What was the final straw that made Roose Bolton jump ship?

[Crazy Joe Wilson]

Double-post, sorry.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

So The Blackfish and Robb are completely lying about being ready for Tywin? Wouldn't Edmure be aware of when Robb took the Crag and said something when confronted? The fact he said nothing lets me to believe that Robb was not injured at the Crag when Tywin headed West. Marching to the Crag and preparing to storm it could take a unknown amount of time . They took it by storm in one night but that does not tell us how long it took for them to get there or how long they took to prepare to storm it.

• It took them a night to storm it. That is a fact.
• They had already left from Ashemark to the Crag before the Battle of the Fords. That is a fact
• A raven and/or messenger was sent to them before the battle of the Fords and either they did not get it in time or chose to ignore it and took the Crag anyway. That is also a fact.

Now given the distances from Riverrun to the Crag and the timing of events it appears Robb, who was targeting the ruinous Crag, would have taken the Crag no matter what Edmure did.

You can call it lying if you want, but they need Edmure to do something for them to save their war effort. Edmure is Robbs last chance to appease the Freys and get back around 4,000 troops. They are using strategy to get Edmure, and Walder, to do what they want just like they used various strategies in the battlefield to get victory.

The Westerlands had already lost 25+ thousand men, which is about half of their total mustering. All the Westerlands really had left was Tywin's army of 20,000. This is against Robb's force of 6-8,000 cavalry, the Riverlords army Edmure brought together that was about 11-12,000 at the Battle of the Fords, and Roose's Northmen host of 12,000. That's nearly 30,000 versus 20,000.

Sorry but where are you getting 25k losses from?

Jaime had an army of 15k and we know that 4k, at the very least, survived with Prester and went to the Golden Tooth. It could be that other portions of that army survived.

We dont know how many were with Stafford and how many were killed though we know some did escape to Lannisport with Daven.

25k is an exaggerated number.

Robb has 6k in the Westerlands, 1k of which is the Freys. He had no chance of beating Tywins 20k in the West especially as he 'ordered' Edmure to stay at home.

You are also forgetting that in feudal politics, when your homeland is under attack, that is a statement that you are bad ruler who cannot defend those who you pledged to defend (hence why Robb lost so much respect when Winterfell was captured).

Which equally applies to Edmure and why he had to react when Tywin was in his lands.

He cant be expected to hide away in Riverrun.

The point of Robb's excursion into the Westerlands was not to necessarily capture Casterly Rock and Lannisport (although with the 18,000 Ironborn who by all logics should have allied, if it were not for Balon being deranged and stuck in the past), but to damage Tywin's reputation and his bannermen enough that Tywin would be forced to head West, which he was and which he did.

No, the point was to meet up with the Ironborn and attempt to take the Rock and Lannisport.

"By now Robb is at the Golden Tooth," Theon said. "Once it falls, he'll be through the hills in a day. Lord Tywin's host is at Harrenhal, cut off from the west. The Kingslayer is a captive at Riverrun. Only Ser Stafford Lannister and the raw green levies he's been gathering remain to oppose Robb in the west. Ser Stafford will put himself between Robb's army and Lannisport, which means the city will be undefended when we descend on it by sea. If the gods are with us, even Casterly Rock itself may fall before the Lannisters so much as realize that we are upon them."

Lord Balon grunted. "Casterly Rock has never fallen."

Robbs plan had changed after he left Riverrun yet didn't bother to alert Edmure or Roose of this change.

From the sounds of it the original plan was to keep cut off Twyin from the West and Edmure was keeping up the original plan as he was not told otherwise.

He may have also thought he was doing his King a favour and Robb would have been grossly outnumbered in the West.

Had Edmure not gotten in the way, Tywin would outnumber Robb, but then he would have 23-25,000 Northmen/Rivermen behind him, and could have very well been surrounded and annihilated.

They'd be behind him in the West, were Robb could have just as easily been trapped.

Why is it only possible that Tywin can get trapped in his own lands but the possibility of Tywin assembling a similar trap is never mentioned. Tywin is a sneaky bastard, if nothing else, he would have known the map and were to trap the foreign army in his lands.

Roose purposely pushed his soldiers into an all-night march and then failed to secure the surprise, unnecessarily tiring his troops before a battle against a numerically-superior opponent. Roose's orders were to stop Tywin from advancing up the Trident and to Moat Cailin, not to surprise attack Tywin like he did. If you want more proof, Atawell write a much more convincing argument on how Roose threw the battle here; https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/chapter-by-chapter-analysis-tyrion-viii/

There is no proof there, just theory.

