Marriage of Rhaegar and Lyanna Revisited

[mambru]

Strange how there are no archers there. Not that that would be relevant of course. /sarcasm

You know for a fact that NONE of the six men with Ned were equipped with bows and arrows and adept in the use of them? Interesting. That whole new-fangled missile weapons thing is actually pretty useful in war, and all of Ned's men have just been through a war...not to mention we've seen that many a nobleman has been trained in their use (Theon, for one, and I'm sure you can think of others). Could you please point me to that paragraph about the equipment and skills of Ned's men where it says none of them had or could bend a bow?

You ignore (again) the single most important factor in the fight. Not only must they survive, they must kill all of their opponents because if any escape their last hope, that secrecy has been maintained, is lost. But the enemy is mounted, and more numerous and with the strategic initiative due to Lyanna's illness and Jon's recent birth.

That means they must tactically draw the enemy in, force him to commit to a fight he thinks he can win.

I'd say that a tower in your own territory is a fine place to "draw the enemy in". They would even have the unwitting help of the screams of Lyanna to make Ned and his men forget caution and lure them in too quick to watch for traps. When you're facing a number of men that exceeds your own, making them walk through doors that limit them going through one or two at a time into unfamiliar rooms that you have arranged skilled ambushes in will narrow those unequal numbers down quicker than facing them all at once while you're on foot and they're on horseback, out in the open.

You're forgetting those horses, too. By facing Ned's 6 on horseback while the 3 KG stand afoot, the ToJ 3 are putting any of Ned's men in the perfect position to gallop off for help if they see that the other six men are getting the worst of the fight. If the ToJ 3's aim is really to "kill all of their opponents because if any escape their last hope, that secrecy has been maintained, is lost", then surely it would be vital for the ToJ 3 to get Ned's men OFF and AWAY FROM their freakin' horses. The best way to do that is to lure Ned's men into the tower (where horses, I believe, can't follow) and have one KG concealed outside to kill Ned's horses (and whatever man was left to guard them) and cut off their retreat.

But the KG stood outside and called out their challenge while Ned's men were on horseback. To me it looks like they want to show off their martial skills at the risk of having one of the enemy become too impressed with their skill and riding off for help. It's like the KG said "Behold my might! Take that and that and that! You there, on the horse! Come down and take your turn to be slaughtered! Oh, he's...riding off for reinforcements. What a craven. I guess our Sekrit is blown and our "last hope" is lost. Oh, well." To me, that doesn't look like a huge strategic investment in victory at all costs for the ToJ 3.

Besides, doesn't the very FACT that Ned showed up outside the tower with his men show that the Super Special Sekrit has been blown already?

[Ygrain]

Ned would view them as "shining examples of Kingsguard" (as you put it)

I just loosely paraphrased his own words:

Something his father had told him once when he was little came back to him suddenly. He had asked Lord Eddard if the Kingsguard were truly the finest knights in the Seven Kingdoms. “No longer,” he answered, “but once they were a marvel, a shining lesson to the world.”

“Was there one who was best of all?”

“The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed.” Father had gotten sad then, and he would say no more. Bran wished he had asked him what he meant.

In other words:

- the current KG are nowhere next to KG standards, hence the action of Ser Arys, Boros etc. cannot be taken for a golden standard

- Barristan, though honourable in Ned's eyes, is not the top notch

- in Ned's eyes, Dayne was all that a KG is supposed to be, and died true to his vows

Barristan wavered in the loyalty to the king to whom he swore and bent knee to Robert, Dayne didn't. Yet, this is not enough to consider Dayne an exemplary KG as his actions at ToJ had nothing to do with service to Aerys' supposedly last surviving heir, Viserys, who had no KG by his side. Time and again, we hear throughout the series that the KG are supposed to die for their king (try checking out how many times the idea surfaces, you will be surprised), it is the utmost expression of their loyalty, an ultimate sacrifice for the one they are sworn to. That is what makes a KG so admirable - not the skill with the sword, not any badassery, but the sacrifice, for the king. Dying for anything else doesn't make them exemplary kingsguard, and dying at ToJ had nothing to do with Viserys, hence the only reason why Ned expresses so much admiration for Dayne is that Dayne indeed died for his king, and that king cannot be Viserys.

