Hooded Man in Winterfell Part 4

[King Tyrion VIII]

Welcome to Part 4! GRRM has presented us with many situations for us to develop lively theories that are still contested to this day. New possibilities are still arising, with sometimes surprising evidence. One of the most interesting of is the Hooded Man in Winterfell. Who is he? Where did he come from? Who did he arrive with and when? Is he Benjen Stark? Torren Liddle? Robett Glover? Davos? Or someone else?

I'd like to start off by linking to BranVras's amazingly detailed analysis:

http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Kinslayer.html

And http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Absent.html

They're well worth the read.

Links to Parts 1-3:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

The lack of a search function is making things difficult. So let's get this thread started with one goal being compiling a list of candidates and the pros and cons of each.

Candidates:

Benjen Stark

Torren Liddle

Davos

Robett Glover

Theon Durden

Ser Kyle Condon

Also feel free to continue discussion from Part 3.

[King Tyrion VIII]

Great entry here for Ser Kyle Condon:

I do really like Bran Vos's theory. I'd also had the idea that perhaps Theon had actually killed one of his bastard children when he killed the miller's boys, as he'd slept with the miller's wife a number of times, and reflects on this fact a number of times, but Vos really lays out a lot of the other details surrounding these events well. The only problem with equating this to the HM is how would the HM know Theon fathered one of the miller's boys? Using Vos's outline of events, I have a working theory that might fit all the known evidence. First, the sequence of events, which is crucial:

1. No one uses the word Kinslayer to describe Theon prior to the HM. Everyone, including the Washerwomen, call him nothing worse than turncloak.

2. The HM scene happens. He calls Theon Kinslayer.

3. Mors Umber starts blowing warhorns outside the walls shortly after Theon encounters the HM, on the same night.

4. The next time Theon encounters the washerwomen, in the Godswood, they refer to him as Kinslayer, and admit that they're not referring to Bran and Rickon.

5. Theon escapes with JArya.

6. Crowfood finds Theon, appears to be expecting him, and calls him Kinslayer.

There definitely could be an implied connection here between the arrival of the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors Umber. Between the use of the word Kinslayer, the parallel timing of Crowfood's arrival and the HM, the washerwomen's use of the word following these events, and Crowfood's apparent awareness that Theon will be escaping when he does, there are more than a few hints that there is some kind of connection here.

I think I've seen in mentioned, but there's another decent candidate for the HM (as good as any other, at least): Ser Kyle Condon.

Ser Kyle was the right hand of Lord Medger Cerwyn, essentially his version of Rodrick Cassel (it is interesting to note that a Northern house keeps a knight in it's service here, but that's a different discussion, its possible he simply received a knighthood for valor in battle, similar to Ser Jorah). He fought with Lord Cerwyn under the command of Roose Bolton at the Battle of the Green Fork, where Lord Cerwyn was mortally wounded and captured (he later died at Harrenhal). He remained with Roose's force until the Battle of the Ruby Ford, where he was given the command of the Northern forces that Roose left behind to prevent the Mountain from crossing (and also to spare them from the RW). It's not specified what happens to Ser Kyle after this, but it's possible he rejoins Roose's forces following the Red Wedding to march on Moat Cailin and returns to the North.

Meanwhile, Lord Cerwyn's son and heir, Cley Cerwyn, had brought 300 men to Winterfell to try and remove Theon during his occupation. Cley is killed and his body presented to Theon by Ramsay just before he sacks the castle and takes Theon prisoner.

This leaves Jonella Cerwyn, daughter of Medger and sister to Cley, to inherit Castle Cerwyn, as there are no living male heirs. She is present at Barrow Hall and signs Roose's letter calling all the Northern Lords to witness the wedding of Ramsay and Arya. However, it does not appear she is present at Winterfell for the wedding, which is curious. She is never mentioned as being in attendance, and Theon does not seem to think any highborn Cerwyns are present, just some "cousins".

Castle Cerwyn is a close neighbor of Winterfell, roughly half a day's ride due south, and Lord Cerwyn and his Son were noted to have visited often. Thus of all the Northern nobility who might have attended the wedding, Jonella Cerwyn would have been among the most likely to recognize Arya as an imposter. It does appear Cerwyn men are present, and their maester (Rhodry) is noted to be serving Roose (among other maesters).

Additionally, as far as anyone in the story knows, no one in the North is aware that it was Ramsay who sacked Winterfell (and killed Cley Cerwyn). However, as we learn in ADwD, someone does know--Wyman Manderly. Wyman is also present at Barrowtown, and with the knowledge that Ramsay was responsible for the death (and betrayal) of Jonella's brother Cley. Given this, Lord Wyman had ample opportunity to enlist Lady Jonella to his subversion.

Whether it was Jonella's choice not to attend the Winterfell Wedding or Roose's, she is, like Ser Kyle, probably regarded as of little consequence to the Bolton cause. House Cerwyn took substantial losses in virtually every costly conflict the North took part in--The Green Fork, Duskendale, The Sack of Winterfell, and the Red Wedding (the only conflict they were spared of was the Ruby Ford, but many of their men accompanied Roose to the Red Wedding anyway, save Ser Kyle and a few others). They have little left to contribute in the way of manpower. However, Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell still makes it an ideal staging ground for clandestine operations.

It's also possible that Lord Wyman is aware of the divide between the Umber brothers, and possibly even still in contact with Mors. Recall that at the Harvest Feast, the Umbers had been ordered to provide lumber to Wyman to build ships with, which we know he has been hard at work at. If Manderly was aware that Crowfood was marching to Winterfell ahead of Stannis, one of the tasks he may have set Lady Jonella towards could have been intercepting Crowfood before he arrived and planning a liberation mission for Arya and Theon (the only man alive who can be used as a credible witness to Bran and Rickon's survival). Crowfood still would have had to take Theon and Arya to Stannis, as he's directly allied with Stannis. This also likely wouldn't be a cause for gripe for Wyman or Lady Cerwyn, as Castle Cerwyn is likely lightly guarded, and if brought there Theon and Arya could likely be traced, recaptured, and reveal the Cerwyn involvement. The plan would then be to wait for Lord Wyman to make contact and proceed to have Theon reveal the truth, from the Wyman/Cerwyn perpsective.

