Manderly Betrayal?

[RK Rajagopal]

The wolf will prove the boy is who we say he is, should the Dreadfort attempt to deny him. That is my price, Lord Davos. Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king.”

This is what Wyman Manderly says to Davos. I have a few comments to make about this:

1. He has clearly stated to Davos that should Davos smuggle back the Stark boy, he will take Stannis Baratheon as his King. Now, if the Great Northern Conspiracy is true, he doesn't actually plan to do this. He plans to install a Stark as a King. Given what we know about Manderly and how much he values his oaths, I find it hard to believe that he would outright lie to Davos. He clearly says that if Davos fulfills his part of the bargain, he will take Stannis as King. If he doesn't, wouldn't that be betrayal? Would Wyman Manderly stoop so low?

2. Another interesting aspect is how he says "bring me back my liege lord". Note that this is entirely consistent with accepting Stannis as King - Stannis would be acknowledged as the rightful King of the seven kingdoms, while Rickon would be the Lord Paramount of the North - Manderly's liege lord. This is how he refers to Robb Stark as well.

Robb Stark was my liege lord,” said Lord Wyman. “Who is this man Stannis?

I don't know about the other Northern lords, but I find it hard to believe that Manderly would just betray Stannis. Maybe he doesn't know about / isn't part of the GNC. If Davos does deliver Rickon, I think that at least Manderly would back Stannis.

3. As a side note,I would like to point out that Manderly may not necessarily know that it is Rickon that Davis is after. Wex says that he saw two Stark boys alive, but he only followed one. Bran, being the elder, would have the stronger claim. While we know that Bran might become a tree and possible never return to Winterfell, Manderly doesn't know that - so he has no reason to write Bran off. I want to point out that Manderly might only know that Davos is tracking one of the Stark boys, and not Rickon in particular. This doesn't have much significance, of course, as both their claims trump Arya's.

[Barty]

Your theory is entirely based on the assumption that Manderly wont stoop to outright lies and betrayal, which is a bit absurd IMO. This is the same man who'll happily kill and eat other human beings and he has already made an oath to Bolton yet plans on outright betraying him as well.

Also as you pointed out Manderly knows that Bran is alive as well which makes Bran his liege lord, not Rickon. Davos will bring him a Stark boy but not his liege lord. It doesnt matter whether Manderly knew he was sending Davos to Rickon and not Bran - Davos is in no position to fulfill his part of the deal(bring back Manderly's liege lord - Bran) hence making sure Manderly does not have to break his word to Davos.

[C0bR]

1. Lie? Probably not. Deceive? Yes. The oath is very carefully worded in terms of only mentinoing liege lord and not naming him. It'll probably go down like this "But that's not my liege lord, my lord Davos. I am sincerely sorry."

2. I don't think this really matters. He could still call his own king a liege lord. He is not going to call Stark a king before Davos if he is going to give an oath to Stannis.

3. I am quite sure Manderly knows which boy is it. He knows Bran is a cripple (and Davos presumably does not). Even if the logic of one woman not being able to carry a cripple through the North did not come to him, asking Wex if he followed the cripple or not would've been the easiest thing to do. It's quite distinguishing. He can still act like he does not know in front of Davos though and gain an advantage as Rickon is not his liege, but Davos thinks he is going after one.

[RK Rajagopal]

Your theory is entirely based on the assumption that Manderly wont stoop to outright lies and betrayal, which is a bit absurd IMO. This is the same man who'll happily kill and eat other human beings and he has already made an oath to Bolton yet plans on outright betraying him as well.

You are correct, that is what I based my theory on. Of course, I could be wrong.

1. Lie? Probably not. Deceive? Yes.

If Manderly does indeed go against Stannis after Davos brings him Rickon, I would count it as lying and betrayal - regardless of the technicalities. Anyways, this isn't a "theory" as such. Just that I find it hard to believe that Manderly would backstab Stannis, given that he is so loyal to the Starks. If he does go ahead and do it, then I'll just lose what respect I have for him.

[SkaggCannibal]

You're right that's one of the many flaws about the GNC-theory. Remember that it is just a theory and although many posters want this to happen, there actually isn't much proof of this grand scheme for northern independence 2.0.

[RK Rajagopal]

You're right that's one of the many flaws about the GNC-theory. Remember that it is just a theory and although many posters want this to happen, there actually isn't much proof of this grand scheme for northern independence 2.0.

Glad someone agrees with me :)

[the conquoring bastard25]

I don't think so. This is the same man that feed and ate his friends and enemies alike humans. This is the same man that tricked the crown by chopping off the head of a man so that he could get his son back. This is a man whom plotted, joked, shared hearth and home with his enemies. It's actually kind of chilling that Manderly can sit and eat with the Freys all the while plotting their destruction and he's already got his plans in place. This man is calculated and only makes moves that he can back out of with plausible deniability. This is Micheal from the godfather type villainy. I'm going to church and be visible accepting the role of godfather over an innocent soul all the while planning the death of my enemies and family. That's creepy and scary all at the same time. So you think this man won't screw Stannis over if the opportunity presented itself. Come on in the game of thrones there are no such things as half measures that's how you get killed. In the game of thrones you either live or you die.

