Winning Northern independence

[King Daemon Blackfyre]

Been pondering Robb's failed campaign.

Post the War of Conquest and the Dance of Dragons, what is the best way for a Stark lord to win and secure independence for the North and a returned crown for himself as King in the North? Not just winning it, but holding onto Northern independence into the long-term, all the while facing severe opposition from the Targaryens on the Iron Throne (assume its sometime during the Targaryen dynasty, but their dragons are dead by now), is the crucial element in this question.

Please outline a full suite of:

Short-term military and political strategies (when would you declare independence, how you would conduct your military campaign (where to fight battles, sieges), which Northern bannermen would be crucial, etc); and

Long-term economic and diplomatic strategies, (including ways to build the economy of the North so its not as poor vis-a-vis the Seven Kingdoms, seek allies outside Westeros (and which ones) to help you, how you would feasibly improve Northern defences, arms and power projection over the years to prevent invasions by the Iron Throne, Wildlings and Ironborn, what to do with the Wall/Nights Watch - is it a solely Northern responsibility now, etc).

[Rolex Baratheon]

After you have declared independance: Do not go South to fight. There's nothing of interest to you down South, just put up heavy defenses at Moat Cailin and at each castle of yours. Keep your navy alert as well. Let the royal army come to your home ground and fight.

Before declaring independance: Declare independance at a time when there are no important Northern officials in King's Landing or anywhere where they could be taken hostage. Restrict movement of people in and out of the North via Moat Cailin so as to delay the process of news and rumours reaching the Targaryen King about your plans. Call your banners, get your men ready for defending the North as swiftly as you can so that youre ready by the time its becoming official that you're declaring independance.

[The BlackBear]

Before, build a fucking Western Fleet! I don't understand how they haven't got one. All their war ships are on the East side. If someone wanted to invade they'd sail the Arbour fleet up the Western coast and take castles and raid with very little resistance.

The key I think is to keep harrying any army that gets to your shores (they'd have to land, if we assume the Moat is impregnable.) and ensure Whiteharbour stays free.

If I were to invade the North, I'd land in the west march across and siege WH, but not storm it. Go clear out the Moat from the North. Then march the largest army up the Causeway I can, and take WhiteHarbour. Even if Winter beats you back every year, you should be able to keep up a significant base there to retreat to every year, choking off most trade and a hell of a lot of taxes. And keeping the Moat open to you.

So obviously from the Northern point of view, Stop western fleets, protect WH, and maybe build a castle North of the Moat to try and at least stop/harrass unwanted Southbound armies.

[GallowsKnight]

You need the Iron Islands on your side. There's no other way. The fleet in White Harbor might be able to hold off the Royal Navy, but you need the Iron Fleet to block the Redwynes from your West coast.

Make peace with any possible King Beyond the Wall. Marriage, Lordships whatever. More men to arm and use.

Diplomatically you need Braavos to help you. You can make longterm contracts for supplying them with lumber and they can bank roll you and help with their navy. They don't like Valyrians that might help.

Rebuild Moat Caitlin or reinforce it. Sure it held before but this is the rest of Westeros united against you.

Most Important don't broadcast your movements, just start paying less taxes, reinforce the Moat, make allies, train men and build ships. It's not until the Targaryans give any reason do you declare.

[The BlackBear]

Diplomatically you need Braavos to help you. You can make longterm contracts for supplying them with lumber and they can bank roll you and help with their navy. They don't like Valyrians that might help.

Whilst the Iron Bank may choose to help the North, they were already supplying the Targs for centuries before, so the Valyrian thing probably wouldn't go either way. And would they be keen on war in Westeros? That'd reduce their returns.

[Hear Us Roar]

War is never that simple. If i make a move, you can make a move i did not see coming, and a third guy can make his move. The second and the fourth guy could team up etc. Northern independence is not feasible. The South will always be richer, more populated and will lust after the North. Not for resources but as a status symbol. Eventually they would be invaded in summer and it would go like any other war. The South can field nearly 200,000 men and they can just land all over the North in the various fleets. The 20,000 northmen would be outnumbered and stretched thin. The Ironmen would also take advantage by reaving the Northern coast further weakening the North. Northern independence is not possible because the North was conquered, that idea will always be in men's hearts, they will not let it remain and the North lacks numbers and money to do too much.

