Daenerys, Rhaenys and Dornish Law

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

If the poster above was arguing that Doran will believe Aegon is not Rhaegar's son, but will still choose to support him as if he were anyway, I could at least see that as a possibility.

What I don't see as a possibility is Doran openly asserting that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son, telling the world that he is actually a Blackfyre, but still supporting and trying to convince others to support him on that basis.

That just sounds absurd to me. It doesn't make any sense.

Furthermore, Aegon appears to have been raised to believe he was Rhaegar's son. Jon has been brought on board and raised him for the last 10 years believing that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and raising him as such. That doesn't mean it is true, but it is clearly essential that Aegon himself actually believe this to be true.

Doran asserting publicly that he is not Rhaegar's son, that he is actually a Blackfyre, but that he supports him anyway, and that others should support him too, just seems like a ridiculous and terrible plan, especially for someone that has laid low for nearly two decades waiting for the right opportunity to strike in a way that is lasting.

I expect Aegon to be suspected or accused by some of not being Rhaegar's son. I imagine that he has been trained to some extent to anticipate and deal with suspicion or accusations that he is not Rhaegar's son. But I don't see him making alliances with people spreading such assertions, nor do I see anyone that would spread such assertions making alliances with him.

I don't see how Aegon's ability to marry Arienne justifies the above theory. The issue isn't so much that Doran would choose to support someone he suspected of being a Blackfyre, it is the notion of stating it in the open, and actually trying to justify it with some nonsense about Baelor's sisters over a century ago.

As for "not being a part of the Targaryen family that betrayed the Martells," Aegon was his beloved sister's son. He would have no reason to be hostile toward him if he was really Aegon, or really thought he was Aegon, even if he had hostility toward Aerys and Rhaegar. And Aerys, whatever his madness, still did not murder Elia and her children. Those that removed the Targs from power did.

It's not that complicated

Doran would support Aegon if he were real or if he were a Blackfyre. It doesn't matter which really. Both options are more attractive than Viserys or Dany.

Viserys and Dany are not Doran's choice since they are the children that were sent away safely while the Martells were left to die. They are Aerys' legacy and Doran wants vengeance.

But, Doran wants people to think he is supporting Dany because he wants his enemies (i.e. the Yronwoods and the Tyrells) to think she is the winning side. So, Doran puts in empty shows of support (Braavos Pact, Quentyn Quest) without actually putting in any real effort in.

And he wants his enemies to think Dany is the attractive option - he may have been responsible for hatching the dragons. Doran will reveal that Aegon is a Blackfyre and his enemies will flock to Dany.

Then, he springs the trap. Dorne is historically built to withstand dragons. Additionally, has studied how to kill dragons (one of Arianne's books).

And under Dornish Law, Blackfyres are the true kings. The people will flock to Aegon, who was raised under the Faith of the Seven. And its Dorne that will control the High Sparrow.

[Bael's Bastard]

Absurd nonsense. NOBODY knows about the pact about Viserys. And he pursues Dany with his eldest son WITHOUT any pact regarding her. There was no "show" here. Nobody has any idea. He clearly holds no grudge against Aerys' children, and certainly not against his sister's children. He was willing to give either of his top two heirs in marriage to Viserys or Dany, while Aegon is news to him.

How do you figure that under Dornish law the Blackfyres are true kings? That is total baseless nonsense. The Blackfyres never ruled anything, and are over a century removed from the Targaryens that the Dornish have actually been allied with for over a century, including two royal marriages, and every king between them descended from Myriah Martell, and the Martells since them descended from the first Daenerys.

It makes no sense for Doran to openly support someone as a Blackfyre. To support someone he doubts is his nephew for ulterior motives? Perhaps. To openly accept and encourage others to accept a Blackfyre? That is ridiculous, and there is no basis for Doran to do such a thing. It is bad fan fiction.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Absurd nonsense. NOBODY knows about the pact about Viserys. And he pursues Dany with his eldest son WITHOUT any pact regarding her. There was no "show" here. Nobody has any idea. He clearly holds no grudge against Aerys' children, and certainly not against his sister's children. He was willing to give either of his top two heirs in marriage to Viserys or Dany, while Aegon is news to him.

