Myrcella I...Queen for a Day???

[Hippocras]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a wrong characterization at the moment. She still has a lot to lose. (Access to) her two children. While Tommen and Myrcella yet live, she won't turn into a loose cannon. That she restrains herself we could already see in the Epilogue.

Access to Myrcella will be lost when Myrcella does not make it to KL. Access to Tommen is temporarily restricted by the Faith, which is why she will plot to destroy them. And if it means reaching Tommen she definitely will go loose cannon, because getting to him and then keeping him beside her is the only thing she cares about ATM.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some part of the Tyrell armies will eventually leave for the Stormlands. But it is ludicrous to assume all of the men will go as the Golden Company are only 10,000 men united (and Aegon has right now barely more than half of that) and Mace Tyrell would like to maintain order in the city and sure his position at court would not be challenged in his absence.

Some of the Reach forces already left to go to Dragonstone, and the quick assault cost many many lives. The Redwyne fleet (we learn in WoW Arianne 1) passed the Stepstones and is headed to defend Oldtown but it is not at all clear they will arrive in time. Any of those who helped with the assault on Dragonstone and did not stay there are with that fleet, not back in KL.

Another group of Reach forces will leave for Storm’s End after Margaery’s trial. But I agree some remain for now. At Storm’s End (we learn in Arianne 2) Aegon does not plan to sit tight for a siege. So the Reach forces there will immediately face the Golden Company and its elephants. Possibly the Reach has better numbers there, but Aegon and the Golden Company get to choose their ground and the elephants will be a factor as well. There will be a big battle and a lot of people will die on both sides, but I predict Aegon will win that confrontation, and will therefore capture or kill Mace Tyrell and several other key leaders from the Reach.

Meanwhile Euron will take Oldtown. Willas can’t get there in time to do anything about it, because he did not have boats to transport his army. He asked for boats to retake the Shields, but Cersei would not allow the Redwyne fleet to leave until Dragonstone was taken if you recall. Until Euron showed up at Oldtown, the focus of the Reach leaders was on the Shields, so they would never have started marching by land to Oldtown. By the time they hear Euron is at Oldtown it will be too late to get there. 

Once Oldtown falls, both the Mander and the Honeywine will be fully open to Ironborn raiders. Highgarden is on the Mander, and Brightwater Keep (Garlan’s new seat) is on the Honeywine. Euron will attack up and down both rivers with little to stop him. This will cause Willas and Garlan’s armies to suffer as various lords recall their soldiers to defend their own homes. So Willas will call for help from KL. Mace, being captured or dead, will not be around to demand Reach forces stay in KL to protect Margaery.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is also equally clear that every unaffiliated people in the city will fall over themselves to attach themselves to the Tyrells. They have the power now, while Cersei is the whore queen who was hounded through the streets. No self-respecting person would like to be seen with her now.

Some people are not self-respecting. Many people in KL, at this point, have ALSO been hounded and shamed by the zealots. If she is going to be called a whore anyway, then she will make herself queen of the whores and lead their underground rebellion.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei has no clue about the hidden tunnels as she only searched the Tower of the Hand which is now gone.

Doubt that. She has Qyburn, and she even has the help of Varys for now, who would rather see her in power than the Tyrells because she makes it easier for Aegon to win hearts and minds. So Varys will make sure both she and Qyburn know KL’s underground secrets, including any wildfire to the extent that it serves Aegon’s cause.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever wildfire caches were found were actually transported to the guildhall and thereafter to the ships for Tyrion's river trap. They are gone now. Whatever wildfire remains is still hidden and not at prominent places in the city as folks already found hidden wildfire both beneath the Dragonpit and the Great Sept.

