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AGOT Mafia XLIX - The Foundation of the Kingsguard


House Targaryen

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[quote name='House Plumm' post='1297957' date='Apr 2 2008, 14.52']Easy road is obvious. Grandy would look like a piggybacker and parroter. Better to provide his own reasoning even if its a little shoddy. Look at the last few games where we've forgiven bad cases. There is more leniency to bad cases than there is to going with the crowd.[/quote]

Yeah, that is along the same lines as the explanation I was thinking of. Maybe he wanted to encourage the mob and help vote out Thorne, but didn't want to be seen as one of the people pushing the main case. At the same time, I still think it would have been easier for him to just go with the crowd in this situation.

I think Grandison is suspicious, and I hate how he removed his vote on Thorne earlier, so I wouldn't be sad to see him lynched. But I still suspect Thorne more.
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[quote name='House Connington' post='1298067' date='Apr 2 2008, 15.04']So I just reread Florent and I don't understand the case. Is it simply that he's provided very little content?[/quote]

Smallwood posted the case [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27221&view=findpost&p=1297859"]here[/url].
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[quote name='House Merryweather' post='1298077' date='Apr 2 2008, 17.09']Smallwood posted the case [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=27221&view=findpost&p=1297859"]here[/url].[/quote]

So it's basically that Florent has added nothing to the game.

Well ok, I can get behind that.
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[quote name='House Wythers' post='1298016' date='Apr 2 2008, 16.25']So you are unconvinced that Thorne or Grandison is guilty. Especially Grandison which you think likely has just been making honest mistakes....[/quote]

Frankly, I am not *convinced* of anyone's guilt. It's possible that Grandison made honest mistakes. I am *thinking* about it in light of the more recent explanations he has offered. The link to Fell's post seems the most clear as a mistake because it makes it seem like Fell is implicating himself. Btw, is anyone else channeling Torment everytime Fell is mentioned?

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1298016' date='Apr 2 2008, 16.25']But hey I can't be defending them because I voted for him! Huh? The fact that you started an alternate lynch train doesn't mean that the intent wasn't to deflect attention from Thorne. THAT is splitting the vote so that we can't come to a consensus on a lynch and we end up going to night, to the FM's advantage.[/quote]

Actually, I have no problem considering arguments in favor of Grandison's innocence because it is a day 1 vote, and inherently weak. Of course, I can't *know* that I am starting a lynch train when I post the first vote. Yes, others mentioned the obvious suspicion of Grandison before I voted, so I certainly could be anticipating all of them piling on to my critical first vote, or at least enough of them to cancel out a lynch on my buddy Thorne. If you think Thorne is not suspicious, then why are you breaking my balls over it? Just because I am willing to admit that all of these cases are weak?

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1298016' date='Apr 2 2008, 16.25']What do you think of Florent? or Mallister?[/quote]

I don't know enough about Mallister to vote for him. He did a quick read last night and decided not to say much because no one was there to respond to him. I think he should have made some comments anyway, this is an asynchronous format, not a chat room. He was in about 3 hours today with a flurry of posts. He seemed to tear into you a bit, with not much substance. Then he voted and left for the rest of the day. Maybe he's just busy and wanted to get a bunch of posts in because he anticipated having to be gone. It would have been nice if he had said that earlier. Either way, I am willing to wait on him for now.

Florent does seem to flip-flop on Smallwood, but the first part seems kind of jokey/sarcastic. He seems to be saying that he thinks Smallwood is going out of his way to act innocent, and I can see what he is saying at that point in the game. Smallwood has kind of been all over the place, though some of it has been obviously joking. So, I am not enthusiastic about the case against Florent, yet. More posts will tell. As long as we are on the topic of Smallwood, I am a little curious as to why he talked up the case against Grandison, and then put a vote on Thorne.
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[u]Mod information:[/u]

[i]To prevent a possible modkill, the mods decided to replace the Bar Emmon player, since it's very unlikely that he is going to show up in the remaining time and we believe that it is only fair to all the other players to have an alt that is actually posting.


The new Bar Emmon should show up soon.[/i]
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[quote name='House Tollett' post='1298093' date='Apr 2 2008, 13.15']Frankly, I am not *convinced* of anyone's guilt.[/quote]
It's Day 1. No one is convinced of anybodies guilt. The best we can do is narrow down the suspect pool to people that are likelier guilty than everybody else and stack our votes together. We can make an educated (or at least somewhat educated) guess. If you keep waiting to be convinced I think you may be waiting for a very long time.
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[quote name='House Merryweather' post='1298160' date='Apr 2 2008, 17.47']Good to see everyone so eager to talk at the end of the day. :rolleyes:

Would be nice if the FM could do us a favor and kill a quiet person for once, just to make this a fun game.[/quote]
We're both here! Want us to talk some more because knowing Piper and I, I'm sure there is something we could talk about, or rather not much we wouldn't :P.

It is day 1.