[The BlackBear]

War is never that simple. If i make a move, you can make a move i did not see coming, and a third guy can make his move. The second and the fourth guy could team up etc. Northern independence is not feasible. The South will always be richer, more populated and will lust after the North. Not for resources but as a status symbol. Eventually they would be invaded in summer and it would go like any other war. The South can field nearly 200,000 men and they can just land all over the North in the various fleets. The 20,000 northmen would be outnumbered and stretched thin. The Ironmen would also take advantage by reaving the Northern coast further weakening the North. Northern independence is not possible because the North was conquered, that idea will always be in men's hearts, they will not let it remain and the North lacks numbers and money to do too much.

I think the North would struggle to survive as well. But Scotland did against the English, they lost a hell of a lot of battles, but they always beat the English back in the end. Russia, is more like the North in terms of climate, and it and the residents, butchered Napoleon, and Hitler.

The question is IF the South can bring it's numbers to bear, they'd have to land them, or ride them through the moat, the first is difficult, finding safe landing on an unfamiliar shore, with deep hulled boats. And you'd have to get them off the boats before any force is arrayed against you. And no matter how big the Redwyne fleet is, you can't get all that many men in the boats in one go. If you take the Moat though there's a serious fighting chance.

[GallowsKnight]

Eventually they would be invaded in summer and it would go like any other war. The South can field nearly 200,000 men and they can just land all over the North in the various fleets. The 20,000 northmen would be outnumbered and stretched thin.

The South would never be able to properly supply a fraction of those numbers in the North. They'd need to take the Moat. I think the North could probably field a lot more on their own territory as the men aren't going to be away from the fields and harvests that long. You've got the Clans and Crannogmen too. It's not a lot more, but every man helps.

[Free Northman]

Northern independence is VERY feasible.

In short. The cost for the South of conquering the North will dwarf the value of conquering it by a factor of about 100 to 1.

And frankly, the realm cannot afford a drawn out multi year campaign to try and subdue the North.

Firstly, you'd need about 200,000 soldiers to do it, and the long distances, huge supply lines and massive losses in human life would bankrupt the realm and probably cost the King his Throne in very little time.

In the absence of Dragons a King on the Iron Throne will not be able to generate the loyalty required from all his quarreling southern bannermen for long enough to follow such a campaign through to fruition.

If the North is truly determined to be independent, the South cannot take and hold them in the long term.

In fact, after the first major defeat where the South loses 30,000 or so men in the North, open rebellion will probably break out in the South, as the endeavour's worth starts being questioned by lords who don't see the value in the pursuit.

And once Winter arrives, it will all just go to hell.

[Free Northman]

The South would never be able to properly supply a fraction of those numbers in the North. They'd need to take the Moat. I think the North could probably field a lot more on their own territory as the men aren't going to be away from the fields and harvests that long. You've got the Clans and Crannogmen too. It's not a lot more, but every man helps.

There are at least 40,000 Northmen, not 20,000. And for the South to mobilize and project 200,000 men all the way into the North, will cost them about 100 times as much as it will cost 40,000 Northmen to defend their own lands.

And every year that the campaign drags on will bankrupt the realm further. Give it 3 years, and the Iron Throne would collapse. That's if the Dornish or Tyrells don't rise in rebellion before then when they see the King weakened by a pointless war in the "savage Northern wastes".

[Free Northman]

A small example is Jon's lesson to Stannis.

"To get to the Dreadfort you need to march through Umber lands for 300 miles. Mors Crowfood knows every nook and cranny of that land and will bleed you dry before you get there."

Or something to that effect.

The bottomline is that the King in the North must have the support of ALL his bannermen before embarking on his independence drive. Because the one thing that can hurt him is rebellion from the inside.

So I would first do a few Rains of Castemere jobs on Boltons and any other lords of doubtful loyalty, and then once I have my realm rock solid behind me I would seal off the borders and tell the South to come and get me if they can.