How do you figure that under Dornish law the Blackfyres are true kings? That is total baseless nonsense. The Blackfyres never ruled anything, and are over a century removed from the Targaryens that the Dornish have actually been allied with for over a century, including two royal marriages, and every king between them descended from Myriah Martell, and the Martells since them descended from the first Daenerys.

It makes no sense for Doran to openly support someone as a Blackfyre. To support someone he doubts is his nephew for ulterior motives? Perhaps. To openly accept and encourage others to accept a Blackfyre? That is ridiculous, and there is no basis for Doran to do such a thing. It is bad fan fiction.

The Yronwoods know about the pact. And, yes, he pursues Dany with the Braavos Pact because Doran actually wants it to fail. The whole thing is for show. The Braavos Pact and the Quentyn Quest make no sense otherwise. Had Doran actually wanted them to work, there would be so many things he could have done to make them work better (i.e. give Quentyn a book on dragons, give him ravens, dress him better).

And I never said he holds any grudge against Aegon. I said he would hold them against Viserys and Dany. I don't think Doran wants to kill Dany necessarily, but he certainly doesn't want anything resembling an Aerys legacy continuing.

I could see open support of a Blackfyre as long as the people want a Blackfyre. If he convinces the High Sparrow that he is right man to back, he would have that.

[Frey family reunion]

Absurd nonsense. NOBODY knows about the pact about Viserys. And he pursues Dany with his eldest son WITHOUT any pact regarding her. There was no "show" here. Nobody has any idea. He clearly holds no grudge against Aerys' children, and certainly not against his sister's children. He was willing to give either of his top two heirs in marriage to Viserys or Dany, while Aegon is news to him.

How do you figure that under Dornish law the Blackfyres are true kings? That is total baseless nonsense. The Blackfyres never ruled anything, and are over a century removed from the Targaryens that the Dornish have actually been allied with for over a century, including two royal marriages, and every king between them descended from Myriah Martell, and the Martells since them descended from the first Daenerys.

It makes no sense for Doran to openly support someone as a Blackfyre. To support someone he doubts is his nephew for ulterior motives? Perhaps. To openly accept and encourage others to accept a Blackfyre? That is ridiculous, and there is no basis for Doran to do such a thing. It is bad fan fiction.

I hesitate to get involved in this debate because I've hashed it out on so many threads I'm frankly getting kind of bored with it, but I'll give it one more try.

1. The first thing to take into account is not to believe anything that Doran tells his daughter or his nieces. As he has indicated he doesn't trust them to keep their mouths shut. So if he tells Arianne he just learned of Aegon's claim in Connington's letter, and he is on the fence about whether Aegon is his nephew don't believe it. My guess is Doran's support is so crucial to Varys and Illyrio's invasion of Westeros that Doran has already been made a part of the conspiracy.

2. Doran is crucial because he 1) supplies additional troops including the soldiers from long time Blackfyre supporters House Yronwood, 2) They need Doran to vouch for "Aegon" legitimacy as his "nephew" because otherwise it is doubtful that Targaryen loyalists are going to believe Connington's very dubious claim about the boy's legitimacy especially since it requires believing Varys' account of what happened during the sack.

3. Dont' forget about the importance of House Yronwood who can probably field as many men as House Martell. House Yronwood has been noted to be long time Blackfyre loyalists and supported House Blackfyre in all of their rebellions. Thus to meet their mutual goals House Martell and House Yronwood has to set aside their many mutual differences and come together on a claimant that they can both support.

4. Viserys is a wash out because he was unable to convince any of the sellsword companies or Free Cities to give him any support. Especially the services of the Golden Company perhaps the most capable sellsword company of all.