Could Crowfood also have made contact with Mance prior to the wedding as well? This would have been before he made contact with the Maderly/Cerwyn alliance, and thus prior to planning a liberation of Theon as well as Arya (Mance likely had no direct prior interest in Theon, aside from perhaps for any information he might have). It's never explained how Mance learns that the wedding location changes to Winterfell. He departs Castle Black with a stated destination of Long Lake before Roose even decides to go to Winterfell. Long Lake is part of Umber territory. Did Mance get tipped off by Crowfood? Was Crowfood aware that Mance was already at Winterfell when he was intercepted by Ser Kyle? He then could have advised Ser Kyle to coordinate with Mance and free Theon as well.

Of course, this still leaves out Robett Glover, who in this scenario could very well be working with Lady Jonella out of Castle Cerwyn, as he is obviously not present at Winterfell but was seen with Wyman Manderly before he departed White Harbor. However, the chief objection to the HM being Robett Glover is that he would be easily recognized, both by Theon and the Northern Nobility, and his sudden presence would likely raise suspicion if he were noticed at Winterfell. This wouldn't be so problematic if he'd shown up at Barrowtown or for the wedding, but showing up so suddenly so long after would be strange. Ser Kyle would not have been recognized by Theon, but he would recognize Theon, and have reason to be very angry with him personally, as he had greater stake in the events that transpired leading up to the Sack. His presence also likely wouldn't raise suspicion at Winterfell, as there are Cerwyn men present, even if Lady Jonella is not.

Additionally, under the theory that one or both of the miller's children are actually Theon's, and that this is what the use of "Kinslayer" is referring to, I can't think of any other candidates who would be more likely aware of this than someone like Ser Kyle. He's spent most of his life in service to Castle Cerwyn, so he's a local, but he isn't nearly as highborn as the Lords (think about Rodrick Cassel, who held a more powerful position as the right hand of the Warden of the North rather than just a Lord in the north). It's likely he's more familiar with the common local gossip, which could easily include the possibility that Theon is the father of one or both of the children he would later kill, and he would know it was these children that were killed, rather than Bran and Rickon, as he's been let on the information shared by Lord Wyman.

The biggest problem with this theory is the Mance/Crowfood connection, as Crowfood demanded Mance's skull as a term of his alliance with Stannis. Of coruse, it's very unlikely Crowfood knows what Mance looks like. If Mance made contact with Crowfood, he could have easily been posing as someone else, probably Abel, though admitting he was an agent sent by Stannis. He could have even brought Crowfood Rattleshirt's skull in place of his own!

So to summarize the theory:

1. Ser Kyle Condon rejoins Roose Bolton following the Red Wedding and marches with him to Barrowtown, where he joins his mistress, Lady Jonella Cerwyn.

2. Mance Rayder, posing as Abel the Bard, delivers a false skull to Crowfood on his way to Long Lake, learns the wedding location has been changed to Winterfell, and goes ahead to infiltrate with the intent of rescuing Arya.

3. At Barrowtown, Wyman Manderly informs Lady Jonella of the true events of the Sack of Winterfell, Ramsay's part in her brother's death, and the survival of the Stark boys. Ser Kyle, who knew the Miller, realizes that Theon murdered his own son or sons.

4. Lady Jonella and Ser Kyle return to Castle Cerwyn while Wyman Manderly proceeds to Winterfell with Roose and his allies.

5. The Washerwomen periodically attempt to subtley interrogate Theon, to find out if he can be of any use.

6. Ser Kyle intercepts Crowfood before he reaches Winterfell and informs him of the need to rescue Theon. He also informs Crowfood of the survival of the Stark boys, and that Theon murdered his own kin instead of the Starks. Crowfood informs Ser Kyle that upon entering Winterfell he can enlist the assistance of Abel the Bard, who is already inside attempting to rescue Arya.

7. Ser Kyle enters Winterfell just prior to Crowfood's arrival, perhaps freely, as an envoy of Lady Cerwyn, who Roose either believes to be either an ally or inconsequential. Ser Hyle encounters Theon and calls him a Kinslayer, knowing he was the father of at least one of the Miller's boys.

8. Crowfood Umber arrives and sounds warhorns outside Winterfell's walls.

9. Ser Kyle makes contact with Abel and the Washerwomen to coordinate their escape attempts. He gives them the same information he gave Crowfood about the boys Theon killed.

9. The Washerwomen accost Theon in the Godswood, call him a Kinslayer, and bring him to Abel to let him in on the plan.

10. Theon and Arya escape as the Manderly and Frey forces are preparing to engage Crowfood (who they believe to be Stannis) outside the Walls of Winterfell.

11. Crowfood finds Theon, as planned, outside the walls of Winterfell. He calls Theon a Kinslayer, and arranges to have he and Arya brought to Stannis for protection.

Thus, I nominate Ser Kyle Condon as a candidate for the HM. It takes a lot of effort to get there, but it wraps up nicely, seeming to fit every piece of evidence we've been given, and doesn't leave any loose ends I'm aware of, which is more than I can say for most of the other possibilities.

[FittleLinger]

Ah, come on. Benjen, Davos, Kyle "The-noone-has-ever-heard-of-him" Condon, and not Harwin?

I kid, mostly, but yes, search is off, and Harwin is one of the incredibly strong candidates (strongest hands off IMO). I have made posts in this and other threads, will contribute tomorrow regarding Harwin.

[King Tyrion VIII]

Thanks Fittle. I'm very interested in the case for Harwin :)

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

I agree that Harwin is a plausible candidate, I'd be even happier with the idea if it means Ned's bones made it back to winterfell. :eek: I still think the most sensible candidate is Robett Glover, Mainly because his story for being there would be the simplest. He came with Manderly, to work against the Bolton's and Frey's.

Benjen would require some sort of outlandish story of how he got back and why he kept it a secret.

Theon Durdin, although possible i suppose, still seems a stretch to me. I don't think davos would cut off a kids junk and shove it in his mouth (i mean he could've changed since skagos, but where is rickon and shaggy then).

Personally, i find it hard to believe that Glover would not of head to winterfell with manderly with sole intention of being a shit disturber :cool4:

[FittleLinger]

Harwin:

The "how are you still alive" might not be a genuine surprise, but rather "Of all good people that died and all the

horrible things you have done, you are one to make it? Is there no justice in this world?". So the HM might know he was

alive from before. It can go either way.

