ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

[Filter]

Your reaction is pretty nervous, Thio. Yes, I did want to lynch you and no, I am not following Piper because he is not my leader - as simple as that. I didn't kill you because I am innocent. After my lynch your play will come out, that was the conclusion of my previous post. I'm wondering why you decided to vote for me instead for Piper, though. If he was a leader and I just a pawn, following him, what's the deal? And why do you want me to switch votes to Halo? Are you afraid? ;p Was Piper voting for you to draw our attention from Daedalus?

And Piper is your pal, right? Very fishy.

Yeah, Filter, exactly. The more the merrier.

Care to share your suspect list now, then, including the connections you see that brought you to those conclusions.

[a_homeless_harpy]

Just one more question: if Thio is so suspicious of Shadowbaby, why is he guarding him? Well, it might be the beginning of the end.

[a_homeless_harpy]

Care to share your suspect list now, then, including the connections you see that brought you to those conclusions.

Care to read my previous posts, currently I have nothing to add.

[Shadowbaby]

3) Shabba is the SK.

You're good at finding codes. Go through my early posts and see if you find any. I guarantee you that were I a killer of any sort, I'd have prepared to fake-claim for any role that I could possibly think of.

No counterclaim from me, btw.

[Filter]

Just one more question: if Thio is so suspicious of Shadowbaby, why is he guarding him? Well, it might be the beginning of the end.

Since Thio just said he won't be around, and I think this is pretty obvious, I'll answer for him.

If Shabba is either the SK or a lone FM with dead partners, then she can't kill if he guards her.

[a_homeless_harpy]

Since Thio just said he won't be around, and I think this is pretty obvious, I'll answer for him.

If Shabba is either the SK or a lone FM with dead partners, then she can't kill if he guards her.

Thanks for your answer. Very good. My next question: why isn't he guarding me? After all, I am his number one suspect, not Shabba.

[Shadowbaby]

Thanks for your answer. Very good. My next question: why isn't he guarding me? After all, I am his number one suspect, not Shabba.

Because he wants you dead. There is no point to guarding a corpse.

[Filter]

Thanks for your answer. Very good. My next question: why isn't he guarding me? After all, I am his number one suspect, not Shabba.

You're asking questions that look to have already been answered in his posts.

Anyways, I don't think there's much to be gleaned from another reread of Shadowbaby, seeing as she's avoided saying anything of substance. I'll just go with guarding her again tonight, unless we find somebody more suspicious.

If he has you as his top suspect and thinks you're lynchable, is there really a conflict of interest in continuing to guard Shabba?

[a_homeless_harpy]

Because he wants you dead. There is no point to guarding a corpse.

A very good reason, I just wonder why he decided that that corpse should be me.

Not so long ago (yesterday) Thio wrote: After doing a reread on my second suspicion, Shadowbaby, I'm more confident in placing a vote on Daedalus today. I'll post all of my suspicions on Shadow tomorrow. It was after the case, made by Piper and after my vote. Then something changed that order and I try to find out what.

Shadowbaby was pushed to the second place AFTER Kilgrey, encouraged by Thio, presented his very biased case of my guilt. Piper didn't even deserve one single line. Please remember, the post, accusing Thio, was his. There's something strange here, don't you think?

[House Dondarrion]

A note to our anonymous guests:

Has our little game of murder and mayhem piqued (peaked?) your interest? Want to know what is happening behind the scenes? Want to play in a future game and have the glory of being killed (or being the killer) yourself?

PM me, House Blackfyre, and we'll get you set up.

[Filter]

A very good reason, I just wonder why he decided that that corpse should be me.

Not so long ago (yesterday) Thio wrote: After doing a reread on my second suspicion, Shadowbaby, I'm more confident in placing a vote on Daedalus today. I'll post all of my suspicions on Shadow tomorrow. It was after the case, made by Piper and after my vote. Then something changed that order and I try to find out what.

Shadowbaby was pushed to the second place AFTER Kilgrey, encouraged by Thio, presented his very biased case of my guilt. Piper didn't even deserve one single line. Please remember, the post, accusing Thio, was his. There's something strange here, don't you think?

I don't really follow what you're saying here, but you do bring something interesting up. Yesterday Thio did a reread of Shabba, and was going to post all the suspicions today.

Now when I go to do a re-read, he says there's nothing to find. Which one is it?

