Hooded Man in Winterfell Part 4

[alienarea]

I've been reading this thread and other similar ones with great interest (read: obsessive compulsion) these past few days. It's been fun. I signed up because I wanted to make a pretty speculative comment on Davos as wearer of The Hood of Mystery. I'm putting aside the standard objections to Davos in WF. Although personally him being there doesn't feel quite right, I don't think any of them ("how does he recognise Theon?"; "WTF's he doing at WF?"; "I require POV unicorns"; "He never laughs"; "Cruelty isn't his style"; "The timing doesn't work"; etc...) represent THE knock-out punch. I'm also for one moment putting aside the usual arguments for his presence.

I haven't seen mention of this before (so I'm either a clearsighted genius or a terrible embarrassment) but has anybody put any thought into how this particular puzzle is going to be solved in the next book? I mean specifically in storytelling terms.

I guess one (unsatisfactory) way would be for one of the many candidates for The Hood to be in the presence of a POV character and say something like "oh, you'll never guess, before/after I was meeting secretly with Manderley/Mance/Dustin/Ned's ghost, I happened to bump in to Theon Greyjoy. He looks really terrible these days, doesn't he?"

Does that get your heart pumping?

Or maybe he won't even mention the meeting with Theon. We'll just find out there was someone who snuck secretly into WF, snuck out, and we'll shrug and say "oh, it must have been him. Huh."

I don't want to overstate things because I realise I'm now on slightly shaky ground, but the problem could be even more fundamental: assuming the second scenario, and assuming that someone is going to retrospectively detail the plot for us so that GRRM can give us the HM's name (are there even any POVs in or near WF to allow someone to monologue about the plot for our benefit? I can't think of any offhand), how can they go into sufficient detail about the anti-Frey/Bolton plot to warrant the shoehorning of one of our beloved names into The Hood without seeming contrived? The more obscure the character, the more this applies. After all, while the HM is probably key to the plot's success he's just one part of a complex plan.

If we know one thing it is that GRRM is an inventive and devious storyteller, so I'm sure he can make Glover or whoever work if he puts his mind to it. But I guess the ultimate question is: even if GRRM can contrive a way to make it uncontrived, how does this odd little HM scene in ADWD benefit the story at all if the reveal comes by one of these methods?

-

But what if we get the HM's POV of the meeting? This lets us know in a dramatic fashion: we get the name written in big letters at the beginning of the chapter. We will also get an explanation for the HM's extremely ambiguous words and actions.* In terms of the broader story it could work as a nudge and a wink to the forum freaks after (or before? I forget) an exposition heavy clandestine meeting. It would also give GRRM the opportunity to make the nice parallels between Davos and Theon that Aluminium Link suggested were present in the ADWD encounter more explicit. This same one-scene-two-POVs has already been done at least once (with Samwell and Jon in AFFC and ADWD I think). If there aren't going to be any more POVs in future -- and if the HM isn't Areo Hotah -- then we have a severely limited list of candidates. Cross-reference that with our (amusingly long) list of suspects and only one chap in the top ten fits the bill, right?

I'm not suggesting that I'm a storytelling master but I just can't think of a better way (assuming for a moment there is going to be a resolution). I was interested to see what other narrative solutions you might suggest for this carefully constructed little mystery that a) aren't anticlimactic or contrived and B) that don't spring from the HM's POV. While I greatly look forward to hearing about other storytelling possibilities, I also acknowledge that maybe the HM is the daddy of all crimson-coloured herrings... but having spent this many hours reading the discussion over the past couple of days, I want to deny that possibility for as long as humanly possible.

(I realise I haven't explicitly addressed Theon Durden. I guess it's true that Theon could bump into "himself" again at some later date, this time recognise himself, and then realise that he'd seen "himself" before. He might even have a sudden "Durden-esque" epiphany with crashing musical accompaniment. It doesn't grab me but if anyone can make it work I'm sure GRRM can. )

*For evidence that they are extremely ambiguous, look no further than threads about the HM's possible identity!

