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Tini

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About Tini

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  • Birthday 08/22/1969

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  1. Tini

    Jon is not in the line of succession

    You are wrong. Robb *was* the king - not for us, not for North or South, but for his followers. For those Northmen who swore allegiance to him as their King in the North. As far as these people are concerned, Robb was king. Therefore, in their eyes, Robb did have the right to change someone's bastard status. This is evidenced by Catelyn Stark's dismay when Robb told her of his intention to legitimize Jon and get him out of the Night's Watch. Robb is dead, his war ended. But many of his followers are still alive. The question is what they'll choose to do, and what Jon chooses to do. Jon intended to march south when Bowen Marsh stabbed him. Let's assume that he recovers, and will eventually march on Winterfell, ousting the Boltons (if Stannis does not beat him to it). Most people in the North have no idea that Rickon and Brandon Stark are still alive. They hate the the incumbent on the Iron Throne, and the idea of being ruled by the Boltons. If they hear that Robb Stark's heir Jon is marching to take back the North ... they might very well decide to join him. King Stannis (who is as much king as Robb was) offered Jon legitimization, and Winterfell. Jon refused him. He might not refuse Robb, and them. The question, then, is how Westerosi nobility would deal with it. Stannis won't be happy but he might accept it if Jon bends the knee. He needs all allies he can get. He needs strong allies. A legitimization by Robb Stark will carry more weight in the North than one by him. It might even prevent unrest among Northern Lords when Rickon Stark eventually returns. Robb wanted to name Jon his heir to disinherit Sansa, but he also intended to make sure that no child (not even his own) would ever become King in the North - because the North needs a strong, grown-up ruler. The Lannisters and Tyrells will not accept Jon as King in the North, nor as Lord of Winterfell. But they are increasingly under pressure from Jon Connington and Aegon Targaryen (real or not doesn't matter, Aegon just needs to keep winning). Neither Aegon nor Daenerys will support Stannis' claim to the Iron Throne. But they have no particular axe to grind with Jon as heir to House Stark. Both might try to win Jon over to their side - and that would lend Jon additional legitimacy. Other Houses will pick their sides in this Game of Thrones, and accept or reject Jon's claims accordingly. If, at some later date, the world finds out that Jon is Rhaegar's son, or some such, some of these alliances might dramatically shift or even break. But by then, it will be too late. Once given, the legitimation cannot be taken back. Jon would probably take the opportunity to name Rickon heir to Winterfell, and restore succession to Ned Stark's sons. At that time, he might finally even be powerful enough to make a bid for the Iron Throne. Even though he is not in the Baratheon line of succession. I don't think any Baratheons will be left by that time.
  2. Maybe the lemon tree was an apology, and nothing more. Was there anyone really that interested in their well-being after Willem Darry died? Not Illyrio, or Varys. I think those two only developed an interest in them when Daenerys got old enough to have children. They intervened to make sure that Viserys didn't marry his sister - the only high-ranking female down-on-his-luck Viserys Targaryen could hope to marry. Dany's children by Viserys might've posed a danger to Aegon, so Illyrio devised a plan to prevent this. Doran Martell had developed second thoughts regarding the deal he'd struck with Willem Darry. He wanted his daughter to become queen, but not risk Dorne becoming Viserys first, and possibly only, supporter. He never abandoned the plan entirely, as is evidenced by the fact that he never contracted another marriage for Arianne. But neither did he move the plan forward by letting Arianne know of the betrothal. When Viserys died, Doran still didn't arrange a marriage for her. He seems out of touch with the flow of time - so possibly he pondered helping Viserys and Daenerys after Ser Willem's death, and just didn't get around to it before Viserys died. The rest of Westeros had mostly forgotten them. As long as they remained in Essos, without any (Westerosi) political backers, they weren't of interest. So, who are "they"? Robert could be talked out of hiring knives. Cersei or Tywin, however, might not have been so easy to dissuade. It didn't require hired knives to make Viserys seek Illyrio's protection. That just required Illyrio's vast wealth, and a promise to support Viserys' cause. And a certain willingness to put up with Viserys' temper.
  3. Tini

    Does Cersei really love Jaime?