The recognition thing - it's not necessarily someone who has seen him after the transformation. It could also be someone

who has spent a lot of time with him in their youths. It will combine well with someone who has a precedent of recognizing

someone else that few people recognized and also had some kind of a transformation (that would be real Arya, of course,

the transformation is not as major as Theon's). Also the man I'm speaking about has a history of working with people that

had major transformations (Beric and Stoneheart). I'm talking about Harwin from the Brotherhood.

Finally, a point against it being someone random who we have not seen is - why didn't Martin give us any description

(broad, thin, short, tall, roundfaced, etc.) if we cannot match this description to anyone anyway? Or give us something

that would give away he is a random soldier should that be the case (like a sigil, armor, anything)? I think it's

deliberate.

Harwin knows Theon was treated as kin. Harwin is even one of the party that encountered the direwolves in the very

beginning. One would conclude he was very close to the affairs. One correction though - he was not at WF when Theon sacked

it. He travelled south with Ned, and joined the BWB when he was sent with Beric to arrest Gregor. But Stoneheart knows

that Bran and Rickon are dead, and so does Harwin, unless informed otherwise.

Why did Harwin go there:

Basically, to check/rescue Arya (he might know she is a fake to begin with, or not), and to kill some Freys. The questions

about whether Mance and if he is connected with a Northern conspiracy are vaguer and merely speculating, but what we know

is:

He knows Arya, he knows the North, he knows Winterfell.

The only unaccounted for murder is the only one that's a Frey per se, Little Walder's. Harwin might or might not be the

killer, but it fits.

Harwin was the son of the horsemaster at WF. We have a case of sabotage of the stables. Everything is made to look like a

coincidence. And yet, in the stables chaos, we find Yellow dick, with his dick stuffed in his mouth. One would think that

these are two separate cases, whether the culprits are working together or not.

A very curious thing is that we have a precedent - Tom O'sevens has been planted at Riverrun. What we have there is Cat's

kin and Freys. At WF - Cat's kin and Freys. These are her two homes - it would make sense to send someone at WF, too,

especially with an Arya wedding going on at the meantime.

So to summarize:

He is of the North. He was son of the horsemaster, so was probably an excellent rider. There was an incident with the

stables at WF (might or might not be related).

Tom O'Sevens is at RR, it would only make sense for Stoneheart to send someone at WF, too. Especially to confirm about

"Arya". Harwin knows Arya. Harwin knows Winterfell. Cat knows WF, too.

Harwin knows Theon. Harwin knows Theon was treated as kin. Harwin does not know Bran and Rickon are alive (unless he has

got in touch with someone knowing already). Harwin calls him kinslayer. Anyone would call him turncloak, but kinslayer - I

think that person was both close to the Starks and knows Theon was treated as kin. Harwin fits here. "False is all you

ever were" - this suggests that maybe he has known him for a long time.

The only murder that's been unaccounted for is Little Walder's. The only one that's Frey per se. The HM might or might not

be the killer, but if it's Harwin, it fits in the Frey killing BWB policy.

PS: These are three posts, crudely merged together. There could be some contextual inconsistencies (eg. if I've been answering a specific and/or unrelated question) and some of the things might be repeated, as I didn't really modify those posts well enough before combining them .

[redriver]

I've always promoted the Liddle as the HM(and I still think he's a very viable candidate).But Robett Glover makes sense too.

I'm a proponent of the theory that Mance didn't arrive at Winterfell with the six he left Castle Black with.That was six,"young and pretty" whom Mance supplied the names for.But he arrives with a party of spearwives which includes "his old mother".

I'm sorry,but I think that is very significant indeed.I cannot see how you can fathom what is going on in Winterfell without considering this.This is someone who is the mother of a middle aged man.I don't see how she can be considered "young and pretty".

It's a fairly established theory now that the idea of Manderly turning up at WF with musicians and no singers is unlikely in the extreme,and that Mance and Manderly met before WF and conspired.I think Mance undertook the role of replacing Manderly's singers and,with his spearwives the task of rescuing "Arya".

But at this point a spearwife was replaced by a man.The role of this man was to sow discord between the northern lords using murder and sabotage.This older spearwife is called Myrtle and she plays a low key role within the group,that of a real washerwoman whilst the rest play harlots.

Here is Theon's first encounter,which takes place after the HM meeting.

Theon spun,terrified that Ramsay had found him,but it was just the washerwomen,Holly,Rowan and one who's name he did not know."The ghosts," he blurted.[...]"What do you want?"he asked.

"You, said the third washerwoman,an older woman,deep voiced,with grey streaks in her hair.

Given that the drumming and horn blowing starts that night,we can take it that Myrtle has been in Winterfell for around 7 weeks,and Theon doesn't recognize her.Low key indeed.

To me,Bran Vas' excellent work in linking the kinsalyer epithet to the Manderly camp seems spot on and that information can have been shared in the Mance/Manderly pre-Wintefell meeting regardless of who is playing Myrtle,-Liddle or Glover.

Sorry for shouting.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

Is it possible that the beauty standards of the wildlings are a bit lax? :lol: Or perhaps they ran out of young pretty ones?

Or maybe she has a nice personality :cool4:

[redriver]

Is it possible that the beauty standards of the wildlings are a bit lax? :lol: Or perhaps they ran out of young pretty ones?

I've heard this one before!!Besides, Mance gave the names of the spearwives he wanted and Dolorous Ed provided them from Mole Town.And I think Mance can tell "young and pretty" from "older woman,deep voiced with grey streaks in her hair."

Not picking on you,but the variety of reasons presented to dismiss this continues to amaze me.The "sneaking a man in pretending to be a woman would severely compromise the mission" argument should be along soon.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

I jest, I jest! :P It's possible to sneak one in, as theon says (iirc), nobody pays attention to the servants. Is their anything mentioned about "myrtle" during the escape, i dont have my books with me but i recall some, if not all of the spearwives get killed and skinned, per the pink letter. Some deaths are on screen, but not all if i remember.

[redriver]

I jest, I jest! :P It's possible to sneak one in, as theon says (iirc), nobody pays attention to the servants. Is their anything mentioned about "myrtle" during the escape, i dont have my books with me but i recall some, if not all of the spearwives get killed and skinned, per the pink letter. Some deaths are on screen, but not all if i remember.