If Rooses orders were that simple why was Robb not utterly furious with him for losing so many men? Look at his reaction to the battle of Duskendale which had far, far less losses

"Robett Glover will answer for that when I see him, I promise you."-Robb Stark

Yet he's perfectly fine with Roose, happy to allow him to reamin in charge of the majority of his army.

[Blackfish Tully]

• It took them a night to storm it. That is a fact.
• They had already left from Ashemark to the Crag before the Battle of the Fords. That is a fact
• A raven and/or messenger was sent to them before the battle of the Fords and either they did not get it in time or chose to ignore it and took the Crag anyway. That is also a fact.

Now given the distances from Riverrun to the Crag and the timing of events it appears Robb, who was targeting the ruinous Crag, would have taken the Crag no matter what Edmure did.

You can call it lying if you want, but they need Edmure to do something for them to save their war effort. Edmure is Robbs last chance to appease the Freys and get back around 4,000 troops. They are using strategy to get Edmure, and Walder, to do what they want just like they used various strategies in the battlefield to get victory.

If Robb was wounded and completely unable to fight Tywin during the Battle of the Fords wouldn't Edmure know that? The day your King takes a castle and gets wounded seems like a pretty important day for one of his commanders to remember so I would assume that Edmure would know exactly what day Robb took the Crag so why did we not mention that when the Balckfish and Robb confronted him? Maybe because he knew that the Crag was a week after the Fords?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

If Robb was wounded and completely unable to fight Tywin during the Battle of the Fords wouldn't Edmure know that? The day your King takes a castle and gets wounded seems like a pretty important day for one of his commanders to remember so I would assume that Edmure would know exactly what day Robb took the Crag so why did we not mention that when the Balckfish and Robb confronted him? Maybe because he knew that the Crag was a week after the Fords?

Cat didnt find out that Robb was injured until Robb returned. He didnt let Edmure know that he was injured just like he didn't alert him to his plans. Robb not passing on pertinent information to Edmure is a pretty consistent part of the series.

And I'm sorry for stating the obvious but they dont have telephones in Westeros. When Riverrun received a message that Robb had already left Ashemark and was moving onto the Crag then that would have meant he had left some time ago, he may have even arrived at the Crag by the time Riverrun knew he left Ashemark.

Timewise there would have been little difference. Cat sent a message to Robb at that point and either it didn't get to him in time or he decided to take the Crag anyway.

[Blackfish Tully]

Cat didnt find out that Robb was injured until Robb returned. He didnt let Edmure know that he was injured just like he didn't alert him to his plans. Robb not passing on pertinent information to Edmure is a pretty consistent part of the series.

And I'm sorry for stating the obvious but they dont have telephones in Westeros. When Riverrun received a message that Robb had already left Ashemark and was moving onto the Crag then that would have meant he had left some time ago, he may have even arrived at the Crag by the time Riverrun knew he left Ashemark.

Timewise there would have been little difference. Cat sent a message to Robb at that point and either it didn't get to him in time or he decided to take the Crag anyway.

yes but we do not know how long it took him to get to the Crag or how long it took to prepare to storm the Castle . You don't just arrive at the Castle one day and storm it the next . There are preparations that need to taken care of . They are in enemy territory so every movement and every situations has to be carefully planned so they don't fall into the same trap Jaimie fell into at Riverrun. The whole time Robb is in the Westerlands he knows that Tywin could be heading West at any time so he would be extra careful with every movement.

It's beyond belief that Robb and the Blackfish would be in the West tearing it apart and not having a plan for when Tywin tries to destroy them. That would be insane , they knew Tywin was coming West eventually so they clearly had a plan to handle him.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

yes but we do not know how long it took him to get to the Crag or how long it took to prepare to storm the Castle .

We know it took a night to take. It says so in the books I even provided the quote. We know that the Crag is half ruins and poorly protected, again, it says so in the books.

We know that before the battle of the Fords had started Robb had already left Ashemark and had told Riverrun he was heading for the Crag. Its says so in the books and I provided the quote from ACOK's chapter 45.

We actually know Robb had taken Ashemark quite some time before that as we learn from Bran in chapter 35 of ACOK:

"He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand.

Rickon tugged at the maesters robe. Is Robb coming home?

Not just yet, I fear. There are battles yet to fight."