15 players remain: Bar Emmon, Connington, Corbray, Erenford, Fell, Florent, Grandison, Mallister, Merryweather, Plumm, Pommingham, Smallwood, Thorne, Tollett, Wythers.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Thorne (Merryweather, Pommingham, Corbray, Smallwood)
3 votes for Grandison (Tollett, Plumm, Fell)
2 votes for Wythers (Thorne, Mallister)
1 vote for Florent (Wythers)
1 vote for Smallwood (Florent)
1 vote for Mallister (Grandison)

3 players have not voted: Bar Emmon, Connington, Erenford.

There are 2.5 hours left in the day for you to decide who, if anyone, Aegon burns to death...I mean sends home...
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I'm back and it looks like we are still hovering between Grandison and Thorne. Since it is possible we have a CF we do need to lynch. I will be here the rest of the day.

Right now I am willing to vote Thorne or Grandison.

I am not really suspicious of anyone else at the moment but am still keeping an open mind.

Who are you willing to vote? Is there any one you won't vote for?
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I'm back.

I should have a closer look at Grandison's post and the case on him in greater detail before I do anything else but right now, I'm happy with my vote as it stands.

In response to Tollett's insistence that I was giving Thorne an 'out' in my post, I can only ask him to read the entire paragraph, and not just the first sentence of it. I honestly don't see how he can come to the conclusion he has, but there you go.
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Well, my vote's on Grandison as you all can see. I am willing to switch to Thorne if push comes to shove (and it does look like push might come to shove in two hours time) but I would rather try a compromise on Florent first. I see there's two votes on Wythers but I don't want to lynch anyone active today if we can avoid it.
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[quote name='House Plumm' post='1298203' date='Apr 2 2008, 18.07']Well, my vote's on Grandison as you all can see. I am willing to switch to Thorne if push comes to shove (and it does look like push might come to shove in two hours time) but I would rather try a compromise on Florent first. I see there's two votes on Wythers but I don't want to lynch anyone active today if we can avoid it.[/quote]

Is there anything to the case on Florent besides his lack of content? If that is all, there are 3 players with fewer post, and about equal content.
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[quote name='House Fell' post='1298209' date='Apr 2 2008, 16.11']Is there anything to the case on Florent besides his lack of content? If that is all, there are 3 players with fewer post, and about equal content.[/quote]

As far as I can tell, its lack of content, being overly agreeable, and posting but saying nothing of consequence.

The other thing that has been mentioned is that he said Smallwood was suspicious, and then he said "Smallwood knows nothing". Wythers was keyed in on that. I'm not so sure. It depends on what Florent meant by "Smallwood knows nothing". If he was trying to say that Smallwood wasn't suspicious after all (the interpretation Wythers seems to believe), then it could be a contradiction. But if he was trying to say Smallwood's FMFMS theory was just a dumb joke, then I don't think its much of a contradiction.
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[quote name='House Fell' post='1298187' date='Apr 2 2008, 17.02']I'm back and it looks like we are still hovering between Grandison and Thorne. Since it is possible we have a CF we do need to lynch.[/quote]
We need to lynch anyway. We don't know the numbers of the bad guys, so any lynch can count.

I'll probably be around during the next hour, and I'm happy with my vote.
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[quote]Poster Posts
House Merryweather 34
House Wythers 34
House Targaryen 24
House Connington 21
House Fell 15
House Smallwood 15
House Mallister 13
House Tollett 10
House Thorne 9
House Florent 8
House Plumm 7
House Corbray 7
House Erenford 5
House Pommingham 5
House Grandison 5[/quote]

It's hard to believe Grandison dug such a deep hole with only 5 posts.

My preference remains on Florent. In addition to the initial flip=flopping and zero contribution, he has stayed with Smallwood with no comment or insight on any of the other cases, no real justification given for the vote on Smallwood or keeping it there. Fell made the comment that Florent has more posts and similar content to 3 others, but of those with less posts only Grandison is a serious suspect today.

I'm still waiting for Thorne to respond to the case against him. The whole case against Thorne is from the "text-book middle of the road" post and I'd like to hear him respond to that.
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[quote name='House Fell' post='1298209' date='Apr 2 2008, 14.11']Is there anything to the case on Florent besides his lack of content? If that is all, there are 3 players with fewer post, and about equal content.[/quote]
Thats pretty much it but he also has a vote on him already and every vote counts when we have to lynch under a time crunch. I want to avoid lynching active people but I don't want to lynch based on post count since even I have fewer post than our friend Florent. :rolleyes:

edit:

What will you do if Thorne doesn't come back in time to respond to your satisfaction, Wythers?
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[quote name='House Plumm' post='1298280' date='Apr 2 2008, 18.52']Thats pretty much it but he also has a vote on him already and every vote counts when we have to lynch under a time crunch. I want to avoid lynching active people but I don't want to lynch based on post count since even I have fewer post than our friend Florent. :rolleyes:[/quote]

You still have more than Bar Emmon :P

[quote]What will you do if Thorne doesn't come back in time to respond to your satisfaction, Wythers?[/quote]

I'm looking over Thorne now. If we can't agree on Florent in the next 1.5 hrs (likely) then I will likely vote for Grandison. I would vote Grandison over Thorne.
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