The HM approaches Theon with his cloak "flapping in the wind".The last sight we have of Myrtle is when she returns to the Great Hall,-

Frenya,Holly,go with them," Rowan said."We will be along with Abel.Do not wait for us."And with that,she whirled and plunged into the snow,toward the Great Hall.Willow and Myrtle hurried after her,cloaks snapping in the wind."

[Har!]

I do really like Bran Vos's theory. I'd also had the idea that perhaps Theon had actually killed one of his bastard children when he killed the miller's boys, as he'd slept with the miller's wife a number of times, and reflects on this fact a number of times, but Vos really lays out a lot of the other details surrounding these events well. The only problem with equating this to the HM is how would the HM know Theon fathered one of the miller's boys? Using Vos's outline of events, I have a working theory that might fit all the known evidence. First, the sequence of events, which is crucial:

1. No one uses the word Kinslayer to describe Theon prior to the HM. Everyone, including the Washerwomen, call him nothing worse than turncloak.

2. The HM scene happens. He calls Theon Kinslayer.

3. Mors Umber starts blowing warhorns outside the walls shortly after Theon encounters the HM, on the same night.

4. The next time Theon encounters the washerwomen, in the Godswood, they refer to him as Kinslayer, and admit that they're not referring to Bran and Rickon.

5. Theon escapes with JArya.

6. Crowfood finds Theon, appears to be expecting him, and calls him Kinslayer.

There definitely could be an implied connection here between the arrival of the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors Umber. Between the use of the word Kinslayer, the parallel timing of Crowfood's arrival and the HM, the washerwomen's use of the word following these events, and Crowfood's apparent awareness that Theon will be escaping when he does, there are more than a few hints that there is some kind of connection here.

I think I've seen in mentioned, but there's another decent candidate for the HM (as good as any other, at least): Ser Kyle Condon.

Ser Kyle was the right hand of Lord Medger Cerwyn, essentially his version of Rodrick Cassel (it is interesting to note that a Northern house keeps a knight in it's service here, but that's a different discussion, its possible he simply received a knighthood for valor in battle, similar to Ser Jorah). He fought with Lord Cerwyn under the command of Roose Bolton at the Battle of the Green Fork, where Lord Cerwyn was mortally wounded and captured (he later died at Harrenhal). He remained with Roose's force until the Battle of the Ruby Ford, where he was given the command of the Northern forces that Roose left behind to prevent the Mountain from crossing (and also to spare them from the RW). It's not specified what happens to Ser Kyle after this, but it's possible he rejoins Roose's forces following the Red Wedding to march on Moat Cailin and returns to the North.

Meanwhile, Lord Cerwyn's son and heir, Cley Cerwyn, had brought 300 men to Winterfell to try and remove Theon during his occupation. Cley is killed and his body presented to Theon by Ramsay just before he sacks the castle and takes Theon prisoner.

This leaves Jonella Cerwyn, daughter of Medger and sister to Cley, to inherit Castle Cerwyn, as there are no living male heirs. She is present at Barrow Hall and signs Roose's letter calling all the Northern Lords to witness the wedding of Ramsay and Arya. However, it does not appear she is present at Winterfell for the wedding, which is curious. She is never mentioned as being in attendance, and Theon does not seem to think any highborn Cerwyns are present, just some "cousins".

Castle Cerwyn is a close neighbor of Winterfell, roughly half a day's ride due south, and Lord Cerwyn and his Son were noted to have visited often. Thus of all the Northern nobility who might have attended the wedding, Jonella Cerwyn would have been among the most likely to recognize Arya as an imposter. It does appear Cerwyn men are present, and their maester (Rhodry) is noted to be serving Roose (among other maesters).

Additionally, as far as anyone in the story knows, no one in the North is aware that it was Ramsay who sacked Winterfell (and killed Cley Cerwyn). However, as we learn in ADwD, someone does know--Wyman Manderly. Wyman is also present at Barrowtown, and with the knowledge that Ramsay was responsible for the death (and betrayal) of Jonella's brother Cley. Given this, Lord Wyman had ample opportunity to enlist Lady Jonella to his subversion.

Whether it was Jonella's choice not to attend the Winterfell Wedding or Roose's, she is, like Ser Kyle, probably regarded as of little consequence to the Bolton cause. House Cerwyn took substantial losses in virtually every costly conflict the North took part in--The Green Fork, Duskendale, The Sack of Winterfell, and the Red Wedding (the only conflict they were spared of was the Ruby Ford, but many of their men accompanied Roose to the Red Wedding anyway, save Ser Kyle and a few others). They have little left to contribute in the way of manpower. However, Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell still makes it an ideal staging ground for clandestine operations.

It's also possible that Lord Wyman is aware of the divide between the Umber brothers, and possibly even still in contact with Mors. Recall that at the Harvest Feast, the Umbers had been ordered to provide lumber to Wyman to build ships with, which we know he has been hard at work at. If Manderly was aware that Crowfood was marching to Winterfell ahead of Stannis, one of the tasks he may have set Lady Jonella towards could have been intercepting Crowfood before he arrived and planning a liberation mission for Arya and Theon (the only man alive who can be used as a credible witness to Bran and Rickon's survival). Crowfood still would have had to take Theon and Arya to Stannis, as he's directly allied with Stannis. This also likely wouldn't be a cause for gripe for Wyman or Lady Cerwyn, as Castle Cerwyn is likely lightly guarded, and if brought there Theon and Arya could likely be traced, recaptured, and reveal the Cerwyn involvement. The plan would then be to wait for Lord Wyman to make contact and proceed to have Theon reveal the truth, from the Wyman/Cerwyn perpsective.

Could Crowfood also have made contact with Mance prior to the wedding as well? This would have been before he made contact with the Maderly/Cerwyn alliance, and thus prior to planning a liberation of Theon as well as Arya (Mance likely had no direct prior interest in Theon, aside from perhaps for any information he might have). It's never explained how Mance learns that the wedding location changes to Winterfell. He departs Castle Black with a stated destination of Long Lake before Roose even decides to go to Winterfell. Long Lake is part of Umber territory. Did Mance get tipped off by Crowfood? Was Crowfood aware that Mance was already at Winterfell when he was intercepted by Ser Kyle? He then could have advised Ser Kyle to coordinate with Mance and free Theon as well.