Now considering the distance between Ashemark and Winterfell this suggests that when Cat asked

"Do we know where he is?" "At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling,"

this might have not been the most recent of information but just the last known whereabouts of the King.

Now we know that news of the victory of the Crag(and remember news takes time to arrive in Westeros) reaches Riverrun at the same time as the victroy over Tywin which suggests that they would have happened at around the same time.

"The walls of the keep were thick, yet even so, they could hear the muffled sounds of revelry from the yard outside. Ser Desmond had brought twenty casks up from the cellars, and the smallfolk were celebrating Edmure's imminent return and Robb's conquest of the Crag by hoisting horns of nut-brown ale."

After this is said Cat finds out the news of Winterfell and her children, while she has no news on the nearer Kings Landing and who would win.

"Is it news of King's Landing?" asked Brienne.

"Would that it was. The bird came from Castle Cerwyn, from Ser Rodrik, my castellan." Dark wings, dark words. "He has gathered what power he could and is marching on Winterfell, to take the castle back." How unimportant all that sounded now. "But he said . . . he wrote . . . he told me, he . . . "

"My lady, what is it? Is it some news of your sons?"

Such a simple question that was; would that the answer could be as simple. When Catelyn tried to speak, the words caught in her throat. "I have no sons but Robb."

Now we have a timeline of what Robb was up to as well when he received the same news:

"I took her castle and she took my heart.,' Robb smiled. "The Crag was weakly garrisoned, so we took it by storm one night. Black Walder and the Smalljon led scaling parties over the walls, while I broke the main gate with a ram. I took an arrow in the arm just before Ser Rolph yielded us the castle. It seemed nothing at first, but it festered. Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of . . . of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon." He seemed to have trouble saying his brothers' names. "That night, she . . . she comforted me, Mother."

Robb would have been at the Crag no matter what Edmure did.

[Blackfish Tully]

We know it took a night to take. It says so in the books I even provided the quote. We know that the Crag is half ruins and poorly protected, again, it says so in the books.

We know that before the battle of the Fords had started Robb had already left Ashemark and had told Riverrun he was heading for the Crag. Its says so in the books and I provided the quote from ACOK's chapter 45.

We actually know Robb had taken Ashemark quite some time before that as we learn from Bran in chapter 35 of ACOK:

Now considering the distance between Ashemark and Winterfell this suggests that when Cat asked

this might have not been the most recent of information but just the last known whereabouts of the King.

Now we know that news of the victory of the Crag(and remember news takes time to arrive in Westeros) reaches Riverrun at the same time as the victroy over Tywin which suggests that they would have happened at around the same time.

After this is said Cat finds out the news of Winterfell and her children, while she has no news on the nearer Kings Landing and who would win.

Now we have a timeline of what Robb was up to as well when he received the same news:

Robb would have been at the Crag no matter what Edmure did.

You can provide all the quotes you want but none of them prove that the battle of the Crag was before or at the same time as the Battle of the Fords. We do not know how long it took for Robb to get to the Crag , that's a fact . we have no idea how long it took Robb to prepare to storm the Crag , that's a fact. If Tywin would have kept coming West Robb would not have stormed the Crag , he would have went to face Tywin.

I don't believe Blackfish would dishonorably lie to Edmure about being ready for Tywin and if the Crag was before or during the Fords and Robb was wounded and in no shape to face Tywin then Edmure would have definitely said something and not volunteer to lead the van in the next battle.

[Blackfish Tully]

We know it took a night to take. It says so in the books I even provided the quote. We know that the Crag is half ruins and poorly protected, again, it says so in the books.

Storming a castle in enemy territory is one of the most risky and dangerous things an army can do . If you get hit from behind when you are in full storming mode you can be completely crushed by your enemy (ask Stannis at the Blackwater) Robb would have carefully scouted out all the surrounding area and carefully placed his troops in the best positions in case Tywin or somebody else suddenly appeared . He would not have just showed up at the Crag and started attacking . That's would be stupid . Just getting to the Crag would be time consuming because you have to be super careful in enemy territory. Every mile has to be carefully scouted out and planned in case there is an ambush ahead. You can't just assume you are safe or you will fall into the same trap Jaimie did at Riverrun.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Storming a castle in enemy territory is one of the most risky and dangerous things an army can do . If you get hit from behind when you are in full storming mode you can be completely crushed by your enemy (ask Stannis at the Blackwater) Robb would have carefully scouted out all the surrounding area and carefully placed his troops in the best positions in case Tywin or somebody else suddenly appeared . He would not have just showed up at the Crag and started attacking . That's would be stupid . Just getting to the Crag would be time consuming because you have to be super careful in enemy territory. Every mile has to be carefully scouted out and planned in case there is an ambush ahead. You can't just assume you are safe or you will fall into the same trap Jaimie did at Riverrun.

lol

You have no evidence to back up your claims. None, zero quotes just your fanboy worship of the Blackfish and the belief that he cant manipulate his nephew into doing something that can potentially save both the Tullys and Starks.