I can't remember how often I posted in this and other threads that the Hooded Man needs to be Davos for storytelling purposes. For example:

Fully agree with your analysis.

Where I guess we disagree is that I don't see a great Northern conspiracy but rather House Manderly being loyal to House Stark, having resources and doing its thing.

And I still believe the Hooded Man is Davos, because there is no argument against it, it would move the plot, and we would have a POV in Winterfell.

It doesn't help. People won't listen.

[three-eyed monkey]

First and foremost, welcome to the forum HHF. A very good first post, imo.

As you correctly observed, the resolution of the Hooded Man mystery, as well as the events in Winterfell in general, and the author of the pink letter, can only come from a limited number of POVs really, if we accept that GRRM said no more new POVs.

Asha and Theon are probably frontrunners in this respect as they are in closest proximity to WF, followed by a small number of POV characters that might have reason to go to WF in the near future, like Davos, Jon, Mel, possibly Bran via weirnet or maybe Damphair at a stretch. Jon and Theon obviously have question marks hanging over them due to their stabbing and pending execution, though question marks count for little with GRRM. My own speculative opinions about this shortlist -

I believe it is confirmed that there will be a Damphair chapter in TWoW, and GRRM may have even read from it somewhere or another, but I don't know what it contains. Personally, I think he'll remain on the Iron Isles and his arc will remain connected to overturning the kingsmoot. Of course that might give him reason to go to WF in search of Asha and/or Theon but that feels a bit clustered to me.

I think Jon and Mel will remain at the Wall for at least another chapter so I don't see either being in the WF area until after the coming Battle of Ice has been concluded. If Jon recovers he might go to deal with Ramsay, or Mel might go to Stannis if he wins, but I can't see them rushing there before the main events at WF unfold.

Where next we will see Davos is an interesting question. In pursuit of Rickon most likely, and while there is the matter of how truthful Lord Manderly has been with the Onion Knight, I think Davos believes him. So whether Rickon and Osha are there or not, perhaps he's been sent on a wild goose chase by Manderly, I do expect Davos' next chapter to be set on Skagos.

Of course Bran might see someone he recognises praying at the godswood in WF, like Hallis Mollen, which might be all the reveal we get, but I don't see us getting the whole of the unfolding of WF events through his POV.

The Battle of Ice and the following events in WF will probably be seen through the eyes of Asha and/or Theon. My own top candidates for the HM is Hallis Mollen, and I think his being there will be connected to laying Ned's bones to rest. Robett Glover is a good candidate too, and his being there is likely connected to the hidden northern army comprised of the remainder of Manderly's strength, etc. While the identity of the HM is a mystery, I think the primary purpose of the encounter was to hint that there are other agendas at work in the background at WF, and once those agendas unfold it might be fairly clear who the HM was without the need of a full reveal. If one of Glover or Mollen (or even the Blackfish or Benjen though both unlikely in my opinion) should turn up in WF, regardless of whose POV we see them through, then the reader will have enough to start putting two and two together I should think. But as I said, the HM's identity will be secondary to his purpose for being at WF in terms of the plot.

[Ha Ha Fossoway]

Thanks! It is funny how people have such differing instincts as to how the North is going to unfold - a testament to GRRM's ability to muddy the waters I think. I think our fundamental disagreement is that you see the meeting with the HM as fundamentally a plot device - i.e. it doesn't really serve much of a character purpose. So you say:

While the identity of the HM is a mystery, I think the primary purpose of the encounter was to hint that there are other agendas at work in the background at WF, and once those agendas unfold it might be fairly clear who the HM was without the need of a full reveal.

I think this is a perfectly valid interpretation of the scene, and is quite plausibly correct. HOWEVER - to me it smells not only of plot advancement but also of character. My gut feeling is that for a primarily plot developing scene Theon didn't need to interact with the HM - especially not in this ambiguous way. He didn't even really need to be close to him - just to see someone out of place scuttling or striding around and then disappearing. Deliberate obfuscation (which is what this scene feels like, though I could be mistaken) tends to promise later revelation to me, and not just of the vague "there's something rotten in the state of Winterfell" kind of way. I think most readers have a sense of this [rottenness] already.

