The Vanguard

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

... or some obscure and very distant Blackfyre descendant (as he would be a Blackfyre through the female line

I actually believed that for some time, but I realized it made no sense for the plot. As I said, even if he is "biologically" a Blackfyre, it wouldn't matter because everyone would think that he's a Targaryen. And when everyone thinks he's a Targaryen, him being a Blackfyre descendant would be pointless, even in the eyes of the GC.

I completely agree with the rest.

12 hours ago, Aebram said:

If Young Griff is just some random kid, then what's the point of the whole conspiracy?

We know that Connington was with the boy for close to 12 years; and someone, probably illyrio, had him for about 5 years before that. This whole project, to raise and train him to be a good king, is extremely difficult, expensive, and risky. What would be the point of all that, just to put some random kid on the Iron Throne?

Varys gets himself a competent, diligent, wise king. This is what he desires for the realm. And Illyrio gets himself an ally in Westeros (the strongest person in Westeros, actually) that can fill his coffers. I stated "He could still be Illyrio's son, and that still wouldn't require Serra to be a Blackfyre or a Brightflame." So maybe he is actually trying to put his son on the Iron Throne, with his best bud Varys training him to be a good king.

I have a personal theory that GRRM himself has no idea what to make Young Griff. He probably did consider making him a Blackfyre at some point. As many here know, one of the earliest drafts of ADWD had Illyrio mentioning a "sword", which many thought to be Blackfyre. But he later removed that. Many Blackfyre theory supporters think that GRRM removed it because it made Aegon being a Blackfyre too obvious. I personally think he removed it because even he doesn't know what to make YG.

About your explanation for "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd"

This would indicate Aegon would find support in Westeros, but why state that "a cloth dragon"? The cloth there probably means a fake. Now, "mummer's dragon" itself is not a good argument. Because Aegon could still be a true Targaryen, and could still be mummer's (Varys's) dragon. But "cloth dragon" probably symbolizes a fake dragon.

About Serra

If Serra was a descendant of Saera Targaryen, she and Aegon (assuming he's true) would be like tenth cousins or something. I don't know who my tenth cousins are. Heck, I don't even know who my third cousins are. The random stranger walking down the street could be my tenth cousin. Even you could be my tenth cousin. I'm not denying the parallelisms between Saera's and Serra's stories, but if Illyrio does have a reason of affection to support Aegon, that would not be his wife and Aegon being tenth cousins. Blackfyre theory supporters may be right about Aegon being Illyrio and Serra's son, but they're probably not right about Serra being a Blackfyre. So, this is my theory; Serra said on her deathbed, "Promise me you'll put him on the Iron Throne". She might not have been that specific. She might've just said "Make him a mighty king."

About dragons black and red

I agree with everything you say about that. And those arguments are one of the principal reasons why I stopped believing in the Blackfyre theory.

About his age

I agree, and Tyrion is notorious for not being good with ages. He misjudged Jon's age too.

About Varys and Kevan

There is no reason to lie to a dying man, only if you're sure that nobody else is listening. Littlefinger is also a good whisperer, and one of his little birds might've been bribed or threatened by Littlefinger. Or Littlefinger may have had spies behind the walls. Some Truegon supporters say that "a little kid's words spoken under duress prove nothing". And they're right. There are no cameras or voice recorders in ASOIAF. Whoever is stronger, their word is the truth. And that is exactly why Varys should keep repeating the lie. Littlefinger controls two of the Seven Kingdoms. The Riverlands (his domain) and the Vale (through Lysa and later Robert). He also has good ties with the Westerlands. He licked Tywin's boots for a lifetime. If he could convince some powerful lords that Aegon is actually fake, his word would matter. Not because he is lying or telling the truth, but because he is strong and influential.

I heard that double swap theory too. According to that, Varys actually smuggles the real Aegon out of KL, but Illyrio later swaps the true Aegon with his son. That sounds VERY tinfoil. You said "If YG is an impostor, Varys is unaware of it". I don't think so. Either YG is NOT an impostor, or YG is an impostor and Varys is aware of it. Illyrio swapping the true Aegon with his son would not serve the plot in any way whatsoever. Him being Illyrio's son or a random kid would serve the plot better. Why? Because that way, both Illyrio and Varys would get what they want. Illyrio gains nothing from deceiving Varys.

About JonCon

JonCon wasn't there when Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL, wasn't there when Illyrio and Varys raised him. YG is presented to him when he is a grown-enough kid. JonCon believes YG is truly Aegon, because that's what he wants to believe. He was in love with Rhaegar, and he felt guilty of not being there to protect him. The only way he can avenge him is to put his "son" on the throne. So, what JonCon thinks here is somewhat unreliable because his beliefs are clouded by his emotions.

JonCon cannot have found out about YG being an impostor on his own. Not saying "Aegon" and only saying "Rhaegar's son" does imply something (like him LATER finding out about YG being an impostor and switching to Jon Snow's side), but it doesn't necessarily mean that he CURRENTLY knows YG is an impostor. If it is later revealed that YG was an impostor, and RLJ is true, he would betray YG for Jon Snow, and that's all that would happen.