[Ygrain]

You know for a fact that NONE of the six men with Ned were equipped with bows and arrows and adept in the use of them? Interesting. That whole new-fangled missile weapons thing is actually pretty useful in war, and all of Ned's men have just been through a war...not to mention we've seen that many a nobleman has been trained in their use (Theon, for one, and I'm sure you can think of others). Could you please point me to that paragraph about the equipment and skills of Ned's men where it says none of them had or could bend a bow?

GRRM may have made some blunders with the use of broadswords but he apparently knows that European-style bows are not made to be used from saddle (you can check the part with Bran and deserters in the woods, where Theon is mounted like everyone else but when he takes out Stiv, he has dismounted). Since Ned and his friends were riding, none of them apparently had their bow ready, if they had one, so you're arguing a strawman here.

[The other prince]

You ignore (again) the single most important factor in the fight. Not only must they survive, they must kill all of their opponents because if any escape their last hope, that secrecy has been maintained, is lost. But the enemy is mounted, and more numerous and with the strategic initiative due to Lyanna's illness and Jon's recent birth.

That means they must tactically draw the enemy in, force him to commit to a fight he thinks he can win. And that means not making it too difficult, but giving their opponent the appearance at least of a likely win, but only if he commits all his forces.

Just to point something out here. There would be no secrecy any longer anyway. Ned and company were able to find the TOJ. So unless we think that they just wondered around Westeros until they happened upon Lyanna the secret was pretty much out. Either Ned figured it out some how or someone told him. Either way there is no reason to believe that no one else could have figured it out as well.

Strange how there are no archers there. Not that that would be relevant of course. /sarcasm

This has been discussed under a different topic. People seem to be under the impression that a long bow could go through armor like a hot knife through butter. This is not the case at all. The shot had to be perfect for it to have a chance of penatrating armor enough for a kill shot. Or even for a severe injury for that matter.

[UnmaskedLurker]

You're forgetting those horses, too. By facing Ned's 6 on horseback while the 3 KG stand afoot, the ToJ 3 are putting any of Ned's men in the perfect position to gallop off for help if they see that the other six men are getting the worst of the fight. If the ToJ 3's aim is really to "kill all of their opponents because if any escape their last hope, that secrecy has been maintained, is lost", then surely it would be vital for the ToJ 3 to get Ned's men OFF and AWAY FROM their freakin' horses. The best way to do that is to lure Ned's men into the tower (where horses, I believe, can't follow) and have one KG concealed outside to kill Ned's horses (and whatever man was left to guard them) and cut off their retreat.

But the KG stood outside and called out their challenge while Ned's men were on horseback. To me it looks like they want to show off their martial skills at the risk of having one of the enemy become too impressed with their skill and riding off for help. It's like the KG said "Behold my might! Take that and that and that! You there, on the horse! Come down and take your turn to be slaughtered! Oh, he's...riding off for reinforcements. What a craven. I guess our Sekrit is blown and our "last hope" is lost. Oh, well." To me, that doesn't look like a huge strategic investment in victory at all costs for the ToJ 3.

Besides, doesn't the very FACT that Ned showed up outside the tower with his men show that the Super Special Sekrit has been blown already?

You keep arguing in the same manner that if you had been there, and if you were trying to kill Ned and his group, you would have used a different strategy. Obviously, the strategy the KG used was not perfect because they died (which had to happen for the story to work). Maybe a different strategy would have worked better and maybe not, we cannot know. But what you have not shown is that it is implausible that the KG could possibly have considered this strategy their best strategy. It is always possible to second guess people's decisions made under pressure. I believe it was plausible that under the conditions at hand, it was plausible that the 3 KG would have considered this approach to be their best chance at killing all seven enemies. They might have believed that any other approach had too much of a chance of one of them getting away, which they could not risk. While we cannot get into their minds, we know their actions and a pretty good idea of their words from Ned's dream--as well as Ned's view of Dayne as the greatest KG he knew. All of this evidence, taken together, make sense only if the KG were guarding the king--Jon. You cannot pick and choose which pieces of evidence you want to ignore.

[mambru]

GRRM may have made some blunders with the use of broadswords but he apparently knows that European-style bows are not made to be used from saddle (you can check the part with Bran and deserters in the woods, where Theon is mounted like everyone else but when he takes out Stiv, he has dismounted). Since Ned and his friends were riding, none of them apparently had their bow ready, if they had one, so you're arguing a strawman here.