But I am very rusty, having not read the books in a couple of years (this thread has prompted my first reread), so I'm perfectly willing to accept that my gut feelings don't count for much.

[redriver]

Thanks! It is funny how people have such differing instincts as to how the North is going to unfold - a testament to GRRM's ability to muddy the waters I think. I think our fundamental disagreement is that you see the meeting with the HM as fundamentally a plot device - i.e. it doesn't really serve much of a character purpose. So you say:

I think this is a perfectly valid interpretation of the scene, and is quite plausibly correct. HOWEVER - to me it smells not only of plot advancement but also of character. My gut feeling is that for a primarily plot developing scene Theon didn't need to interact with the HM - especially not in this ambiguous way. He didn't even really need to be close to him - just to see someone out of place scuttling or striding around and then disappearing. Deliberate obfuscation (which is what this scene feels like, though I could be mistaken) tends to promise later revelation to me, and not just of the vague "there's something rotten in the state of Winterfell" kind of way. I think most readers have a sense of this [rottenness] already.

But I am very rusty, having not read the books in a couple of years (this thread has prompted my first reread), so I'm perfectly willing to accept that my gut feelings don't count for much.

You are very welcome to the threads,with two excellent posts.I agree with you that the HM encounter is both a character and narrative driver.I propound the theory that the HM is the Liddle,who has gained access to Winterfell as part of Mance's washerwomen circle,specifically as Myrtle.In answer to one of the questions you posed in your first post,I would expect validation or disproof to come from a Winterfell POV.

And to clarify,Martin hasn't said there will be no new POV's,he said there will be no new character POV's.This means there can be a POV from someone inside WF,after Theon and Jeyne jump,and I think there has to be.I had thought a Prologue could be used to explain the HM and events in WF,but given the existence of the Theon gift chapter,I don't think the WF secrets can be revealed before then.

This makes a Liddle POV a possibilty in my mind.He is a significant character,a mountain clan leader,who is not where he should be,and with all the motivation that's required.That aside,Mance or even one of the Boltons could become a POV,inter alia.

[Khal Shaggydog]

I agree with redriver - GRRM may be playing a bit of a language game in the "no new character POVs" - and hell - he could even just throw a random POV in there at some point and throw everyone off. Its his world, and we're all just reading/speculating/obsessing in it.

I don't, however, think that GRRM would make the HM (or include his scene in the first place), as Davos just for the purpose of plot movement. Yes, it simplifies things, consolidates a couple storylines, and conveniently gives us a POV in WF, but perhaps im just turned off to that idea because its too simple and neat. Logically, sure - that would be a great way to do something, like how in the show they combine Edric and Gendry, Willas and Loras, etc. But it just doesn't square with how GRRM creates. Based on his past track record, the HM will either never be mentioned again, or will be some other random person that has an incredibly involved backstory, is a secret Bolton/Stark, descendent of the Night King, the Rat King, and part-time dragonrider who went to camp with Bloodraven.

I still like Harwin :cool4:.

[alienarea]

I agree with redriver - GRRM may be playing a bit of a language game in the "no new character POVs" - and hell - he could even just throw a random POV in there at some point and throw everyone off. Its his world, and we're all just reading/speculating/obsessing in it.

I don't, however, think that GRRM would make the HM (or include his scene in the first place), as Davos just for the purpose of plot movement. Yes, it simplifies things, consolidates a couple storylines, and conveniently gives us a POV in WF, but perhaps im just turned off to that idea because its too simple and neat. Logically, sure - that would be a great way to do something, like how in the show they combine Edric and Gendry, Willas and Loras, etc. But it just doesn't square with how GRRM creates. Based on his past track record, the HM will either never be mentioned again, or will be some other random person that has an incredibly involved backstory, is a secret Bolton/Stark, descendent of the Night King, the Rat King, and part-time dragonrider who went to camp with Bloodraven.

I still like Harwin :cool4:.