Whatever had not been found will be found and transported to where Cersei wants it by the temporary alliance of Cersei, the anti-Faith underground and whores of KL, and Qyburn who is helped, whether he knows it or not, by Varys. The pyromancers also like Cersei, and may even help her themselves.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ser Robert Strong is certainly a factor to consider, but he can't murder openly or even clandestinely and the Tyrell men then just accept Cersei as the new ruler if Mace, Margaery, and Randyll all died violent deaths. That can't work in a society of actual people.

Your assumption over and over is that the means to power for Cersei is to convince Tyrells to follow her. That is not it at all. The means to power for Cersei is access to and control of her son, combined with neutralization of the Faith Millitant. She will kidnap Tommen if that is what she needs to do. She has no concern for his happiness, only his claim to power. As long as she has him and can block Tyrell and Faith access to him with Ser Strong, convincing anyone of anything is irrelevant. No doubt she will use his blind willingness to sign any document to get herself into place to stage her little coup.

After that, I suspect we will see something akin to the Secret Siege. In 135 Peake controlled most of KL, but Viserys and Aegon had the Holdfast, and they had Sandoq the Shadow.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The sparrows actually enjoy a sound support basis among the common people and also among some of the nobility (Cersei's own cousin among them). This is how and why they could turn their leader into the new High Septon.

Yes, but many people’s opinions tend to change when austerity is imposed on them and everything that gave them joy is taken away, while a large percentage of them lose their livelihoods. We already know what an enormous industry whoring is in KL. And that is not even the only entertainment the zealots have been shutting down or the only practitioners put out of work. The level of fed-up-ness goes up by the hour.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you reread the books then the Ironborn threat is for Willas and Garlan to take care of. They have known about the fall of the Shield Islands for months, yet Mace and Randyll and Mathis didn't move a finger to deal with that. Mace continued the siege of Storm's End, and Randyll remained at Maidenpool (until Margaery was arrested).

I don’t need to re-read. I know that Mace thinks Willas and Garlan can deal with the Ironborn on their own but they are mistaken. Euron is not a mere raider such as the Reach is accustomed to, but a psychopath with access to a glass candle (Urrathon Night-Walker), warlock magic (Pree and co.), and soon, the entire Citadel. 

Willas asked for ships to retake the Shields but Cersei refused to send help until Dragonstone fell, which is the entire reason Loras and co. took Dragonstone fast and at such a high cost rather than be held up in a siege for months.

It is only when Oldtown falls that the Reach forces will see what a big threat Euron is, and by then Mace and many of their leaders will be captured or dead from the fighting in the Stormlands.

You keep saying siege at Storm’s End, but there will be no siege. Aegon plans to meet them in the terrain of his choosing, with elephants, it clearly says in WoW Arianne 2. 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is not the slightest indication that Mace and Randyll will suddenly decide to send their men (lacking ships) down south to deal with Ironborn they can't reach and risk losing their hold in the capital.

The headwaters of both the Mander and the Honeywine are much closer than the Shields or Oldtown are. Much of the Reach needs boat access but not all. Mace will be captured or dead in the Stormlands and Randyll Tarly does not have the same attachment to Margaery and power in KL as Mace does. With Mace off the board Randyll’s moves will be quite different.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is not the slightest indication that Margaery would die 'because of the Sand Snakes' nor do the Sand Snakes have a motive to try to mess with or kill her. She is not their enemy. What the Sand Snakes would want to do is to ruin and destroy Tywin's daughter, especially once they figured out that the bitch queen turned the killer of their father into an undead monstrosity. Which is something Lady Nym should realize in about five minutes after she arrives at court.

I am very uncertain about Margaery’s fate, but I do know the feud between Dorne and the Reach is bitter, old, and endless. We already saw them fighting each other all over the city when the Dornish were visiting for the wedding. So I don’t know what moves the Sand Snakes will make, I just know that the story requires an end to the union of Tommen and Margaery, and that the Sand Snakes will play some part in that. I also think that Dorne, for the moment, is not interested in simply murdering Tommen, though we know that is not beyond them eventually.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

More importantly, though, the matter of the regency will be decided right now, when Kevan's corpse is discovered. Just as Mace Tyrell, the Hand, will decide who the Iron Throne is going to blame or accuse of the double murder. And their obvious scapegoat will be Cersei herself. Nobody is going to stop them from arresting her and accusing her of arranging the murders of Pycelle and Kevan, just as nobody saved Tyrion from getting arrested for Joffrey's murder.