[RK Rajagopal]

I don't think so. This is the same man that feed and ate his friends and enemies alike humans. This is the same man that tricked the crown by chopping off the head of a man so that he could get his son back. This is a man whom plotted, joked, shared hearth and home with his enemies. It's actually kind of chilling that Manderly can sit and eat with the Freys all the while plotting their destruction and he's already got his plans in place. This man is calculated and only makes moves that he can back out of with plausible deniability. This is Micheal from the godfather type villainy. I'm going to church and be visible accepting the role of godfather over an innocent soul all the while planning the death of my enemies and family. That's creepy and scary all at the same time. So you think this man won't screw Stannis over if the opportunity presented itself. Come on in the game of thrones there are no such things as half measures that's how you get killed. In the game of thrones you either live or you die.

To be fair to him, he does all those things you mentioned either as "revenge" against the Lannisters, Freys and Boltons, or to protect his own family. Even the man he executed in place of Davos was a condemned criminal who was facing death anyways. Stannis on the other hand has done nothing to slight the Manderlys or the North. In fact, he has only helped them by crushing the Wildling attack. If Manderly still goes back on his word and betrays Stannis, I really don't see much difference between him and the Lannisters.

Edit: Typos corrected

[Sansa_Stark]

I think Manderly is just playing for opportunity and not out of real loyalty. That's just me though.

[Maester Pedant]

To be fair to him, he does all those things you mentioned either as "revenge" against the Lannisters, Freys and Boltons, or to protect his own family. Even the man he executed in place of Davos was a condemned criminal who was facing death anyways. Stannis on the other hand has done nothing to slight the Manderlys or the North. In fact, he has only helped them by crushing the Wildling attack. If Manderly still goes back on his word and betrays Stannis, I really don't see much difference between him and the Lannisters.

Edit: Typos corrected

To be fair to him, Freys barely count as human beings at this stage.

But I agree that he might actually plan on keeping his end of the bargain, without any tricks. A return to the status quo ante bellum, with a REAL Baratheon on the Iron Throne and a Stark Lord in Winterfell is much better than the current situation. It is much more urgent and important to get rid of the Boltons and avenge the victims of the Red Wedding than to restore the North as a separate Kingdom.

In any case, Robb's war was not primarily against Stannis, but against the King that was actually sitting on the Iron Throne, the abomination called Joffrey, and his Lannister kin. Those were the ones actually responsible for killing Eddard Stark.

Also, Stannis helped the Night's Watch. If he can get rid of the Boltons and restore the Starks to Winterfell, I don't see why most Northern houses wouldn't back him in his struggle for the Iron Throne.

[RK Rajagopal]

If he can get rid of the Boltons and restore the Starks to Winterfell, I don't see why most Northern houses wouldn't back him in his struggle for the Iron Throne.

I agree. Not so sure of the other Northern Houses, but at least the Manderlys.

[kiasyd]

To be fair to him, Freys barely count as human beings at this stage.

This. Once the Frey's and Bolton pulled of the RW, they are not entitled to people being truthful to them anymore. Even Ned Stark would lie to them if he was alive to see the RW.

[Bleiz]

Seeing how proud Manderly seemed to be of Wylla reciting the promise of loyalty to the Starks in front of their enemies, I think its is a reasonable conclusion that Manderly is determined to see and make sure that the Starks return.

While fairly easy to take at face value, a few things just don't seem right. I mean, why is he even sending Davos in the first place - and more to the point, alone and unsupervised to fetch his supposed liege lord? We know Davos is a good guy and would probably honour these conditions but how would Wyman know that? He is given an extreme mission of importance to a man who has no allegiance to Manderly or the North. Something about this that just doesn't sit right with me.

Besides, doesn't swearing his loyalty to Stannis, somewhat violate the ancient promise made to house Stark to be only Stark men? So it could make him an oathbreaker, or at the very least a manipulator of one side or the other, so I don't think the assumption that Manderly would keep his word should be set in stone.

[Jairion Lannister]

He could be deceiving Davos in a way where he means what he sees, but also plans for a Stark to be King in the North. He may later say that if Stannis wants his help, then the conditions of getting Stannis the IT will be that the north is allowed to become an independent kingdom afterwards. In that case, he'd be willing to help Stannis become king, but wants to see a Stark as his own ruler.

[Julian Rayne]

I'm not an expert in the current iteration of the Great Northern Conspiracy Theory, but as far as I understand, it's about re-instating Stark rule in the North. Restoring them to Lord Paramounts under Stannis or another king would be compatible with that.

