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Apple Martini

The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined

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Here's my theory: I have said, for a while, that the Northmen are using Stannis as a means to an end (and yes this includes Manderly, although it's speculative as to whether he knows about Jon; more on that in a sec) and have no real intention of bending the knee or recognizing his authority when all is said and done. BUT ... they need someone to flush the Boltons out.

I kind of took that for granted, because don't some of them pretty much state they're not doing this for Stannis but the Ned's girl? NW vows and bastardy or not, the North is pretty desperate, and I think a case could be made for Manderly's, uh, enthusiasm even without a formal decree from Robb given that Jon could be a rallying figure as the Ned's eldest living "offspring" anyway.

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I kind of took that for granted, because don't some of them pretty much state they're not doing this for Stannis but the Ned's girl? NW vows and bastardy or not, the North is pretty desperate, and I think a case could be made for Manderly's, uh, enthusiasm even without a formal decree from Robb given that Jon could be a rallying figure as the Ned's eldest living "offspring" anyway.

I actually agree, but at least a few people seem to think that the northerners will eventually fall into line and form the basis of a kingdom for Stannis. I'm arguing, no, they have no intentions of recognizing Stannis as king and never did.

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I actually agree, but at least a few people seem to think that the northerners will eventually fall into line and form the basis of a kingdom for Stannis. I'm arguing, no, they have no intentions of recognizing Stannis as king and never did.

Really? lol, is there anything Rabid Stannis Fans (or RSFs for short) won't argue? (I joke, all you RSFs are lovely).

No, I think they respect Stannis, but they're only doing this because their current interests happen to align with his.

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Really? lol, is there anything Rabid Stannis Fans (or RSFs for short) won't argue? (I joke, all you RSFs are lovely).

No, I think they respect Stannis, but they're only doing this because their current interests happen to align with his.

Yes, I love Stannis too, but he's being led up a creek here I'm afraid. :P

And yes a few times I've tried to argue that Manderly is blowing sunshine up Davos' ass and some of them are like, "Naw Manderly will swear fealty to Stannis."

These kids.

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Well, also, say they do declare Jon legitimate, not part of the Night's Watch and king of the north. What do they do with him? The wall is indefensible, White Harbor is a city, this leaves the Umber's Castle, the Dreadfort which is full of boltons, and Winterfell. They atleast need to retake Winterfell before they make it clear to everyone that there is still a King in the North. If Stannis takes Winterfell all bets are off.

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Well, also, say they do declare Jon legitimate, not part of the Night's Watch and king of the north. What do they do with him? The wall is indefensible, White Harbor is a city, this leaves the Umber's Castle, the Dreadfort which is full of boltons, and Winterfell. They atleast need to retake Winterfell before they make it clear to everyone that there is still a King in the North. If Stannis takes Winterfell all bets are off.

Also a good point.

You guys this shit gives me chills, for realz. :drool:

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Well, also, say they do declare Jon legitimate, not part of the Night's Watch and king of the north. What do they do with him? The wall is indefensible, White Harbor is a city, this leaves the Umber's Castle, the Dreadfort which is full of boltons, and Winterfell. They atleast need to retake Winterfell before they make it clear to everyone that there is still a King in the North. If Stannis takes Winterfell all bets are off.

The Dreadfort is actually empty of Boltons - Ramsay left a garrison of old men and green boys behind. What Dreadfort is full of is men loyal to the Starks(the smallfolk of winterfell). It is highly possible that if they hear Jon is outside the Dreadfort with an army, some of them will open the gates for him.

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The Dreadfort is actually empty of Boltons - Ramsay left a garrison of old men and green boys behind. What Dreadfort is full of is men loyal to the Starks(the smallfolk of winterfell). It is highly possible that if they hear Jon is outside the Dreadfort with an army, some of them will open the gates for him.

I was under the impression that all the men were put to the sword, and only the women were taken.

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The Dreadfort is actually empty of Boltons - Ramsay left a garrison of old men and green boys behind. What Dreadfort is full of is men loyal to the Starks(the smallfolk of winterfell). It is highly possible that if they hear Jon is outside the Dreadfort with an army, some of them will open the gates for him.

From what I understood they were all prisoners. Yeah, that's a lot of people for possibly not a lot of dungeons, but I have a feeling the Dreadfort is fairly plentiful in the dungeon area. This could work if some were given freedom of the castle, like Osha was in Winterfell, but that would probably be too dangerous for the Boltons to do since they don't want word of what really happened at Winterfell to get out.

Edited to add-

I under the impression that all the men were put to the sword, and only the women were taken.

I forgot about that. A woman or child could still be the one to open the gate, as someone (I forget who) did to allow the mountain's men into Harrenhal after Bolton leaves, but that goes back to what I initially posted about how everyone's still probably locked up.