Crossbows can be used from horseback. And crossbows do not require huge investments of practice to be accurate with. Just ask Joffrey and his cats.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Just to point something out here. There would be no secrecy any longer anyway. Ned and company were able to find the TOJ. So unless we think that they just wondered around Westeros until they happened upon Lyanna the secret was pretty much out. Either Ned figured it out some how or someone told him. Either way there is no reason to believe that no one else could have figured it out as well.

I disagree to some extent with your secrecy point. The 3 KG might fear that the secret was out, but if they let any of the seven escape, then there would be no doubt and the speed at which reinforcements would come would be much quicker. We actually know in hindsight that the secrecy was not breached--as no one ever seems to mention that Lyanna was being kept at ToJ. Of course, the KG could not know this for sure, but their best chance at keeping the location secret as long as possible was to kill all seven. The critical aspect to the secrecy point is the need to kill all seven--thus explaining the actions of the KG at ToJ. If the KG had succeeded, I suspect they would have accelerated their plans to leave ToJ, but they likely had more time to make their get-away if none of the seven survived to confirm the location and bring reinforcements immediately. The 3 KG had to take a chance that either the secrecy was not broken (which it turns out would have been a correct guess) or even if it might have been, it was only one of other possible locations that were being searched and they had some time before others came to ToJ to find out why Ned never returned.

[The other prince]

Crossbows can be used from horseback. And crossbows do not require huge investments of practice to be accurate with. Just ask Joffrey and his cats.

Again a shot from a crossbow is not a guaranteed kill or even injury. Medieval armor was often tested against longbows/crossbows to determine quality. So even if Ned and his men or any of the KG for that matter had either, it doesn't automatically change any outcomes. It is always going to be easy to look back in hindsight and be critical of strategy. It is like watching a football game twice knowing the outcome of each play. Of course you going to see things that you wuld have done differently but that is because you know that what was done didn't work.

[Ygrain]

Just to point something out here. There would be no secrecy any longer anyway. Ned and company were able to find the TOJ. So unless we think that they just wondered around Westeros until they happened upon Lyanna the secret was pretty much out. Either Ned figured it out some how or someone told him. Either way there is no reason to believe that no one else could have figured it out as well.

How does Ned turning up with 6 of his retainers mean that the knowledge is a public thing now? If anything, it shows that Ned is trying to keep the whole thing under the lid, as well, or else he would have brought an army.

Crossbows can be used from horseback. And crossbows do not require huge investments of practice to be accurate with. Just ask Joffrey and his cats.

Well, you were the one mentioning bows and Theon in your previous post, and defence against arrows. I'm sure that with your expertise you know that crossbows shoot bolts, not arrows.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Crossbows can be used from horseback. And crossbows do not require huge investments of practice to be accurate with. Just ask Joffrey and his cats.

But they did not have crossbows, so what is your point? We know that Ned and his group had to come prepared for battle, as they could not know what they would find at ToJ. So maybe crossbows would have been helpful to them (maybe not as they are basically one shot at a time and then difficult to reload) or maybe not, but they did not bring any. So what?

[mambru]

This has been discussed under a different topic. People seem to be under the impression that a long bow could go through armor like a hot knife through butter. This is not the case at all. The shot had to be perfect for it to have a chance of penatrating armor enough for a kill shot. Or even for a severe injury for that matter.

Yes, but the ToJ KG were not wearing their helmets while they stood waiting outside the tower to talk to Ned. Therefore their faces were not armored, and were vulnerable to arrows. If the KG went out of their tower to meet Ned without putting their helmets on, they were either fully confident that Ned was honorable enough to speak to them like a gentleman without first trying to riddle their faces with arrows (crossbow arrows, if you like), OR they were really past caring whether or not they lived through this battle (in which case the survival of Jon was the last thing on their minds, and therefore they weren't considering Jon the King or themselves his Kingsguard).

[Ygritte]

I understand why people don't get it at first. For example, when someone joins the forum and asks why the fight occurred. Yet, it turns out that there is a simple and compelling answer. It's pretty much what Amonra said. Ned was a rebel. Rebels had murdered Rhaegar's children. The motivation for the fight is provided in the text. The 'going out in a blaze of glory' stuff is just textually unsupported guess work.

