Did Arthur Dayne bring Ashara to Dragonstone to have Rhaegar's baby secretly?

[Jeff Claburn]

Did Arthur Dayne bring Ashara from Starfall to Dragonstone to act as a secret surrogate mother for Elia Martell?

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Rhaegar and Elia had a complicated relationship.

—George Martin

Most likely, yes. As explained below, until Rhaegar met Lyanna, the one and only seemingly suitable (and indeed perfect) “surrogate mother” for a third head of the dragon, whom Rhaegar and his best friend Arthur believed was needed for upcoming Battle for the Dawn, was Ashara Dayne.

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According to Barristan Selmy (A Dance with Dragons chapter 67), Ashara Dayne had only just come to court not long before the false spring of 281 AC, during which the legendary Tournament at Harrenhal was held.

We have one actual scene between husband and wife Rhaegar and Elia, which is witnessed by Daenerys in the House of the Undying. It’s a loving scene between two happy parents where they discuss whether Rhaegar will write a song for the new baby. But Rhaegar’s comments show us that he was convinced that:

1. His son Aegon is the Prince Who Was Promised, and his is the Song of Ice and Fire, and
2. There must be one more afterborn sibling of Aegon’s—”the dragon has three heads”—in order to stop the Long Night and the Others when they come.

But we also know from Barristan Selmy that the doctors determined that Elia definitely could not survive a third pregnancy after Aegon was born. That meant there needed to be another mother for the third head of the dragon.

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Now we all know that Lyanna met Rhaegar and Rhaegar met Lyanna at the Tournament of Harrenhal, and it’s clear that eventually they had Jon Snow together.

But we have it on very good authority that another important romance started about a week earlier, right at the beginning of the Tournament: Ned Stark—or at least someone very close to Ned, such as his Brother Brandon or Howland Reed—fell in love with Ashara Dayne, or slept with her, at the Tournament at Harrenhal:

• Catelyn Stark heard a rumor from their servants that Ned had a relationship with Ashara Dayne at the Tournament and she was the mother of Jon Snow.
• Ned Dayne, apparently named for Ned Stark, tells Arya that her father fell in love with aunt Ashara at the tournament and she died loving him.
• Meera and Jojen reed describe in detail to Bran how their father Howland Reed watched Ashara dance at the tournament with Ned Stark, after speaking to Brandon Stark. They also note that she danced before Ned with Oberyn Martell, Jon Connington, and a member of the kingsguard (Barristan Selmy).
• Barristan Selmy reveals to Dany that he fell for Ashara Dayne himself but that he believes that “Stark” dishonored her at the tournament and got her pregnant.

But while it’s very possible for Ned to have fallen for the beautiful Ashara—his being single at the time—no one really thinks Ned would have “dishonored” her at the tournament by sleeping with his new lady love. Because it’s widely reported that Ashara Dayne did get pregnant, this has lead to alternative theories that it was Brandon Stark who dishonored her or that Howland Reed and Ashara feel in love and they slept together at the tournament instead of Ned and Ashara.

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But let’s take a step back and look at exactly what the situation was:

• Rhaegar needed a baby mother from a noble lineage but neither he nor Elia wanted it to be someone that Rhaegar actually loved.
• Arthur Dayne was Rhaegar’s closest friend, and he would have been the one whom Rhaegar tasked with finding a “surrogate mother” quietly for Elia if possible.
• Ashara Dayne is Arthur Dayne’s sister; she isn’t bethrothed to anyone yet; and Arthur knows he can trust her.
• Ashara is beautiful and has violet eyes like a Targaryen, so she can produce a baby who looks like a Targaryen—indeed possibly a baby able to pass as Rhaegar and Elia’s daughter conceived, carried, and born off on Dragonstone.
• Ashara is from a magical lineage, possibly ancient dragon riders themselves from the dawn of days, making her the next best thing to an actual Targaryen mother, when there is no Targaryen option in this case.
• The Daynes themselves are keepers of the Sword Dawn and seem to believe, similar to Rhaegar, that they have a crucial role to play in a second, upcoming Battle for the Dawn.
• Ashara has spent her life in Starfall far off to the South: No one at Court knows Ashara. She doesn’t have any friends at Court to gossip about her.

Thus the one and only perfect surrogate mother in all Seven Kingdoms for Rhaegar to have his third child was…Ashara Dayne!!!