That is not going to happen. She did not have enough freedom when Kevan was murdered to be pinned with the blame no matter how much they might want to blame her. And she has Ser Strong around to make sure noone can arrest her or force her to comply with any trial.

[Hippocras]

This thread is about how Myrcella might become queen (not if, because that makes for a pointless discussion).

I still think the most likely is that she does not make it safely to KL. But if she does somehow get to KL, she is accompanied by a small army or Dornish spearmen. They would, within hours, be squabbling with any Tyrell forces still in KL, and they would change the power dynamics somewhat. It is not a large enough force to claim the city, but it is large enough for Cersei to potentially make use of in Myrcella’s name.

[Lord Varys]

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Access to Myrcella will be lost when Myrcella does not make it to KL. Access to Tommen is temporarily restricted by the Faith, which is why she will plot to destroy them. And if it means reaching Tommen she definitely will go loose cannon, because getting to him and then keeping him beside her is the only thing she cares about ATM.

I can see Cersei trying to abduct Tommen from KL because she fears for his life, yes, but not to stay there. That is overall a ridiculous scenario as Cersei actually fears death and her enemies lurk in the walls of the castle. She could kill everyone in KL and still not feel safe in the Red Keep.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Some of the Reach forces already left to go to Dragonstone, and the quick assault cost many many lives. The Redwyne fleet (we learn in WoW Arianne 1) passed the Stepstones and is headed to defend Oldtown but it is not at all clear they will arrive in time. Any of those who helped with the assault on Dragonstone and did not stay there are with that fleet, not back in KL.

Nope, those were Redwyne men and men sent to Dragonstone earlier.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Another group of Reach forces will leave for Storm’s End after Margaery’s trial. But I agree some remain for now. At Storm’s End (we learn in Arianne 2) Aegon does not plan to sit tight for a siege. So the Reach forces there will immediately face the Golden Company and its elephants. Possibly the Reach has better numbers there, but Aegon and the Golden Company get to choose their ground and the elephants will be a factor as well. There will be a big battle and a lot of people will die on both sides, but I predict Aegon will win that confrontation, and will therefore capture or kill Mace Tyrell and several other key leaders from the Reach.

Sure enough, but doesn't give Cersei any power, it will only hasten the collapse of Cersei's government as KL will then be ripe for the taking.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Meanwhile Euron will take Oldtown. Willas can’t get there in time to do anything about it, because he did not have boats to transport his army. He asked for boats to retake the Shields, but Cersei would not allow the Redwyne fleet to leave until Dragonstone was taken if you recall. Until Euron showed up at Oldtown, the focus of the Reach leaders was on the Shields, so they would never have started marching by land to Oldtown. By the time they hear Euron is at Oldtown it will be too late to get there.

Euron has no plans to take Oldtown. He wants the Iron Throne, not waste his men to take a city on the mainland he could never hope to hold. Once he has dealt with the Redwynes he might take the Arbor, and then Oldtown might do him homage as their king to save their trade ... but he won't storm the place.

I mean, haven't you read the sample chapter? Euron awaits Paxter off the Arbor. He is not on the way to Oldtown.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Once Oldtown falls, both the Mander and the Honeywine will be fully open to Ironborn raiders. Highgarden is on the Mander, and Brightwater Keep (Garlan’s new seat) is on the Honeywine. Euron will attack up and down both rivers with little to stop him. This will cause Willas and Garlan’s armies to suffer as various lords recall their soldiers to defend their own homes. So Willas will call for help from KL. Mace, being captured or dead, will not be around to demand Reach forces stay in KL to protect Margaery.