Of course, this still leaves out Robett Glover, who in this scenario could very well be working with Lady Jonella out of Castle Cerwyn, as he is obviously not present at Winterfell but was seen with Wyman Manderly before he departed White Harbor. However, the chief objection to the HM being Robett Glover is that he would be easily recognized, both by Theon and the Northern Nobility, and his sudden presence would likely raise suspicion if he were noticed at Winterfell. This wouldn't be so problematic if he'd shown up at Barrowtown or for the wedding, but showing up so suddenly so long after would be strange. Ser Kyle would not have been recognized by Theon, but he would recognize Theon, and have reason to be very angry with him personally, as he had greater stake in the events that transpired leading up to the Sack. His presence also likely wouldn't raise suspicion at Winterfell, as there are Cerwyn men present, even if Lady Jonella is not.

Additionally, under the theory that one or both of the miller's children are actually Theon's, and that this is what the use of "Kinslayer" is referring to, I can't think of any other candidates who would be more likely aware of this than someone like Ser Kyle. He's spent most of his life in service to Castle Cerwyn, so he's a local, but he isn't nearly as highborn as the Lords (think about Rodrick Cassel, who held a more powerful position as the right hand of the Warden of the North rather than just a Lord in the north). It's likely he's more familiar with the common local gossip, which could easily include the possibility that Theon is the father of one or both of the children he would later kill, and he would know it was these children that were killed, rather than Bran and Rickon, as he's been let on the information shared by Lord Wyman.

The biggest problem with this theory is the Mance/Crowfood connection, as Crowfood demanded Mance's skull as a term of his alliance with Stannis. Of coruse, it's very unlikely Crowfood knows what Mance looks like. If Mance made contact with Crowfood, he could have easily been posing as someone else, probably Abel, though admitting he was an agent sent by Stannis. He could have even brought Crowfood Rattleshirt's skull in place of his own!

So to summarize the theory:

1. Ser Kyle Condon rejoins Roose Bolton following the Red Wedding and marches with him to Barrowtown, where he joins his mistress, Lady Jonella Cerwyn.

2. Mance Rayder, posing as Abel the Bard, delivers a false skull to Crowfood on his way to Long Lake, learns the wedding location has been changed to Winterfell, and goes ahead to infiltrate with the intent of rescuing Arya.

3. At Barrowtown, Wyman Manderly informs Lady Jonella of the true events of the Sack of Winterfell, Ramsay's part in her brother's death, and the survival of the Stark boys. Ser Kyle, who knew the Miller, realizes that Theon murdered his own son or sons.

4. Lady Jonella and Ser Kyle return to Castle Cerwyn while Wyman Manderly proceeds to Winterfell with Roose and his allies.

5. The Washerwomen periodically attempt to subtley interrogate Theon, to find out if he can be of any use.

6. Ser Kyle intercepts Crowfood before he reaches Winterfell and informs him of the need to rescue Theon. He also informs Crowfood of the survival of the Stark boys, and that Theon murdered his own kin instead of the Starks. Crowfood informs Ser Kyle that upon entering Winterfell he can enlist the assistance of Abel the Bard, who is already inside attempting to rescue Arya.

7. Ser Kyle enters Winterfell just prior to Crowfood's arrival, perhaps freely, as an envoy of Lady Cerwyn, who Roose either believes to be either an ally or inconsequential. Ser Hyle encounters Theon and calls him a Kinslayer, knowing he was the father of at least one of the Miller's boys.

8. Crowfood Umber arrives and sounds warhorns outside Winterfell's walls.

9. Ser Kyle makes contact with Abel and the Washerwomen to coordinate their escape attempts. He gives them the same information he gave Crowfood about the boys Theon killed.

9. The Washerwomen accost Theon in the Godswood, call him a Kinslayer, and bring him to Abel to let him in on the plan.

10. Theon and Arya escape as the Manderly and Frey forces are preparing to engage Crowfood (who they believe to be Stannis) outside the Walls of Winterfell.

11. Crowfood finds Theon, as planned, outside the walls of Winterfell. He calls Theon a Kinslayer, and arranges to have he and Arya brought to Stannis for protection.

Thus, I nominate Ser Kyle Condon as a candidate for the HM. It takes a lot of effort to get there, but it wraps up nicely, seeming to fit every piece of evidence we've been given, and doesn't leave any loose ends I'm aware of, which is more than I can say for most of the other possibilities.

Great post Meddler!

In addition, your analysis matches up quite well with speculation I had about the HM potentially being an anonymous captain of a northern family's household guard... except you go one better and put an actual name to the captain. Very detailed and plausible. My hat's off to you!

The only 'flaw' I see is the same problem my previous speculation had: the question of whether Ser Condon is a bit too anonymous? In other words, would GRRM set us this puzzle with the answer being so obscure to as to render it a virtual deux ex machina?

(There is also the issue of recognizing Theon, but it is a problem common to virtually all theories and as you note Ser Condon was only half a day's ride away... I feel fairly sure that all the locals would be keen to catch a glimpse (or more) of the captured heir of Seastone Chair.)

I will have to go re-read, thank you for a very plausible, well thought out and intriguing theory. I like that you specifically put weight on the fact that the kinslayer epithet links the HM to the washerwomen and to Mors Umber. I agree with your assessment that this is a key clue.

Overall, you cover all the bases fairly well. Job well done!

[chimere]

The Ser Kyle Condon theory is really well thought out but I think it depends on way too much in order for it to be true. I reallllly want the hooded man to be Harwin, but I feel that if it was wouldn't he have killed Theon? UnCat believes that Theon killed Rickon and Bran, and we know how much she wants vengence. But then again Theon being alive caught the hooded man off guard so if it was Harwin he could have just made a mental note that Theon is alive and went off to kill Little Walder.

[Lion of Judah]

Anyone find the cook Gage? Until they do he is my guess for the HM.

[l3ol3o]

Harwin:

*snip*

I like this theory a lot. Very well thought out and it makes a bunch of sense.

I really want the HM to be Benjen but Harwin makes more sense. This is actually one of the biggest reveals I'm looking forward to.

[King Tyrion VIII]

I like this theory a lot. Very well thought out and it makes a bunch of sense.