Of course Harwin has an incredibly involved backstory, is a secret Bolton/Stark, descendent of the Night King, the Rat King, and part-time dragonrider who went to camp with Bloodraven. :agree:

[redriver]

Of course Harwin has an incredibly involved backstory, is a secret Bolton/Stark, descendent of the Night King, the Rat King, and part-time dragonrider who went to camp with Bloodraven. :agree:

I have certain sympathies with you,Alien.I know what it's like to have little to no support for a theory.

For the record,though, I'm not ruling Davos out,by any means.I tend away from it because it feels too Deus Ex Machina for me,and,in a narrative sense,disingenuous.We've had virtually all of his story from his own POV,and as a reader,I want the Skagos story to be told,not backfilled.

However,Martin doesn't go by what you or I want,so all options are open.Hey,if it turns out to be Davos,I'll be the first to buy you a beer,or whatever!

[Khal Shaggydog]

Harwin was from Winterfell, close to the Stark family, later a part of the BWB which later became Lady Stonehearts gang, and he knows Theon very well. So his own backstory is already there, as is his connection to the actual place of the encounter and the nature of his recognition and dealing with Theon. He could easily fit in with any of the Northmen making their way into WF (since he appears northern and speaks with a northern accent), and also knows who to align himself with and who to completely avoid. He could also have snuck into WF by some Bran route, and matches up with chaos happening in the stables. He also has a great motivation for attempting sabotage on behalf of the Starks from inside WF, and we have the BWB planting Tom O'Sevens in Riverrun in a similar manner. Its all been covered before, but he has a lot going for him.

[three-eyed monkey]

For me there is a timeline issue with Harwin. He was a favourite of mine for the HM, for many of the reasons Khal Shaggydog mentions, until someone reminded me that it seems he was with Lady Stoneheart when she almost hanged Brienne. Brienne could only describe him as a northman as she doesn't know Harwin, but I think we readers are better informed as to who this northman might be. IF it is Harwin, then I'm not sure the timeline would fit.

Hallis Mollen disappeared into the neck, last we heard. I think Reed and the Crannogmen would be more than happy to help Ned's bones home. Hallis knows Winterfell as well as Harwin and the conversation with Theon would fit, particularly the line "False is all you were," which sounds to me like someone who knew Theon from his time as Ned's ward. I'm optimistic that Ned's bones will be laid to rest in the crypts, c'mon George throw Ned a frickin bone, and so I think/hope Hallis is not too far away.

[alienarea]

I have certain sympathies with you,Alien.I know what it's like to have little to no support for a theory.

For the record,though, I'm not ruling Davos out,by any means.I tend away from it because it feels too Deus Ex Machina for me,and,in a narrative sense,disingenuous.We've had virtually all of his story from his own POV,and as a reader,I want the Skagos story to be told,not backfilled.

However,Martin doesn't go by what you or I want,so all options are open.Hey,if it turns out to be Davos,I'll be the first to buy you a beer,or whatever!

Thank you. Now let's head over to heresy and kill the Morrigan. ;-)

[Khal Shaggydog]

I think Hallis Mollen is a strong contender, but for some reason, I picture the guy who stuck it out with BWB being more of the "sneak into WF and start creating some chaos" type. Hallis definitely has his own reason and purpose for getting back to Winterfell, (broadly in service to Starks, specifically in bringing back Ned's bones), and his timeline is more wide open to interpretation. I feel that he will show up with Howland, however. Also, sneaking into WF with the box of bones would be a difficult feat, but not impossible.

I don't know if Harwin is the northman they are referencing when Brienne is with Stonheart. Unless confirmed, we're not sure. There are a number of northmen who are part of the BWB, there was at least 20 (or 30?) that Ned sent with Beric originally. I think that once it was communicated to Stoneheart that Arya left their company alive, the person she had closest to her at the time was sent after Arya, and that would be Harwin. Harwin would have caught wind that "Arya Stark" is being brought North to marry Roose's bastard, so there goes Harwin. Timeline is rough to nail down, but we're talking a resourceful northman, son of the master of horse, with a specific mission, and he just needed to tag along to any movement of troops north to get to WF. I guess we'll just have to see where he resurfaces.