This. Ned, as it turns out, hid Jon and protected him from Robert. The KG had no way of knowing, though, that he would do that. Even if he said he would. Even if Lyanna vouched for him. All they know is he's on Robert's side in the war, that some of Robert's other allies just killed Rhaegar's other kids, and if they knew Ned at all, that he's devoted to his duty. What would they think Ned would see as his duty? Even Lyanna wasn't certain. Hence the pleading and the promise.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Yes, but the ToJ KG were not wearing their helmets while they stood waiting outside the tower to talk to Ned. Therefore their faces were not armored, and were vulnerable to arrows. If the KG went out of their tower to meet Ned without putting their helmets on, they were either fully confident that Ned was honorable enough to speak to them like a gentleman without first trying to riddle their faces with arrows (crossbow arrows, if you like), OR they were really past caring whether or not they lived through this battle (in which case the survival of Jon was the last thing on their minds, and therefore they weren't considering Jon the King or themselves his Kingsguard).

OR they could see before they came out that his group had no arrows or crossbows OR they were confident that they could shield their faces in time if one of the group pulled out an arrow or crossbow OR a million other possible reasons. Just because your imagination does not see the alternative does not mean an alternative is not there.

[The other prince]

I disagree to some extent with your secrecy point. The 3 KG might fear that the secret was out, but if they let any of the seven escape, then there would be no doubt and the speed at which reinforcements would come would be much quicker. We actually know in hindsight that the secrecy was not breached--as no one ever seems to mention that Lyanna was being kept at ToJ. Of course, the KG could not know this for sure, but their best chance at keeping the location secret as long as possible was to kill all seven. The critical aspect to the secrecy point is the need to kill all seven--thus explaining the actions of the KG at ToJ. If the KG had succeeded, I suspect they would have accelerated their plans to leave ToJ, but they likely had more time to make their get-away if none of the seven survived to confirm the location and bring reinforcements immediately. The 3 KG had to take a chance that either the secrecy was not broken (which it turns out would have been a correct guess) or even if it might have been, it was only one of other possible locations that were being searched and they had some time before others came to ToJ to find out why Ned never returned.

While I still say the Secrecy was blown at this point, I do think you have hit the mark with a couple of points. For example even though 7 to 3 is good odds for Ned 37 to 3 is better. It is likely that Ned was afraid if he took time to gather even more reinforcements he may miss the KG. Also knowing that the location of the TOJ was out they may have been more willing to risk moving Lyanna had they won.

[UnmaskedLurker]

While I still say the Secrecy was blown at this point, I do think you have hit the mark with a couple of points. For example even though 7 to 3 is good odds for Ned 37 to 3 is better. It is likely that Ned was afraid if he took time to gather even more reinforcements he may miss the KG. Also knowing that the location of the TOJ was out they may have been more willing to risk moving Lyanna had they won.

Wait? I thought you were arguing that the KG would have believed that secrecy was blown, which is possible. But if you are arguing that in fact secrecy was blown--i.e., that many others knew that Lyanna was being kept at ToJ, I think you are mistaken. We don't know exactly how Ned found ToJ, but even after Hightower found ToJ, the KG still thought that the location was secret. So Hightower found out in a way that did not generally breach secrecy. Maybe Ashara or someone else close to Dayne knew, but it did not become widely known. We basically know from surrounding facts that the secrecy was not blown by Ned and his group. No one else ever seems to mention Lyanna having been kept at that tower. When Ned brings back her body, no one seems to know where she was being kept, and Ned does not seem to tell anyone. Why do you think secrecy was, in fact, blown at that point?

Of course, I am not sure it really matters to the story. The point is that if the 3 KG had defeated Ned and his group, they probably could not risk staying around much longer--but they likely had more time as long as they killed all seven. That is the fact that is important to the story.

[mambru]

But they did not have crossbows, so what is your point?

How do you know they don't have crossbows? More importantly, how does the KG know that Ned's men don't have crossbows when they stroll out to sit and wait for Ned to ride up, while they let the wind blow theatrically through their hair (instead of putting their helmets on to be ready for battle in case Ned decides to attack straight off instead of politely drawing up his horse and chatting with them?) How does the KG know that Ned will leave them time to leisurely finish sharpening their swords (as one of them was doing) instead of taking advantage of their unreadiness to attack before the KG have a chance to put on their helmets, hastily drop their whetting stone and scramble to their feet?