News of Robbs victory of the Crag arrives at the same time as news of Edmures victory. I provided the quote, the book doesn't lie

"The walls of the keep were thick, yet even so, they could hear the muffled sounds of revelry from the yard outside. Ser Desmond had brought twenty casks up from the cellars, and the smallfolk were celebrating Edmure's imminent return and Robb's conquest of the Crag by hoisting horns of nut-brown ale."

Happened at the same time, actually more likely the Crag happened first.

[Blackfish Tully]

lol

You have no evidence to back up your claims. None, zero quotes just your fanboy worship of the Blackfish and the belief that he cant manipulate his nephew into doing something that can potentially save both the Tullys and Starks.

.

neither one of us has any evidence to back up our claims , just educated guesses but at least I admit it and I don't resort to insults like a little baby when i get frustrated.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

neither one of us has any evidence to back up our claims , just educated guesses but at least I admit it and I don't resort to insults like a little baby when i get frustrated.

I provided evidence I have yet to see you do the same. I'm sorry about the fanboy remark but it is frustrating discussing someone who frequently uses the argument that the Blackfish cant lie as reason why the text is wrong. The fact that you are named after him and mainly pop up in discussions about him makes it look like that you are strongly biased in his favour. But my apologies as it was a cheap, if somewhat easy, remark.

1. Robb has already sent ravens to Winterfell, and possibly Riverrun, in chapter 35 of aCoK's letting them know that he has taken Ashemark.

Chapter 45 mentions that the last they have heard from Robb is that he has already left for the Crag, this is before the battle of the Fords has taken place. The books suggest that they are taking place at similar times

The battle of the Fords takes place over 3 days, Robb tells us that he took the ruinous Crag within a night. The books suggest that these events are taking place at similar times.

Riverrun is celebrating both Edmures and Robbs victories. Given the distance between the Crag and the Fords it is only logical to surmise that the Crag victory happened first.

During the celebrations Cat gets news of Winterfell/ When Robb gets the same news from the North he is had already been injured and bedridden in the storming of the Crag, yet further evidence that both events took place during a similar period of time.

Furthermore we learn from Jaime that from Riverrun to Goldn Tooth is a two day ride, that means from Riverrun to the Crag would at the very least be 3 days. Considering Robb had left from the Ashemark to the Crag(Robbs own message) then it is more than logical to say that he would have taken the Crag and been injured by the time Tywin reached him.

As for your refusal to think that the Blackfish could lie ~~~ He's not Jesus. He is more than capable of lying/manipulating the situation if it means a huge advantage or even just survival for his side. The Blackfish is a man in his 50 or 60's, this would not be the fist time he has lied in his life and nowhere in any of the books is it mentioned that he has never told a lie in his life. That is something you seem to have made up yourself.

[Blackfish Tully]

I provided evidence I have yet to see you do the same. I'm sorry about the fanboy remark but it is frustrating discussing someone who frequently uses the argument that the Blackfish cant lie as reason why the text is wrong. The fact that you are named after him and mainly pop up in discussions about him makes it look like that you are strongly biased in his favour. But my apologies as it was a cheap, if somewhat easy, remark.

.

I could have easily have referenced the fact that you always attack Robb and Blackfish in all your posts but I refused because i like to address somebody's posts not attack the person making the post. I'm biased in nobody's favor I just base my arguments on what I read and what I've read of Blackfish makes me believe that not having a plan to deal with Tywin coming west and then lying about that is just not in his character.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I could have easily have referenced the fact that you always attack Robb and Blackfish in all your posts but I refused because i like to address somebody's posts not attack the person making the post. I'm biased in nobody's favor I just base my arguments on what I read and what I've read of Blackfish makes me believe that not having a plan to deal with Tywin coming west and then lying about that is just not in his character.

When have I ever attacked the Blackfish? You are going to have to offer some actual evidence here.