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The only possible problem I see with the Northern Conspiracy is that Jon might actually be dead(Correct me if I am wrong - he is stated to be dead in the app isn't he?) and Davos brings Rickon to Stannis instead of Manderly. This would leave the northerners with no choice but to follow Stannis.

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I under the impression that all the men were put to the sword, and only the women were taken.

I can't seem to find a quote anywhere in the wiki - You are probably right. Ramsay is brutal enough to do it.

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The only possible problem I see with the Northern Conspiracy is that Jon might actually be dead(Correct me if I am wrong - he is stated to be dead in the app isn't he?) and Davos brings Rickon to Stannis instead of Manderly. This would leave the northerners with no choice but to follow Stannis.

Yeah, Jon being dead (or undead or wounded or however you want think of it) is the hangnail at the moment. I'm just walking through the plan up to now.

As for Davos and Rickon, there's the description of Manderly being a little too happy at the wedding. I suspect that Robett Glover is "hanging back," somewhere close to Winterfell but out of sight, ready to move in with reinforcements if something happens. I think that Manderly's good mood is caused, in part, from learning off-screen from Glover that Davos has come back with Rickon. Meaning, Rickon is in northern custody. Obviously this won't be confirmed or disproved until the next book, but that's my hypothesis.

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Also a good point.

You guys this shit gives me chills, for realz. :drool:

What does this app say about the status of Jon Snow anyway? Is he alive, dead, wounded? All this planning is all for naught if his mortal body kicks it.

Edit: nevermind got the answer below me

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The only possible problem I see with the Northern Conspiracy is that Jon might actually be dead(Correct me if I am wrong - he is stated to be dead in the app isn't he?) and Davos brings Rickon to Stannis instead of Manderly. This would leave the northerners with no choice but to follow Stannis.

Not exactly, no. The app lists a "place of death" for him at the top of his entry in a "quick facts" section, but then the rest of the text of the main entry never states he's actually dead.

I don't think listing the "place of death" means much in terms of literal death, since Sandor Clegane also has a "place of death listed" and I'm 99.9% sure he's the gravedigger. I think it simply means that Jon "Snow" is dead, he's killed that boy and Jon ______ will wake.

ETA: When the will emerges, he's actually Jon "Stark" now anyway, subject to change if he figures out his parentage.

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This opens up a whole can of worms. If the letter moved North and Robb was already discussing plans of crannog men assaulting Moat Caillin which we see in Dance, then there has probably been contact. Meaning Howland knows, and may be in motion. Implications being that Barbrey Dustin was poking around the crypt looking for confirmation about Jon, and they're holding back because they know that Jon is a Targaryen, and not a Son of Ned. So they'll install Rickon in Winterfell, and do what with Jon? Not to mention all the crackpot possibilities for the Hooded Man are more probable.

Still, I really like the idea that Manderly is messing with the Boltons and that makes more sense if everyone thinks Jon is a legitimized son of Ned. Maybe the Crannogmen are just killing ironborn becuase, well, they're enemies of the Starks.

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This opens up a whole can of worms. If the letter moved North and Robb was already discussing plans of crannog men assaulting Moat Caillin which we see in Dance, then there has probably been contact. Meaning Howland knows, and may be in motion. Implications being that Barbery Dustin was poking around the crypt looking for confirmation about Jon, and they're holding back because they know that Jon is a Targaryen, and not a Son of Ned. So they'll install Rickon in Winterfell, and do what with Jon? Not to mention all the crackpot possibilities for the Hooded Man are more probable.

That's a good reminder about Dustin — the possibility that she had Theon take her into the crypt to verify that Bran and Rickon had been there.

However I'm not sure that Howland would spill the beans about Jon being a Targ at this point. What would it accomplish?

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That's a good reminder about Dustin — the possibility that she had Theon take her into the crypt to verify that Bran and Rickon had been there.

However I'm not sure that Howland would spill the beans about Jon being a Targ at this point. What would it accomplish?

That's true about Bran and Rickon, I completely forgot about that.

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Dont you think GRRM can easily put this line in Jon's POV ?

"They had sent the words months ago, but they have not appeared again."

What I'm saying is maybe Jon knows but it is not mentioned in the books. These tricks always work.

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Dont you think GRRM can easily put this line in Jon's POV ?

"They had sent the words months ago, but they have not appeared again."

What I'm saying is maybe Jon knows but it is not mentioned in the books. These tricks always work.

Ehhhhh I don't see any hint in Jon's POV that he knows. This isn't like Ned's where it's clear there's some compartmentalization going on. Jon plain doesn't know.

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