Speculation: Swords, Shards

[Hippocras]

On 5/21/2023 at 4:44 PM, Hippocras said:

That is definitely the fun question in all of this!

My guess: Widow's Wail and Blackfyre seem to be the two most likely to cross paths in the near future, in ways that might generate a reforging. Widow's Wail is either already stolen from KL or will be, and from there will head South, while Blackfyre is either on its way to Aegon or already there. Storm's End seems to be the destination for both, and in a context of war. Cersei would gladly melt Blackfyre if she defeats Aegon, and Aegon would gladly melt Widow's Wail if he defeats the Lannister forces. Meanwhile if Dany eventually fights Aegon she would have reason to melt both. The melting of swords is very much linked to conquest.

There is no sign of Dark Sister so far at all. At least with Blackfyre we have a vague hint it is soon to appear. Not so with Dark Sister. Also, I do not see a strong narrative argument for melting down Oathkeeper at this point. It is much stronger as an artifact that lasts.

I have been reviewing my ideas on this, because they are not at all settled. I very much wonder about Dark Sister.

The problem as I see it, is that when I read the histories it is clear that Dark Sister, while it was not the official symbol of Targaryen rule, WAS the sword more closely connected to key moments and individuals.  Blackfyre was used relatively little. So there must be SOME way for that sword to re-appear. 

I have never been particularly attached to the idea that Dark Sister is hiding as Longclaw. I fail to see how Dark Sister would have ended up being the family sword of the Mormonts for generations. Instead I consider it more likely that it stayed with Bloodraven. He was the last known person to wield it, and in all likelihood it remains there in the cave with him. In which case it will be Bran who brings this sword back into the story.

And if he does, that blows open my ideas on this compelling Lightbringer theory and which swords might be "shattered" in order to produce it.

 

  

On 5/21/2023 at 7:10 PM, Curled Finger said:

Interesting.  We know DS went north of the Wall, but that isn't a lot to go on with.  I've spent some time considering where and with whom the swords may go until they get where they are needed.  Who do you see taking WW south?  And why?  

This bit with Cersei melting swords down is interesting.  Can't say I've ever seen that idea before.  But, in this theorizing it could make some real sense.  Hadn't thought about Aegon collecting swords at all.  Another fresh idea!  

If a nice sized Blackfyre was indeed melted down with the materials from Widows Wail I wonder if there is enough VS to forge a great sword?  What would this new sword be named?  

If we were to speculate that it might be Dark Sister that "shatters", what are the scenarios that might produce this outcome? Dark Sister is probably currently in the VERY far North. It will come South when Bran does, and it will help him to get there. But after that, who would see a purpose in destroying it and why? The logic of conquest does not seem to apply, since Dark Sister was never the royal symbol.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Test scenario 1:

Dark Sister is re-worked because there is not enough Valyrian steel in the North and they need to arm more people with smaller amounts to fight the WW.

Test scenario 2:

Dark Sister is re-worked because it is not big enough for the person who will be using it. After all it was always the smaller of the two famous Targ swords. So maybe in will be merged with something rather than broken down smaller.

Yeah.....

Scenarios involving Blackfyre and Widow's Wail are just more convincing.

 

BTW for anyone just joining this thread now, the speculative theory being discussed was originally found on WatchersOnTheWall. But that site has retired. Here is an archived version:

Look Into the Flames: Swords and Shards | Watchers on the Wall | A Game of Thrones/House of the Dragon Community for Breaking News, Casting, and Commentary (archive.org)

Edited November 26, 2023 by Hippocras

[Aebram]

On 5/21/2023 at 1:50 AM, Hippocras said:

And the latest one on swords:

Look Into the Flames: Swords and Shards | Watchers on the Wall | A Game of Thrones/House of the Dragon Community for Breaking News, Casting, and Commentary

 

That link doesn't work (unless the site is down?).

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, Aebram said:

That link doesn't work (unless the site is down?).

Yes, in my post just above I gave the archived version. Watchersonthewall has retired.