Euron doesn't give shit about the Shields and the Mander. People perceive the fall of the islands as a threat, but the whole thing is a distraction - both for the Ironborn and the Reach.

You don't seem to understand what Euron wants.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Some people are not self-respecting. Many people in KL, at this point, have ALSO been hounded and shamed by the zealots. If she is going to be called a whore anyway, then she will make herself queen of the whores and lead their underground rebellion.

Can you give examples for that and tell us those would put such hypothetical people in relation to Cersei?

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Doubt that. She has Qyburn, and she even has the help of Varys for now, who would rather see her in power than the Tyrells because she makes it easier for Aegon to win hearts and minds. So Varys will make sure both she and Qyburn know KL’s underground secrets, including any wildfire to the extent that it serves Aegon’s cause.

Varys never said he wants Cersei in power. He said Kevan was undoing Cersei's fuckery. There is no indication that Varys deems Mace and Randyll as competent rulers. If you check the Epilogue then Randyll is pissed about Margaery's trial, suggesting they put the sparrows in their place with force. He and Mace could do that, Cersei can't.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Whatever had not been found will be found and transported to where Cersei wants it by the temporary alliance of Cersei, the anti-Faith underground and whores of KL, and Qyburn who is helped, whether he knows it or not, by Varys. The pyromancers also like Cersei, and may even help her themselves.

LOL, perhaps in your mind, but not in a consistently written book series like ASoIaF.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Your assumption over and over is that the means to power for Cersei is to convince Tyrells to follow her. That is not it at all. The means to power for Cersei is access to and control of her son, combined with neutralization of the Faith Millitant. She will kidnap Tommen if that is what she needs to do. She has no concern for his happiness, only his claim to power. As long as she has him and can block Tyrell and Faith access to him with Ser Strong, convincing anyone of anything is irrelevant. No doubt she will use his blind willingness to sign any document to get herself into place to stage her little coup.

After that, I suspect we will see something akin to the Secret Siege. In 135 Peake controlled most of KL, but Viserys and Aegon had the Holdfast, and they had Sandoq the Shadow.

Nobody gives shit about Tommen. If Cersei were to get to Tommen to stamp some documents, Mace and his men would just ignore them, like Cersei ignored Robert's last will. They have the power now, not some puppet king and his whore mother.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

Yes, but many people’s opinions tend to change when austerity is imposed on them and everything that gave them joy is taken away, while a large percentage of them lose their livelihoods. We already know what an enormous industry whoring is in KL. And that is not even the only entertainment the zealots have been shutting down or the only practitioners put out of work. The level of fed-up-ness goes up by the hour.

Give examples for this.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

I am very uncertain about Margaery’s fate, but I do know the feud between Dorne and the Reach is bitter, old, and endless. We already saw them fighting each other all over the city when the Dornish were visiting for the wedding. So I don’t know what moves the Sand Snakes will make, I just know that the story requires an end to the union of Tommen and Margaery, and that the Sand Snakes will play some part in that. I also think that Dorne, for the moment, is not interested in simply murdering Tommen, though we know that is not beyond them eventually.

That is just pulling stuff out of your ass. Yeah, there is some bad blood there, but nothing indicating that anyone wants to murder Margaery. If anything, the Tyrells might want to kill some Sand Snakes due to what Oberyn did to Willas.

On 1/14/2024 at 10:52 AM, Hippocras said:

That is not going to happen. She did not have enough freedom when Kevan was murdered to be pinned with the blame no matter how much they might want to blame her. And she has Ser Strong around to make sure noone can arrest her or force her to comply with any trial.

Nobody could stop them, if they wanted to do just that, because they are in charge. Just like Cersei was, when she arrested Tyrion.

