Hooded Man in Winterfell Part 4

[Meddler]

He may not be distinctive walking the streets of Flea Bottom but he's very distinctive in soldier-filled Winterfell. From the wiki:

How many people do you think there are fitting this description in Winterfell at the time? And even if the answer is more than one somehow, how many of those tend to hobble around the castle at all hours, in the snow?

Assuming the HM has communicated with someone in Winterfell, it would not take much for enough information to be conveyed that the HM would be able to identify Theon pretty easily.

There are actually probably quite a few old, white haired men who have seen better days wandering around Winterfell. Men fitting this description probably make up a significant portion of the population, in fact.

Whoresbane Umber (who does not share the immense size with his kin), for one, is described as "gaunt" and "cadaverous." He is probably about the age Theon is described to look and has white hair.

Then there's all the men he brought with him. Whoresbane took all the old men from Last Hearth, while Crowfood has the green boys. So virtually any of the Umber men could fit that description, and there are quite a few.

Lord Ryswell is probably quite old, considering he has at least five adult children, though we don't get a description of him.

Lord Ondrew Locke is simply described as an old man. No physical description is given.

And remember, most of the men of fighting age went with Robb Stark, so many houses who brought in reserves likely had to bring old men and green boys, and we get far more indication that the men present are older than younger in the text, which jives with the notion that in the north, when winter comes, the young children are to be preserved at all cost, while the old men go out to die.

These are just examples, but the point is without close inspection, nothing about Theon makes him look like any more than a gimpy old man, and there are lots of old men floating around, many of whom are likely gimpy.

[ebevan91]

Something in this thread just got me thinking. If Stannis finds out that Theon didn't kill Bran and Rickon nor did he sack Winterfell, would that mean Theon could be kept alive even as a prisoner? I mean he still took Winterfell, so Stannis will still view him as a traitor but he would no longer have to kill Theon, to prevent the northern lords from abandoning him.

Theon still killed 2 boys and knowing Stannis, he'd still probably have Theon executed.

[bemused]

Further to the Liddle , I'll just add add again...

It seems to me that the only thing that would account for the Liddle's odd behavior to Bran is that he has some inside info that Bran must go North , either from BR/CoTF directly, or from a returning Benjen. Only they could know of any reason to allow a young boy ( who had served as the Stark in WF before the sack ) to go into danger ... Since the Liddle knows of Mormont's ranging and that birds have come back without messages , he probably knows Jon is with Mormont as well . So why would he let Bran proceed to the wall without much hope of refuge ? He knows the NW takes no part ... considering his Stark loyalty , he must have a good reason.. We know BR has been able to see what's going on , but not communicate well. He can influence dreams , but can the dreamer interpret them properly ? This makes me think the info comes through Benjen. Who else would the Liddle believe or trust ?

Moving on to Mance , I can't really see him as someone who would be directing the action . His plan is simply being absorbed into the Northern Lords' pre-existing plan ( and I think the same is true for Stannis )... Nor can I see him having direct communication with Manderly . He must only be familiar as Abel south of the wall , and may not ever have been as far south as White Harbour. He's only a "fair" musician with a pleasant , but not remarkable voice. Even if he had gone that far south , it's unlikely he would have been able to gain access to the Lord of WH , who has a roster of ( one assumes ) professional musicians already. He's been to WF ( probably as Abel ) but was never more than a face in the crowd...

Where he might well have formed some acquaintances ( and visited more often ) would be at the smaller , more Northerly holds.

And when Arya was not found at Long Lake , the first people he might have been able to turn to for information would be the Northern clans. Alternatively, the " hidey holes " he knew might have been under closer watch than he expected , and the Liddle may have found him. Either way , it would be quicker and safer for all, if word was sent to Manderly via an assumed existing communication chain.

I think it's unlikely that he would have had time , after searching around Long Lake ( and possibly delaying a bit to see if "Arya" would appear) to then make for Barrowton ( or even farther , White Harbour) , spearwives in tow, hoping to connect with the right person(s) to ally with... In fact , Mance wouldn't know any other plan was afoot , so wouldn't he just turn up at Winterfell hoping to be granted entrance ? I mean , Mance correctly assumes that one singer and a handful of women wouldn't be seen as a threat . The absence of Manderly's singer would be something the GNC thought of as last minute insurance. To whatever degree Mance is in the know about the GNC ( I don't think it can be at the highest level )..and even if he did go to Barrowton, it would be under the auspices of someone well known and trusted ( hello, Myrtle..).

I'm also doubtful that the horns and drums of the Umbers are a signal primarily for Mance to act. It may serve notice to him as well , but that's not the object of the exercise. If it was merely to benefit Mance's plan, the signal needs to be travelling from the inside out, not the outside in. ..I think it does..but Mance hadn't enlisted Theon's aid yet ... and suppose Theon had not gone to the Godswood , or anywhere else they could have buttonholed him that night ? If the noise had started after Mance spoke to Theon , then maybe I could see it...

The tactic of making noise , playing loud music at night, etc. during a seige to deprive your opponent of sleep, make them jumpy , provoke them to act erratically is well known. But the Umbers would have had no way of predicting the arrival of Karstark's raven, and probably didn't expect such a quick reaction. They might have been expecting to have to keep it up for a few nights more.. or they might have been expecting all hell to break loose within the castle , and some Boltons and Freys to attempt escape. ;)

One thing about the horns that does really connect for me is the first horn... I had originally thought that maybe the HM was either on his way to give or receive a signal, or on his way back, afterward... Of course , there would still be a problem with any visual signal ...and I've since realized that the timing is a little off, anyway... But I do think that the description of the sounding of the first horn seeming " to hang over the battlements " could very well be a signal from inside WF...The way it's phrased seems designed to imply that the sound was coming from above rather than below ... as for where it emanates from , there are sentries on the battlements , so that's unlikely , but any of the disused towers would serve.

There are, as usual , many ambiguities that could misdirect us . In Asha's last chapter, there's a reminder that it can be difficult to tell exactly where sound is coming from in a snowstorm. But is that more true on the ground than a hundred feet up ? Seems possible , with more snow covered trees, walls, etc. at ground level , to act as baffles .

When the Umber drums start up ( beginning on p.614 ADWD ) ... " All along the castle walls , sentries turned toward the sound." .... " The drumming seemed to be coming from the wolfswood beyond the hunter's gate. " ....Theon and a "score of men followed the sound along the wall walk.." Of course, when they reached the hunter's gate, nothing could be seen , but everyone's ears were registering the same location ...Later , on the ground in the godswood , Theon thought the drumming " seemed to come from everywhere at once " ... very like Asha's confusion when she hears the approaching horses. But there is a possibility that Theon's right...

There's not much doubt that the Umbers were outside the hunter's gate , because when Tycho and co. reached WF, he found the Umbers still beating drums and blowing horns , and Tycho would have been approaching from the northwest, in line with the hunter's gate. Yet we know there were pits dug at the east (main) gate. The drums died away toward dawn but three more horn blasts were heard after... Might they have been signaling readiness at the other 3 gates as well ?.. More pits, or some other form of sabotage ?..Or ( less likely ) they might be some sort of call and answer between Tycho's approaching party and the Umbers, I suppose...