    I think Jaime would be extremely surprised if Tommen started acting like Joffrey. He knew both of them. His instruction was meant for the members of the King's Guard, and only for them. He changed their orders - not so much in his capacity as commander of the King's Guard, but in the role that Tywin intended for him. Tywin wanted him to become a subsitute father for Tommen. Jaime refused that, as he refused his position as Tywin's heir. But now that Tywin is dead, Jaime has started filling his father's place. Not at court. In the country. His actions at Riverrun show that he is capable of the same sort of actions Tywin was capable of - and renowned for. Tywin's actions were not the actions of a nice man. Allies and adversaries respected him nevertheless. And now, after the way Jaime ended the siege at Riverrun, they start respecting the Kingslayer as they respected his father. "The power lies where people think it does" is absolutely correct.
  4. "Merely" ? Actually I think that this is quite enough: it is derailing Connington's plans. It's derailing Varys' plans. It will derail Aegon, in the end. The Aegon plan has been in the making for more than a decade, and Connington was, and is, central to it. And I think his intended role is far from finished. Despite Connington's best efforts, most of Aegon's knowledge is theoretical in nature. Connington has the practical expertise - and personal connections to Westerosi nobles. He was part of Aerys' court, and, for a short time, King's Hand. He knew (and loved) both Rhaegar and baby Aegon - which means that Westerosi may be inclined to believe him when he presents Aegon as heir to House Targaryen and the Iron Throne. Without the disease, he would've remained at court as Aegon's advisor, even as King's Hand, bridging the continuity gap created by the Baratheon interregnum. He would've been there while Aegon learned how to govern a country which is much more difficult than actually conquering it (as Daenerys is learning). Due to the disease, he will not be able to do so. A greyscale infected advisor would not reflect well on the new king. Worse, a greyscale infected advisor might infect the king.
  5. Tini

    The future of Jaime and Brienne?

    Brienne swore several oaths - including bringing Arya and Sansa to Catelyn. She may have to choose which one matters to her most. Most likely she will not even get to choose. We know what oathbreaker Jaime chose. It'll be interestng to see her choose - and how she'll be able to live with herself afterwards. If she lives. Jaime and Brienne might have some interesting conversations if both survive the cliffhanger. I don't think Arya will be involved in resolving the cliffhanger: I don't think the timing quite works. As for Stoneheart's final death, I think it will mirror Dondarrion's to some extent - like him, she'll realize what she lost, and give up her existence. I think that will require meeting some of her surviving children, and seeing their horror at what she has done/become. Arya may very well be the one to find her. After all, there would be no reason for Arya not to accept a contract on Stoneheart - she doesn't know who Stoneheart is. If they recognize each other, the shock might even be mutual - Catelyn Stark would be horrified that her daughter joined the Faceless Men. Maybe that will make Arya reevaluate her choices. But then, there isn't much left of Catelyn Stark. I wonder if Stoneheart would try to use Arya's abilities / hire her own FM daughter.
  6. Tini

    The future of Jaime and Brienne?

    Stoneheart may still be holding Ser Hyle and/or Podrick Payne hostage. I think Brienne would gladly trade Arya and Sansa for those two. Jaime and Brienne might reason that Stoneheart will, at least, not kill her daughters. But neither has any idea where to find either girl. I don't know where, or how, but I think Stoneheart is going to meet her children - all of her surviving children - before she passes on. But that time has not yet come. I think the current arc's resolution will depend on Jaime's secret sword training, and on Ser Ilyn Payne.
  7. Tini

    [twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

    Doran told Arianne that she would've been more than Viserys' queen consort - she was to be his equal on the Iron Throne. Yet he didn't teach her to rule. That is more than an error on his part. It's stupid, really, really stupid. And if he didn't trust her to keep secrets, he should've at least tried to teach her. But he didn't. As you said: he didn't prepare her for her role as Princess of Dorne, he didn't prepare her for anything else. In that respect Doran is worse than Tywin Lannister - Tywin didn't teach Cersei anything, either. But at least Tywin told his daughter that he expected her to become queen of Westeros. It seems Doran lost track of time, lost track of his plans as well. And while he made plans, he never followed through on them. He excpected others to do that for him, and had the gall to blame them if they didn't work as expected.
  8. Tini

    Why did the faceless men train Arya?