[Hippocras]

Reposting the text here since it is no longer available on the original site:

 

Quote

In A Song of Ice and Fire, the fabled Valyrian steel swords are impossible to overlook. George R.R. Martin devotes pages to building up their backstory and all the key characters’ arcs are influenced in some way by them to the extent that they could be considered characters themselves. Yet they are mysterious.  Their value is inseparable from the fact that no one knows how to make them anymore and so new ones cannot be made. They are priceless family heirlooms, their stories embedded in the stories of  the preeminent families of Westeros. Furthermore, it seems that not only is Valyrian steel very rare and valuable, but it is necessary in the coming fight against the threat from the North; while ordinary  steel shatters when it is used against White Walkers, Valyrian steel does not. This is therefore a crucial tension in the series.

Valyrian steel weapons are needed for fighting together on the same side in the same place, but they are instead spread across the continent and  belong to people who are busy fighting each other. Maybe there is no need for further theories  about them because already we can see how GRRM has woven the swords into the essential core of  the series. This is after all a story that follows the Seven Kingdoms’ ruling families as they war amongst themselves and fail (so far) to come together to face more important existential threats.  The family swords are perfect symbols of this.

But I, for one, like to speculate that there might be more to it. The myth of Azor Ahai and the forging of Lightbringer demands a closer look. Lightbringer is a step further than even  priceless Valyrian steel, something truly wondrous. It is a detail that simply would not have been included in the series at all if not to provoke speculation. We, the readers, are expected to tie ourselves into knots just as the Priests of R’hllor and various Targaryens have done trying to figure out who the Prince that was Promised or Azor Ahai reborn might be, and what or where Lightbringer might be. The possibilities fans have proposed are endless, but all stem from one of these basic premises:

1. Lightbringer is not a sword at all i.e.:

• A leader or hero
• Dragons
• A unifying idea

2. Lightbringer is an existing ancient weapon that just needs heat and light added to make  it truly special i.e. :

• Dawn
• Blackfyre
• Catspaw dagger

3. Lightbringer is a sword that is forged in the series i.e.:

• Needle
• Something completely new
• Ice and its derivatives

From these premises a great number of theories are possible. I will devote the remainder of this article to just the last on the list for two reasons: First, because to me it ties together the best story threads in the most compelling way. And second, because it suggests a yet-to-be revealed reference to J.R.R. Tolkien’s shards of Narsil (from The Lord of the Rings) that does not seem accidental. The idea is that Lightbringer is a sword that does not yet exist but is being forged via the events of the story, eventually becoming a symbol of unity just as Andúril was. While it does not yet exist, it is being made from all or part of one that did: Ice.

 

Ice is, after all, the sword featured in the very first chapter. It caught our imaginations early and never let go. It was wielded by Ned Stark (played by the same actor who played Boromir in The Lord of the Rings!) and the red comet appeared in the sky just after it was used to kill him. It has been split into two swords (shattered!!) by this point in the story, however these swords seem to reject their new form; they will not hold the red dye and in spite of their ownership, neither one is or has ever been truly wielded by a Lannister or nominal Baratheon. But most importantly, Ice is the only candidate for Lightbringer that has a connection to nearly all of the characters contending for the role of Azor Ahai reborn. The only notable exception is of course Daenerys.

Whenever Lightbringer finally emerges from myth to influence the events of the main series there is no doubt that it is or will be something magical. GRRM never spells out exactly how magic works because he wants it to remain mysterious and unpredictable, but he does hint that there are elements that must come together for it to work. Regarding the swords, we know that the ancient Valyrians used blood magic and so it seems likely that the process of making Valyrian steel also involved blood magic. Furthermore, if Valyrian steel weapons have embedded blood magic then maybe it is not just because they are priceless that they are passed down in families, but because they are bound by blood. In other words, I suspect that it matters that Ned was killed using his own sword. I suspect it is relevant that Ilyn Payne, who killed him, may soon be involved in a fight against Brienne and Oathkeeper, which is, after all, one of the “shards” of Ice.