I really want the HM to be Benjen but Harwin makes more sense. This is actually one of the biggest reveals I'm looking forward to.

For me the top right now are HM, Benjen's reappearance, which could be the same thing. If it's ever revealed that Bran can be heard through the trees and can communicate into the past. My pet theory on that includes the idea that his influence ability is infinitely small since he has to rely on:

1. Someone walking close enough to the tree to hear him

2. Their willingness to realize the experience is real

3. Their willingness to listen and then actually do what Bran asks

4. Their ability to perform the task

[Meddler]

Great post Meddler!

In addition, your analysis matches up quite well with speculation I had about the HM potentially being an anonymous captain of a northern family's household guard... except you go one better and put an actual name to the captain. Very detailed and plausible. My hat's off to you!

The only 'flaw' I see is the same problem my previous speculation had: the question of whether Ser Condon is a bit too anonymous? In other words, would GRRM set us this puzzle with the answer being so obscure to as to render it a virtual deux ex machina?

(There is also the issue of recognizing Theon, but it is a problem common to virtually all theories and as you note Ser Condon was only half a day's ride away... I feel fairly sure that all the locals would be keen to catch a glimpse (or more) of the captured heir of Seastone Chair.)

I will have to go re-read, thank you for a very plausible, well thought out and intriguing theory. I like that you specifically put weight on the fact that the kinslayer epithet links the HM to the washerwomen and to Mors Umber. I agree with your assessment that this is a key clue.

Overall, you cover all the bases fairly well. Job well done!

Thanks! I do agree that the deus ex machina argument is the best one against this kind of candidate. The best retort I can come up with is that we've had examples of fairly anonymous characters later playing significant roles, such as Beric Dondarrion. However, in most if not all of these cases, there was never an identity mystery.

The biggest problem we have in general, and one of the things that makes the HM so interestingly futile, is we don't get a physical description. This is incredibly unusual for Martin with this kind of thing. Why wouldn't he tell us what the HM looks like? It could be that he was obscured by the hood and/or snow, but Martin doesn't indicate this is the case, and the HM was still able to recognize a very disfigured Theon (though he may have known Theon was around and been keeping an eye open for him). I can think of a two reasons Martin might have omitted a physical description.

1. He didn't want us connecting it to someone we've already had a physical description of for some reason. This can't be ruled out, but why present the mystery and avoid this opportunity to create a hint? This would have to indicate that knowing the HM's identity would reveal some answers that he's not ready to give yet. Benjen is a good candidate in this context, but he's also the most likely of all the candidates to be recognized by Theon. Martin probably would have more explicitly stated that his features were obscured if this was the case.

2. It's not relevant, as it's not someone we've had a physical description of yet and not someone we'll have a physical description of prior to knowing the answers. In this case, the most likely resolution is that the mystery will be revealed explicitly in a Theon POV chapter, and we'll get some backstory through his eyes later.

The reason I share your notion of it being a somewhat anonymous Northern captain is that I think there are pretty sizable holes with most of the likely "known" candidates. Here are the issues I can find with the ones listed.

Robett Glover - In a lot of ways, Glover is a good candidate.

-He may have discovered the truth about the Millers boys through an investigation after leaving White Harbor

-He's been shown to be something of an infiltrator in Harrenhal

-he probably knows the truth about Roose's betrayal at Duskendale by now.

-Most of what I outlined with Ser Kyle can also work with Robett.

The biggest problem is that he's too recognizable. It's not impossible to explain why he showed up at Winterfell so long after the wedding, or why he would be roaming around the grounds in the open near the crowded Great Hall, but it is difficult and would require a number of steps, getting back into deus ex machina territory even.

-If he was somehow acting covertly, we have to explain how he got into the castle.

-If he was acting covertly AND involved in the escape, we have to explain why Theon and Arya couldn't use his route into the castle as a way out.

-If he was not acting covertly, and has revealed himself to Roose and the Northern Lords present (we have no indication of this), we have to explain where he's been and how he convinced Roose he can be trusted.

-If he was not involved in the escape, we have to explain the Kinslayer connection between the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors--probably as a coincidence.

-We also have to explain why his priority is subversion of Ramsay's Wedding, as opposed to liberating his home, Deepwood Motte, which until liberated by Stannis was still held by Asha's Ironborn. We know he didn't show up at Deepwood because Stannis did, but it also doesn't make sense that he would simply ignore this issue.

Harwin - I understand the temptation to consider him, but it would be very difficult for him to travel to the North.

-If he was sent alone, it would mean traveling light on provisions from the heart of the Riverlands to Winterfell with no means of communication. The BwB do not use ravens. This is a long journey, it would take weeks if not months, and he would have to find ways to reprovision, possibly find fresh mounts, food, etc. He's an outlaw, and not highborn. How does he pay for all this?

-If he's traveling in a group they could bring more provisions with them, but it would mean taking the heavily trafficked Kingsroad up through the neck and passing through Moat Cailin. Even if they somehow learned that Moat Cailin had been cleared of the Ironborn, they would have no way of knowing that Roose did not leave a garrison behind. We don't even know if Roose might have left a small garrison. Why wouldn't he? He's a cautious tactician, and holding Moat Cailin costs him little and gives him a strategic location in the event of any kind of southron treachery. Then, assuming Harwin's band gets through the Neck, they would then have to leave the Kingsroad, avoid both Barrowtown and White Harbor (which lie directly to the east and west of the Kingsroad once you pass Moat Cailin and are both crawling with Frey and Bolton forces), and travel through land with little forest cover in deteriorating weather conditions. This would be quite a trick for a group of outlaw bandits.

-Then there's also the problem of the Kinslayer connection with the washerwomen and Mors. This would have to be explained as coincidence somehow, as it's very unlikely Harwin would have somehow hooked up with Mance and the washerwomen and Mors.

Benjen - Benjen has the same problem of recognition as Glover, and even worse, he'd likely be recognized by Theon. We'd also have to explain the possible connection or coincidence with the Kinslayer epithet, how he got into the castle, and again, why he was unwilling to share his entrance route with the escapees if he was involved in the escape.

The Liddle -There's actually not a whole lot that jumps out to rule this possibility out, but there's not a whole lot to connect it either. We know less about his movements and possible motives than even someone like Ser Kyle. Is it more plausible just because we've had a more direct interaction with the character? It's also harder to put him in the middle of an organized subversion. This would probably require some kind of prior planning with Crowfood or conspiracy with Whorsebane. And even then, we still can't explain the Kinslayer usage.

