that she was betrothed at age 12. So assuming she was about 18 by the time her marriage to Brandon was due to take place, that particular alliance was in place for about 6 years or so before the beginning of the Rebellion.

It must have been kept very quiet though, Lady Dustin did think that she could marry Brandon and Petyr Baelish thought that he could marry Cat - he was dreaming, obviously, but he still thought it was possible and he acted very rashly when he eventually did find out not long before the actual wedding. I

Thanks for citing Cat's memory...I had completely forgotten about that.

Do we know when Robert and Lyanna were betrothed to each other? Given her conversation with Ned about how Robert would never be faithful, I always got the impression that she was aware of Mya Stone, Robert's first bastard. Mya is what, late teens/early twenties when we meet her? So I'm guessing a couple of years before Harrenhal for the Robert/Lyanna engagement.

[GallowsKnight]

Anyone reading something sinister in the Stark-Tully-Baeretheon-Arryn connection is as paranoid as Aerys.

Brandon was simply marrying Catelyn as is common for first born sons of Lord-Paramounts to marry someone of similar standing. Tywin wanted Jaime to marry Lysa Arryn in a similar situation.

Ned and Robert were wards together and friends in the Vale. There's no special connection between Stark and Baeretheon before then. The Arryns are close to the North and were enemies as often as allies so friendship with them are good for the Starks. Sending Robert to the Vale makes sense, the Stormlands are small and you wouldn't want your lord paramount being influenced or even held hostage by the lords of Dorne, the Reach or the West. But the Vale is similar in culture still being "southern" but far enough not to be concerned that way.

Then Robert became infatuated with Lyanna because she was a wild beauty.

Jon Arryn only married Lysa Arryn after the rebellion as part of a deal with Hoster Tully.

[Jem]

Anyone reading something sinister in the Stark-Tully-Baeretheon-Arryn connection is as paranoid as Aerys.

Brandon was simply marrying Catelyn as is common for first born sons of Lord-Paramounts to marry someone of similar standing. Tywin wanted Jaime to marry Lysa Arryn in a similar situation.

Ned and Robert were wards together and friends in the Vale. There's no special connection between Stark and Baeretheon before then. The Arryns are close to the North and were enemies as often as allies so friendship with them are good for the Starks. Sending Robert to the Vale makes sense, the Stormlands are small and you wouldn't want your lord paramount being influenced or even held hostage by the lords of Dorne, the Reach or the West. But the Vale is similar in culture still being "southern" but far enough not to be concerned that way.

Then Robert became infatuated with Lyanna because she was a wild beauty.

Jon Arryn only married Lysa Arryn after the rebellion as part of a deal with Hoster Tully.

Just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you.

Aerys might have been paranoid about a lot of things, but if he and/or Rhaegar were worried about a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliance I think that they had a good right to it.

It is, in fact, not common for a lord paramount's heir to marry the eldest daughter of another lord paramount. Most lords paramount and their heirs marry the daughters of their own bannermen, or more rarely, the daughters of lesser nobles in other regions.

The fact that Rickard Stark was marrying his heir to the eldest daughter of another lord paramount and his only daughter to yet another lord paramount is very, very unusual and highly suspicious.

[LordBloodraven]

The fact that Rickard Stark was marrying his heir to the eldest daughter of another lord paramount and his only daughter to yet another lord paramount is very, very unusual and highly suspicious.

How uncommon is that? Tywin wanted to marry Jaime to Lysa and Cersei to Rhaegar. Doran married the Norvoshi and his sister the crown prince. Stannis married into the Florents, a house from another region. After all these years of stability and peace, it's not unusual for Great Lords to try to build links from Houses of another region.

[Chaircat Meow]

I think it's pretty unusual for the Starks at the very least.

[GallowsKnight]

It is, in fact, not common for a lord paramount's heir to marry the eldest daughter of another lord paramount. Most lords paramount and their heirs marry the daughters of their own bannermen, or more rarely, the daughters of lesser nobles in other regions.

The fact that Rickard Stark was marrying his heir to the eldest daughter of another lord paramount and his only daughter to yet another lord paramount is very, very unusual and highly suspicious.

Except the Lannister and Martells were organizing Lord-paramount marriages Jaime to Lysa Tully. Oberyn and/or Elia Martell to Jaime and/or Cersei. I don't think we know enough about the Targaryan reign to make sweeping statements about it.

Baeretheons and Martells have married into the Royal family over the years.

[Chaircat Meow]

If Aerys hadn't spiked Tywin's guns at HH it would have been Lannister-Tully-Stark-Baratheon. The Arryns filled up the place left by Tywin. That's not just a joining of two houses but a potential alliance across half of the realm.

[LordBloodraven]

Well, I guess after 275 years of Targ rule, the Starks decided to involve themselves more into the realm affairs. Afterall what would be the point of a unified Westeros if ever Lord had to concern himself and marry into with a house from his region?

[Jem]

How uncommon is that? Tywin wanted to marry Jaime to Lysa and Cersei to Rhaegar. Doran married the Norvoshi and his sister the crown prince. Stannis married into the Florents, a house from another region. After all these years of stability and peace, it's not unusual for Great Lords to try to build links from Houses of another region.

It is extraordinarily uncommon. And I am not talking about marrying into the royal family - the royals can do as they please - I am talking about restrictions between the paramount families.

And we don't know that Tywin actually wanted to marry Jaime to Lysa. That was just a fear that Jaime got into his head when he visited Riverrun and Lysa was making goo-goo eyes at him, and then Cersei later teased him about it. There is no evidence that Tywin and Hoster actually had any plans in motion - but even if they did as Bran the Cute said above, it is possible that Twyin was originally in on the alliance at some stage.

There is nothing wrong with Stannis marrying into the Florents because the Florents are not a paramount house. There was always intermarriages between the paramount houses and the lesser nobles of other regions, as I stated earlier. Besides we are talking about the period before the Rebellion.

Doran can marrying an outlander. That has nothing to do with anything.

Except the Lannister and Martells were organizing Lord-paramount marriages Jaime to Lysa Tully. Oberyn and/or Elia Martell to Jaime and/or Cersei. I don't think we know enough about the Targaryan reign to make sweeping statements about it.

Baeretheons and Martells have married into the Royal family over the years.

The Oberyn-Cersei, Jaime-Elia thing was just something cooked up between the mothers who were friends - wishful thinking at the most. nothing official whatsoever, and as we know this never ever happened.

And as I said, we are not talking about marrying into the royal family - they can do whatever they want. We are talking about marriages between the paramount families - specifically between the heirs of such families to the eldest/only daughters of other paramount families.