We don't know the location of the battlements gate ( not marked on the layout in the Wiki), but if you think of the purpose of such a gate ( to move defenders to the outer wall ) and put it together with the passage inside the inner wall , which is also designed to move men about strategically , then it makes sense that the BG would be located close to one of the entrances to that passage.That would put it close to either the north or south gate. ( Probably North since Mance and the Great hall are in the opposite direction ) ...This implies that the vicinity of all the gates are under Umber ( or allied ) surveillance , as Theon and Jeyne are found pretty quickly.... And that seems to me a great expenditure of men and effort just to support Mance's plan. I agree the Umbers seem to be keeping an eye out for him or any of his group, but again, I think it's just an addendum to their original plan. I'm betting if Mance had never been sent out by Jon , we would still have seen the Umbers making noise and digging pits . It's part of the larger strategy.

There's something else I find odd in all the Umber business. We may be misreading Mors' questioning of "Arya" slightly . He may not be trying to verify that she is Arya, but rather that she is not Arya. Yes, Jonelle Cerwyn was likely to notice and I'm sure Barbrey Dustin does as well.They were both in Barrowton with her and Barbrey insisted on taking "Arya" under her wing between the time of her arrival and the wedding. Since I see Barbrey as part of the GNC , I think all of the leadership of the conspiracy would then also know, even if there had been no other clues... Now, if Manderly engages Davos to bring Rickon to him , not Stannis , why would any of them turn the real Arya over to Stannis ? Even if they already have Rickon in hand, why take the counter claimant out of Bolton's hands , only to give her to Stannis , to marry off as he will ?..I can't see it. Rickon's a child . Children and old people are the most vulnerable in winter... Yes, it's Mance's plan ( maybe only his secondary plan , if he can't get "Arya" to Jon ) but it would be self defeating for the GNC...This is just one sign that Mance , far from calling the shots or unifying northern resistance , has not been taken fully into their confidence.

At the outset , Mance could never have counted on getting help from Theon , of all people. So he was largely playing the escape by ear..Scaling the walls may always have been a default plan.. but he may have hoped to walk "Arya" out disguised as one of the washerwomen, if the place was not sealed up like a drum, or he may have hoped to hide her in the crypts until Stannis took the castle , or hoped to find a secret exit. He was still looking to Theon for answers the night before... This , too , argues against the Umbers being there for Mance.

Some speculate that Mance met Theon in the crypts . I don't think so. ...Though they tried to get him to do it , Theon never showed the crypts to the spearwives ...and they were taking Theon to Mance , not the other way around. So at this stage , I doubt Mance had located the crypts yet, in spite of his fixation on Bael the bard...

Lady Dustin could have told him , but she obviously hadn't ( I suspect for good reason ) ...This doesn't seem like he could have done much liaising with her in Barrowton... And it may be that for safety's sake ( hers , since she's under the deepest cover ) , Mance doesn't know that she's involved.

I must say , I really like the idea of the Cerwyn seat as a staging area. None of the maps I looked at months back showed it's exact location , but you can see that it's right in line midway between WF and one branch of the White Knife. Earlier I had postulated that if a secret passage was built , an exit / entrance toward the river would have been practical for speedy escapes. A friendly hold in the vicinity would be a bonus. ( Because it's been so depleted of manpower, it could absorb a good number of clandestine forces at a time , without tell tale crowding.)

Jonelle Cerwyn is conspicuous by her absence in WF, but we can see a possible excuse for her in the presence of Maester Rhodry , there to assist Roose in taking Luwin's ravens under control , etc... Her house has been decimated, and would need some senior presence. If Roose needs her maester, perhaps she can say, in that case , she needs to be at home. ( and if her maester was not trusted.. it would be a convenient arrangement ) Roose can hardly consider her much of a threat considering the condition of her house ( thanks to him , in great measure ).. I think this is another mark against Ser Kyle Condon being present ( except possibly in secret at the Cerwyn seat ). Roose wants the presence of the heads of houses at the wedding. If Ser Kyle was known to be in the North, and trusted by Roose ,a more suitable arrangement would be for him to "hold the fort" and Jonelle to attend the wedding.

It's worth noting that whether the GNC know for certain who killed Cley ( and they probably suspect ) there may always have been bad blood between the Boltons and Cerwyns. A Bolton man killed a Cerwyn man when Robb called his banners,before they ever set out , and Cerwyn men have certainly not fared well under Roose's command.

I'll just add for now, that I don't think we can say where the HM is going when he passes Theon. We don't know what direction Theon is going in and there are any number of locations in either direction from the great hall . We don't know who he might have been meeting or what he was up to.

[Aluminum Link]

There are actually probably quite a few old, white haired men who have seen better days wandering around Winterfell. Men fitting this description probably make up a significant portion of the population, in fact.

Whoresbane Umber (who does not share the immense size with his kin), for one, is described as "gaunt" and "cadaverous." He is probably about the age Theon is described to look and has white hair.

Then there's all the men he brought with him. Whoresbane took all the old men from Last Hearth, while Crowfood has the green boys. So virtually any of the Umber men could fit that description, and there are quite a few.

Lord Ryswell is probably quite old, considering he has at least five adult children, though we don't get a description of him.

Lord Ondrew Locke is simply described as an old man. No physical description is given.

And remember, most of the men of fighting age went with Robb Stark, so many houses who brought in reserves likely had to bring old men and green boys, and we get far more indication that the men present are older than younger in the text, which jives with the notion that in the north, when winter comes, the young children are to be preserved at all cost, while the old men go out to die.

These are just examples, but the point is without close inspection, nothing about Theon makes him look like any more than a gimpy old man, and there are lots of old men floating around, many of whom are likely gimpy.

Whoresbane also has a long white beard, something Theon doesn't have. Cadaverous as he might be, I don't recall it ever being said that he had trouble walking as Theon does. I don't think the two could be easily mistaken.

And while Theon does say to Stannis that Whoresbane's contingent is full of old men, he also calls those same men "greybeards". A greybeard is not someone who is ready to keel over and die at any moment, it's simply someone who is past their prime, and certainly past prime fighting age. These men can still fight and are therefore unlikely to be mistaken for Theon even on their worst day.

I think if the castle were so filled with hobbled old men, or people in as sorry a state as him, Theon would have observed it in his time there.

[Meddler]

The washerwomen don't even realize how hobbled Theon is at first. Rowan asks him to dance when she firsts approaches him in the Great Hall. Theon reflects on how he no longer can, but it was not plainly obvious to Rowan.

Theon is said to appear to have aged about 40 years. That's makes him look about 60. That's quite old in culture such as this, but not necessarily ready to keel over and die. The Blackfish is around 60. Some of the Lords present seem to be even older. Many of the men Whoresbane brought are probably around this age.

Whatever the case, we're at the point where I don't see how we can expect someone who has never seen Theon to recognize him. It's not the hobbling, since the HM doesn't recognize Theon until their eyes meet (another indication of personal recognition, and besides, its not plainly obvious just how hobbled Theon is, per the washerwomen). It's not that he's old-looking, there are lots of men who are the age Theon appears to be present. What other distinguishing characteristic is there? Did Davos realize who he was because he looked 60ish and didn't have a beard?

