Great Northern Conspiracy Problem

[The Frost Wolf]

The Northern Lords have a huge respect for the NW? When was that? When the Watch begged for help, when even Mormont was still alive? Yes, the response was HUGE there!

And I think we've enough with reading how one boy king likes putting the seals on the letters most of all, no need to repeat it with another useless boy king. Boy kings are puppets. The North needs better than a puppet. If you've not noticed yet, the next long night is there. The only thing Rickon is capable of is crawling closer to Osha when he's shivering from the cold.

Why would a lord force a man to take the black? That's just going to piss off the guy, piss off his family, reduce your strength as a lord and be morally wrong. Not every lord forces his subjects and sworn men to do things against their will, so they wouldn't want to force men into the Watch. Ned is a Northern Lord and his own brother is in the Watch, of course he has respect for it! But does he make Jory or Ser Rodrik or Wyl or Heward or any of the other Winterfell men take the Black? No! Cause that would be immoral. Just cause they don't send men doesn't mean they don't have respect for the institution. Ned even mentions in aGoT that he would march Winterfell's swords North to deal with the Wildlings but that doesn't mean forcing all his men to take the black, he still has respect for it.

[rystine]

Why would a lord force a man to take the black? That's just going to piss off the guy, piss off his family, reduce your strength as a lord and be morally wrong. Not every lord forces his subjects and sworn men to do things against their will, so they wouldn't want to force men into the Watch. Ned is a Northern Lord and his own brother is in the Watch, of course he has respect for it! But does he make Jory or Ser Rodrik or Wyl or Heward or any of the other Winterfell men take the Black? No! Cause that would be immoral. Just cause they don't send men doesn't mean they don't have respect for the institution.

Ned even mentions in aGoT that he would march Winterfell's swords North to deal with the Wildlings but that doesn't mean forcing all his men to take the black, he still has respect for it.

You kind of answered your own question there.

They don't need to force men to join the NW in order to support the NW. Yet the Northern lords did neither.

[Dead Wolf]

You kind of answered your own question there.

They don't need to force men to join the NW in order to support the NW. Yet the Northern lords did neither.

They were dealing with a war to the south and the succession after the RW

[DreamSongs]

Manderly is going to do what he can to get a Stark in the seat of Winterfell, boy or not. If I recall from my reading, Manderly feels that he owed Ned Stark some kind of personal debt. If he suspects Bran or Rickon is alive, he will do what he can to protect any Stark heir until they old enough to rule. And that means if there is only Jon left, then so be it.

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

Jon Snow is also a boy. And if they want Jon, why the hell does Manderly give one shit about Rickon. It's not even clear they want a king. It might actually be they just want a Stark in Winterfel, and that they will make the decision whether he is a king or a Lord later.

Jon has command expeirience and is considered a man grown in his society. And I hope why Manderly would care about Rickon was not a serious question. The son of his murdererd liege lord and brother to his murdered king was within his grasp he would try to rescue him no matter what.

[rystine]

They were dealing with a war to the south and the succession after the RW

Wow, really? I must have totally missed that.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

if the northern lords are planning on drawing jon south to make him there king in place of stannis, why is wyman manderly trying to retrieve rickon? the only explanation that i can remember so far is that they plan to make Rickon Lord of Winterfell and Jon KitN, which to me isnt very convincing as a king needs a seat of power, and a castle from which to rule, and bannermen of his own, and jon would have none of those.

I don't see how this is a problem and it is in fact explained in the GNC threads. Rickon, as a male Stark, is enough to trump fake Arya in the immediate term. He can also act as Jon's heir.

As for Jon's "bannermen," who on earth do you think all these northerners (and wildlings) are?

[BlackStark]

I don't see how this is a problem and it is in fact explained in the GNC threads. Rickon, as a male Stark, is enough to trump fake Arya in the immediate term. He can also act as Jon's heir.

As for Jon's "bannermen," who on earth do you think all these northerners (and wildlings) are?

Rickon would trump the fake Arya but he would also trump a legitimized Jon as well, no? With Manderley knowledge of Rickon's existence, I don't see why he (or any other Northern lord) would back Jon over a true born heir. You say Rickon can served as Jon's heir but what happens when Jon has kids of his own...will he complete the usurping of his "brother's" birthright placing his children above Rickon?

Outside of the wildings and possibly the Karstarks, what base of support does Jon really have, especially if Rickon is going to be the Stark in Winterfell and has the stronger claim to the title "King in the North"?

[falcotron]

Rickon would trump the fake Arya but he would also trump a legitimized Jon as well, no?

Why?