    We don't really know much about the FM recruitment strategies, do we? They don't advertise them. They just offer death. But that offer must be balanced - balanced by something their customer holds dear. We know how one other person joined the FM: The Waif joined them after she got poisoned by her stepmother. She was part of the price the FM extracted when her father asked them to kill his wife for the attempted murder. While it is possible that the FM just happened to need a recruit, and realized the Waif was dear to her father, there might be a different reason for asking for her: She had been marked by their God. She survived a deadly poison when she should've died. Taking her in (and killing her stepmother) restored the balance. Jaqen stayed with Arya because Arya saved his life as well as those of two others - lives which belonged to the god of death. In exchange for their lives, he offered to kill 3 people of Arya's choosing - as 3 deaths were owed for the deaths she stole from his god. Three deaths, to restore balance. Arya had him kill 2 (and not even from her personal kill list), then blackmailed him into helping him free the Northmen at Harrenhal by threatening to name Jaqen as her third choice. Four guards died as a result of her blackmail, and the weasel soup. Their deaths freed Jaqen of his service - but the balance was off again. Something Arya was not concerned with - but a FM would be. Offering Arya a place among the FM could be considered their way of restoring balance. P.S. Arya hired a Faceless Men for killing 3 people for the price of saving him and 3 others from death. She got quite a bargain. Cersei and other potential customers would've been impressed. (Less impressed with her choice of targets, though.)
  9. Tini

    Why did the faceless men train Arya?

    There may be many fierce children, but how many ask the Faceless Men to train them? Arya asked to be trained. Arya learned what a Faceless Man can do, and her reaction is that she wants to learn their art. Without giving any thoughts to possible benefits. I think that is the main reason Jaqen gave her the coin - her ticket to the Faceless Men. A coin that later told the Braavosi sailors that she was a Faceless Man, and made them help her reach Braavos. A coin that, still later, told the Faceless Men that she was either stupid or an asset. Jaqen already knew what Arya could do. And, after the above exchange, he knew that she was dutiful, too - and Faceless Men training emphasizes duty. Arya wanted to learn but had to go home. He didn't argue that. He just offered her the opportunity to learn after she had fulfilled her duty. If she still wanted to - and if she managed to find her way to the Temple (which I consider a test of Arya's abilities).
  10. That sounds very likely. GRRM is procrastinating. I think he's reached the point where the story requires him to kill off characters. To kill off characters in large quantities. Once their deaths are published, these characters are gone. And he still has ideas what he can do with them.
  11. I had been gone from the forum for 3 years and still nothing new. I don't think GRRM will publish another book in this series before the show finishes. If ever. I don't agree with you that the holdover chapters couldn't fit into Dance. They could have been added, easily. Maybe the publisher believed the next book would be released sooner if they held them back. If they did, they were certainly wrong. And those multiple cliff hangers didn't add anything to the story. ADwD just seemed unfinished.
  12. Tini

    What is Jon Snow's real name?