[Whiskeyjack]

1) Daed or Gerty were the SK. Either situation would explain only 1 kill 2 nights in a row, as you gaurded Daed night 1, and Gerty was dead. Of course, this hinges on the SK coming up guilty in the weak CF.

The death scenes made it pretty clear that they were both FM aligned with St. Patrick, IMO. I'm expecting the SK to come up as guilty, but with something indicating that he works for Mother Earth, not the Lucky Charms leprechaun.

[Filter]

The death scenes made it pretty clear that they were both FM aligned with St. Patrick, IMO. I'm expecting the SK to come up as guilty, but with something indicating that he works for Mother Earth, not the Lucky Charms leprechaun.

That was my assumption until I read this

I know that was a response to whether or not we could tell which faction killed someone, not which faction the guilty belonged to, but I didn't want to miss any of the possibilities when I was listing them, no matter how likely or unlikely.

[Whiskeyjack]

That was my assumption until I read this

I know that was a response to whether or not we could tell which faction killed someone, not which faction the guilty belonged to, but I didn't want to miss any of the possibilities when I was listing them, no matter how likely or unlikely.

Yeah, there aren't any clues in the death scenes. Usually that means there aren't any clues regarding who was responsible for each night kill. But revealing the faction of the killed player (and not just whether or not he's innocent or guilty) is something that often varies from game to game.

The fact that this is a weak CF would make me think that they aren't revealing faction. But the fact that they have gone so far as to actually reveal faction in the death scenes makes me think the opposite....why even bother confusing us like that, if they aren't intending to reveal the player's faction?

[Whiskeyjack]

I didn't vote for Daedalus because I found the case of Thio, made by Piper, more valid. Daedalus was a FM, very nice, but he is by no means the last FM around. WJ, do you think that Thio is more innocent now? If so, why?

Thio has already answered this for me, with his guard reveal. I saw he was hinting at being the guard. I personally think he's telling the truth, so I think he's innocent.

First....I don't think a guard makes sense for the FM in this game....as others have pointed out, they already have an advantage over the SK without any extra powers. So why give them a guard too, for the express purpose of protecting them against the SK? Wouldn't make any sense.

So if I believe his reveal, I have to think he's innocent. And like I said above, I believe his reveal. No offense to Thio, but he seems a lot more like a somewhat obvious, overzealous new player than a clever killer to me. I guess if I'm wrong, I'll learn my lesson and be more wary of him in the future. But for now, I have him as VPI.

And please, consider that he [Daedalus] attacked me a lot in one of his last posts here (and Shadowbaby actually defended me).Sure, he didn't vote for me but he definitely promised to make a case against me in the near future. So you, WJ, consider Shadowbaby VPI and in the same time you put me in your first trier of suspects? Sorry, I don't follow your logic.

I'm discounting everything that Daedalus said or did after it became clear that he was a top suspect who was at serious risk of being voted off on day 2. He knew he was going to be lynched and he knew he was going to come up guilty. So he might have attacked you because you were his partner and he wanted to protect you by establishing some distance between the two of you. Or he might have attacked you to make us think you were his partner. It's all just WIFOM.

The attacks on Shadowbaby, however, came before Daedalus was a top lynch option. So they seem more genuine.

I would like to remind you one comment of Lany -maybe she was killed just because of it.

if Thio and Dead are connected, it is Thio who is the killer and Dead who is the symp. I quite agree.

The problem is that the mods told us the CF would reveal the symp as innocent. So Daedalus couldn't have been a symp, because he came up guilty.

[Filter]

Yeah, there aren't any clues in the death scenes. Usually that means there aren't any clues regarding who was responsible for each night kill. But revealing the faction of the killed player (and not just whether or not he's innocent or guilty) is something that often varies from game to game.

The fact that this is a weak CF would make me think that they aren't revealing faction. But the fact that they have gone so far as to actually reveal faction in the death scenes makes me think the opposite....why even bother confusing us like that, if they aren't intending to reveal the player's faction?

You know, it even says "two leprechauns in a row" right in the spoilers, so on second thought I'd say they certainly did reveal their faction, pretty straightforwardly.

Edited to Ask: Is it bad form to quote something straight from the spoilers?

[Whiskeyjack]

Looking back at Lany's suspect list -

I've reread Filter, and if you take out the Piper confusion there isn't a lot to base a case on. Several of his comments were well reasoned and I think I am going to drop him off of tier 1. He's one I am just not sure of.