Theon Durden - This is an interesting theory in a lot of ways--Bran Vos's theory does highlight Theon's degrading mental state, particularly in reference to the possibility that he fathered one of the miller's boys. It's possibly to draw the connection that a part of Theon recognizes he is a Kinslayer, but he's conciously blocking this information, leading to a fractured personality. But the problem is the evidence is almost entirely about Theon's internal state. There's not much physically going on that would suggest it. And again, why did the washerwomen and Mors call Theon a Kinslayer after he encountered the HM? This would, again, need to be written off as a coincidence.

The way I wound up landing on Ser Kyle was going back to basics. We begin with the safest assumption I can find--that the HM is connected to the washerwomen planning the escape and to Mors Umber, based on the use of the term Kinslayer and Mors' apparent preparations to recover the escapees.

After that, we can move onto motive and opportunity. The person with motive is someone who wants to rescue not just Arya, but Theon as well, and might have reason to want revenge on the engineers of the Red Wedding--House Bolton in particular. Many Stark loyalists might want to rescue Arya, but who would want to rescue Theon? Only someone who knows he can bear witness to Bran and Rickon's survival. Enter Wyman Manderly. Wyman Manderly (and Robett Glover) is the only significant player in the North that is not a member of House Bolton or Frey who knows the story of the boys' survival and Ramsay's involvement in the Sack of Winterfell. We know that the HM is not Manderly for obvious reasons, but we also know that Manderly has been recruiting, so this opens the possibility of the HM being related to a prominent Northern house, as long as there's opportunity for Wyman to recruit them to his cause.

The first notable gathering of Northern nobility after Manderly leaves White Harbor is in Barrowtown. Present are either the Lords or representatives of Houses Umber, Dustin, Ryswell, Hornwood, Tallhart, and Cerwyn.

-House Umber is a possibility, but oddly, Whorsebane seems to be Ramsay's most trusted lieutenant. It's unlikely Manderly would risk approaching him.

-House Dustin and House Ryswell appear to be the closest to Roose. That rules them out.

-House Hornwood has either been claimed by Ramsay or remains under some sort of dispute. Again, no help here.

That leaves House Cerwyn and House Tallhart, both of whom could possibly have extra motive, as Ramsay slew Cley Cerwyn and Leobald Tallhart during the Sack of Winterfell and presented their bodies to Theon (note that this is made explicit, and Wex would likely be aware of it).

However, Torren's Square, the seat of House Tallhart, is still under Ironborn occupation, and Dagmer Cleftjaw has most of the remaining members of House Tallhart (including Brandon, Leobald's heir) captive. Roose can easily keep the Tallhart's loyal by promising to liberate Torren's Square. Even if Manderly can match this offer, it would be risky.

That leaves House Cerwyn. While House Cerwyn has been largely decimated and left without a male heir, it is no longer under significant threat (read: they have nothing left to lose), and the rest of the North seems too distracted to start considering the upcoming question of inheritance. Once it's announced the wedding will take place at Winterfell, Castle Cerwyn's proximity also makes it an ideal location for anyone looking to work against the Bolton/Frey alliance.

So we arrive at House Cerwyn. Now we have to fill in the details--figure out if there's anyone close to Lady Cerwyn who might be able to move freely between Castle Cerwyn and Winterfell for her as an envoy, who might know the truth of the parentage of the miller's boys, who would recognize Theon but not be recognized by him, and who would have a way of joining forces with Mors Umber and Mance and the washwerwomen.

-We know Lord Cerwyn and his son frequently visited Winterfell--he almost certainly would have taken his most trusted captain, Ser Kyle, with him on at least some of these occasions, and he's not the kind of person the brash Theon would have paid any attention to.

-Ser Kyle probably has more connection with the common folk surrounding Winterfell and Castle Cerwyn than the lords do, meaning he could possibly know of rumors that Theon was the father of one or both of the boys he killed.

-Ser Kyle fought under Roose, and was even deliberately spared of the Red Wedding when Roose gave him command of the guard left to hold the Ruby Ford and prevent the Mountain's pursuit.

-Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell provides ample opportunity for contact with Mors Umber on his approach to Winterfell. If Manderly has been in communication with Mors, and Mors with Mance, we can connect the three parties.

So houses Manderly and Cerwyn combine to provide motive and opportunity, and although a relatively obscure character, Ser Kyle could fit all the details together.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

Robett Glover - In a lot of ways, Glover is a good candidate.

-He may have discovered the truth about the Millers boys through an investigation after leaving White Harbor

-He's been shown to be something of an infiltrator in Harrenhal

-he probably knows the truth about Roose's betrayal at Duskendale by now.

-Most of what I outlined with Ser Kyle can also work with Robett.

The biggest problem is that he's too recognizable. It's not impossible to explain why he showed up at Winterfell so long after the wedding, or why he would be roaming around the grounds in the open near the crowded Great Hall, but it is difficult and would require a number of steps, getting back into deus ex machina territory even.

-If he was somehow acting covertly, we have to explain how he got into the castle.

-If he was acting covertly AND involved in the escape, we have to explain why Theon and Arya couldn't use his route into the castle as a way out.

-If he was not acting covertly, and has revealed himself to Roose and the Northern Lords present (we have no indication of this), we have to explain where he's been and how he convinced Roose he can be trusted.

-If he was not involved in the escape, we have to explain the Kinslayer connection between the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors--probably as a coincidence.

-We also have to explain why his priority is subversion of Ramsay's Wedding, as opposed to liberating his home, Deepwood Motte, which until liberated by Stannis was still held by Asha's Ironborn. We know he didn't show up at Deepwood because Stannis did, but it also doesn't make sense that he would simply ignore this issue.

I don't think Glover is as recognizable as everyone thinks. Galbart is the Lord of Deepwood, Robett's his younger brother and as such may not have been as involved with the other lords. If he's riding with manderly's group he could easily be disguised as a free rider and no one would be the wiser, he would just need to avoid some of the lords.

I believe he is acting covertly and has been there since Manderly arrived. As far as everyone else knows he is missing in action after Duskendale. A free rider with a large host in a crowded castle, i can see him being able to keep to himself and out of trouble till he's needed.

