WotfK - Ned's the LP in the North

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Presumably the negotiation would include some kind of compromise, such that neither Tywin nor Robert would be interested in a war afterwards. If they were prudent, they would get Ned and any other stakeholders on board as well.

Otherwise Tywin just gave up a lot of leverage for nothing. Say what you will about Tywin, but that is not the sort of mistake he usually makes.

If he got Ned on board with that. Otherwise Ned probably dies, but Stag, Direwolf, Trout, Falcon and Kraken siege the Rock and eradicate Tywin's line.

According to the Word map the Golden Tooth is nowhere near the Riverland border, it has also been stated in most of the books that the Riverlands has no natural boundaries. It stands to reason that a smaller army (the Riverland one) would need some kind of boundary to stop a larger army.

Tywin played Edmure. He sent Gregor in without banners and publicly raised his host while refusing to answer Edmures responses. Edmure reacted by sending an Riverland army in the West and Tywin was able to legally retaliate. Not only did he play Edmure but by forcing Edmure to act first he is able to justify his actions to Robert.

If the battle took place in Riverlands territory it would be known as a different name but its not.

He manipulated Edmure into doing something he shouldn't have.

We know that the Riverlanders did not attack the Westerlands. Ned himself confirms that. They were attacked in their entirely legitimate camp inside the Riverlands.

The Riverlands attacked Tywin officially.

Nope. Never left the Riverlands.

[Alester Florent]

If he got Ned on board with that. Otherwise Ned probably dies, but Stag, Direwolf, Trout, Falcon and Kraken siege the Rock and eradicate Tywin's line.

I think you're probably overly optimistic about the pull Ned has with the other LPs, Robert's own torpitude, and, as far as it goes, Ned's honour (and for that matter, the others'). I think the most likely chain of events if Ned is captured while Robert survives is that Tywin sues for peace, blames the whole thing on the Tullys, and agrees to let Ned go in exchange for a full pardon for both him and Tyrion, and that Bob goes along with it because it's easier and he doesn't want another large-scale civil war.

Once that's settled, even if they want to, Ned can't take action against Tywin without breaking his promises, or the promises the king made on his behalf. The Tullys will likely be chastised and with their tails between their legs: Edmure will have been released on the same basis as Ned; Hoster's still dying; and Brynden is still in the Vale. Renly and Stannis, even if they wanted to take action, have no clear motive and are bound by the same issue as Ned. Lysa Arryn couldn't be happier not to get involved in this sort of crap anyway, and in the absence of any evidence to do with Jon Arryn, the Vale knights aren't going to be taking the initiative. Balon Greyjoy likewise: he couldn't give a toss.

That a coalition of the anti-Lannisters marches to Casterly Rock (which is rumoured in any case to be impregnable, so winkling Tywin out of it would be tricky) and smashes them up is an attractive idea, but overlooks the political realities, and assumes a level of cooperation between the enemies of the Lannisters that's been almost entirely absent from the series as it's actually gone. Even Renly and Ned couldn't coordinate themselves when it really mattered, and they were in the same room.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Tywin can't blame it on the Tullys. He himself attacked the Hand of the King, flying the King's banner. That is high treason.

[Alester Florent]

Like how Jaime attacked the Hand of the King in the street and got off scot free?

But the Mummer's Ford was Gregor Clegane acting without orders from Tywin. Naturally, he was appalled and immediately chastised his bannerman for his irresponsible actions, and had Ned brought to him immediately as befits someone of his station. And he's perfectly happy to let him go; how about we just forget about this whole silly misunderstanding and all promise to be BFFs forever?

Bob wouldn't believe it, but he'd go for it, because he's a lazy sod.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Not the Hand of the King at the moment. Nor riding under the King's own banner.

The problem is the very public way that treason would display. Robert can ignore it (and shovel his own grave because Kings ignoring such don't survive long), but neither Ned nor Robb (whoever is in charge of the North) nor the Tullys nor Renly or Stannis would let it pass.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

We know that the Riverlanders did not attack the Westerlands. Ned himself confirms that. They were attacked in their entirely legitimate camp inside the Riverlands.