[Hippocras]

@Lord Varys we will just have to agree to disagree if you think Cersei’s arc is about meek submission and accepting defeat. I feel like you learned nothing from how she dealt with being cornered by Ned.

You seem to want me to write GRRM’s book for him before you will believe me, but that is not what this debate is really about for me at all. I really, personally, have no stake in particular ideas of HOW Cersei will turn her situation around. I just know that she will. The how depends on how the pieces on the game board move in the first half of Winds. If you can’t accept that she will, without knowing exactly how, then I can’t help you.

As for Euron’s goals, I do know he eventually wants the Iron Throne. I also am fully aware the Shields are just a distraction and even said as much. But there is more going on with Euron’s storyline than that. He does not want to seduce Dany and live happily ever after; he wants to control her and her dragons. He is the one who opens the gate for dark magic actors such as warlocks (who want Dany’s power for themselves) in order to do so. He is after the maesters, the Citadel library, AND the Iron Throne. And if the Shields are a diversion, Oldtown is an even bigger and better one. It seems it is not just Cersei you underestimate, but also Euron.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, those were Redwyne men and men sent to Dragonstone earlier.

You seem to forget that Redwynes are Tyrell bannermen. Ergo Reach forces.

[Lord Varys]

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

@Lord Varys we will just have to agree to disagree if you think Cersei’s arc is about meek submission and accepting defeat. I feel like you learned nothing from how she dealt with being cornered by Ned.

Nobody said that - but the notion that she can regain power now that she lost it so completely and with the non-existent means is just unrealistic. Even more so in light of the Aegon and Euron plots. There is no time for this. Cersei's arc is one of longterm revenge not one where she is back in the saddle in a fortnight which she just lost a fortnight ago.

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

You seem to want me to write GRRM’s book for him before you will believe me, but that is not what this debate is really about for me at all. I really, personally, have no stake in particular ideas of HOW Cersei will turn her situation around. I just know that she will. The how depends on how the pieces on the game board move in the first half of Winds. If you can’t accept that she will, without knowing exactly how, then I can’t help you.

You are showing what I wrote about earlier. Nobody with your scenario in mind can flesh out details in a realistic manner. All people offer is 'I want to believe this will happen'. That is literally nothing. If you can't imagine how your scenario can play out how can you imagine that George (or anyone) can write this?

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

As for Euron’s goals, I do know he eventually wants the Iron Throne. I also am fully aware the Shields are just a distraction and even said as much. But there is more going on with Euron’s storyline than that. He does not want to seduce Dany and live happily ever after; he wants to control her and her dragons. He is the one who opens the gate for dark magic actors such as warlocks (who want Dany’s power for themselves) in order to do so. He is after the maesters, the Citadel library, AND the Iron Throne. And if the Shields are a diversion, Oldtown is an even bigger and better one. It seems it is not just Cersei you underestimate, but also Euron.

There is no textual evidence for this. Euron doesn't even mention Oldtown as a stepping stone or goal in his talk with Aeron, and he is rather forthcoming in those. Not to mention that we know he originally wanted to go to Meereen himself with the entire Ironborn fleet - which means he never so much as thought about Oldtown.

The Arbor is also nothing he wants - he will take it to keep his forces sweet, to kill time, to finance future campaigns and, of course, because he has to crush the only naval power in Westeros which could challenge him.

Once the Redwyne fleet is gone, the Hightowers might bend the knee, anyway. Euron will control their waters for good then, and their wealth is dependent on naval trade. To continue it they will have to accept Euron's terms. And we can imagine that he will offer them favorable terms as he has no shot at the Iron Throne if he antagonizes everybody.

If he were to attack and storm and sack Oldtown his chances to gain the allegiance and support of mainland lords and knights will be minimal to non-existent. If he shows mercy and good will, however, the pragmatic Reach lords along the coast will join him for the time being like they did with other Ironborn kings in the past.