[three-eyed monkey]

Also, sneaking into WF with the box of bones would be a difficult feat, but not impossible.

I found this part funny. I love the way you're trying to be diplomatic by adding the "but not impossible".

On a serious note, if it is Hallis then I think the bones are outside or perhaps even with Lady Dustin.

But you make a good case for Harwin, damn you. Every time I think it safe to cross a suspect off the list somebody gives me reason to put them back on. I guess that's what we get for trying to work out the identity of a hooded character who is not described and who says about three lines in a novel written by GRRM. Clearly the definition of madness.

[SerDenys]

Hello everyone, this is my first post here and I hope what I'm about to say hasn't been said hundreds times over, but I couldn't find it. It's a bit of a crackpot, so here we go:

I signed up because I wanted to make a pretty speculative comment on Davos as wearer of The Hood of Mystery.

Personally, I don't think it's Davos, because the few lines, the HM speaks would seem to be out of character for him, but however there is one side of this that hasn't been discussed:

It is never said that Davos has to go to Skagos. It is never explicitly stated, we just see that Mute throwing his dagger and never learn where it lands. Davos just thinks that they break their fast on human flesh there. However, Winterfell is not being known for eating human flesh - except that's the exact place where the Frey Pies are being served. What if Davos knew about Manderlys plan to do so and this is just GRRM leading us all into a wrong direction while subtly foreshadowing Davos as HM?

Feel free to discuss!

[three-eyed monkey]

Hello everyone, this is my first post here and I hope what I'm about to say hasn't been said hundreds times over, but I couldn't find it. It's a bit of a crackpot, so here we go:

Personally, I don't think it's Davos, because the few lines, the HM speaks would seem to be out of character for him, but however there is one side of this that hasn't been discussed:

It is never said that Davos has to go to Skagos. It is never explicitly stated, we just see that Mute throwing his dagger and never learn where it lands. Davos just thinks that they break their fast on human flesh there. However, Winterfell is not being known for eating human flesh - except that's the exact place where the Frey Pies are being served. What if Davos knew about Manderlys plan to do so and this is just GRRM leading us all into a wrong direction while subtly foreshadowing Davos as HM?

Feel free to discuss!

Welcome to the forum and nice first post.

I don't think Davos knew about the Frey pies, but I like the foreshadowing part.

[Aluminum Link]

I haven't seen mention of this before (so I'm either a clearsighted genius or a terrible embarrassment) but has anybody put any thought into how this particular puzzle is going to be solved in the next book? I mean specifically in storytelling terms.

If you go all the way back to the 1st and 2nd HM threads this was discussed a fair bit. Your analysis of the options available to the author is spot-on and I haven't see anyone propose a method of reveal that is even remotely as satisfying to the reader as seeing it from the HM's POV. This is one of the strongest arguments in favour of Davos IMO.

The other question that rarely gets discussed anymore (but again used to in the older threads) is the question of why GRRM was so careful to mask the HM's identity in the first place. I don't have time right now to rehash the details, but IMO all of the other options - including the GNC-based ones - are better served by GRRM (as he has done on a hundred other occasions in ASOIAF) giving us just enough info for the very astute reader to puzzle it out.

Finally, the other question that hasn't seen much airtime recently and I've yet to see a satisfying answer to is, why is Davos dropped 1/3 of the way through ADwD? If we're just going to pick up his journey to Skagos in TWoW, why was none of that included in ADwD? I suspect those chapters exist, were originally intended for ADwD, but contain spoilers for the upcoming battle of ice. When the Battle of Ice was moved to TWoW, so were they.

[Aluminum Link]

For the record,though, I'm not ruling Davos out,by any means.I tend away from it because it feels too Deus Ex Machina for me,and,in a narrative sense,disingenuous.

From wikipedia:

A deus ex machina "god from the machine" is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem is suddenly and abruptly resolved, with the contrived and unexpected intervention of some new event, character, ability, or object.