Does he? Do you have a source for Ned talking about the battle of the Golden Tooth?

Do you have a source that Ned even knows that there is a Riverland army at the Golden Tooth? When he asks Darrys where his soldiers are at Darry tells him that his men are camped outside the gates of Riverrun.

Darry, Piper and Vance go to Ned asking for permission to retaliate over the bannerless riders and Ned doesn't give it, instead telling them it is the Kings business.

Nope. Never left the Riverlands.

It is the battle of the Golden Tooth. It happened in the Westerlands.

Tywin can't blame it on the Tullys. He himself attacked the Hand of the King, flying the King's banner. That is high treason.

When did Tywin attack Ned?

[Alester Florent]

When did Tywin attack Ned?

This is the hypothetical scenario that Tywin's plan worked as intended and Ned led the party that was in fact led by Beric Dondarrion.

[Boarsbane]

Not the Hand of the King at the moment. Nor riding under the King's own banner.

The problem is the very public way that treason would display. Robert can ignore it (and shovel his own grave because Kings ignoring such don't survive long), but neither Ned nor Robb (whoever is in charge of the North) nor the Tullys nor Renly or Stannis would let it pass.

Good point, he's always had such a good relationship with his brothers and will definitely do something because they want him to.

It's amazing how people will completely disregard Robert's past behavior and act as if there is no way he won't make war with Tywin. The reality is Robert is lazy, he doesn't want conflict with his most powerful bannerman while he is fearing a possible Targaryen invasion. Regardless how people feel about the plausibility of it, Robert is clearly worried and it would probably factor in.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

This is the hypothetical scenario that Tywin's plan worked as intended and Ned led the party that was in fact led by Beric Dondarrion.

Ah.

As long as Ned is alive and well I dont think Robert is going to have a huge problem, certainly not enough to start a civil war over. Jaime attacked Ned in Kings Landing, putting him a coma and Robert did nothing but tell Ned to make peace with the Lannisters.

Robert frowned. "I take it you know what Catelyn has done?"

"I do." Ned took a small swallow of wine. "My lady wife is blameless, Your Grace. All she did she did at my command."

"I am not pleased, Ned," Robert grumbled.

"Abductions on the kingsroad and drunken slaughter in my streets," the king said. "I will not have it, Ned."

"Catelyn had good reason for taking the Imp - "

"I said, I will not have it! To hell with her reasons. You will command her to release the dwarf at once, and you will make your peace with Jaime."

"Three of my men were butchered before my eyes, because Jaime Lannister wished to chasten me. Am I to forget that?"

He is clearly not taking sides in the matter, he just wants Cat to release his brother-in-law and for everyone to stop this petty squabbling.

Ned being the Hand and Roberts close friend does not change anything in this situation

[John Doe]

Nope. Never left the Riverlands.

Do you have a quote that supports this opinion?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Do you have a quote that supports this opinion?

The discussion between Ned and Edmure's messengers, where Edmure informs him of his plans and Ned explicitly is relieved that Edmure does not give Tywin that excuse.

As well as the fact that Jaime attacked, not the Riverlanders. Nevermind the idiocy that would have been with the given numbers.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The discussion between Ned and Edmure's messengers, where Edmure informs him of his plans and Ned explicitly is relieved that Edmure does not give Tywin that excuse.

As well as the fact that Jaime attacked, not the Riverlanders. Nevermind the idiocy that would have been with the given numbers.

What given numbers? No numbers are mentioned in that chapter. Ned is directly told by Darry that his strength is camped outside the walls of Riverrun.

"The lords of the Trident keep the king's peace," Ser Raymun Darry said. "The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer's Ford."

"Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin," Ser Marq declared, "but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king's leave before we strike."