That leaves me with Dead and Ser Spider. Both are in my opinion over reacting, but I do not think they are partners. I think Ser Spider was partnered with Gert and Dead as the SK. I am using most supposition on that.

I have a few too many likely innocnets I think, and still too many that I am just not sure of. I would vote for either Dead or Ser Spider today. Dead is up to 6 votes and only needs 2 more, so unless we are sure there isn't more to be gleaned from this day, I will hold off the vote.

my likely innocnets are:

WJ,

Harpy

Shadowbaby

Halo

unsure of, put not real suspicious of:

Kat

Thio

the rest, I have no clue about

Okay, so we can conclude a few things from this -

1) She was suspicious of Ser Spider. But I don't recall her ever pushing a case on him.....so he might have felt he could get away with killing her without bringing a lot of suspicion his way. He definitely had the motive to want her dead.

2) She started the day by voting for Filter. By the time of this post, her suspicion had dropped a bit. He was off of her tier 1, but she was still 'not sure about him'. Its not easy to draw any conclusions here.

3) She trusted me, Harpy, Shadowbaby, and Halo. I can speak from past experience as a killer - I very rarely kill people who trust me. I want them around in the game. This is a pretty significant point in favor of Shadow, Halo, and Harpy, IMO.

4) She wasn't real suspicious of Kat or Thio. Not quite as strong as her trust in the people listed as likely innocents, but I still don't think either of them would have any reason to want her dead.

Now, of course, there is the caveat that anybody might have wanted to kill her, simply due to the fact that nobody suspected her and she was largely considered to be PI. Can't have a whole bunch of PI running around in the game - too many of them, and the FM/SK end up on pretty short suspect lists. Still, I can't help but feel a little bit better about Shadow, Halo, and Harpy after re-reading this post. And a little bit worse about Ser Spider.

[Whiskeyjack]

Edited to Ask: Is it bad form to quote something straight from the spoilers?

I think it's fine. They just put it in spoiler text for dramatic effect.

[Whiskeyjack]

Last night, I guarded Shadowbaby. We haven't had a two-kill night either night.

Interesting. I'm not willing to lynch Shadowbaby today....want to see what happens when you guard her again tonight.

I don't think there's much of a chance of her being FM, based on Daedalus attacking her and trying to set her up as the alternative lynch option to Gert in the middle of day 1. But I could see her possibly being the SK. Her non-confrontational playstyle fits for somebody trying to be non-threatening and stay under the radar. And since she was guarded, the Lany kill is no longer a point in her favor.

Definitely curious to see how many deaths we have tonight.

[Whiskeyjack]

I think that the SK didn't join the mob on Daedalus, based on the assumption that Daedalus was a, uhm, more than average guilty looking person. I don't think the SK has an interest to appear like a threat to the shortlegged faction. If there still is a Patrick dude left that is able to kill. I think the SK could have decided to stay away from that lynch mob on Daedalus to appear a bit sympish.

Interesting point. Hadn't really thought about it much from that angle.

Now, I'm not certain that I agree with you. But let's just assume that you're right for one second. Who could be the SK?

8 votes for Daedalus (Halo, Filter, Whiskeyjack, Kat, Thiocyanide, Ser Spider, Lany, Shadowbaby)

2 votes for Thiocyanide (Piper of Chaos, a homeless harpy)

1 vote for a homeless harpy (Kilgrey)

1 vote for Night (Crusader)

2 players have not voted: Daedalus, JKMan

The people who didn't help to lynch Daedalus are Piper, Harpy, Kilgrey, Crusader, JKMan.

Doesn't make sense for Piper to be suggesting this theory, only to make himself one of five top SK suspects. So I'm tentatively crossing him off the list.

JKMan encouraged the Daedalus lynch and claims he wanted to vote for him but just forgot. Encouraging the lynch is just as good as being part of it, if you're using the reasoning that Piper is suggesting here (if the SK wanted to keep the FM alive and symp the FM, and he thought Daedalus was FM, then he'd want to do everything he could to prevent the lynch, not encourage or participate in it). So cross JKMan off the suspect list too.

We're left with Harpy, Kilgrey, Crusader.

Piper, if you're theory is correct, then you've essentially narrowed down the SK suspect list to 3 people. Do you still think your theory is correct? Personally, while I think it's an interesting thought, I have my doubts.