[Myrish Swamp Thing]

You have to pick your moment, I wouldn't want to test Moat Caitlin against a fully united South. Also, get yourself a nice navy based on White Harbor, make a deal with the Ironborn, and see if I can find friends in Essos.

[Free Northman]

You have to pick your moment, I wouldn't want to test Moat Caitlin against a fully united South. Also, get yourself a nice navy based on White Harbor, make a deal with the Ironborn, and see if I can find friends in Essos.

A fully united South is probably only possible in the face of an existential threat such as a Dothraki invasion. In the absence of Dragons, I reckon a King on the Iron Throne could keep the South fully united on a Northern campaign for maybe 1 year at most.

What is probably posssible, is a constant presence of about 30,000-50,000 troops on the northern campaign. But if that force should be lost in the initial stages of the War, convincing the lords to raise and project a second force over all that distance, for the gain of just the "distant, icy north", will become more difficult.

Especially if - as usual - there is already animosity between Dorne and the Reach, between the Westerlands and the Riverlands, and between the Ironborn and everyone, and with the Realm bleeding money on an unprecedented scale to supply all these armies in the North.

[MagnusPrime]

For the North to regain its independence it would need to have begun a military buildup during the time it was a vassal of the Iron throne. This means the reestablishment of standing eastern and western fleets. Routine training of the men at arms and the establishment or reinforcing of garrisons at vital points.

You will have to make common cause with the Iron Born. And set up trade with the free cities closest to the North. Also the wildling threat has to be nipped in the bud. Don't want them fucking up your best laid plans by invading.

As others have said then you have to time the announcement of independence at the right time.

[Barty]

Just after the first Blackfyre rebellion would be perfect timing - the north did not send any men to fight so are at full strength, the south has just fought a huge battle and lost thousands of men, the lords loyal to the blackfyres won't be supporting the IT or if they would then it will probably be like how the riverlords support the Lannisters in their siege of riverrun - one defeat and all hell breaks lose.

Build a navy - if I am not mistaken then ships can move through the marshlands if they have a guide ( Robb says so to Mallister before he sends Mormont and Glover to GW). So your navy will have a quick way of moving between the eastern and western shores - you can use this to surprise any enemy landing force which thinks your navy is on the other side of westeros.

[TheSmalljon]

If I were to invade the North, I'd land in the west march across and siege WH, but not storm it. Go clear out the Moat from the North. Then march the largest army up the Causeway I can, and take WhiteHarbour. Even if Winter beats you back every year, you should be able to keep up a significant base there to retreat to every year, choking off most trade and a hell of a lot of taxes. And keeping the Moat open to you.

So obviously from the Northern point of view, Stop western fleets, protect WH, and maybe build a castle North of the Moat to try and at least stop/harrass unwanted Southbound armies.

You can't just land your army anywhere on the western shore and march to Winterfell. You'd be suffering constant harassment all the way and would have to keep your army fed somehow. The North can field some 30.000 men to march to war. And even more when they're on the defensive so your army would have to be at least 40k-50k strong (If you were allowed to land your entire army completely unmolested). Those numbers can't survive on the sparse conditions of the North. Even if you'd get to Winterfell you would be planting yourself in the heart of the North and completely surrounding yourself with foes on all sides. And Winterfell can hold out a siege for a year. Robb was having problems keeping his troops fed when he called his banners and could't stay in one place for long and got out of the North as quickly as he could. (Also because his dad was a prisoner.) So you would not be able to hold a siege for very long. And if the Starks managed to ally themself with the Iron Islands you wouldn't get close the western shore.

[The BlackBear]

You can't just land your army anywhere on the western shore and march to Winterfell. You'd be suffering constant harassment all the way and would have to keep your army fed somehow. The North can field some 30.000 men to march to war. And even more when they're on the defensive so your army would have to be at least 40k-50k strong (If you were allowed to land your entire army completely unmolested). Those numbers can't survive on the sparse conditions of the North. Even if you'd get to Winterfell you would be planting yourself in the heart of the North and completely surrounding yourself with foes on all sides. And Winterfell can hold out a siege for a year. Robb was having problems keeping his troops fed when he called his banners and could't stay in one place for long and got out of the North as quickly as he could. (Also because his dad was a prisoner.) So you would not be able to hold a siege for very long. And if the Starks managed to ally themself with the Iron Islands you wouldn't get close the western shore.