Thank the gods for old Lord Hoster, then. Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he'd sent Ser Gregor to burn and pillage - and Ned did not doubt that he had - he'd taken care to see that he rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of a common brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king's peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Ned is perfectly aware that Tywin is trying to goad them into attacking first. That is his plan, Ned can see that Tywin is trying to manipulate the Riverlords into making war. And they do, a foreign army invading another realm is an act of war.

Ned actually thinks Hoster is in charge, not Edmure, as Hoster is keeping his illness a secret. Is it any surprise that Edmure is rash in his decision making and did not properly grasp the entire situation like the more experienced Ned and Hoster would?

Edmure foolishly sent an army into Westerlands territory, the Lannisters struck back and then chased them back to Riverrun.

It is referred to as the battle of the Golden Tooth, the Golden Tooth is in the Westerlands. The Riverlands has no natural boundaries, if there was a mountain pass in their lands they would have a natural boundary.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, the Golden Tooth is in the Westerlands. And right outside the Golden Tooth is the border to the Riverlands, as shown by Jaime descending from the Golden Tooth on Vance and Piper.

Do you assume they tried to siege 15,000 men inside a fortress with 6,000?

[John Doe]

, as shown by Jaime descending from the Golden Tooth on Vance and Piper

who were camping in the Westerlands, right below the Golden Tooth.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Yes, the Golden Tooth is in the Westerlands. And right outside the Golden Tooth is the border to the Riverlands, as shown by Jaime descending from the Golden Tooth on Vance and Piper.

Do you assume they tried to siege 15,000 men inside a fortress with 6,000?

Where do you get 6,000 from?

Where did I say that Jaime was inside the Golden Tooth fortress?

The Riverland army would have needed to stop a (presumably) larger Lannister host. To do that they would need to use natural boundaries to give themselves an advantage. We have been told many times that the Riverlands is lacking such boundaries so a smaller army would need to use the Westerlands natural boundaries to stop the larger army.

That is why it is referred to as the battle of the Golden Tooth. Had it happened in the Riverlands it would been known as the battle of the (insert nearest Riverland location).

[Bright Blue Eyes]

who were camping in the Westerlands, right below the Golden Tooth.

That is inside the Riverlands. The Golden Tooth guards the border.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

That is inside the Riverlands. The Golden Tooth guards the border.

No it doesn't.

Here is a map from the world book.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/0d/bb/4e/0dbb4e85aea3d5386b0e51727cf80c2c.jpg

The Golden Tooth is actually quite some distance from the border.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No it doesn't.

Here is a map from the world book.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/0d/bb/4e/0dbb4e85aea3d5386b0e51727cf80c2c.jpg

The Golden Tooth is actually quite some distance from the border.

The same maps showing Maidenpool once in the Riverlands and once 200 miles further east in the Crownlands, as well as Saltpans switching from the Riverlands to the Vale, with a similar distance to it's original place?

Pages 150 and 162.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The same maps showing Maidenpool once in the Riverlands and once 200 miles further east in the Crownlands, as well as Saltpans switching from the Riverlands to the Vale, with a similar distance to it's original place?

Pages 150 and 162.

The location of Golden Tooth has been pretty consistent with all the maps.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/File:The_Westerlands.png

http://cdn.obsidianportal.com/map_images/437940/Map_Westeros_Political.jpg

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/e/e7/Map_of_westeros.jpg

Now you will notice that in everyone of those official maps the Red Fork does not go past the Golden Tooth yet the Red Fork flows into the Westerlands.

All the available evidence makes it look like that the Golden Tooth is in the Westerlands.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The Golden Tooth, yes, but not the field of battle.

Just look at the logic, if you don't trust the text. Vance and Piper attack the Golden Tooth on their own, with Edmure still at Riverrun, with about 6,000 men and Edmure having just another 14,000, while they know the Lannisters amass an army at the Golden Tooth, possibly knowing that it numbers 35,000 all told. How in the world would that be a rational decision?