The original Lightbringer was the sword of legendary hero Azor Ahai. According to the story he  labored for 30 days and 30 nights on his first attempt but when he tempered the sword with water it shattered. Ice itself may not have shattered when Ned executed the Night’s Watch deserter and then cleaned the sword in the pools of Winterfell, but his family certainly began to break apart from that moment and these ancestral swords are symbols of their families. Arya and Sansa’s relationship with each other and with Ned grew bitter after Ned was forced to kill Sansa’s direwolf Lady using Ice.  Even assuming the theory is true then, it is impossible to be confident of where exactly we are in the forging and tempering process. Still, there is no doubt that the splitting of Ice resembles a shattering  both physically and symbolically.

Ice has been split only once, which means it may see a second “shattering”. After all, in the myth,  Lightbringer was created on the third attempt after both the first and second attempts shattered. As the split of Ice was symbolic of the destruction of the Stark family, let us consider that a second  shattering could be symbolic of the devastation of the Baratheon-Lannister royal family who now claim these swords. The story implications are certainly interesting. Indeed, the trajectory the Lannisters are on at the end of A Dance with Dragons suggests fragmentation and impending doom for several of them. Tyrion killed Tywin and is on the other side of the world. Jaime was ignoring Cersei’s letters before being captured in the Riverlands. Myrcella is on a dangerous trip back to King’s Landing from Dorne, past lands occupied by Aegon and accompanied by some who do not wish her well. Cersei is a prisoner of the Faith, while Tommen is loyal to her enemies. All it would take is for any one of them to be killed with a “shard” of Ice and the pattern would be established.

Maybe then we should consider that Joffrey’s use of Widow’s Wail to demolish “the Lives of Four Kings” might actually be foreshadowing of the eventual use of this sword for regicide.

 

There is a final complicating factor to consider of course, and that is the question of how the Targaryens figure into this. After all, this discussion of the “shards” of Ice does not yet touch the Targaryens or fully account for why Ice would be more special in the end than the historic swords that for hundreds of years symbolized the royal dynasty of Westeros. Dark Sister and Blackfyre have yet to make confirmed appearances in the main series, yet their importance in Westerosi history is clear. I have suggested that we may see a second splitting of Ice, but maybe the division of Ice into Widow’s Wail and Oathkeeper was already the second shattering, and the first was the splitting of Blackfyre and Dark Sister, along with all of the internal strife during the Targaryen age that was associated with those two swords. Many fans believe that Blackfyre in on its way to Aegon. Some speculate that Dark Sister may be hiding in plain sight as Longclaw, or that it is entombed with Lyanna Stark in Winterfell’s crypts – either way destined for the hands of Jon Snow. None of this can be confirmed yet. We can, however, note that the histories contain many interesting details such as Bloodraven as the last known wielder of Dark Sister, his rival Bittersteel as the last known wielder of Blackfyre, and the fact that Daemon Targaryen used Dark Sister to kill Aemond Targaryen in the Dance. The association of these two swords with a long, drawn out “shattering” of the Targaryen family is well established.

I would venture to suggest, therefore, that while GRRM’s version of Andúril may turn out to be Ice put back together again just as the shards of Narsil were, it seems more likely that this is all headed in a different direction. This is a song of Ice and Fire, after all, not just Ice. The process of bringing these contrasting elements together has been long and difficult, full of tragedy, and that makes it all  the more rewarding when it finally happens. The unifying symbolic weight of a reforged sword is more earned if it truly does represent the coming together of the Kingdoms: A sword for a new era, forged from one shard of Ice, and a spark of fire.

Whatever your take on it, the myth of Lightbringer is compelling stuff. To me the idea that a new forging story is woven into the series and that what will be Lightbringer is deeply connected as an artifact to many, or all of the principal characters, is exciting and rich ground on which to base predictions of where the series is headed. I also like the idea that even if it is a new sword, it is one that was made from old ones, complementing the way the series weaves history and present and conceiving of time as a repeating but mutable pattern.