For his seeming lack of interest in Deepwood, it could be that he's looking at the big picture. Deepwood is fairly inconsiquential, subverting the Bolton/ Frey alliance is a bigger step towards consolidating the north than liberating a motte and bailey castle on the far side of the North.

Could the "kinslayer" comments be in reference to his actions at Moat Cailin? He betrayed the ironborn there and sent them to their deaths.

And he probably already knows about the miller's boys through wex.

[FittleLinger]

Harwin - I understand the temptation to consider him, but it would be very difficult for him to travel to the North.

-If he was sent alone, it would mean traveling light on provisions from the heart of the Riverlands to Winterfell with no means of communication. The BwB do not use ravens. This is a long journey, it would take weeks if not months, and he would have to find ways to reprovision, possibly find fresh mounts, food, etc. He's an outlaw, and not highborn. How does he pay for all this?

-If he's traveling in a group they could bring more provisions with them, but it would mean taking the heavily trafficked Kingsroad up through the neck and passing through Moat Cailin. Even if they somehow learned that Moat Cailin had been cleared of the Ironborn, they would have no way of knowing that Roose did not leave a garrison behind. We don't even know if Roose might have left a small garrison. Why wouldn't he? He's a cautious tactician, and holding Moat Cailin costs him little and gives him a strategic location in the event of any kind of southron treachery. Then, assuming Harwin's band gets through the Neck, they would then have to leave the Kingsroad, avoid both Barrowtown and White Harbor (which lie directly to the east and west of the Kingsroad once you pass Moat Cailin and are both crawling with Frey and Bolton forces), and travel through land with little forest cover in deteriorating weather conditions. This would be quite a trick for a group of outlaw bandits.

-Then there's also the problem of the Kinslayer connection with the washerwomen and Mors. This would have to be explained as coincidence somehow, as it's very unlikely Harwin would have somehow hooked up with Mance and the washerwomen and Mors.

He could have been aided by the crannogmen to go through the neck. *On a side note, should that be the case, he might know of one or both: Robb's will and Howland's knowledge of Jon's parents*. He was also most probably a great rider, since he was the son of the master of horse in WF. Also, we are not sure that the resources of the BWB are so scarce that they cannot afford that journey.

[Meddler]

I don't think Glover is as recognizable as everyone thinks. Galbart is the Lord of Deepwood, Robett's his younger brother and as such may not have been as involved with the other lords. If he's riding with manderly's group he could easily be disguised as a free rider and no one would be the wiser, he would just need to avoid some of the lords.

I believe he is acting covertly and has been there since Manderly arrived. As far as everyone else knows he is missing in action after Duskendale. A free rider with a large host in a crowded castle, i can see him being able to keep to himself and out of trouble till he's needed.

For his seeming lack of interest in Deepwood, it could be that he's looking at the big picture. Deepwood is fairly inconsiquential, subverting the Bolton/ Frey alliance is a bigger step towards consolidating the north than liberating a motte and bailey castle on the far side of the North.

Could the "kinslayer" comments be in reference to his actions at Moat Cailin? He betrayed the ironborn there and sent them to their deaths.

And he probably already knows about the miller's boys through wex.

He may have been a younger brother, but he's still pretty recognizable, often shown being more boistrous and confident than Galbart, and treated as more or less his equal during his time serving Robb's campaign despite his lower station. He was one of Robb's chief lieutenants, and frequently mentioned as a candidate for command from the very beginning, even competing directly with Roose. He then traveled with Roose's men when Robb split his forces (while Galbart remained with Robb). Roose would certainly know him, as would Aenys Frey, along with many of the men who may had been with Robb prior to crossing with the Twins and virtually all of the men who were under Roose's command after Robb split his forces (we can infer from Roose's actions that Robett and Aenys were his chief lieutenants). I don't think it's possible he's been present and moving about the grounds since Manderly arrived. I suppose it's possible some of the Northerners who did not take part in the War of the Five Kings, such as Barbery Dustin, might not recognize him, but more would than wouldn't, particularly among the common soldiers. He would have to be hiding in the crypts or something, but there's no indication anyone has entered the crypts when Theon brings Lady Dustin down there. In fact they have quite a bit of trouble with the door, indicating it has not been opened in some time--probably since Bran and co. left.

And if he's acting covertly, is he part of the escape plan? If so, how did he get into the castle? Again, even if we grant that he wouldn't be recognized by any random Northman, enough people would know him that traveling in the open would be very risky. If he found a secret way in, why couldn't Theon and Arya use this route for an exit? If he wasn't part of the escape plan, why did the washerwomen refer to Theon as a Kinslayer only after his encounter with Robett? Why did Mors Umber, who seemed to expect Theon and Asha's escape, do the same?

I thought about the possibility that the Kinslayer epithet might have been related to Moat Cailin, but Theon didn't seem to have any kin there, nor did he intentionally betray or directly harm anyone. It would be an interesting twist if this was somehow and Ironborn calling Theon a Turncloak and Kinslayer at this stage though.

He could have been aided by the crannogmen to go through the neck. *On a side note, should that be the case, he might know of one or both: Robb's will and Howland's knowledge of Jon's parents*. He was also most probably a great rider, since he was the son of the master of horse in WF. Also, we are not sure that the resources of the BWB are so scarce that they cannot afford that journey.

I suppose it's not impossible, but why would the illusive and mistrusting crannogmen trust some random rider claiming to be a former member of the Stark household? And I suppose it's not impossible that they could afford to send a single person or small group on such a mission, but why wouldn't they be spending that money on better equipping their main force? Remember, this is a mission that could take a year or more in total, with no way of knowing it's even possible to reach the North (even if the Crannogmen would help, how would they know this? Harwin may have never even met a Crannogman), no help from the nobility, and no possibility of communication of success or failure. If the goal is simply to off some Freys, they can do that much more easily by staying local. If they're trying to rescue Arya, why also rescue Theon? Do they know Theon can bear witness to the boys' survival somehow? Even then, what was the plan after Arya was rescued? Are they really expected to then steal a horse and travel all the way back down through The Neck and into the Riverlands after stealing Ramsay's bride? Either way, why allow Stannis to get his hands on Theon and Arya? He'd have the entire BwB killed if he had his way.