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Rhaegar and Ashara probably started trying to conceive a baby, quietly and secretly during the months they were together on Dragonstone before the Tournament at Harrenhal.

Dragonstone was Rhaegar’s seat and home with Elia and their two young children. If Ashara got pregnant and she and Elia cloistered together on Dragonstone (as Ashara was expected to do as her lady in waiting) without others coming in and out, then Rhaegar and Elia could actually present Ashara’s child by Rhaegar and claim it as Elia and Rhaegar’s!

Moreover, look at the ones who were dancing with Ashara at the Tournament at Harrenhal, except for Ned:

• One was Jon Connington, known to be one of Rhaegar’s very closest friends other than Arthur Dayne—and someone who at least believed later that Rhaegar’s own son Aegon was sent to him to raise and protect.
• One was Oberyn Martel, Elia’s brother and closest friend, confidant, and protector in the world.
• The last was Barristan Selmy, who clearly wasn’t in the know about anything, but who was a trusted kingsguard charged with protecting Rhaegar, Elia, and possibly instructed to watch and protect Ashara as well by one of them.

And that was it. Ashara seems to have been kept well protected and guarded, and the only one outside a narrow circle who spent quality time with her was our Ned Stark.

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Now let’s suppose that the sparks did fly when she and Ned danced! Ashara wasn’t in love with Rhaegar. They weren’t dating. Rhaegar and Elia would have been very nice to her essentially as their surrogate mother. But there was no romance. Whereas idealistic Ned would have been smitten with her beauty, wanted to dance with her for her. Wanted to hear all about her fellings and interests and family and life because he was interested…in her.

So what happened is that Ashara feel in love with Ned and politely decided to end her arrangement to be surrogate mother for Rhaegar and Elia to instead begin dating Eddard Stark. And because all the evidence from Barristan Selmy points to Rhaegar being a gentleman whom he deeply respected, Rhaegar would have accepted that and moved on and started to look for someone else at the tournament to take Ashara’s place.

Only neither Rhaegar nor Ned imagined that when Rhaegar started looking on his own for a new surrogate mother the at first unnamed woman he would find, and then actually start to fall for, would be Ned’s younger sister…Lyanna Stark. That caught everyone by surprise, but it wasn’t the only surprise.

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Ashara wasn’t aware that she was pregnant yet when she broke off her arrangement with Rhaegar and Elia so that she could date Ned! But at the end of her cycle she would have missed her period and realized that she was. This was right at about the same time that Lyanna ran away from her family and Robert (whom she couldn’t stand) to Rhaegar for protection from being forced to marry Robert.

Ashara was the mystery pregnant woman whom most readers of the series don’t even remember. But when Davos is travelling to White Harbor through the Sistertons, he hears the story about how Ned Stark had travelled through Sisterton to the North shortly after the beginning of Robert’s Rebellion with a pregnant woman. Who was she? She was Ashara Dayne pregnant with Rhaegar’s child.

That’s why the Dayne’s named Ned Dayne after Eddard and think he is such as great guy. Because Ned smuggled Ashara to safety at the outset of the war, and somewhere in White Harbor or the North Ashara was able to have her daughter. The baby didn’t die. Ashara didn’t lead from a tower in sadness over the baby and Ned abandoning her. Those are cover stories. Ashara had her baby, who is probably now Val “the Wildling Princess” but who might alternatively be Daenerys herself if she was smuggled over the sea and replaced a still born daughter of widow Queen Rhaella.

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Robert’s Rebellion didn’t just end with Ned Stark saving a secret boy child of Rhaegar’s. It also started with his saving a secret girl child of Rhaegar’s…one who is either Dany (if the “Lemongate” theorists are right) or who is Val if my theory is right that Jon has secretly, unknowingly fallen in love with his half-siter Val, both Jon and Val having been hidden in the North with fake identities to protect them from being killed. And Val with her golden-blonde hair and striking beauty, would have to have been hidden even further away from the capital and from other noble families than Jon, which would be a reason to hide her with Wyman Manderly in White Harbor who has a secret fortress, or the far, far of the North near the Wall, or across the Wall in one of the Southernmost wildling villages.

But we especially see Ned’s passion in fighting Robert and being completely unwilling to accept the assassination of Dany if Ned had actually saved Dany, as the daughter of Ned’s own love, 15 years before, or if he had saved a very similar blonde baby girl from the same family who was the daughter of Ned’s first love.