Well for starters I didn't say Winterfell, I said white Harbour. But looking at the map now, my plan has been slightly altered, but not much. Sail up Blazewater Bay, then land to the South East of Barrowton and march on Moat Cailin. Bring Your army up from the South and go straight to White Harbour. And whilst the North can field that many men, it takes a considerable amount of time to summon them all, and they can't know for sure where you're going to hit. And remember that they will be suffering with food conditions as well. As long as you get the Neck open you can get a solid supply line. As long as you move swiftly enough you can get Moat Cailin and the majority of your men up pretty rapidly. Get White Harbour and you control the 'mouth' of the North.

Not to say it'd be easy by any means, just saying that is the weakest point of defence.

And the Iron Islands don't do alliances, they're too pig headed to. They'll do what they did in TWo5K fight everyone and everything they could.

[GallowsKnight]

You get Braavos on side and there going any eastern naval attack.

Well for starters I didn't say Winterfell, I said white Harbour. But looking at the map now, my plan has been slightly altered, but not much. Sail up Blazewater Bay, then land to the South East of Barrowton and march on Moat Cailin. Bring Your army up from the South and go straight to White Harbour. And whilst the North can field that many men, it takes a considerable amount of time to summon them all, and they can't know for sure where you're going to hit. And remember that they will be suffering with food conditions as well. As long as you get the Neck open you can get a solid supply line. As long as you move swiftly enough you can get Moat Cailin and the majority of your men up pretty rapidly. Get White Harbour and you control the 'mouth' of the North.

Not to say it'd be easy by any means, just saying that is the weakest point of defence.

And the Iron Islands don't do alliances, they're too pig headed to. They'll do what they did in TWo5K fight everyone and everything they could.

The North's going to be able to mobilize far faster than you expect. In this scenario they know they're going to have to fight so they'd have called the banners earlier.

There is at least a hundred miles there landing point and Moat Caitlin and that's as the crow flies. That's with Northmen nipping at your flanks the whole time over ground they know. To move fast you'd need horses and that means more ships, but if you adequately provision then you're slowed down by carts and wagons which take up even more room. It's a logistical nightmare.

I'll grant it's probably easy enough to take White Harbor for a time, even years, but as soon as Winter comes it'll be Brandon "Ice Eyes" Stark all over again. Taking it in the first place is likely to be bloody as the Manderlys are well equipped navally and militarily.

The Northmen are going to be better supplied in the North and better at living off the land. Even if they open the Neck there's Crannogmen and other Northmen who only have to target the supply lines and avoid open battle with Southern soldiers.

The Iron Islands might not do an alliance but they could see the benefit in Raiding the understrength Riverlands, Westlands and Reach while all their men are at war, versus a North filled with fighting men from both sides.

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

First, the North loses more than it gets from Independence, more Integration would be the way to go. Secondly, I'd agree that fleets are very important, because you don't want the enemy armies to land or rather you want to cut off their supplies. Having an enemy army landed means that you must then play "catch-me-if-you-can" with them which might not be the best war tactic in the middle run for your economic base. Thirdly, in the long run that means that you'd need more population and you'd need a Eastern harbour as well. That means they should try to found a larger city on the Eastern Coast, maybe Deepwood Motte is suitable. And lastly, you'd need Southern allies, for trade and everything. Why didn't the seven kingdoms opt for Independence after Robert's Rebellion btw.?

So basically, what does he gain from Independence that cannot be achieved by delaying taxes? It's not as if the Southern King demands outrageous things from his vassal kingdoms...

[GallowsKnight]

So basically, what does he gain from Independence that cannot be achieved by delaying taxes? It's not as if the Southern King demands outrageous things from his vassal kingdoms...

Manderly manages to build his new fleet completely from taxes withheld from Joffrey. It's likely that just not having to pay taxes would be worth it alone. I agree though I'd simply not pay taxes until it became an issue. The North seemed to do well enough for the thousands of years pre-Conquest.