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Everything posted by Skyrazer

  1. The hysteria over it is absolutely stupid, yet totally predictable. Just makes me SMH hearing some idiots, who would be nowhere near the 3m+ super club, lose their minds over it. It's the "mining tax" all over again. It kinda pisses me off how any attempt to correct our structurally inefficient tax system is always met with such hysterical fear, no matter how miniscule and benign.
  2. Pretty much - our tax system has massively distorted the market and has been in dire need of an overhaul for years now (I remember being bitterly disappointed that Rudd basically all but ignored the Henry tax review). But while GenX and boomers still make up a major voting bloc, govts of all stripes will be too scared to shoot their golden goose. Albanese has already emphatically ruled out changes to CGT with a "full stop, exclamation" .
  3. Touching NG and CGT concession and anything to do with property is practically taboo in Aus. Only if the ALP become multi-term and remain popular and millenials/genZ become the clear voting majority will we then, maybe, possibly see these huge money sinks looked at again. But that's a long way away. These Super concession changes are low hanging fruit and is an easy one for the electorate to swallow as it only impacts less than 1% of the richest people. It won't be indexed according to Chalmers however which has some spooked, but of course that doesn't mean it can't and won't be adjusted down the track.
  4. Honestly, wavering support for the voice was pretty much an inevitability. Any constitutional change is going to invite doubt and suspicion once it's on the table. Also with the Libs/Dutton acting exactly how I was expecting them to with their gaslighting the whole thing would be feeding people's doubts as well. Above is a real issue too that is going to be difficult to overcome because, to be honest, most people probably don't fully understand how parliament works in general....
  5. Sheesh, looks like Jacinda Ardern has resigned. Haven't followed NZ politics too closely, but I know Labour have been on the nose a bit over there. Resignation seems pretty sudden (or maybe not for those who follow NZ politics a bit more).
  6. A positive take from the Vic election though is that it has revealed how impotent the Murdoch press is becoming. The amount of vile articles the Herald Sun was releasing attacking Dan Andrews in the lead up to the election was absolutely appalling. It was even worse than the Fed election and the election result was a collective hard slap in the face for the Murdoch press. Seems we've gone past the peak for News Corp here in Aus and hopefully it's all downhill from here on out.
  7. This Libs tried to import some of the culture-war bullshit from the US and it blew up in their faces. We just don't swallow that kind of nonsense here - people want to see real issues being addressed, not shit being made up about teachers trying to screw with kids over traditional genders in classrooms or whatever the fuck is the new RJSJW weekly outrage. I really get annoyed when some try to make things like LGBTQ crap and abortion front and center issues. It just turns people off.
  8. Matt Guy has since stood down as leader, but I honestly don't see anyone among their ranks to step up and be an effective leader. They have absolutely nobody palatable. I hear many say they should turn to outer metro electorates, but nothing to me indicates they are really doing anything to appeal to these areas. These electorates are hungry for infrastructure and amenities and Labor is generally the party that delivers these things (while Libs are generally seen as cutters and privatisation). Many outer metro suburbs are also immigration havens and we all know Liberal's track record with immigrants is hardly flattering. They'll need to produce candidates like Dai Le to win over many of these electorates - highly active and representative of the local community. Kinda ironic that she used to be a Lib member herself before the party kicked her out .
  9. That's what I've been saying since the Libs have been getting shitted on these past couple years at Fed and state elections. Yes, the major parties have suffered severe defeats before and eventually bounce back, but this new low for the Libs feels more than just a cyclical thing. Before, they always had their core constituents in wealthy inner-city electorates which they could rely upon to keep the party in contention. Blue ribbon seats that have produced leaders and prominent members for the party and they're starting to lose them. Even in this latest election, Labor has flipped or further consolidated in many of the eastern metro electorates and this used to be Liberal heartland and I don't see them getting these seats back anytime soon with the way they are going. Without these blue-ribbon seats producing the leaders and prominent members for the party, they have been getting hollowed out and you can see it with how bereft of talent the party is. Looking at the libs at both federal and state level, I don't know wtf they stand for anymore. Everywhere, they're flailing around looking for a reason to exist and with the continued encroachment of hard line religious conservative fundies, they seem to be producing more and more absolute stinkers of candidates lately. Not to mention the fact that we are moving away from a 2 party system which means them being a major force is no longer a guarantee like it was before. I'm not saying their extinction is a certainty, but they look increasingly on the nose with the way the county and the party itself is heading. I feel the libs completely need to overhaul themselves from top to bottom if they want to remain as the second major party to Labor because right now, they are not offering themselves as a viable alternative.
  10. Well it's pretty much a wrap for a majority Vic Labor govt which was pretty much expected. Looks like it's mirrored the fed election in that we see swings against Lab/Lib towards Greens/indis, but Libs are coming off such a small base, it's a bad result for them.
  11. Just voted. The number of dumb candidates running for the senate is bloody annoying. Idiots still can't get over the lockdowns and since we still run with group voting tickets here in Vic, a couple of them could end up on the senate.
  12. Yeah fair points. AUD is heavily anchored to resource prices (especially iron ore). NZD wouldn't have such an anchor so would be more impacted my global currency fluctuations. Would NZ's households be that much less indebted then aussie households? Their house prices are similarly unaffordable to ours and I don't imagine their consumer habits would be too dissimilar at all to ours.