My own Headcanon: Manderly is misleading without lying. He doesn't intend to survive the GNC (my body is a prison more dire than the Wolf's Den). His promises to Davos are not binding on his Son.

I don't think so. This is the same man that feed and ate his friends and enemies alike humans.

He ate his friends?

[the conquoring bastard25]

Manderly knows that Davos is an honest man by the questions that he asked Davos in open court. How many knights, heavy horse, ships.... Only a honest fool would come to court with begger bowl in hand and actually tell the truth.A skilled politician or courtier would have presented the truth yet they would have dissembled the information so that it's presented in a better light. Davos is tripping over his tongue the entire time. Expecially when he starts getting drilled by Manderly's cousin.

No I meant to say this is the same man that chopped his enemies in to small pieces stuffed them into a pie and then feed said pie to his enemies and friends alike. (meaning those that were suppose to be his possible allies if he has any in the castle)

[The Raging Bull]

I think he will stick to his promise. He knows that Rickon will unite the north against Bolton and Frey and therefore allow him to get his revenge, but turning on Stannis would be stupid.

Before the war the Manderly's were prospering. I believe he wants a Stark for his liege lord, revenge and then peace. Stannis is the best way of doing this.

Just think as a major port he makes his money trading with all of Westeros. If the north was to separate he would suffer.

[Northernmonkey]

I think he's telling the truth.

I don't think many Northerner's still have an appetite for a war of Northern independence. If they can get rid of the Boltons, Freys and Lannisters, and put a Stark back in Winterfell then I think everyone will be happy.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

This is what Wyman Manderly says to Davos. I have a few comments to make about this:

1. He has clearly stated to Davos that should Davos smuggle back the Stark boy, he will take Stannis Baratheon as his King. Now, if the Great Northern Conspiracy is true, he doesn't actually plan to do this. He plans to install a Stark as a King. Given what we know about Manderly and how much he values his oaths, I find it hard to believe that he would outright lie to Davos. He clearly says that if Davos fulfills his part of the bargain, he will take Stannis as King. If he doesn't, wouldn't that be betrayal? Would Wyman Manderly stoop so low?

2. Another interesting aspect is how he says "bring me back my liege lord". Note that this is entirely consistent with accepting Stannis as King - Stannis would be acknowledged as the rightful King of the seven kingdoms, while Rickon would be the Lord Paramount of the North - Manderly's liege lord. This is how he refers to Robb Stark as well.

I don't know about the other Northern lords, but I find it hard to believe that Manderly would just betray Stannis. Maybe he doesn't know about / isn't part of the GNC. If Davos does deliver Rickon, I think that at least Manderly would back Stannis.

3. As a side note,I would like to point out that Manderly may not necessarily know that it is Rickon that Davis is after. Wex says that he saw two Stark boys alive, but he only followed one. Bran, being the elder, would have the stronger claim. While we know that Bran might become a tree and possible never return to Winterfell, Manderly doesn't know that - so he has no reason to write Bran off. I want to point out that Manderly might only know that Davos is tracking one of the Stark boys, and not Rickon in particular. This doesn't have much significance, of course, as both their claims trump Arya's.

1. He would take Stannis as his king. But Wyman says nothing about White Harbour or House Manderly. Only about himself. And he is pretty much intending to go out in a blaze of glory. His heir won't be bound by anything.

2. His liege lord is Bran. Not Rickon. Davos can't uphold his end of the bargain and thus Manderly isn't bound by it as well. And of course Manderly knows which boy Wex followed.

In my opinion, Manderly doesn't plot to betray Stannis, but he plays his cards close to the vest and will follow the Stark's decision whatever it is. King in the North? No promise to be broken. Lord Paramount? Works as well.

Seeing how proud Manderly seemed to be of Wylla reciting the promise of loyalty to the Starks in front of their enemies, I think its is a reasonable conclusion that Manderly is determined to see and make sure that the Starks return.

While fairly easy to take at face value, a few things just don't seem right. I mean, why is he even sending Davos in the first place - and more to the point, alone and unsupervised to fetch his supposed liege lord? We know Davos is a good guy and would probably honour these conditions but how would Wyman know that? He is given an extreme mission of importance to a man who has no allegiance to Manderly or the North. Something about this that just doesn't sit right with me.

Besides, doesn't swearing his loyalty to Stannis, somewhat violate the ancient promise made to house Stark to be only Stark men? So it could make him an oathbreaker, or at the very least a manipulator of one side or the other, so I don't think the assumption that Manderly would keep his word should be set in stone.

Alone and unsupervised? How do you get that idea? At the very worst, Davos needs a ship and a crew. Out of Manderly's men, since he hasn't any of Stannis'. Three ships and their crew are more likely, to account for storms. Or maybe all fifty. Full of White Harbor men, hundreds or thousands of them to a sole Davos. And where is Robett Glover? He's available. On top of dozens of Manderly's own officers.

[Bleiz]

Ah my mistake, I misunderstood the plan :dunce: