What would have happened if Stannis had stayed at King's Landing instead of leaving for Dragonstone during A Game of Thrones ?

[frenin]

18 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

The Mad King's own son was trying to replace him. If the Battle of the Trident went the other way Aerys is still done, only this time it's his own son kicking him off the throne. He's not the GOAT, he's a cowardly version of Maegor the Cruel with terrible hygiene.  

Would he ? There's no way to tell, maybe he gets to kill Rhaegar, maybe he gets him to stop maybe... Fact is, half the Realm still rose for him with less ground than twincest.

 

 

20 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

He's going to consider it either way. Robert's a hotheaded idiot - he's going to act without thinking and make the situation worse. It's what he does. He'd probably try and kill Jaime himself and end up gutted. 

He specifically told Ned he didn't believe his regime airtight. All Robert needs to do is get them murdered and problem solved.

Ned also believed that Robert would try and get them (all the main Lannisters) killed no matter how far they hid. I very much doubt he was going to sail himself, instead of placing high bounties for their heads.

 

 

21 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

Stannis in this situation is trusting in his brother the King and sticking around in KL rather than running off to Dragonstone and isolating himself. Stannis at war, and believing himself to be the Prince That Was Promised, is willing to do whatever he has to do and then some. Stannis in this situation is choosing to uphold and trust the system, ie bring evidence to his brother. 

You're simply creating two different personas to suit your view, Stannis has never believed himself the Prince that was promised and we have no hint that Stannis's mindset was changed after believing his Azor Ahai. Stannis chose to follow Robert in rebellion, not because he believed Robert's case was just or that Aerys had violated a millenia old tradition, simply because Robert was his brother and he has always aimed to please him.

Stannis also doesn't mention any prophecy as a reason to kill them, he specifically states that Cersei  acts and her children are abominations and thus are simply going to get killed, nothing else nothing more.

 

 

28 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

Which instantly makes any Tyrell support for Robert against the Lannisters look rather self serving

Sure, so? That's how alliiances work.

 

28 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

and gives Tywin ammo for his own propaganda.

And who is going to be his intended target? The original rebel block led by who despise him? The original loyalist block who still remember the butchering of the Targlings? The Martells? Balon Greyjoy who fears Ned and Robert? The Freys?

Tywin is way too isolated and far too despised for him to sway any powerful actor unless said actors have something meaningful to gain, also every powerful actor stands to gain more if Tywin loses.

 

 

33 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

He'll back Robert as long as Robert's alive but if Robert does something dumb like getting himself killed trying to kill Jaime Lannister himself then Renly will do what he did in the books --- flee the city and make his own claim. 

Renly tried to uphold Ned's regency in the books, it's only after Ned closed that door and chose to doom himself that Renly went his own way. But ofc if the worst were to happen, it'd happen.

 

 

35 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

While Robert likes to laugh at Jaime's expense he does still feel that Jaime is a good and capable knight and defends Jaime to Ned when naming Jaime Warden of the East. So the relationship between Robert and the Lannisters doesn't appear to the Realm as frayed as it does to readers (if it even is that far gone since Ned's the viewpoint for Robert in the book and Ned's POV is pretty biased against the Lannisters).

The relationship between Robert and the Lannisters is not frayed, he still considers his family and tolerates them. The relationship would be destroyed if Robert were to know and believe the twincest however.

 

 

38 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

It looks like a hard turn to ditch his wife for a younger queen and clear a three million gold dragon debt - something which will make other debt holders more than a bit wary. One of those debt holders is the Iron Bank. 

1) It would be a hard turn if it wasn't been discovered his wife has been banging her brother and passing her bastards as royals.

2) Treason has always been the most reasonable ground for a debt cancellation, historically speaking medieval Kings got away with cancelling debts over much smaller shit, like being a Jew for example, and they always found new lenders. The Iron Bank is not going to bat an eye about what Robert does in his own kingdom, to his own vassals, so long its money keeps coming. Why would they?

 

44 minutes ago, SilverGhost said:

Also none of this takes into account Varys or Littlefinger - who are running rings around everyone else in KL when it comes to playing the game. Stannis might end up just like Jon Arryn - or Ned Stark. He's only a threat in the books because he isolates Dragonstone and then takes a good portion of Renly's forces after Renly's death. That only happens because he's not in KL when things go down. If he's still there he's probably dead. 

Or not dead at all like Renly. Littlefinger wanted chaos, he'd still get it, Varys's own plan was to use the twincest to create chaos for Young Griff, with Robert privy to the info and with time to clean house, he'd simply start over again. 

But the simple truth is that we have no way to know how they'd react and how would people react to them, neither Stannis nor Ned trust them, the only reason Ned trusted Petyr at the end of the day is because Cat told him to. So it's beyond speculative my point.

Still barring Tywin inflicting Robert and Ned and Stannis some heavy military losses able to get their coalition to think twice about whether they are in the winning side or not. There's no much he can do but to wait for his death in a likely siege or accept that his children are idiots and try to move on.