Obviously this is a subjective thing, but I don't see how you can categorize the Davos option as Deus Ex Machina. It's a linkage or convergence of two storylines, plain and simple. There's nothing contrived or new about it.

We've had virtually all of his story from his own POV,and as a reader,I want the Skagos story to be told,not backfilled.

You and many others presuppose the magnitude and direction of said story. If there's one thing GRRM isn't, it's predictable. Although one could argue that he is predictable in one sense. If the readers want it, he tends to go in the opposite direction...

[redriver]

From wikipedia:

Obviously this is a subjective thing, but I don't see how you can categorize the Davos option as Deus Ex Machina. It's a linkage or convergence of two storylines, plain and simple. There's nothing contrived or new about it.

You and many others presuppose the magnitude and direction of said story. If there's one thing GRRM isn't, it's predictable. Although one could argue that he is predictable in one sense. If the readers want it, he tends to go in the opposite direction...

Yes,it's subjective,I think there are degrees of what feels like DEM to the reader.I suppose that if Davos is the HM,it depends on how his narrative is handled.But we leave him on a tantalizing cliffhanger in White Harbour.I take your point about the Davos chapters being curtailed due to potential spoiling of the Battle of Winter plot.

As I said to Alienarea,no major surprise if it turns out to be Davos,and congratulations if it is.

On your final point,I made it myself later in the post you quoted.

[Yakman]

It's not Davos. Davos is going to Skagos - and when he comes back, he would go directly to Stannis.

Davos wouldn't bother to stop to talk to Theon EVEN IF HE KNEW HIM b/c Davos is about the mission. You might say, oh, Davos is going to talk to Manderly. Okay, but he still wouldn't talk to Theon, wouldn't recognize him, and WOULD NOT TALK LIKE THAT.

It's not Davos. Davos is a plainspoken guy. He doesn't talk like the Hooded Man.

I don't think it's Harwin, since Harwin is apparently still with the BwB at the end of Feast. He's loyal to the BwB-Stoneheart now, not the Starks.

Hollis Mullen it might be... but wouldn't Hollis Mullen just stab Theon right there and be done with it? Who would know? Who would blame him? But Hollis is such a minor character that having someone with the dramatic impact of the Hooded Man being Hollis would be a bit of a let down. Same with the Glovers.

I am almost 99% confident that the Hooded Man is the Blackfish. He's come to Winterfell to get Arya Stark. He speaks like the Hooded Man, with big grandiose words, he'd recognize Theon, and he has a reason for being in Winterfell stabbing people.

According to this timeline: https://docs.google....Fha1ZfNUE#gid=8 there is about a month and a half between the Blackfish escaping Riverrun and the murders beginning in Winterfell. More than enough time for the Blackfish to get North.

Yes, I get that some people really want to see a POV about what happens when the crap hits the fan in Winterfell, but we just might not get one, or we'll just see what happens afterwards from Asha or Theon's perspective.

[Khal Shaggydog]

I found this part funny. I love the way you're trying to be diplomatic by adding the "but not impossible".

On a serious note, if it is Hallis then I think the bones are outside or perhaps even with Lady Dustin.

But you make a good case for Harwin, damn you. Every time I think it safe to cross a suspect off the list somebody gives me reason to put them back on. I guess that's what we get for trying to work out the identity of a hooded character who is not described and who says about three lines in a novel written by GRRM. Clearly the definition of madness.

Not so much "diplomacy" as "I really have no idea and its my best version of a guess". And as to your last point - completely agree, and I can easily envision GRRM laughing in his cups when he realizes how many threads we've spent on a "character" that might have just been a simple diversionary note from the wilding-killers...

[Lord Of Lite]

I'm take a stab at who the Hooded Man is. I believe him to be Cotter Pyke. He would have knowledge of those now lodged at Castle Black. He has probably killed all the men who manned the boats and destroyed them. I'd say that he is the mole for Roose Bolton at the Wall. When Theon sees him, he is probably headed inside to report to Roose Bolton that all is done. Mel has seen the truth of it in her flames. There are no ships. The message to Jon was meant to draw him away and leave the Wall vulnerable.