On 1/17/2024 at 2:50 PM, Hippocras said:

You seem to forget that Redwynes are Tyrell bannermen. Ergo Reach forces.

You have to research better. Cersei had Paxter's twins as hostages which is why the Redwynes stayed out of the war until after the Blackwater. They were not part of Renly's Reach forces.

[Hippocras]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said that - but the notion that she can regain power now that she lost it so completely and with the non-existent means is just unrealistic. Even more so in light of the Aegon and Euron plots.

Well, you did say that. Power is the only thing Cersei cares about, so anything other than regaining power is, for her, meekly accepting defeat. That simply is not her path.

So your version of realism will have to make way for story needs I guess. As for Euron and Aegon's plots, I see those as the very things she uses as tools to regain power (until she is finally dead and defeated for good) so not in a time contradition at all.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are showing what I wrote about earlier. Nobody with your scenario in mind can flesh out details in a realistic manner. 

I find my scenarios at least as believable as yours, I am just tired of debating what is or is not possible with you. I don't feel like you are the final judge of what is realistic, or possible, in a fantasy book. The reason you find my scenarios not believable is because you think you know how things will go down in both the Stormlands and the Reach, so you are not factoring in outcomes there that serve Cersei's interests. I think you have a whole set of incorrect assumptions for the South that make you unwilling to consider the scenarios.

 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no textual evidence for this. Euron doesn't even mention Oldtown as a stepping stone or goal in his talk with Aeron, and he is rather forthcoming in those. Not to mention that we know he originally wanted to go to Meereen himself with the entire Ironborn fleet - which means he never so much as thought about Oldtown.

He doesn't mention any of his goals to anyone. I don't really expect him to blurt out everything, with full honesty to Aeron do you? 

What we do have is the very clear association that GRRM has drawn between Euron and Urrathon IV Goodbrother. We know that Euron captured the warlocks just outside of Qarth and has been getting them to train him in their magic. And we know that there is a behind-the-scenes character with a house in Qarth named Urrathon who has a glass candle, and that Euron was in exile for several years. He was a notorious pirate far beyond Westeros for a long time even before that, making an association with Qarth before his exile entirely possible. The theory that Euron is either Urrathon Night-Walker himself or was trained by him is therefore very convincing. I do not, frankly, se any other reason for a character in Qarth to have been named Urrathon except to build the groundwork for Euron's story.

 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Once the Redwyne fleet is gone, the Hightowers might bend the knee, anyway. Euron will control their waters for good then, and their wealth is dependent on naval trade. To continue it they will have to accept Euron's terms. And we can imagine that he will offer them favorable terms as he has no shot at the Iron Throne if he antagonizes everybody.

I think, very much like Cersei, Euron is not all that concerned with who he antagonizes. He wants people's fear, not their love, though he can be charming and generous when it serves his purposes.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If he were to attack and storm and sack Oldtown his chances to gain the allegiance and support of mainland lords and knights will be minimal to non-existent. If he shows mercy and good will, however, the pragmatic Reach lords along the coast will join him for the time being like they did with other Ironborn kings in the past.

Yes, and here is the core of it. If, by whatever means, Euron controls a large part of the the Reach in opposition to the Faith and to King Tommen, the Tyrells will find themselves fighting in defense of their bannermen, and even against some of them. The Tyrells will therefore simply not be able to maintain a hold on KL simultaneously. This is why Euron is helpful to Cersei regaining power the more damage and chaos he causes in the Reach. And this is why she will ally with him. 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You have to research better. Cersei had Paxter's twins as hostages which is why the Redwynes stayed out of the war until after the Blackwater. They were not part of Renly's Reach forces.

Huh? What does them not fighting for Renly have to do with where we are now? They are Tyrell bannermen regardless of what went down with Renly, and since Marge married Tom they are clearly on the same side. The twins were declared innocent by the Faith, and Cersei is clearly not holding them hostage while a hostage herself.

Edited January 19 by Hippocras