The only case I remember reading anywhere in the books about a legitimized bastard's place in the lineage was Daemon Blackfyre. It doesn't sound like people knew exactly what the "law" was in that case, and the whole thing was tainted by the possibility that Daeron II might have been a bastard of someone other than the King, and ultimately it was only settled by war.

Every other legitimized bastard we've heard about has been in a case where there were no heirs--generally the entire reason a bastard was legitimized in the first place.

So, what makes anyone believe that there's some law or custom that would unambiguously place Bran and Rickon above Jon—or, for that matter, the other way around? They would both have competing claims, and it would come down to an agreement between them or a war of succession.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Rickon would trump the fake Arya but he would also trump a legitimized Jon as well, no? With Manderley knowledge of Rickon's existence, I don't see why he (or any other Northern lord) would back Jon over a true born heir. You say Rickon can served as Jon's heir but what happens when Jon has kids of his own...will he complete the usurping of his "brother's" birthright placing his children above Rickon?

Outside of the wildings and possibly the Karstarks, what base of support does Jon really have, especially if Rickon is going to be the Stark in Winterfell and has the stronger claim to the title "King in the North"?

It depends on how the will is worded (as in, if Robb thinks Bran and Rickon are dead, he wouldn't include them at all because why would he?) and on how the northern lords choose to interpret the legitimization. Given that Rickon is a child and Jon is an adult with leadership experience, I don't think it's implausible for them to choose Jon over Rickon, even if it's just to make Jon a regent or placeholder. Boy lords are the bane of any house and all that.

[BlackStark]

It depends on how the will is worded (as in, if Robb thinks Bran and Rickon are dead, he wouldn't include them at all because why would he?) and on how the northern lords choose to interpret the legitimization. Given that Rickon is a child and Jon is an adult with leadership experience, I don't think it's implausible for them to choose Jon over Rickon, even if it's just to make Jon a regent or placeholder. Boy lords are the bane of any house and all that.

If the Northern lords were present when the will was made, is it too much of a leap to think they were privy to Robb's rationale for legitimizing Jon and making Jon his heir (especially given the unprecedented act he was committing (ie trying to circumvent the oath of a sworn brother of the Night's Watch))? They know that the only reason Jon was made Robb's heir is because Bran and Rickon were presumed dead, Arya and Benjen were lost presumed dead, and Sansa had been forced into a Lannister marriage. Knowing this, do you really they would overlook a trueborn heir of Ned Stark because of words on a piece of will based on Robb's mistaken belief? You're right...Jon is an adult with leadership experience but the result of his leadership was him laying in the snow, bleeding out after being stabbed by his own men (I would also note at the time Robb made his will Jon had no leadership experience so that played no role in him being the heir). How are the Northern lords going to view Jon? Another legitimized bastard to follow the maniacal Ramsay Bolton? The man that opened the gates of the Wall to the enemies and raiders of the North, the Wildings? The man who broke his oath to the Night's Watch? It is not as though they know Jon well or that they have a reason to hold him in high esteem. He was just the last of Ned's sons...the last living Stark male...but with the re-appearance of Rickon, that is no longer the case. Boy lords may be the bane of any house but given a choice I think they would prefer Rickon to Jon...for the same reason Tommen was preferable to Joffrey, in their eyes he would be more manageable. If age was a consideration, neither Bran nor Rickon would have been Robb's heirs in the first place.

I find the possibility of a Great Northern Conspiracy to be very likely...I don't think that Jon is the goal.

[bemused]

I agree with Apple..

And I do think ,in such a case , they'd go for Jon..not only is he now an experienced adult , but Rickon is still a young child ( How old is he , now ?5 - 6 ?.. he was 3 when the Wo5K began. ) Since winter is notoriously hard on the very young and the old , and Rickon is still years away from being able to procreate, it would be a very risky move to install him as Lord of Winterfell.

ETA; BlackStark .. I can't agree with..almost anything you've said :)

I will just point out.. Jon has not broken his vows . People's sympathies will not be with the handfull of conspirators who tried to assassinate him, especially when it becomes apparent that they were also acting in the interests of the Lannisters

Reasonable men ( including Mormont ,who told Sam the watch had forgotten who was the real enemy) recognize the common humanity of the wildlings and will be quite willing to accept the extra manpower..so long as it's orderly. Jon has succeeded in getting the free folk to agree to certain terms and boundaries. Before Jon , they would have just swept through taking what they wanted.. this is why , until now , the northmen considered them enemies. But now, they come as refugees, willing to earn their way, not raiders or invaders. This will make a huge difference.

This accomplishment of Jon's alone, will have a very positive effect on what esteem men will hold him in. Flint and Norrey are bound to be bringing back a favourable report after their trip to the wall.