YG theories are always good brainstorms, but I still think GRRM himself has no idea what to make him.

I was once a supporter of the Brightfyre theory (albeit a slightly modified version), but after reading some arguments of Truegon supporters, I changed my mind. Interestingly, I wasn't swayed to the Truegon side, but their arguments made me realize that fAegon is neither Blackfyre nor Brightflame.

He is just a random Valyrian-looking kid.

Many fAegon supporters, regardless of what camp they're in (Blackfyre, Brightflame, random kid), have made many good points why he isn't the son of Rhaegar and Elia (Varys never outright stating that he is Rhaegar's son, the pisswater prince story making no sense, "the mummer's dragon, slayer of the lies" vision, Illyrio's behavior, him being legit making Daenerys and Jon unimportant etc.), but in this post, I'm going to explain why he is not a Blackfyre or Brightflame either.

WHY HE IS NOT A BLACKFYRE

1. He thinks he's a Targaryen, even if he's "biologically" a Blackfyre. If the Blackfyre himself will forever think that he's a Targaryen, where is the glory for the Blackfyres? What sense would that make for the plot? Are the members of the Golden Company going to think to themselves "We put a Blackfyre on the throne. Nobody will know he's a Blackfyre, and the Blackfyre name won't be reminded to others, but he's a Blackfyre by blood after all. We fulfilled Bittersteel's promise. Yay us!" Come on guys, does that really make sense? "History doesn't remember blood, it remembers names." -Corlys Velaryon
2. "But the Golden Company supports him!" The members of the Golden Company are exiles, and they want to go home. Some are pretenders to titles, which they aim to achieve. Blackfyres being "extinct in the male line" is common knowledge, and they know very well that they're not going to find a Blackfyre to support. Supporting a kid with a Blackfyre mother who himself thinks he is the son of Rhaegar and Elia would not give them any feeling of attachment, loyalty or glory, as I said in the previous article.
3. Even if the Golden Company somehow knew that he had a Blackfyre mother, that wouldn't be a secret anymore. TEN THOUSAND mercenaries would know that there was a Blackfyre descendant alive, and neither Illyrio nor Varys would risk that. They would've had to inform only some high ranking members. But if only some high ranking members were allowed to know that, wouldn't ten thousand other mercenaries think "We were founded to fight for Blackfyres. Why are we supporting our mortal enemies?" Some Blackfyre theory supporters might argue that "Like you said, they want to go home". But despite the fact that they were founded to fight for Blackfyres, and they wanted to go home even with their mortal enemies, that just proves me. That would mean that they don't care about the Blackfyres anymore. And if the GC doesn't care about Blackfyres, Aegon being a Blackfyre wouldn't serve the plot in any way.
4. If Aegon was enthroned as a Targaryen and later revealed to be a Blackfyre, his legitimacy would be tarnished. It would be EXTREMELY likely that the lords and ladies of the realm would rebel against him (perhaps excluding Yronwoods, Peakes and Osgreys, who are long-time Blackfyre fanboys, but that would be merely a drop in the ocean). If he was indeed meant to be a Blackfyre, it would make more sense to make him an outright Blackfyre, rather than making him a secret Blackfyre who's pretending to be a Targaryen.
5. "But if he was made an outright Blackfyre, he would find very little support!" Well, if he conquers the Seven Kingdoms as Aegon VI Targaryen, and would later be revealed as Aegon Blackfyre, all the support he previously had would evaporate. So he either finds no support, or all the support he has evaporates. Same outcome; being deposed. And remember that Aegon has no dragons. If he is truly going to be revealed later as a Blackfyre, others would not be afraid to overthrow him.

WHY HE IS NOT A DESCENDANT OF AERION "BRIGHTFLAME"