    It was Rhaegar who said the Dragon has three heads in Dany's vision. He didn't speak to Dany, he spoke to Elia and Aegon. I think the vision showed Dany a past event. Rhaegar was into the Prince prophesy - but that doesn't mean he didn't believe in the 3 heads as well. Originally he believed he was the prophesied prince, but he came to believe that it was referring to his children. And there had to be three, as the dragon has three heads according to family lore. I don't believe Rhaegar named Jon, and I have no idea who he named his children for. It's a fact, though, that his children by Elia were named Rhaenys and Aegon. And that Aegon the Conqueror's sister-wives were named Visenya and Rhaenys. Rhaegar was very interested in family history. You brought up that he believed in the prophesies. I went from there. I don't think Lyanna was into the Targaryen prophesies. She was a daughter of the North, grew up in different traditions. She didn't run away with Rhaegar because she believed in his prophesies, she fled from an unwanted marriage. I think she would've named her son after someone she loved, as a statement of that love. The prophesy will remain intact whatever name she gave her child - as long as the child lived. Actually, it will remain intact as long as Rhaella's line continues. As it currently does in Daenerys, probably Jon, and maybe in Jon Connington's Aegon.
  13. Tini

    What is Jon Snow's real name?

    You write everyone believed little Aegon to be dead by the time Jon was born - quite so. But Rhaegar died before Aegon did, or Jon was born. When Rhaegar died, *both* his children were still alive. Therefore he would not have considered naming his unborn child Aegon. He could not name his third child after he died. And Lyanna had no reason to name her child Aegon. She would've considered it an unlucky name. The prophesy could no longer come true (in the form Rhaegar expected ) because two of three heads of the Dragon had died in KL. Yes, Viserys is a masculine form of Visenya. But I suspect Rhaegar expected another daughter, a Visenya to complete the Dragon, a complete rebirth of Aegon the Conqueror and his sister-wives. Which means Rhaegar, blended by prophesy, would only consider a female name for his as yet unborn child - Visenya. And it would've been up to Lyanna to decide her child's name when she discovered that Visenya wasn't suitable. If she discovered it. She may never have known she gave birth to a boy. Ned may have made that discovery after Lyanna made him promise he'd protect her Visenya. After Lyanna died. In which case he would've picked the name for his nephew. I think Jon becomes Aegon in the show because there is now an Aegon featuring quite prominently in the books, an Aegon the show failed to include. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on his name.
  14. Tini

    What is Jon Snow's real name?

    It doesn't say in the visions that Rhaegar has to name all his sons Aegon, does it? They didn't mention names much, if at all. Anyway, while there may be examples of naming one's second son after one's first son if the firstborn son is dead, there are none in which both sons live. When Rhaegar died, his son Aegon by Elia was still alive. Rhaegar certainly didn't name his second son Aegon, and he didn't intend to name him Aegon, either. He believed in the prophesy: the Dragon has three heads. His son by Lyanna was not meant to replace a head of the Dragon, he was meant to be its third head. With a name of his own, so that there would be no confusion. I don't see why Lyanna would name her son Aegon on her own - she would've named him Rhaegar - in memory of his father. Or she would've named him Rickard or Brandon, in memory of her own father or brother. If Lyanna had named her son Rickard, or Brandon - or even Jon -, Ned Stark would not have felt compelled to change the boy's name. All 3 were good names for a Stark. If Ned chose his name, Lyanna either didn't name her son, or her chosen name was inacceptable to the new government, to Robert Baratheon. Aegon, as a name, might have been borderline, but still acceptable - it was a known fact that Ned Stark was upset with Elia's fate and that of her children. People would've considered it very much Ned if he had named his bastard Aegon in protest because Robert let their murder go unpunished. Any other Targaryen name, however, would've been unacceptable - especially Aerys, or Rhaegar. I think Lyanna named her son Rhaegar. P.S. If Rhaegar made Lyanna promise to give a special name to their child, according to prophesies he believed in, I think that name would have been Visenya. He already had an Aegon (after Aegon the Conqueror), and a Rhaenys (after Aegon the Conqueror's younger sister-wife). He was still lacking a Visenya (after Aegon the Conqueror's older sister). Alas, Rhaegar never learned that he got the prophesy wrong. Again.
  15. Yes. A lot of characters will be killed off in Winds. And GRRM has problems doing it. The longer he takes to finish the book, the longer his characters will live.
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