Pointing out that Edmure was not at fault for their plan not working is not attacking them. As well as what I mentioned in the previous post the fact that the Tyrells played a huge part in the Battle of Blackwater and Robb and the Blackfish not knowing that they had changed sides was the biggest turning point.

Edmure was not at fault, them blaming him is weak but people characters in the book are capable of being wrong and events suggest they were.

[Blackfish Tully]

1. Robb has already sent ravens to Winterfell, and possibly Riverrun, in chapter 35 of aCoK's letting them know that he has taken Ashemark.

Chapter 45 mentions that the last they have heard from Robb is that he has already left for the Crag, this is before the battle of the Fords has taken place. The books suggest that they are taking place at similar times

The battle of the Fords takes place over 3 days, Robb tells us that he took the ruinous Crag within a night. The books suggest that these events are taking place at similar times.

Riverrun is celebrating both Edmures and Robbs victories. Given the distance between the Crag and the Fords it is only logical to surmise that the Crag victory happened first.

During the celebrations Cat gets news of Winterfell/ When Robb gets the same news from the North he is had already been injured and bedridden in the storming of the Crag, yet further evidence that both events took place during a similar period of time.

This is not evidence of anything . Nothing in anything you've written tells us when the Battle of the Crag took place in relation the Battle of the Fords. You are just throwing up random statements that you are acting like prove your point but all they prove is that the two Battles were close together but not which one happened first. Just like you said earlier there are no phones in Westeroes . News does not travel in a predicable time and there is no way to know when something happens in relation to when somebody finds out the news. Depending on where you are located in Westeroes you may find out when something happens days,weeks or even months later then somebody else in another part of Westeroes. When Riverrun celebrates the Battles means nothing in references to which Battle happened first.

[Blackfish Tully]

[Blackfish Tully]

[thelittledragonthatcould]

This is not evidence of anything . Nothing in anything you've written tells us when the Battle of the Crag took place in relation the Battle of the Fords. You are just throwing up random statements that you are acting like prove your point but all they prove is that the two Battles were close together but not which one happened first. Just like you said earlier there are no phones in Westeroes . News does not travel in a predicable time and there is no way to know when something happens in relation to when somebody finds out the news. Depending on where you are located in Westeroes you may find out when something happens days,weeks or even months later then somebody else in another part of Westeroes. When Riverrun celebrates the Battles means nothing in references to which Battle happened first.

They happened around the same time, I have said that repeatedly. And the Crag was won at the same time as the battle of the Fords was won.

I dont think it matters if the Crag happened a day or so after the Fords as it takes more than 2 days to get from the Fords and the Stone mill to the Crag but it certainly finished before the battle of the Fords finished.

The point about there being no telephones in Westeros highlights the vast probability that victory at the Crag took place before victory at the Fords as both are being celebrated at the same time yet the victory at the Crag would have taken longer to reach Riverrun.

[Wavey Sauce]

When have I ever attacked the Blackfish? You are going to have to offer some actual evidence here.

Pointing out that Edmure was not at fault for their plan not working is not attacking them. As well as what I mentioned in the previous post the fact that the Tyrells played a huge part in the Battle of Blackwater and Robb and the Blackfish not knowing that they had changed sides was the biggest turning point.

Edmure was not at fault, them blaming him is weak but people characters in the book are capable of being wrong and events suggest they were.

Edmure did screw up bad but it cant all be blamed on him

[100 Whispering Woods]

If Robb wins the war though what benefit does Roose get out of it? He doesnt advance in any way or anywhere. He would just be looked at as doing his duty.

I am not disagreeing with you either just something that is hard not to consider

Again even at the start of the war he ignored some of Robbs orders and when he went to battles he sent thousands to their deaths while his own army he would keep back in reserve and would never take any casualties

Roose actually did his duty and was fairly committed to the cause until the battle of the blackwater. Roose had a good plan at the battle of the green fork and attempted to take Tywin unawares by forcing a march through the night. Yes he was defeated but he retreated in good order and reformed his army. He did not lose an insane amount of men. But after the blackwater he saw they had no chance and started weighing his options....

[Victor227]

What's strange is that Roose was ordered to attack Tywin at all. It was a pointless gamble, and Robb should have rightly figured he would have needed those men later. I suppose Roose had to attack to sell the illusion of the northmen coming to battle rather than letting Tywin get a good look at their composition and send word to Jaime about Robb's movement west.