1. The classical Brightfyre theory (Illyrio being half-Blackfyre and Serra being a granddaughter of Aerion Brightflame) is not only tinfoil, but also makes no sense. While marrying someone from the eldest agnatic-cognatic line of the Targaryen dynasty may give him some legitimacy, he is still descended from a woman. In the Great Council of 101 AC, female lines were completely excluded from the line of succession (agnatic primogeniture), just like in medieval France. Rhaenys (in TV) and Laenor (in the books) were excluded from the line of succession, and it was made clear that uncles and their male lines come before daughters and their male line. After King Baelor's death, his oldest sister Daena was passed over in favor of their uncle, Viserys II. After King Aerys I's death, Prince Rhaegel's daughter Daenora (daughter of the thirdborn son) was passed over in favor of Maekar (fourthborn son). The daughter of King Maekar's firstborn son, Vaella, was also passed over in favor of Aerion. So, unlike in medieval England or Spain (which had agnatic-cognatic succession, in which daughters or their lines were allowed to inherit if there were no sons), the succession law of the Iron Throne is agnatic, like in medieval France, which means females and their lines are completely excluded.
2. Why would Illyrio, a half-Blackfyre, marry a descendant of Aerion Targaryen? Why would he marry someone from the house of his nemeses? Let's accept that they were madly in love, which they were, and their love knew no boundaries. And Illyrio is, in fact, portraying his son by Serra Brightflame as Rhaegar and Elia's. How would Aegon being a Brightflame descendant serve the plot? It is completely irrelevant to everything. If Illyrio thinks Aegon should be the king because he descends from the eldest male line of Targaryens (which he morally can't, because he is a half-Blackfyre according to the theory), why not just portray him for what he is? "Aegon, great-grandson of Aerion Brightflame, the rightful king of the Seven Kingdoms."  If that's not what Illyrio thinks, how does Aegon being a descendant of Aerion serve the plot?
3. As I said; before I switched to the "random kid Aegon" side, I had made up my own Brightfyre theory. Why? Because "beneath the gold, the bitter tinfoil". In my version; Illyrio was the grandson of Aerion, and Serra was a Blackfyre. It would give him a somewhat stronger claim, as he is descended from the eldest agnatic line of Targaryens. But later, I realized it wasn't that different from the classical Brightfyre theory. Why? Go back to the last few sentences of article 2.
4. Furthermore, GRRM completely ignores Aerion's son, Maegor after he is passed over in the council. We don't know whether he's dead or alive, we don't know what he became when he grew up, we don't know where he went, who he married etc. And, AFAIK, he doesn't mention them in any interview. This is not a very good argument, but it might give us the idea that GRRM has nothing planned for Aerion, Maegor and their lines.

I think he is just a Valyrian-looking Tyroshi/Lyseni kid with the right age. He could still be Illyrio's son, and that still wouldn't require Serra to be a Blackfyre or a Brightflame.

On 3/19/2024 at 5:29 PM, John Suburbs said:

My two cents:

Even if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, or not, his real target is the Iron Bank, not the Iron Throne. So the goal is actually to devolve Westeros back into seven independent kingdoms, destabilizing the bank's finances so he can orchestrate a panic that sends it into insolvency. Then Pentos emerges as the top merchant city on the Narrow Sea, with him making an even fatter pile dominating trade, including slaves -- with his partner, Littlefinger, controlling all the key ports on the Westerosi side.

That is a relatively plausible theory, “plausible” meaning “possible in another story or another fictional universe”. While it is an intriguing and realistic speculation, it doesn’t serve the poetic beauty of ASOIAF. “Two evil power-hungry men who are plotting to make themselves richer” doesn’t sound very ASOIAF-y to me.

The Blackfyre theory about fAegon. Not because it is incorrect, but because it is too obvious. I like to think that there is more than that. Like Illyrio being the grandson of Aerion Brightflame, and Serra being a Blackfyre.

My theory is built on the assumption that Illyrio is fAegon's father, and Serra is definitely a Targaryen descendant. It may or may not be the case, though it very probably is.

The Brightfyre theory holds that Illyrio is actually a Blackfyre descendant in the female line, and Serra is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. My theory is the opposite; that Illyrio is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame, and Serra is a Blackfyre.

1) Illyrio as Maegor's son

Although Illyrio's age or birth date isn't given anywhere, it can be assumed that he is around 45 (which would make his birth date around 255 AC). Aerion's son, Maegor was born in 232 AC, the same year his father died. At the age of 23, Maegor could've fathered a child indeed. This leaves some questions unanswered, like "Why did Varys and Illyrio grow up in poverty?" etc. But this question is also unanswered in the classical Brightfyre theory and the ubiquitous Blackfyre theory. Well, whomever you would think as Illyrio's parents (Mopatis man + Blackfyre woman | Maegor Targaryen + a random woman) likely grew up in poverty as well. What happened to Maegor after Egg was chosen as the king is unknown, but he was likely exiled to, or voluntarily decided to go to Essos. In Essos (probably Lys or Pentos), Maegor probably lived a sellsword's or a cutthroat's life, and was likely not rich.

2) Serra as a Blackfyre

It is like a universal fact that Serra is, in some way, related to the Targaryens. No speculation is needed here.

3) Why would Illyrio, a trueborn Targaryen, help the Blackfyres?

This is a relatively plausible argument, but also quite answerable, even in the classical Brightfyre (Illyrio Blackfyre + Serra Brightflame) theory. Maegor probably (and expectedly) developed a hatred towards the Targaryens during his time in Essos. He also probably indoctrinated his child Illyrio (or Serra if you support the classical Brightfyre theory) with the same hatred. Thus, this led Illyrio to sympathize with the Blackfyres, and father a child with one of them.

Ironically, this would make fAegon's claim quite strong, as he descends from the eldest male line of Targaryens alive. In the classical Brightfyre theory, fAegon is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame through his mother, which would make his claim somewhat weaker. I am curious about your opinions regardless of which theory you support.