  13. Oof, that's gotta sting. What's the current inflation rate in NZ?
  14. SA Libs are dealing with the infiltration as well. Was only last year they had to purge a bunch of dodgy pentecostals from its ranks and then they wound up getting hammered at this year's state election. It's quite alarming seeing what's happening to the Libs nation wide. If I was a moderate Lib in what was once a blue-ribbon city seat, I'd seriously consider becoming a "teal" independent.
  15. The Vic libs are absolutely worthless. Don't think I've seen an opposition this hopeless. Matt Guy is so devoid of any kind of appeal, sometimes I wonder if he's even human. The fact that he's apparently their best candidate for leader even after their thumping 4 years ago when he was also leader speaks volumes to the party's severe lack of talent. Just seems that every time they try to get an attack in on Dan Andrews (and it's always about Dan), it gets drowned out by whatever new scandal crops up within their own party. First the IBAC referral over the 100k payment and then all the toxic shit coming out about many LNP candidates and how the party seems to be overrun by religious fundamentalists is all not helping. If they were actually somewhat decent, they'd have a pretty good chance of ousting Labor as many are somewhat over Daniel Andrews. Victoria is a fairly left-leaning state and with the way things are going here, the Greens are eventually going to become the main opposition if the Libs don't get their shit together. If NSW goes Labor at next year's election, we'll probably hit peak Labor I reckon.
  16. My knowledge on legal proceedings is rather limited, but I believe the decision to hold a non-jury trial is up to the accused? If correct, I somewhat doubt Lehrmann will opt for a non-jury trial. I work in a court (but not in any kind of legal capacity) and a colleague told me that accused parties pretty much never opt for Judge-only trials.
  17. With how much publicity there is around the case and the amount of public furore it's brought in its wake, the case was always going to be highly susceptible to mistrial. The fact it had to be delayed after the Wilkinson fiasco as well shows how difficult it will be keep the trial as fair and objective as possible.
  18. Yeah Truss' backpedal on the UK's planned tax cuts probably makes it easier for Labor to backpedal on ours. As reluctant as Labor seem to be with cancelling the ridiculous stage 3 cuts, I reckon they won't end up seeing the light of day. Between now and 2024, they'll either be cancelled or atleast heavily watered down.
  19. I think the whole public holiday to mourn her passing is a bit unnecessary, but I won't complain about an extra day off. Being in Vic, that makes it a 4 day weekend for me (Grand Final Friday on 23rd) which is pretty sweet. Do any other states have Friday 23rd off as well or is it just us?
  20. I, too, would love a slew of progressive and prudent fiscal policy but I'm not holding my breath. ALP offered up a light serving of that at the 2019 election and it caused the electorate to flock to the Coalition. So that leaves us to rely on the reserve banks and their giant sledgehammers to do the dirty work.
  21. I'm no monarchist, but you can't deny the absolute presence and recognition the Queen held and it is going to feel sort of surreal going into a world where she's no longer around after being such a prevalent figure for so long. I know alot of republicans will be licking their lips, but I think any push to become a republic should hold off for a bit while the shock of her passing subsides. Going in too early risks the perception of being insensitive and could end up hurting the movement. And I say all this as someone who's generally pro-republic.
  22. Gosh that would be nice. Just paid my quarterly Jun-Jul-Aug power bill which was nearly $500 and I'm just a single guy in a 1-bedroom apartment. Nuclear definitely has its merits, but that ship has long sailed as far as Australia goes. Only reason Dutton seems to be "supporting" it is purely out of political expediency. If he was actually legit, they would have done something to get the nuclear ball rolling during the 3 terms they were in power but as we all know, when it came to energy policy, the LNP did absolutely squat. If the LNP were to - God forbid - win power again in the next election or so, I highly doubt they'd actually go through with pursuing nuclear in earnest and would just go right back to twiddling their thumbs.
  23. That's the thing, we rather lack many productive areas that more diverse and advanced economies have. We're heavily reliant on resources and our manufacturing has been all but mostly mulched. Will likely be awhile before the education industry recovers to pre-pandemic levels as well. We don't have as much room to play loose with our currency as a nation like Japan (as per Paxter's example) who has a more diverse portfolio of industries and exports. Fact is, whenever IRs drop, Australians pour money into property and rates have been going down and staying down for so long that it's causing severe structural problems. We basically ran out of room to move and trying to maintain the climate that has contributed to the predicament we now find ourselves in is folly.
  24. We're a heavily consumerist country that imports a lot and exports little outside of resources and foods. The RBA also needs to maintain the value of the AUD and with pretty much every other country jacking up rates, the RBA has to keep up otherwise the AUD tanks which would leave us in a world of hurt with even worse inflation. I am of the opinion that rates should have started going up around mid-2021 when the vaccine rollout was well underway and the economy was opening up. This would have helped cool the out of control housing market and perhaps prevented so many from becoming so indebted which has caused the economy as a whole to become so sensitive to IR movements. We're only at 2.35% for goodness sake.
  25. It is rather remarkable that the whole thing has been been kept under wraps until now, even from his cabinet ministers! Only media outlet that seems to have known about it was News Corp with the 2 journos who published the book that's revealed the whole thing. News Corp being complicit for the LNP by withholding the revelation till after the election is totally unsurprising though.
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