[KingAerys_II]

No, maybe Ned Dayne is Brandon and Ashara son

[KingAerys_II]

I hope he is going to release that book very soon

[Jeff Claburn]

4 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

No, maybe Ned Dayne is Brandon and Ashara son

Edric Dayne is twelve when he talks to Arya, so he is several years too young to be Ashara's son from the time of Robert's Rebellion. But clearly the Dayne's hold Ned Stark in very high regard, for some reason. Either Ned did not in fact kill Arthur Dayne at the Tower of Joy (as I have also argued elsewhere), or Ned did something great for Ashara, or both.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Jeff Claburn

[Aebram]

Interesting theory. Off the top of my head, I see several questionable points.

1. I find it hard to believe that Arthur Dayne would agree to, and even help with, his own sister getting pregnant outside of wedlock, even for his prince.

2. If Ashara wanted her daughter to be hidden, it seems unlikely that she would, or even could, arrange to have her raised by wildlings.

3. What's that about Manderly having a secret fortress? Are you referring to the Wolf's Den?

[Jeff Claburn]

1 hour ago, Aebram said:

Interesting theory. Off the top of my head, I see several questionable points.

1. I find it hard to believe that Arthur Dayne would agree to, and even help with, his own sister getting pregnant outside of wedlock, even for his prince.

2. If Ashara wanted her daughter to be hidden, it seems unlikely that she would, or even could, arrange to have her raised by wildlings.

3. What's that about Manderly having a secret fortress? Are you referring to the Wolf's Den?

Yes, I am referring to the Wolf's Den which most people seem to think is an abandoned, crumbling ruin but in fact in good shape by Manderly where he can hide guests, agents, ambassadors, and visitors. For example, I believe that Mance Rayder was probably visiting Wyman at White Harbor when he learned that Robert was coming to Winterfell. After all, Ned didn't even learn he was coming until he was a few days away. It seems impossible for Mance to have learned Robert was coming north of the wall, as he told Jon, and then had time to travel to the wall, climb the wall, travel to a village and buy a horse, and then ride through most of the North in time to fall in with Robert's group before they reached Winterfell. Probably, Mance had secret dealings with Wyman and perhaps also Ned himself, since Ned tells Catelyn right in her first chapter that they have nothing to fear from Mance Rayder and since Wyman is secretly building a fleet of ships for Ned. There was probably discussion and negotiation all along of the possibility of bringing some of the wildlings south of the wall to settle in the North before the coming anticipated worst Winter in a thousand years, in exchange for their pledging loyalty if Mance could arrange it.

There is a lot weird about Mance's story of meeting Dalla and Val. He claims to have just met them on the way back from Winterfell after Robert's visit. But if so, almost all the trip was through the North not through wildling territory. However, clearly Dalla and Val have been raised or at least lived in recent years with the wildlings. It seems most likely to me that the "wise woman" with medical knowledge who saved Mance's life was in fact Ashara Dayne, and that her daughter was Val living with her, and that Mance continued to go back and visit them periodically and met Dalla there eventually in the same village.

Now I am also partial to the view that Mance Rayder is in fact Arthur Dayne, although that is a much larger discussion and series of theories. It's not necessary for this theory. But in fact my belief is that Ned did not kill Arthur Dayne at the Tower of Joy, but instead he went north to take care of his sister Ashara and took her north of the wall to protect her and the baby Val. Then the real Mance Rayder was taken to the village they were hiding in and died (or nearly died). At that point Ser Arthur Dayne assumed the identity of the just deceased ranger or agreed with the man to take his identity so that the real Mance could escape to a quiet life and not be hunted down as Arthur Dayne was playing the part of him in the North thereafter, with the goal all along of unifying as many wildlings as he could and bringing them South of the Wall to save them from the Army of the Dead and the Long Night.

[SaffronLady]

21 minutes ago, Jeff Claburn said:

Arthur Dayne was playing the part of him in the North thereafter, with the goal all along of unifying as many wildlings as he could and bringing them South of the Wall to save them from the Army of the Dead and the Long Night.

Not to mention the extra difficulties a Dornish upbringing would cause this far up north (yes, I know Starfall is among the mountains, but Arthur couldn't have stayed up there all the time, right? He had go down into the hot lowlands from time to time), this act seems quite selfless for a highborn man trying to live/living incognito among smallfolk-barbarians of a vastly different culture.

Perhaps that's a requirement for becoming the Sword of the Morning though. Become a knight that could fight the Night.