[Aluminum Link]

The washerwomen don't even realize how hobbled Theon is at first. Rowan asks him to dance when she firsts approaches him in the Great Hall. Theon reflects on how he no longer can, but it was not plainly obvious to Rowan.

She is trying to get Theon alone. Theon refuses because he would be embarrassed by the result, not because he couldn't do it. Rowan has no way to know this. This is not evidence that Theon doesn't hobble. It is clearly stated several times that he does.

Theon is said to appear to have aged about 40 years. That's makes him look about 60. That's quite old in culture such as this, but not necessarily ready to keel over and die. The Blackfish is around 60. Some of the Lords present seem to be even older. Many of the men Whoresbane brought are probably around this age.

When Asha sees him she observes:

The old man ... no one would ever think him comely. She had seen scarecrows with more flesh. His face was a skull with skin...

Does this sound like your average sixty year old? Do you really think the Blackfish looks like this? Or the average greybeard soldier? I highly doubt it.

Whatever the case, we're at the point where I don't see how we can expect someone who has never seen Theon to recognize him. It's not the hobbling, since the HM doesn't recognize Theon until their eyes meet (another indication of personal recognition, and besides, its not plainly obvious just how hobbled Theon is, per the washerwomen). It's not that he's old-looking, there are lots of men who are the age Theon appears to be present. What other distinguishing characteristic is there? Did Davos realize who he was because he looked 60ish and didn't have a beard?

IMO ruling out everyone who is not known to have seen Theon in his current state rules out almost anyone who makes any kind of sense. I don't buy that he doesn't hobble, he does. But it doesn't matter because, IMO again, he's easily recognizable otherwise.

Keep in mind that one possibility is that the HM was already present in the crypt when Theon was there with Barbrey and it was their clearing of the entrance that enabled the HM to gain access to Winterfell. In that case the HM may have seen Theon before their infamous encounter.

Or the HM could have been looking out a window of the castle and seen him during his visit (we don't know how long the HM has been there). Or Theon may have been pointed out to him by someone else. The point being, even if you don't believe Theon stands out from the crowd, there are a number of possibilities that leave the door open to the HM being someone who would not have recognized Theon in his current state on first sight.

[Brother Seamus]

We're all really into the HM mystery, but I think we're forgetting how innocuous a scene it was in the books. The idea that Theon would come across someone who insulted him and that he didn't recognize, is pretty unremarkable in itself.

I agree. I didn't even notice this scene as anything unusual. when I started reading threads on here about the HM I didn't even know what people were talking about.

I tend to agree now it probably is something important, but it's far from a sure thing.

[Meddler]

She is trying to get Theon alone. Theon refuses because he would be embarrassed by the result, not because he couldn't do it. Rowan has no way to know this. This is not evidence that Theon doesn't hobble. It is clearly stated several times that he does.

When Asha sees him she observes:

Does this sound like your average sixty year old? Do you really think the Blackfish looks like this? Or the average greybeard soldier? I highly doubt it.

IMO ruling out everyone who is not known to have seen Theon in his current state rules out almost anyone who makes any kind of sense. I don't buy that he doesn't hobble, he does. But it doesn't matter because, IMO again, he's easily recognizable otherwise.

Keep in mind that one possibility is that the HM was already present in the crypt when Theon was there with Barbrey and it was their clearing of the entrance that enabled the HM to gain access to Winterfell. In that case the HM may have seen Theon before their infamous encounter.

Or the HM could have been looking out a window of the castle and seen him during his visit (we don't know how long the HM has been there). Or Theon may have been pointed out to him by someone else. The point being, even if you don't believe Theon stands out from the crowd, there are a number of possibilities that leave the door open to the HM being someone who would not have recognized Theon in his current state on first sight.

It doesn't matter if the Blackfish looks like him. The point is there are lots of older men around Winterfell who are around 50 or 60 years old. Someone who walks into Winterfell, having never been there before, possibly having never even met a northman, would have no way of being sure an old looking man just happened to be the guy he heard might be among the hundreds of people present in the castle. Asha doesn't recognize Theon, despite knowing he was flayed (Ramsay sent her a piece of Theon's skin).

The whole scene with the HM reflects recognition rather than identification. The HM realizes who he is when their eyes meet, first of all, and he doesn't do anything that indicates deduction. He doesn't say "You are Theon, the Turncloak and Kinslayer." Their eyes meet and the HM immediately knows who he is, but the grab for the dagger after their eyes meet indicate he didn't recognize Theon until that point.

The argument isn't that the HM can only be someone who has seen Theon in his current state. Whoresbane's recognition indicates it's possible to recognize him from before, while Asha and Arnolf's failure to do so indicate recognition is not a given. It just doesn't seem possible that a stranger would behave in the way the HM did. It's much more likely someone familiar with Theon, and the anger indicates a personal stake in something Theon had done--probably a Stark sympathetic Northman.

[Old Fishfoot]

There are actually probably quite a few old, white haired men who have seen better days wandering around Winterfell. Men fitting this description probably make up a significant portion of the population, in fact.

Whoresbane Umber (who does not share the immense size with his kin), for one, is described as "gaunt" and "cadaverous." He is probably about the age Theon is described to look and has white hair.

Then there's all the men he brought with him. Whoresbane took all the old men from Last Hearth, while Crowfood has the green boys. So virtually any of the Umber men could fit that description, and there are quite a few.

Lord Ryswell is probably quite old, considering he has at least five adult children, though we don't get a description of him.

Lord Ondrew Locke is simply described as an old man. No physical description is given.

And remember, most of the men of fighting age went with Robb Stark, so many houses who brought in reserves likely had to bring old men and green boys, and we get far more indication that the men present are older than younger in the text, which jives with the notion that in the north, when winter comes, the young children are to be preserved at all cost, while the old men go out to die.

These are just examples, but the point is without close inspection, nothing about Theon makes him look like any more than a gimpy old man, and there are lots of old men floating around, many of whom are likely gimpy.

I think there's one small problem, the stink of him. On the regular GRRM is talking about how any and all who engage with Theon wrinkle their noses at him, comment on his stench. I don't have ADWD in front of me right now, but it might be pretty interesting if HM does NOT make such an observation. Perhaps a Theon Durden clue, which I'm not hot for, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility either.

[Meddler]

I think there's one small problem, the stink of him. On the regular GRRM is talking about how any and all who engage with Theon wrinkle their noses at him, comment on his stench. I don't have ADWD in front of me right now, but it might be pretty interesting if HM does NOT make such an observation. Perhaps a Theon Durden clue, which I'm not hot for, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility either.

I could be wrong, because I don't have the books in front of me, but I believe this changes after Roose shows up. At least before going as envoy to the Ironmen, Theon is washed and clothed, and it seems he is so when he presents Arya too. I believe he stays this way for the most part during the duration of his stay at Winterfell. The washerwomen don't comment on the smell either, nor does Lady Dustin when they go down to the crypts, as far as I can remember.

[Old Fishfoot]

I could be wrong, because I don't have the books in front of me, but I believe this changes after Roose shows up. At least before going as envoy to the Ironmen, Theon is washed and clothed, and it seems he is so when he presents Arya too. I believe he stays this way for the most part during the duration of his stay at Winterfell. The washerwomen don't comment on the smell either, nor does Lady Dustin when they go down to the crypts, as far as I can remember.