5. In addition I assume Viserys' winning personality would have come to Doran's attention probably through his close relationship with the Archon of Tyrosh. Doran's interest is more than revenge he wants to put his house back in power by marrying Arianne to the next usurper king. He's probably a bit skittish of crazy Targaryens after his sister was held hostage by the last Targaryen King, Aerys.

5. At some point Varys would have approached Doran about their potential claimant. It is very doubtful that Varys could have convinced Doran with the same cover story that they used to convince Connington. Doran's smarter and he's not as desperate as Connington to believe such an unlikely tale. In addition it is doubtful that Aegon as Rhaegar's son would have convinced House Yronwood to join their cause.

7. I'm assuming that Varys and Illyrio must have some way to convince Lord Yronwood and Doran of Aegon's legitimacy through the maternal line of House Blackfyre. House Yronwood would be eager to back a Blackfyre claimant and Doran can justify marrying Arianne to Aegon because it can be argued that Daena the defiant's lineage under Dornish law are the rightful claimants to the throne.

8. In addition, Aegon ability to secure the Golden Company gives Doran additional troops that Viserys can't in his attempt to reclaim the throne, and punish the Lannisters. Remember Doran is very secretive and very cautious, he doesn't wish to risk Dorne's limited troops in a battle that he might not win. The Golden Company in his mind could do the brunt of the fighting minimizing the loss of his troops and maximizing their chance to win.

9. Viserys death and Dany's emergence with three dragons certainly made Doran, Illyrio, and Varys revise their plans pretty quick. Now I think there all parties are very eager to get their hands on Dany's dragons, but if I had to guess, despite talk to the contrary they would rather not have to share power with the wildcard that is Daenaerys Targaryen.

10. Perhaps independent of Illyrio's own plans regarding Dany, Doran and Lord Yronwood send Quentyn, Yronwood's son and other household knights and a master from Yronwood to Mereen to allegedly woo Dany. Which is interesting because Yronwood's youngest daughter apparently believes that she is to marry Quentyn when she comes of age. My guess is this is a feint. Remember Doran says he is the grass that hides the viper. I think what they are trying to do is lure Dany and her dragons to Dorne and make her believe she has a friend in House Martell. However, I highly doubt that Dany is meant to survive longer than it would take to procure her dragons and/or help in the conquest of King's Landing. I think the plan is still to marry Arianne to Aegon and marry Quentyn to Yronwood's daughter. Doran is trying to appear to Dany as the nice safe grass.

11. In any case at this point, whether from his plan, Illyrio's plan or a combination of both, Doran is expecting Dany, her army, and her dragons to arrive in Westeros with the Golden Company.

12. Aegon's decision to go it alone surprises Doran, a man who probably is not a big fan of surprises. This is why he sends Arianne and a retinue to Aegon with instructions to tell him whether the Golden Company arrived with dragons and to tell him of the strength of Aegon's forces. Doran is playing coy about his knowledge of this invasion until he can figure out if the troops that have arrived are sufficient for him to risk his forces.

13. Connington's great surprise at Doran not committing his forces to his is probably the result of assurances given to Connington by Illyrio that Dorne was already in the bag for them. I think both underestimated Doran's cautiousness.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Frey, I think your explanation is pretty good, but I think Doran is somehow trying to screw over House Yronwood as well.

The Quentyn Quest has far too many weird pieces to be a simple luring of Dany: the lack of resources, the killing of the maester, the weird leadership of Drink, the Windblown. I haven't figured it out, but it definitely seems like Doran wanted the plan to fail.

I also don't think Doran is one to put aside grudges. The Yronwoods have wronged the Martells and have never really paid for it.

Keep in mind, Oberyn (as a Yronwood ward) was probably innocent of poisoning Edgar Yronwood. Oberyn had not studied poisons yet, nor even had the opportunity to study them since he was a ward of the Yronwoods. Additionally, Edgar's "paramour" is not his wife and I don't really see Oberyn's crime here. (Of course, I'm not Dornish).

Oberyn is exiled for years and then Quentyn is stuck following suit as a ward.

Assuming Oberyn is innocent of the poisoning, the Yronwoods have never really paid for this wronging.