The unworn helmets, the seated position, the sharpening of the sword in full view of the enemy instead of already having it prepared to strike...none of that looks to me like three men marching out ready for battle and absolutely determined to win (otherwise they wouldn't have conceded all those advantages they didn't have to). All that points to either two possibilities to me - either they're convinced that Ned is an honorable gentleman who will politely wait for them to be ready for battle while they pronounce those prideful eulogies for themselves - or else they don't particularly care if Ned kills them or not - which means they're not particularly interested in Jon's survival, and therefore don't consider him their king.

[The other prince]

How does Ned turning up with 6 of his retainers mean that the knowledge is a public thing now? If anything, it shows that Ned is trying to keep the whole thing under the lid, as well, or else he would have brought an army.

I would prefer to not argue because I normally agree with you but while maybe not public knowledge it was obviously not impossible to figure out at this point either. Either Ned figured it out (in whichcase someone else would too) or someone told him. Either way once Ned arrived the KG would know they couldn't rely on location anymore. As I said the reason Ned probably didn't get an army (or at least more men) is that he was afraid he would get to the TOJ and the KG and Lyanna would be gone. Ned was a very deliberate and even somewhat cautious leader. While 7 to 3 are good odds their victory was anything but certain.

[Ygritte]

How do you know they don't have crossbows? More importantly, how does the KG know that Ned's men don't have crossbows when they stroll out to sit and wait for Ned to ride up, while they let the wind blow theatrically through their hair (instead of putting their helmets on to be ready for battle in case Ned decides to attack straight off instead of politely drawing up his horse and chatting with them?) How does the KG know that Ned will leave them time to leisurely finish sharpening their swords (as one of them was doing) instead of taking advantage of their unreadiness to attack before the KG have a chance to put on their helmets, hastily drop their whetting stone and scramble to their feet?

The unworn helmets, the seated position, the sharpening of the sword in full view of the enemy instead of already having it prepared to strike...none of that looks to me like three men marching out ready for battle and absolutely determined to win (otherwise they wouldn't have conceded all those advantages they wouldn't have to). All that points to either two possibilities to me - either they're convinced that Ned is an honorable gentleman who will politely wait for them to be ready for battle while they pronounce those prideful eulogies for themselves - or else they don't particularly care if Ned kills them or not - which means they're not particularly interested in Jon's survival, and therefore don't consider him their king.

The dream isn't 100% literal, though. We don't know that they paused to give soliloquies in the exact manner they did in the dream. Ned's mind may be backfilling the encounter with the information he got later from Lyanna, just like he backfills the "Now it ends" line with the hindsight of knowing who won the fight.

[The other prince]

Yes, but the ToJ KG were not wearing their helmets while they stood waiting outside the tower to talk to Ned. Therefore their faces were not armored, and were vulnerable to arrows. If the KG went out of their tower to meet Ned without putting their helmets on, they were either fully confident that Ned was honorable enough to speak to them like a gentleman without first trying to riddle their faces with arrows (crossbow arrows, if you like), OR they were really past caring whether or not they lived through this battle (in which case the survival of Jon was the last thing on their minds, and therefore they weren't considering Jon the King or themselves his Kingsguard).

I would imagine they could fairly well see if any of Neds men had cross bows. There were only seven men, and it doesn't take all day to put a helmet on. While I certainly think the KG were willing to die (and would consider this an honorable death) had they wanted to die they would just not have worn any armor.

[WhitewolfStark]

Speaking of Arys Oakheart, he acknowledges the point Arianne makes that he never swore any vows to King Tommen, which is why he could justifiably support Myrcella's claim over Tommen's. This would imply that vows aren't inherited, but rather they need to be renewed or resworn for a new king. Now sure, in most cases it goes without saying that the Kingsguard will continue their duties during the transition of power. But the end of Robert's Rebellion are hardly normal, and with the king, his heir, and his heir's heir dead, it is certainly reasonable to think that the normal transfer of kingsguard oaths have been disrupted.

You bring up a point here that was a major issue in RL (every time an old King dies the new King has to renew all the oaths of fealty by having everyone come and swear to him), and while it gets mentioned in ASOIAF (especially in light of Robert's death), I've noticed a lot of readers generally seem to ignore it, which an actual person of medieval origin wouldn't and it would be a tremendous deal for.

Until an oath is renewed that person doesn't technically recognize them as their king.