Right before Theon goes outside where he meets the HM, we have the following:

[Damon Dance-for-Me says,] "You are starting to stink again, Reek."

Theon had no reply for that [...]

[...]

"Go away, Reek," Skinner said. "The smell of you turns my stomach."

And later on in the chapter entitled "The Turncloak" when Theon escorts Lady Dustin into the Stark crypts the first thing she does upon meeting him is give him a "sniff" and comment about how he's still wearing the same clothes that he did at the wedding.

[Runaway Penguin]

cannot find it now, but who was sent with Ned's bones? Ah, here: Winterfell's Captain of Guards Hallis Mollen.

Given the likely double play of Lady Dustin and her plan to intercept the bones - though likely with a different intent than shared with Reek - I guess he may be a good candidate. Intercepted around the Neck by Lady Dustin's men, redirected to lay Lord Eddard's bones temporarily at safe location and employed by the Great Northern conspiracy as its agent.

It would be less anonymous character, would not have to travel at faster-than-light speeds, would have excellent knowledge of local affairs...

EDIt: Since H.M. did not make it N of the Neck before the Ironborn, he probably took detour to Greywater Watch... Meeting with the bearers of the Will?

[Meddler]

Right before Theon goes outside where he meets the HM, we have the following:

And later on in the chapter entitled "The Turncloak" when Theon escorts Lady Dustin into the Stark crypts the first thing she does upon meeting him is give him a "sniff" and comment about how he's still wearing the same clothes that he did at the wedding.

Well that would at least seem to indicate that he doesn't smell as bad as he did before being cleaned up, though it seems he is starting to smell again.

I'm pretty sure the crypts is also before the HM (The chapter order is "The Prince of Winterfell," "The Turncloak," "A Ghost in Winterfell" and then it goes back to "Theon"). Lady Dustin had also met Theon the first time prior to his being cleaned up, so her sniffing him may actually indicate he doesn't smell as bad as he did then. She was pretty disgusted by him the first time they met, but not nearly so much this time.

cannot find it now, but who was sent with Ned's bones? Ah, here: Winterfell's Captain of Guards Hallis Mollen.

Given the likely double play of Lady Dustin and her plan to intercept the bones - though likely with a different intent than shared with Reek - I guess he may be a good candidate. Intercepted around the Neck by Lady Dustin's men, redirected to lay Lord Eddard's bones temporarily at safe location and employed by the Great Northern conspiracy as its agent.

It would be less anonymous character, would not have to travel at faster-than-light speeds, would have excellent knowledge of local affairs...

EDIt: Since H.M. did not make it N of the Neck before the Ironborn, he probably took detour to Greywater Watch... Meeting with the bearers of the Will?

Yeah, Hallis Mollen is another possibility, but he's another guy who Theon would likely recognize (though, at least in his case, we know his stated destination is Winterfell, unlike Harwin or the Blackfish). His location is a fascinating mystery too though. Lady Dustin seemed pretty determined not to let Ned's bones reach Winterfell.

[Runaway Penguin]

So she did. And the reason "IhateNed" is exactly what even Roose would believe, let alone Ramsay through Reek.

Basic calculation for the would be to prevent Boltons from gaining more legitimity by letting fArya to place Ned's bones to rest. Moreover keeping them at some place would free up Mollen and his men (how many did he have? 20?) to cause mischief while keeping plausible deniability for all the Northern lords involved.

[Meddler]

So she did. And the reason "IhateNed" is exactly what even Roose would believe, let alone Ramsay through Reek.

Basic calculation for the would be to prevent Boltons from gaining more legitimity by letting fArya to place Ned's bones to rest. Moreover keeping them at some place would free up Mollen and his men (how many did he have? 20?) to cause mischief while keeping plausible deniability for all the Northern lords involved.

Yeah, I'm pretty convinced something could be happening at Castle Cerwyn. Most likely either Robett Glover is coordinating Clandestine Operations or Wyman Manderly has a host of troops stashed there, but I suppose it's possible Hal somehow got through the Neck and is hiding out there as well.

[Har!]

Sorry, just catching up, so many good contributions back and forth on many issues!

But Theon isn't a Northman. He's Ironborn, and a hostage of Winterfell. They're not his "tribe". Even if this distinction was lost on the wildlings, it never would be on Mors Umber, who would understand Westerosi politics. As far as he'd be concerned, Theon's life would have been under constant threat as long as he was in the North, as insurance against further rebellion attempts from his father. If Ned could kill Theon and not be considered a kinslayer, how is it that Theon cannot kill a northman without being considered a kinslayer?

And again, the washerwomen clearly state that they're not referring to Bran and Rickon, or at the very least that there's a distinction between Theon's relationship to them and kinship. Why would they then be referring to the other men of Winterfell Theon had killed? Bran and Rickon were closer to family than Mikken or Farlen.

What Har! is pointing out also applies to the miller's children. I think that's what he's relating it to, that Theon may have killed them, and that one or both may have been his son, and that it doesn't matter whether he knows or not, it's still a sin.

As for why or whether someone would investigate Theon's parentage of the miller's sons, the explanation isn't so direct, or even necessary. In Condon's case, he's a Northern captain of moderate birth who spent most of his life as an enforcer near Acorn Mill. It's even possible Acorn Mill is on Cerwyn land. Though it's not specified, it would make intuitive sense for a mill to be placed in between the two largest settlements in the area--which would be Winterfell and Castle Cerwyn. He may have already known rumors that Theon was the father of one of the miller's children. He may have even known the miller, been friends with him, or the miller may have even come to him complaining that Theon had been sleeping with his wife and gotten her pregnant. It's not necessary to speculate that he'd have to go out of his way to find out.

In Glover's case, the idea isn't that he's investigating whether Theon was the father of these children, but that he's investigating the validity of Wex's story. He might go to the mill simply to find out what happened, discover that the children are gone, and along the way also discover that one or both of the children were actually Theon's. As a mute and an Ironborn, Wex isn't exactly a credible source, even if Glover and Manderly believe him. They likely would have wanted more evidence if it became necessary or beneficial to explain the truth at any point.

I don't think Harwin, the Liddle, or the Blackfish are particularly good candidates, in part for this very reason.

I have to agree with what Meddler says here, and yes he is correct that I was alluding to the Miller's sons. My quote of Ygritte was not to demonstrate that the Wildlings have an exaggerated notion of kinship but rather that they view kinslaying as a crime even when the slayer is ignorant of the relation. This is in keeping with the Greek Oedipus myth, who slew his father and wed his mother in ignorance and yet was considered culpable by the gods.

And I don't think you can view kinslaying apart from the gods. To engage in kinslaying is not just a shade or two worse that being a 'turncloak.' (And note that Theon never dispute the term 'turncloak' despite the fact that one can legitimately question of whether a hostage can ever truly be considered a turncloak.) Something categorically different is at play it seems to me.

Kinslaying is a violation that is seemingly observed by all the relevant religious perspectives in play in this circumstance. So to falsely accuse someone of kinslaying would also represent a violation in the eyes of the gods, a form of blasphemy. That is one reason why I believe that the term is not used merely as a derogatory but rather quite specifically (some would argue 'on a technical basis') only when merited by circumstance.

