Gilbert Green

Aeron will sit the Seastone Chair. Because when he considers who should sit the Seastone Chair, it never occurs to him to press any claim of his own. And because of the irony that those who don't seek power are the most fit to rule (see also Aegon V). And because he has a decent relationship with Asha, and will support her plan to settle Sea Dragon Point. And because no godless man may sit the Seastone Chair. With Falia as his queen. Because he obviously digs her. Aeron was cut from the show. Which is why this could not happen in the show.

Rhaegar chose Elia because he suspected she was a by-blow of Aerys. Rhaegar realized he was not Aerys' son, did not unite the lines of Aerys and Rhaella, and hence could not be TPTWP. Elia's mother gave birth to Elia a "month early" after rushing home from King's Landing. So she was likely a daughter of Aerys. If a son of Rhaella married a daughter of Aerys, the wood's witch prophesy might be fulfilled. This was an early formative sexual experience for Aerys, and culminated in his fetish for the wives of noblemen. Disclaimer: Most of the above is only theory.

Aerys did not choose Elia. Rhaegar did. Aerys, like Viserys after him, was a blood purist. He wanted Rhaegar to marry someone of suitably noble status, and Valyrian heritage. That was the point of Steffon Baratheon's mission. To find someone suitable. The failure of that mission gave Rhaegar options. Aerys's "smells Dornish" remark about Rhaella is a pretty clear indication that Elia was not an ideal choice in his opinion. I suppose, being king, Aerys must have consented, however reluctantly. I guess various persons must have wore him down by explaining the political advantages of the union.

Brienne has been hanged by Stoneheart. Her spirit will appear in dreams and visions as a humanistic embodiment of the god-hood (Maiden), alongside Ned (Father), Catelyn (Mother) and Robb (Warrior) and who knows who else. Meanwhile, her corpse will walk the earth, inhabited by an evil spirit. It will wear the Hound helm, be mistaken for Sandor, and probably fight Robert Strong. It will hunt and slay kingslayers: Jaime, Gregor, and Stannis. It maybe eventually go after Sansa and try to kill her. Which will confuse Sansa, and distract her from guessing the true identity of another tall mystery knight in her general vicinity.

They did it. You are trying to argue that because liars are sometimes exposed, therefore deceptions are never perpetrated. And how would such deceptions normally be exposed? it is not as though they have genetic testing. Viserys is not planning to marry Dany's half-Dothraki daughter. Even if Dany is real, he would not do that. He is a blood purist. Viserys is impatient and he wants his army NOW. This is what led to his death. Remember? And you think he should be worrying about whether some half-Dothraki barbarian will be a "rival claimant" 15-20 years down the line. No-one in this thread has hypothesized that the real Dany died at birth on Dragonstone.

I don't suppose there is any plan for any putative ally to find out the truth. It would be Illyrio's plan, as far as I know. His, and that of Mad Viserys, who he no doubt talked into it. "The Prisoner of Zenda"? And those were the good guys. Oops. Sorry. That's not history. That's just a colorful and imaginative work of fiction. Well ... so is this.

Right. Fake Arya inherits Winterfell based on her supposed genetic inheritance. Does not mean that sneaky people cannot do sneaky things. Sure, it's scandalous. When people find out about it. None who make such schemes plan to be found out. Even so, some people figuring things out did not stop Joffrey from taking the crown, nor Tommen afterwards. I don't think Viserys or his likely loyalists plan to marry a Dothraki barbarian descended from Dany, even if he or she does have a real Targ mother. It's not like Viserys intends to marry Fake Dany himself. So you're saying that if Dany were real, Viserys would have married her himself rather than selling her to a barbarian for an army? You may have a point. How is it "literally the opposite"? Under the Fake Dany theory, Viserys is not planing to use Fake Dany to continue his own line. If he were, he probably would have married her himself, being the blood purist that he is. Dany even notices the apparent inconsistency. And of course Illyrio doesn't plan to use Fake Dany to continue his own line either.

Your math seems off. 13 minus 5 equals 8 years. Not 10 years. Also, it is known that marriages are useful for forging political and military alliances. You do not need to know exactly who she will marry. Illyrio is the patient one. And it is he who complains that Viserys almost spoiled "years" of planning, by trying to deflower her before the wedding.