It's pretty laughable to try to equate Jon with Ramsay. Ramsay is hated, not because he's a bastard , but because of his behaviour... Lady Hornwood , his "hunts" , flaying people, etc. No-one hates Lord Hornwood's bastard .. and there are many examples , north and south, of recognized bastards being accorded respect... OTOH, Jon is known to have held the wall , preventing the wildlings breaching it and coming through as invaders.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I find the possibility of a Great Northern Conspiracy to be very likely...I don't think that Jon is the goal.

While the theory in general works whether it's Jon or Rickon, everything in the overall premise points to Jon being the focus. The mountain clan leaders showing up at the Wall for Alys's wedding, Alys choosing to go to Jon, the Blackfish protesting too much about Jon to Jaime, Riverrun men choosing to take the black, the fact that we know Robb legitimized Jon and named him his heir. Everyone seems to be operating on the basis of Jon being the focus.

[BlackStark]

While the theory in general works whether it's Jon or Rickon, everything in the overall premise points to Jon being the focus. The mountain clan leaders showing up at the Wall for Alys's wedding, Alys choosing to go to Jon, the Blackfish protesting too much about Jon to Jaime, Riverrun men choosing to take the black, the fact that we know Robb legitimized Jon and named him his heir. Everyone seems to be operating on the basis of Jon being the focus.

Is Manderley (and possibly Lady Dustin) operating under a different conspiracy then?

[Myrish Swamp Thing]

Rickon being a kid is actually a point in his favour from the conspirators' point of view: they get to install a regent.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Is Manderley (and possibly Lady Dustin) operating under a different conspiracy then?

Nope, same conspiracy. Hence Manderly's word play with "liege lord." The songs that Manderly calls for at Roose's wedding are a big hint here: Brave Danny Flint, The Night That Ended and The Rat Cook. Taken together, they can be read almost as a code.

Brave Danny Flint: A girl pretending to be someone she isn't

The Rat Cook: I've spilled blood under your nose; Frey Pie

The Night That Ended: My side's going to win

And of course, all three are songs of the Night's Watch.

[BlackStark]

Nope, same conspiracy. Hence Manderly's word play with "liege lord." The songs that Manderly calls for at Roose's wedding are a big hint here: Brave Danny Flint, The Night That Ended and The Rat Cook. Taken together, they can be read almost as a code.

Brave Danny Flint: A girl pretending to be someone she isn't

The Rat Cook: I've spilled blood under your nose; Frey Pie

The Night That Ended: My side's going to win

And of course, all three are songs of the Night's Watch.

Then I will repeat the question asked before...why seek out Rickon then? If Jon is the goal, adding Rickon to the mix only complicates issues now and in the future.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Then I will repeat the question asked before...why seek out Rickon then? If Jon is the goal, adding Rickon to the mix only complicates issues now and in the future.

And I will repeat the answer I already gave before: Rickon in the immediate term will be enough to trump the fake Arya, and he is still Jon's heir. He's valuable even if he's not the primary focus. You might as well ask why Cersei and Tyrion bothered to fight over control of Tommen and Myrcella.

[BlackStark]

And I will repeat the answer I already gave before: Rickon in the immediate term will be enough to trump the fake Arya, and he is still Jon's heir. He's valuable even if he's not the primary focus. You might as well ask why Cersei and Tyrion bothered to fight over control of Tommen and Myrcella.

But Tommen and Myrcella never represented a threat to Joffrey, Rickon does because the throne is rightfully his (assuming Bran never leaves the Land of always winter)...his claim is stronger than the fake Arya for sure but it is also stronger than Jon's, irregardless of what a piece of paper says.

[sertravisredbeard]

I think that all of the Great Northern Conspirators are simply trying to cover all their bases. The problem of who will rule between Rickon, Jon, Bran, or Sansa or Arya if they show up would be a welcome situation to figure out for them. The immediate goal of most of the Northern houses is to get rid of the Boltons and Freys. It doesn't matter who's legitimized in what will, who is the "official" heir of Ned Stark or will anyone support Jon permanently leaving the Night's Watch to serve as regent or King in the North or whatever.

All of these Northern lords know Winter is Coming, and certain things need to be set right. Manderly is obviously a long-term planner. Sure, he might know that Jon got legitimized, but he also knows where Rickon might be. Attempting to accomplish more than one task at the same time does not mean he'll argue with the mountain clans or anyone else about which Stark officially needs to be in charge. Wyman and the other conspirators know that anything can go wrong at any moment, so getting more than one Stark kid back to Winterfell is probably a good idea. They can figure out the "true" succession later.