And consider this: it is only because the term is understood in Westerosi culture in very specific, 'technical' terms that Theon bothers to contest it. If the term were merely a highly offensive derogatory, why bother contesting it? Theon has suffered far worse than derision at the hands of Ramsey. Theon contests the application of the term kinslayer because in their culture it is not considered a highly charged epithet but is rather a very specific religious transgression.

See the next quote below:

I can see that argument, but I don't know if I buy it. Kinslaying is considered one of the most dire sins someone can commit, both in Westeros and north of the Wall. It's not just morally reprehensible, it's profane and ungodly, it's on a completely different scale than just turning one's cloak. It holds special meaning to kill one of your own blood. It's not a term that's used lightly, and indeed, no one else who is aware of Theon's supposed murder of the Stark boys seems to consider him such. Just the HM, the wildling women, and Mors Umber, as far as we know. Everyone calls him Turncloak, which is morally reprehensible, but not a religious violation.

I suppose it's possible that there is a different interpretation of kinslaying north of the wall, but this still doesn't explain Mors Umber. The Umbers may share more cultural sensibilities with the wildlings than other northmen, but then why doesn't Whoresbane treat Theon as a kinslayer? When Theon is brought before Whoresbane, he makes special note that his throat should be slit because he's a turncloak--because he's liable to betray Ramsay as he did Robb. He considers Theon's crime to be against Robb, not Bran and Rickon.

As far as the narrative purpose goes I think it speaks to Theon's character prior to his transformation--his willful ignorance and lack of scope of vision. He's ambitious and cunning enough to attempt to take the most prominent castle in the North on his own and against orders, but not aware enough to realize these sons of a woman he slept with might be his.

Remember, when we're reintroduced to Theon in ADwD, we haven't seen and have barely heard about him for about 3,000 pages. He does not appear in either ASoS or AFfC, and not until the 12th chapter of ADwD. It's stated a few times that Ramsay is torturing him, but as far as we, as the reader, are concerned, he's likely dead or doomed. No other POV just has just dropped off the map for so long, in fact I'm pretty sure he's the only established POV to disappear prior to AFfC without dying. And his first chapter in ADwD isn't even titled Theon, it's titled Reek, who last we heard was Ramsay. The first time I read Theon's first chapter in ADwD, I felt it was the most jarring moment in the series since the RW. There's a narrative purpose to reminding the reader who this character was in contrast to who he's become, especially when we don't actually witness the transformation and we've spent so much time (reading time, that is, not in-world time) without him.

There is also strong narrative context for the notion that Theon fathered the miller's boys. Theon remembers his tryst with the miller's wife in both ACoK and ADwD. He does so multiple times in ACoK, but I believe just once in ADwD--immediately after being called a kinslayer by the washerwoman, and remembering the boys he killed (there may have been another, but this is the most important time). Whether or not it proves true or meaningful, it's all laid out within a single passage--Theon called kinslayer, Theon thinks about the boys he killed, Theon remembers sleeping with the boys' mother. His affair with the woman almost becomes a red herring if it didn't produce one of the boys given that. Prior to all this, in ACoK, in Theon's very first POV chapter in the whole series, he also sleeps with the daughter of the captain of the Myraham, and tells her he has probably gotten her with child, and that her father should be pleased to raise a prince's bastard. I don't believe he ever thinks of her again.

GRRM does helpfully lay out all the clues regarding the miller's sons for us again... this cannot be accidental.

I expect you could explain it in terms of Theon trying to come to grips with the shocking accusation and subconsciously putting the two and two together, but it is still so shocking that he - consciously - cannot wrap his head around it.

Or you could simply say that GRRM is using Theon's confused mental state to leave us a trail of bread crumbs.

The two are not mutually exclusive, in fact they are mutually reinforcing.

And isn't is a bit surprising that Theon would be so troubled by such an accusation?

Again I believe you can only understand him being so troubled by it because in his cultural and religious milieu one simply does not bandy about the term 'kinslayer.' Why? Because the term is highly specific ('technical') and not simply one of many words one may employ as a term of abuse. To do so is blasphemous and invites retribution from the gods.

Theon clearly is troubled by the use of the term as directed at him and one may speculate that - subconsciously - he suspects whether he may well be guilty. In a sense his conscious self 'doth protest too much.'

Quick question here:

When I read he Ghost in Winterfell chapter, I was under the impression that the HM is only in Theon's imagination.

Has this been positivly disproved, and if so, could anyone please give me a quick roundup or point me to one?

thanks & cheers,

Mac

When I first read the passage I had no inkling of such a 'durden' reading. I only encountered it upon joining this board and was frankly amazed at how popular it was. It seems to me to be a case where people are interpolating a 'hollywood' trope where there is really is no textual support... simply on the basis of 'wouldn't that be cool.' I could be wrong but that is how the whole 'durden' phenomenon appears to me.

What is the basis for it? Fight Club? A Beautiful Mind? Momento? At least in the second of these cases one could argue that it was an extremely weak trope, a clumsy interpolation to bridge poor storytelling. In the other two it was central to the core 'mystery.' If GRRM were to employ it here I feel it would fall in the former category. I give him more credit than that.

Just as importantly, RedRiver has said it is not something that is terribly plausible. Again I would give GRRM the credit for doing his due diligence (and research) and avoiding engaging in an implausibility.

Further to the Liddle , I'll just add add again...

It seems to me that the only thing that would account for the Liddle's odd behavior to Bran is that he has some inside info that Bran must go North , either from BR/CoTF directly, or from a returning Benjen. Only they could know of any reason to allow a young boy ( who had served as the Stark in WF before the sack ) to go into danger ... Since the Liddle knows of Mormont's ranging and that birds have come back without messages , he probably knows Jon is with Mormont as well . So why would he let Bran proceed to the wall without much hope of refuge ? He knows the NW takes no part ... considering his Stark loyalty , he must have a good reason.. We know BR has been able to see what's going on , but not communicate well. He can influence dreams , but can the dreamer interpret them properly ? This makes me think the info comes through Benjen. Who else would the Liddle believe or trust ?

Moving on to Mance , I can't really see him as someone who would be directing the action . His plan is simply being absorbed into the Northern Lords' pre-existing plan ( and I think the same is true for Stannis )... Nor can I see him having direct communication with Manderly . He must only be familiar as Abel south of the wall , and may not ever have been as far south as White Harbour. He's only a "fair" musician with a pleasant , but not remarkable voice. Even if he had gone that far south , it's unlikely he would have been able to gain access to the Lord of WH , who has a roster of ( one assumes ) professional musicians already. He's been to WF ( probably as Abel ) but was never more than a face in the crowd...

Where he might well have formed some acquaintances ( and visited more often ) would be at the smaller , more Northerly holds.

And when Arya was not found at Long Lake , the first people he might have been able to turn to for information would be the Northern clans. Alternatively, the " hidey holes " he knew might have been under closer watch than he expected , and the Liddle may have found him. Either way , it would be quicker and safer for all, if word was sent to Manderly via an assumed existing communication chain.

I think it's unlikely that he would have had time , after searching around Long Lake ( and possibly delaying a bit to see if "Arya" would appear) to then make for Barrowton ( or even farther , White Harbour) , spearwives in tow, hoping to connect with the right person(s) to ally with... In fact , Mance wouldn't know any other plan was afoot , so wouldn't he just turn up at Winterfell hoping to be granted entrance ? I mean , Mance correctly assumes that one singer and a handful of women wouldn't be seen as a threat . The absence of Manderly's singer would be something the GNC thought of as last minute insurance. To whatever degree Mance is in the know about the GNC ( I don't think it can be at the highest level )..and even if he did go to Barrowton, it would be under the auspices of someone well known and trusted ( hello, Myrtle..).

I'm also doubtful that the horns and drums of the Umbers are a signal primarily for Mance to act. It may serve notice to him as well , but that's not the object of the exercise. If it was merely to benefit Mance's plan, the signal needs to be travelling from the inside out, not the outside in. ..I think it does..but Mance hadn't enlisted Theon's aid yet ... and suppose Theon had not gone to the Godswood , or anywhere else they could have buttonholed him that night ? If the noise had started after Mance spoke to Theon , then maybe I could see it...

The tactic of making noise , playing loud music at night, etc. during a seige to deprive your opponent of sleep, make them jumpy , provoke them to act erratically is well known. But the Umbers would have had no way of predicting the arrival of Karstark's raven, and probably didn't expect such a quick reaction. They might have been expecting to have to keep it up for a few nights more.. or they might have been expecting all hell to break loose within the castle , and some Boltons and Freys to attempt escape. ;)

One thing about the horns that does really connect for me is the first horn... I had originally thought that maybe the HM was either on his way to give or receive a signal, or on his way back, afterward... Of course , there would still be a problem with any visual signal ...and I've since realized that the timing is a little off, anyway... But I do think that the description of the sounding of the first horn seeming " to hang over the battlements " could very well be a signal from inside WF...The way it's phrased seems designed to imply that the sound was coming from above rather than below ... as for where it emanates from , there are sentries on the battlements , so that's unlikely , but any of the disused towers would serve.

There are, as usual , many ambiguities that could misdirect us . In Asha's last chapter, there's a reminder that it can be difficult to tell exactly where sound is coming from in a snowstorm. But is that more true on the ground than a hundred feet up ? Seems possible , with more snow covered trees, walls, etc. at ground level , to act as baffles .

When the Umber drums start up ( beginning on p.614 ADWD ) ... " All along the castle walls , sentries turned toward the sound." .... " The drumming seemed to be coming from the wolfswood beyond the hunter's gate. " ....Theon and a "score of men followed the sound along the wall walk.." Of course, when they reached the hunter's gate, nothing could be seen , but everyone's ears were registering the same location ...Later , on the ground in the godswood , Theon thought the drumming " seemed to come from everywhere at once " ... very like Asha's confusion when she hears the approaching horses. But there is a possibility that Theon's right...

There's not much doubt that the Umbers were outside the hunter's gate , because when Tycho and co. reached WF, he found the Umbers still beating drums and blowing horns , and Tycho would have been approaching from the northwest, in line with the hunter's gate. Yet we know there were pits dug at the east (main) gate. The drums died away toward dawn but three more horn blasts were heard after... Might they have been signaling readiness at the other 3 gates as well ?.. More pits, or some other form of sabotage ?..Or ( less likely ) they might be some sort of call and answer between Tycho's approaching party and the Umbers, I suppose...

We don't know the location of the battlements gate ( not marked on the layout in the Wiki), but if you think of the purpose of such a gate ( to move defenders to the outer wall ) and put it together with the passage inside the inner wall , which is also designed to move men about strategically , then it makes sense that the BG would be located close to one of the entrances to that passage.That would put it close to either the north or south gate. ( Probably North since Mance and the Great hall are in the opposite direction ) ...This implies that the vicinity of all the gates are under Umber ( or allied ) surveillance , as Theon and Jeyne are found pretty quickly.... And that seems to me a great expenditure of men and effort just to support Mance's plan. I agree the Umbers seem to be keeping an eye out for him or any of his group, but again, I think it's just an addendum to their original plan. I'm betting if Mance had never been sent out by Jon , we would still have seen the Umbers making noise and digging pits . It's part of the larger strategy.

There's something else I find odd in all the Umber business. We may be misreading Mors' questioning of "Arya" slightly . He may not be trying to verify that she is Arya, but rather that she is not Arya. Yes, Jonelle Cerwyn was likely to notice and I'm sure Barbrey Dustin does as well.They were both in Barrowton with her and Barbrey insisted on taking "Arya" under her wing between the time of her arrival and the wedding. Since I see Barbrey as part of the GNC , I think all of the leadership of the conspiracy would then also know, even if there had been no other clues... Now, if Manderly engages Davos to bring Rickon to him , not Stannis , why would any of them turn the real Arya over to Stannis ? Even if they already have Rickon in hand, why take the counter claimant out of Bolton's hands , only to give her to Stannis , to marry off as he will ?..I can't see it. Rickon's a child . Children and old people are the most vulnerable in winter... Yes, it's Mance's plan ( maybe only his secondary plan , if he can't get "Arya" to Jon ) but it would be self defeating for the GNC...This is just one sign that Mance , far from calling the shots or unifying northern resistance , has not been taken fully into their confidence.

At the outset , Mance could never have counted on getting help from Theon , of all people. So he was largely playing the escape by ear..Scaling the walls may always have been a default plan.. but he may have hoped to walk "Arya" out disguised as one of the washerwomen, if the place was not sealed up like a drum, or he may have hoped to hide her in the crypts until Stannis took the castle , or hoped to find a secret exit. He was still looking to Theon for answers the night before... This , too , argues against the Umbers being there for Mance.

Some speculate that Mance met Theon in the crypts . I don't think so. ...Though they tried to get him to do it , Theon never showed the crypts to the spearwives ...and they were taking Theon to Mance , not the other way around. So at this stage , I doubt Mance had located the crypts yet, in spite of his fixation on Bael the bard...

Lady Dustin could have told him , but she obviously hadn't ( I suspect for good reason ) ...This doesn't seem like he could have done much liaising with her in Barrowton... And it may be that for safety's sake ( hers , since she's under the deepest cover ) , Mance doesn't know that she's involved.

I must say , I really like the idea of the Cerwyn seat as a staging area. None of the maps I looked at months back showed it's exact location , but you can see that it's right in line midway between WF and one branch of the White Knife. Earlier I had postulated that if a secret passage was built , an exit / entrance toward the river would have been practical for speedy escapes. A friendly hold in the vicinity would be a bonus. ( Because it's been so depleted of manpower, it could absorb a good number of clandestine forces at a time , without tell tale crowding.)

Jonelle Cerwyn is conspicuous by her absence in WF, but we can see a possible excuse for her in the presence of Maester Rhodry , there to assist Roose in taking Luwin's ravens under control , etc... Her house has been decimated, and would need some senior presence. If Roose needs her maester, perhaps she can say, in that case , she needs to be at home. ( and if her maester was not trusted.. it would be a convenient arrangement ) Roose can hardly consider her much of a threat considering the condition of her house ( thanks to him , in great measure ).. I think this is another mark against Ser Kyle Condon being present ( except possibly in secret at the Cerwyn seat ). Roose wants the presence of the heads of houses at the wedding. If Ser Kyle was known to be in the North, and trusted by Roose ,a more suitable arrangement would be for him to "hold the fort" and Jonelle to attend the wedding.

