A Game of Two Players – Varys vs. Doran Martell

[Good Guy Garlan]

Good analysis, I like it. I don't necessarily think Varys meant Doran in that dialogue, but they certainly have been fighting in the shadows for a while, as you say

I also think that Quentyn really slipped away from Varys' grasp, though I like your theory about the pirate ship. Of course, Quentyn was an absolute loser and Dany should have accepted his offer, luckily for Varys

I also think Doran messed up big time allowing Arianne to carry on with her plan to kill Myrcella. He should have kept Myrcella closer to be used as a plan B, should Tommen, Dany and Aegon fail.

[fuelpagan_tw]

Very well put together, but one of the big pieces missing is the real Varys Game round 1 that started much earlier.

Varys manufactured the opportunity to install fAegon starting with "the rot in King Aerys reign." The Defiance at Duskendale making Aerys look like a fool. The Kingswood Brotherhood that ended with the Knighting of Jaime Lannister. The plot to install Jaime in the KingsGuard unbeknownst to Tywin causing Tywin to go back to Casterly Rock. Roberts Rebellion after the birth of Aegon. The Battle of the Bells that Jon C escaped from but was then exiled for losing. Varys is setting up the conditions that will allow him to steal Aegons claim with this Blackfyre child.

The two players I believe Varys is referring to are the Targaryens vs the Blackfyres. That would be Illyrio and Varys vs Bloodraven. Doran is definitely a major player now, but with Varys hoping Dorne will support "Elia's child", I don't think Varys sees Doran as his main adversary.