Depends on what "Lemongate is true" means. Originally it just meant that the lemon tree discrepancy was a clue to something. For years, the counterargument was that there was no discrepancy and/or it did not point to anything significant. But GRRM seems to have shot that one down. A fan's theory can be true even if a fan does not guess the point of a theory. My own theory is that Dany is the daughter of Rhaegar and one the the Three Heads of the Dragon. This might be true, even if I don't guess the "point". But here's my guess. This story is about the icy and fiery forces of death (others, ice wights, fire wights, dragons, red prophets) versus the icy and fiery humans (mainly Starks and Targaryens). The forces of death seek to pit humans against each other, massacring each other in devastating wars, devastating crops on the verge of a long winter, and generally preparing the way for advancing zombie hordes. This strategy includes pitting Starks against Targaryens. Dany has been raised to believe the Starks are her enemies, and that it is her destiny to fight a war of conquest. The twist will be that Dany originated with the union of Stark and Targaryen. She must remember who she is. She must join forces with her Targaryen siblings, and also with her Stark family. She must refrain from devastating Westeros with dragon wars on the eve of winter. Because the lone wolf dies but the pack survives. If she gets caught up in the war hatred, the dragon within her will devour her, and she will be left howling forever alone in the darkness. I worked a few quotes from the book into the above paragraph. Anyway, it is just a guess.

I am convinced that Doran & Mellario, Varys & Illyrio, and the Blackfyres are allies. They tried to at least make use of Viserys; hence the princess-for-a-barbarian-horde scheme. As for Tyrosh, there are enough mentions that we can at least conclude that Doran tried to cultivate them as allies. What grudges does Tyrosh have against the Iron Throne?

He did not (as far as we know) change the location of the city but only its name. The locations of these cities were published years later, after the names had long been decided. Well, he has the worldbuilding bug. He wants us to suspend disbelief in the world he has created, and for that he wants Essos to have more than one city. And of course, he might have mentioned Tyrosh for other reasons too, which we are all free to guess at. Perfectly possible.

It still impacts the family honor. Perhaps they regard Drogo and his hordes as expendable as well, if they intend use him only for a few years before he finds out he has been sold false goods. Sure. It's his family honor being squandered by these others, and he may be mad enough not to care; and they may not care either. Could be. It's an interesting point. Worth putting on a list of arguable clues. But it is not necessary for his real sister to be alive for this point to have weight. It could work either way. If he thought she was a real targ, he would have wanted to keep her blood pure. But since she is not (as far as he knows) a real Targ, he is perfectly happy to sell her to a barbarian.

I agree that Dany is treated as dispensable. But that wedding was very public. It affects the family honor. Nobody is going to want to marry your sister if you publicly play tricks like that. But Viserys might be mad enough to do it anyway, and as for Illyrio, he might not care; as he probably regards Viserys as dispensable as well.

Another tidbit of info is that, according to Cersei, his face is broad, or at least broader (and comelier) than that of Aurane Waters. Unclear how this compares to Viserys. Viserys' face is described as "pinched", which I suppose does not necessarily mean it is not naturally broad -- maybe just his gauntness affecting his features. Certain illustrations do depict Rhaegar as having a broader face than Viserys, but I am unsure how much this is based on guidance from GRRM.

Yes, I don't think it is a critical issue what happened to the original child. GRRM is perfectly capable of supplying whatever details when the time comes. She could be alive or she could be dead. It could go either way, and I think the Fake Arya plot illustrates this. Rhaella's history is the main reason for thinking the child died. It was what happened to most of Rhaella's children. But the laws of probability don't limit the options of an author, if he has a reason to want her alive. I am amused by the notion of Wylla Manderly being the "real Dany", because of the irony of Wylla being so rabidly pro-Stark. Also, green hair not as normal for White Harbor as it is for Tyrosh. This idea feels wrong to me. If one pays with the same coin twice, someone is going to eventually know they have been betrayed. Maybe both parties will feel betrayed because of the doubt sowed. It is like debasing your own currency by printing money, only worse. It seems far more likely that the secret was meant to be kept forever. In the Fake Arya plot, for instance, there is no plan to capture the real Arya and use her a second time. She is merely presumed dead. They turned to Baby Aegon's cousin, Quentyn Martell, who is also a Martell/Valyrian mix due to Blackfyre heritage. They sent Frog to the Yronwoods as "Quentyn"; and sent Quentyn to Norvos as "Young Griff" to stay with his Blackfyre mother Lemore/Mellario. The Lysene pillow house story (whether true or not) dates back to grandpa Illyrio and grandma Serra. Just my own guess.

So what? Why would he necessarily find a single counter-example? Do you think that black haired families don't exist in the real world? Do you really think this is scientifically inexplicable? GRRM never discussed genes at all. He said that the black hair itself was dominant in the family. This is explicable if most members of the family historically (it does not need to be ALL) have had had no recessive blond genes. When blonds marry blondes you tend to get blonds. I guess Lannister gentlemen prefer blondes.

The reason is because noble girls are routinely used as playing pieces for the forging of military and political alliances, and are well known to be useful for this purpose. Which is how Dany (whether real or fake) was in fact used. But it is not necessary to have a specific husband in mind when the scheme was first formulated. See also the Fake Arya scheme for a similar logic in action. But I forget. Had a husband already been decided upon when Fake Arya first began her training? You obtain a replacement child at the age of 3, 4, or 5. After a suitable period of training, you reintroduce her to the world at 6, 7 or 8. Not much chance of hair and eye color changing much after this point. And if anyone wants to know where she's been, you say she's been in hiding to protect her from the hired knives of King Robert. It's hugely more feasible than the Fake Arya scheme. Not only do you work with a younger and more malleable child, but you may actually stand assured that the real child isn't going to suddenly show up, because you may have secret-but-sure knowledge that the real child is dead. And far fewer people are going to be in the position to say "Wait, that's not her; that's actually so-and-so." About a thousand times less flimsy than the Fake Arya plot. But I think this subplot, involving a minor character, is a clue and foreshadowing of something more major.

So. He searches back 120 years, and finds TWO (count 'em) TWO examples. Maybe a few others. In the case of the Baratheon maid who birthed 4 black-haired Lannisters, it could be that she had some recessive blond gene, and never passed it on simply by luck of the draw. But after 4 children, the odds are sufficiently against this that the more likely explanation is that, like King Robert, she simply was not a carrier of the recessive blond gene. But this explanation need only apply to her and to King Robert, not every Baratheon that ever lived. The other examples are presumably less striking. We don't even know how many children they had. Some of these COULD have been carriers of recessive blond gene(s). But only having one or two black-haired kids would not be enough to rule that out. And as for the many Baratheons who married black-haired spouses, some of them COULD have been carriers of recessive blond genes, but never had a chance to pass to have the gene manifest even if it was passed on. Cousin marriages. Also, has it been that consistent? You just quoted me an example of 4 black-haired Lannisters.

I still don't understand what you are saying. Yes, of course it is true that if you followed the Baratheon family tree far enough you would eventually get to blonds. You would also eventually get to Targaryens as well. Was the contrary ever claimed? Ultimately this is about a man from a predomonantly black-haired family who just happens to have only dominant black haired genes. King Robert is the one who is a man-whore, and the one from whom most of Jon Arryn's evidence is derived. Why is this impossible?

How many Baratheons in history have boinked a hundred blonde prostitutes and had a hundred black haired bastards? This is ultimately about Robert, not all the other Baratheons. But, as you would expect in a person with no recessive blonde genes, most of his immediate ancestors had black hair too. A bit confused as to why we are talking about the show.

Okay. Like what? I agree that a little girl was born on Dragonstone during a storm, and was given the name "Daenaerys" and fled with Ser Darry. But AFAIK we are entirely dependent on Viserys for concluding that the Dany we know is that same little girl. The only "independent" confirmation of this, that I know of, is the HOTU prophesies, in which the mystic whisperers call her "child of storm" among other things. But guess what? The child born at the TOJ was also born during a storm. Funny coincidence, that. I do find it easy to believe. I actually support the theory. But for god's sakes, if I were a denialist, I could easily dismiss every argument. Sandor is not the only big man in the world, nor, I am sure, the only big man in the "geographical vicinity of his last known location". Nor is he the only man with a limp. A war is on, fer chrissakes.

Which one is the geneticist? Because the guy who said that there is no such thing IRL as a black haired man who can only have black haired children is wrong, AFAIK. It does not matter how the recessive traits have been brought to the fore. Once they HAVE been brought to the fore, they can become dormant through outbreeding, but inbreeding tends to perpetuate them. Once a recessive gene manifests, there is usually no dominant gene left to overwhelm it, except via outbreeding. Otherwise, it probably would not manifest in the first place. In Aerys' case the madness has already been brought to the fore. Does not matter where the recessive gene(s) came from. I would not expect that. Perfectly possible. Incest promotes mental and physical defects because if promotes recessive genes. It does not matter where if the recessive gene(s) come from the Martells or not. Madness is a Targ trait not because there is a specific Targ madness gene. Madness is a Targ trait because those Targs do too much incest. Any family who did too much incest would face a huge variety of mental and physical defects, derived from all sorts of different recessive genes. It is possible you will do that. Whatever happens, not every fan will be happy. I guess you will feel no temptation to congratulate those who guessed correctly? And maybe take a second look at how they guessed? If he ever finishes, I also reserve the right to say that it was a load of crap, when all was said and done. But I also fully intend to congratulate those who guessed his direction better than I did.

No. Barristan said signs of madness were there in childhood. Yes, the seeds of madness were exacerbated by humiliation. But the same was true of his father. He was never forced to fend for himself on the streets. You are taking that "beggar king" stuff far too literally. Only evidence. Not proof. Only a point worth mentioning. Especially since Bonifer was tall. So arguing with the text is fine when you do it. I got it. And which expert said this? Aenys I probably would have died without a dragon egg in his cradle. There are the supernatural advantages of a dragon bond. But Aerys and Rhaella did not have dragons, nor viable dragon eggs to put in the cradles of their sickly infants who died. And if Aerys had had a dragon, he might have been less like Aerys and more like Maegor (at worst) or more like Aenys I (at best). Aegon and his sisters were the products of outbreeding. Their parents were not siblings; or even half-siblings, nor even uncle and niece; first cousins at worst, and probably not even that. Right. His parents were not mad. Right. His parents were not mad either. No. They have one mad parent, and one sickly parent. I'm not ruling this out. But in this context, this only proves you can deny anything in the text you don't like, while saying others should not be allowed to indulge in similar speculations. Dude! We are told that Sandor is DEAD. His dead corpse was BURIED. A pile of rocks was placed over his grave to prevent wild animals from digging up his CORPSE. The gravedigger theory absolutely DOES contradict what the text tells us. And I agree that we should be able to doubt what the text says. But why is it one standard for theories you like and another for theories you don't like? Seems to me the only kind of standards you have are double-standards. We can distrust the Elder Brother, but are not allowed to distrust what Viserys tells a little girl that he is using as a disposable pawn in his mad schemes? What gives?

It just says "taller", and there was no need for measuring tape to see the difference. When did I imply he was sickly in childhood? Yes, as a child he was healthy, as compared to Rhaella's other miscarriages, stillbirths and crib-deaths (talk about faint praise). As a young adult, he was already gaunt and pinched. So he was hardly as robust as King Aerys, much less Rhaegar.. When did I say "complete clones"? Okay. But you're limiting yourself to physical differences. And if you go beyond that, Rhaegar was the last dragon and Viserys was less than the shadow of a snake. How do we know that? The only example I've seen is the "seed is strong" thing, which in fact tends to show the opposite. That's not the issue. The issue is whether, if you already have a congenital defect (whether madness or something else) and you marry your already-inbred full sibling, how likely are you to pass on that defect? And the answer is, pretty damned likely. Add, if you actually try to reproduce, and produce instead a long string of stillbirths, miscarriages, and crib-deaths instead, and pass on your congenital madness to the only reasonably healthy child you manage to create, the odds don't get any better.. Viserys I's parents were not mad. But Viserys I did die of a burst belly, just like his dad before him. Viserys II's parents were not siblings. Uncle/niece is bad, but it is only half as bad a full-sibling incest. Also the only evidence that Viserys II is Daemon's son is that Viserys' mother was married to Daemon. You can take that for what it is worth, given their history. But more importantly, neither of Viserys II's parents were mad. I never suggested that double-inbreeding had any overwhelming likelihood to produce madness from sane parents. But Aerys was not sane. Assuming Aerion's madness were congenital, how likely would Aerion be to pass on his madness if he married his own sister. In fact, it would have to be worse than that. Aerion would have to sire a child on his own sister, and then sire a child on the daughter of that union, to match the level of risk of marrying one's own doubly-inbred sister. The only evidence that Aerion's madness was congenital is that his brother also had dragon dreams, which did not in his brother's case manifest itself as madness, though it did lead to drunkenness. But Aerys' madness and his son's madness seem to be very similar. To that, at least, seems to be hereditary. Not with certainty, no. If you want certainty, I got nothing for you. But by that standard, you cannot prove that Sandor is the gravedigger either.

Jaime, if he is Aerys' son, would be Aerys's son via outbreeding. Viserys would be Aerys's son via inbreeding, and is therefore far closer to being a doubly-inbred clone of his inbred father.