It's worth noting that whether the GNC know for certain who killed Cley ( and they probably suspect ) there may always have been bad blood between the Boltons and Cerwyns. A Bolton man killed a Cerwyn man when Robb called his banners,before they ever set out , and Cerwyn men have certainly not fared well under Roose's command.

I'll just add for now, that I don't think we can say where the HM is going when he passes Theon. We don't know what direction Theon is going in and there are any number of locations in either direction from the great hall . We don't know who he might have been meeting or what he was up to.

I like what you note regarding the horn, it is far from clear from whence the initial horn blast emanates. I find Bran Vras' commentary on it very plausible: http://branvras.free...sClos/Horn.html You don't have to agree that the blast is from the Horn of Joramun to question its origin and timing.

The horn blast is described as follows:

A long low moan, it seemed to hang above the battlements, lingering in the black air, soaking deep into the bones of every man who heard it. (A Ghost in Winterfell, ADWD)

A long low moan... very low sounds are particularly difficult to pinpoint. And indeed textually the sound of the horn is not pinpointed, it hangs above the battlements. Only the sound of the drums are given a distinct direction.

(The sound of the horn penetrates the bones - only one other horn has a call that is felt in the bones, Euron's dragon horn, which would make for a nice symmetry between fire and ice if the the horn heard in Winterfell were truly the Horn of Joramun.)

Also the sounding of horn seems to precipitate the drumming. If the HM is a go-between for Abel, Manderly, and Crowfood he could have finalized the plans for the escape (among other things) but left the exact timing of the 'drumming distraction' to be relayed from within Winterfell by the horn. Perhaps it is understood that the escape will occur at any given time within the next 24-48 hours or so after the signal. I am not settled in my mind concerning the relevance of the horn as a signal, but I like you am struck by the probability that it was sounded from within Winterfell.

She is trying to get Theon alone. Theon refuses because he would be embarrassed by the result, not because he couldn't do it. Rowan has no way to know this. This is not evidence that Theon doesn't hobble. It is clearly stated several times that he does.

When Asha sees him she observes:

Does this sound like your average sixty year old? Do you really think the Blackfish looks like this? Or the average greybeard soldier? I highly doubt it.

IMO ruling out everyone who is not known to have seen Theon in his current state rules out almost anyone who makes any kind of sense. I don't buy that he doesn't hobble, he does. But it doesn't matter because, IMO again, he's easily recognizable otherwise.

Keep in mind that one possibility is that the HM was already present in the crypt when Theon was there with Barbrey and it was their clearing of the entrance that enabled the HM to gain access to Winterfell. In that case the HM may have seen Theon before their infamous encounter.

Or the HM could have been looking out a window of the castle and seen him during his visit (we don't know how long the HM has been there). Or Theon may have been pointed out to him by someone else. The point being, even if you don't believe Theon stands out from the crowd, there are a number of possibilities that leave the door open to the HM being someone who would not have recognized Theon in his current state on first sight.

I am not sure that under the weather conditions and limited visibility that a 'hobble' would be all that observable as Theon and the HM approached each other through the snow trenches. Nor would Theon's condition instantly mark him as 'Theon' to someone who (1) has never met him and (2) obviously is surprised to find him at liberty.

If your expectation is that Theon has served his purpose and has been done away with (or at minimum is imprisoned) you are not going to instantly pick him out from all the other older, maimed individuals (iirc stout is missing an arm) as you trudge purposefully though a blinding snowfall towards the Great Hall.

The HM's recognition of Theon is instantaneous - their eyes met briefly - as is his reaction. He grabs his dagger with the intent of doing Theon harm, not out of fear (or so I read it). This is personal for him.

None of this says 'Davos' to me.

* A stranger in the north,

* one's whose liege lord considered the Starks rebels,

* who only knows Theon by reputation - a black one no doubt -

* but among all the deeds of this war not one calculated to inspire a visceral, instant reaction from a southern adherent of Stannis' cause.

[mushroomshirt]

When I first read the passage I had no inkling of such a 'durden' reading. I only encountered it upon joining this board and was frankly amazed at how popular it was. It seems to me to be a case where people are interpolating a 'hollywood' trope where there is really is no textual support... simply on the basis of 'wouldn't that be cool.' I could be wrong but that is how the whole 'durden' phenomenon appears to me.

What is the basis for it? Fight Club? A Beautiful Mind? Momento? At least in the second of these cases one could argue that it was an extremely weak trope, a clumsy interpolation to bridge poor storytelling. In the other two it was central to the core 'mystery.' If GRRM were to employ it here I feel it would fall in the former category. I give him more credit than that.

Thank you for this portion of your post. I have always had trouble articulating my dislike of the Theon Durden theory. Now that I read your post I think I must dislike it for the same reason you do - it seems like poor storytelling.

I have to admit despite reading the series at least 5 times I had absolutely no idea who Ser Kyle Condon was until I read this thread. He is a very obscure character.

I have read your previous post about being convinced that HM is Kyle. I think you make several interesting arguments. It seems to me that many of them could apply to the Liddle, Robett or Hal Mollin. You make an arguement that the Liddle and Robett would be too recognizable to be HM. I'm not convinced of that, but even if that were true, would it rule out Hallis Mollin? He has more reason to dislike Theon and would also be unrecognized by anyone save Theon currently in Winterfell (maybe even more so since Roose and Roose's men would probably recognize Kyle).

You have obviously given this a lot of thought and I would appreciate your views on Hal as the HM & why Kyle is a better candidate.

PS - Many people have nominated Harwin as a possible HM. I think there are at least two problems with him, although if they could be circumvented he would be as viable a candidate as Hallis.

1. Last we saw Harwin he was with BwB. A lot has to happen off page to get Harwin up to Winterfell.

2. Theon thinks Harwin died at King's Landing. He would be as surprised to find him alive as HM is to find Theon. (Imagine -HM: "How is it that you still live?" Theon: "How is it that you still live?")

[Meddler]

Thank you for this portion of your post. I have always had trouble articulating my dislike of the Theon Durden theory. Now that I read your post I think I must dislike it for the same reason you do - it seems like poor storytelling.

I have to admit despite reading the series at least 5 times I had absolutely no idea who Ser Kyle Condon was until I read this thread. He is a very obscure character.

I have read your previous post about being convinced that HM is Kyle. I think you make several interesting arguments. It seems to me that many of them could apply to the Liddle, Robett or Hal Mollin. You make an arguement that the Liddle and Robett would be too recognizable to be HM. I'm not convinced of that, but even if that were true, would it rule out Hallis Mollin? He has more reason to dislike Theon and would also be unrecognized by anyone save Theon currently in Winterfell (maybe even more so since Roose and Roose's men would probably recognize Kyle).

You have obviously given this a lot of thought and I would appreciate your views on Hal as the HM & why Kyle is a better candidate.

PS - Many people have nominated Harwin as a possible HM. I think there are at least two problems with him, although if they could be circumvented he would be as viable a candidate as Hallis.

1. Last we saw Harwin he was with BwB. A lot has to happen off page to get Harwin up to Winterfell.

2. Theon thinks Harwin died at King's Landing. He would be as surprised to find him alive as HM is to find Theon. (Imagine -HM: "How is it that you still live?" Theon: "How is it that you still live?")

I actually think Hal Mollen would be more recognizable than Harwin. He was the captain of the guard, while Harwin was just the son of the master of horse. Hal also comes off as a bit dopey in his dialogue throughout the series, Bran Vras makes a pretty good argument against him. We also have no indication how Hal would have gotten North of the neck, but again, as opposed to Harwin, at least we have Winterfell as his stated destination.

To be clear--I'm not convinced that Ser Kyle is absolutely the HM. I just think he makes a strong candidate, and as funny as it sounds, I think it takes the least amount of explanatory power to tie up all the loose ends around the possibility that it's him

Robett Glover would almost certainly be recognized by Theon--he was one of Robb's chief lieutenants. Even if he wasn't a Lord, he was more boisterous and charismatic than his older brother Galbart and was considered for command a number of times (including for the force that Roose wound up with, I believe). He sat on war councils, as did Theon, and was pretty vocal, and Roose would absolutely recognize him as well. We'd have to argue that he was unseen by Roose as well, which seems implausible under the conditions.

If it wasn't for these issues, Robett would be my top candidate.

The problem with the Liddle is that it's a bit arbitrary. It's possible--easy even--to construct a scenario where it's him, but it's just as easy to connect 100 other scenarios for him. With someone like Ser Kyle, or Robett, we have a more conclusive idea of their recent path and their potential motives.

I definitely didn't remember who Ser Kyle was either at first. He's very innocuous, and we never actually meet him I don't believe, he's only mentioned. The way you connect him isn't by starting with him, it's by starting with House Cerwyn in general. Their proximity to Winterfell solves the problem of the Kinslayer reference being connected to the miller's sons, and the death of Cley at the hands of Ramsay provides a strong motive. The only remaining members of the Cerwyn household we're aware of are Jonella, who does not seem to be present at Winterfell and does not fit the description of Hooded "Man," and Ser Kyle, who despite his obscurity, would fit rather nicely.

The problems with Ser Kyle are definitely ones of literary mechanics, but it's hard to consider this a very strong argument or even a true contradiction knowing GRRM's penchant for expanding his universe and bringing more and more characters into play. It's also worth noting that a character like Ser Kyle is even mentioned at all. Martin adds plenty of characters who serve as set dressing or serve minor purposes, but Ser Kyle seems almost completely arbitrary in a literary context. Ser Ronnel Stout had the co-command of the Ruby Ford. Why not just give him the command alone? Why add a co-commander, and then elaborate that the co-commander had strong ties to a house that's nearly been extinguished through treachery? Even for Martin, this seems pretty arbitrary. It wasn't necessary for that moment in the story. We don't have much detail on the non-family members of the other northern Households, even ones we've gotten quite a bit closer too such as Karstark, Umber, and Glover (the only ones we get any details on are Bolton and Manderly, as far as I can tell, and we spend much more time dealing with the internal affairs of these houses). So what was GRRM's purpose for mentioning Ser Kyle? It's pretty atypical. It doesn't make him the HM, but it's worth considering why GRRM chose to place this character into the story at all.

[Prince of the North]

When I first read the passage I had no inkling of such a 'durden' reading. I only encountered it upon joining this board and was frankly amazed at how popular it was. It seems to me to be a case where people are interpolating a 'hollywood' trope where there is really is no textual support... simply on the basis of 'wouldn't that be cool.' I could be wrong but that is how the whole 'durden' phenomenon appears to me.

What is the basis for it? Fight Club? A Beautiful Mind? Momento? At least in the second of these cases one could argue that it was an extremely weak trope, a clumsy interpolation to bridge poor storytelling. In the other two it was central to the core 'mystery.' If GRRM were to employ it here I feel it would fall in the former category. I give him more credit than that.

Just as importantly, RedRiver has said it is not something that is terribly plausible. Again I would give GRRM the credit for doing his due diligence (and research) and avoiding engaging in an implausibility.

You think the "Theon Durden" theory is popular on this board? That hasn't been my experience and I've always been "Theon Durden" (I fully embrace the derogatory name the theory's detractors have given it ;) ) from my very first reading.

Also, please don't imply that subscribers to the theory are just engaging in "wishful thinking". I could just as easily dismiss your post here as "wishful thinking" on your part simply because you don't want "Theon Durden" to be true. The truth is, none of us will know for sure until Martin tells us and until then there's just speculation.

It's also interesting that you list a few movies containing split personalities, etc. as evidence for a "Hollywood trope" and then use that as support for your thinking that Martin wouldn't do that because you "give him more credit than that". You do realize that AGoT, at least, was written before these movies were made. Furthermore, I don't know when Martin came up with the idea for Theon and Reek to have a conversation/confrontation (if that's what he did) but, then again, neither do you. Martin could very well have come up with it before or independently of "Hollywood". The point is we just don't know yet so it's all just opinion and speculation at this point.

[Brother Seamus]

i'm not in everyone else's league on this, but I want to chime in on a few points.

-the HM is someone Theon does not recognize by sight, or at least GRRM leads us to believe so.

-as I said before, I don't think there's any reason the HM has to be someone who knew Theon before. anyone who is in wf for more than a few hours could have had Theon pointed out to him. Theon is an easily identifiable character virtually everyone will be aware of.

-that said, just b/c it doesn't have to be someone who knew theon before, it's still possible, but I think unlikely. It could be, as many of the theories assume, someone who didn't know Theon was there (perhaps in wf for just minutes or hours when he saw Theon) and was surprised to see him b/c he'd concluded Theon was dead based on what he'd earlier heard. In this scenario, it must be someone who knows Theon well by sight, since Theon is nearly unrecognizable even to his sister. That's the problem with the theories that rely on this scenario: how could there be someone who knew Theon by sight well enough to recognize Theon in his altered state, but who Theon does not recognize?

-I haven't seen any discussion of the possibility that Theon's role in the killing of the ironmen (at Moat Cailin, correct?) is the source of the kinslayer accusation. My books are lent out, and I have no memory of exactly what happened there, except that Theon persuaded them to surrender and then Bolton slaughtered most of them. Does anyone have anything to add? Any basis to think some of those ironmen were Theon's kin?

-I buy into the argument that this scene is important, and from that conclude that the identity of the HM is important, and thus that the HM himself is an important character. From this I exclude the theories for Cerwyn, Glover, Harwin or any other obscure/secondary/tertiary character. Could be wrong of course, but this is the vibe I have now.

-I agree that Davos is excluded by the apparent visceral hatred of the HM for Theon. And more generally he is not someone who I see as being a candidate, because he's just not part of the general Theon/Stark/nortmen portion of the story. Although, obviously, he's now drawn into it by virtue of Manderly sending him to get Rickon. But still.

I also agree it's not Blackfish, mostly for geographical reasons, and b/c it wouldn't make much sense plot-wise.

So, based on this, I'm thinking Howland Reed or Benjen. Since I assume Theon would recognize Benjen, I'm thinking Howland Reed. If the kinslayer accusation relates to Theon's betrayal at Moat Cailin, that provides further support, since Crannogmen were present at that scene (IIRC?).

If not Howland then I'm wrong about it not being Cerwyn, Harwin, Glover or other secondary (northman or Stark-related) character, because it must be someone with some passion for hating Theon.