MAFIA 56 - Barbie World

[House Targaryen]

Mod information:


[color="#FF0000"][b]THIS IS NOT AN EVIL MOD GAME[/b][/color]

[House Redfort]

Nobody here again?
Ok, if there is no hope for discussion, we may just lynch [b]Pepper[/b], I fail to see how it could be wrong move.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Tarina Tarantino' post='1491810' date='Aug 23 2008, 04.51']ETA: Kitty voted Medusa no questions asked after Pirate's reveal. I wouldn't have done that if I was an FM with a Lover role to a RI and knew it... Modkill seems more likely then.[/quote]

I don't think the mods would modkill somebody without expressly stating that it was a modkill. Its never done that way.

I agree about the Lovers....if they were Lovers who were destined to die at the same time and knew it, Kitty wouldn't have been willing to vote Medusa. She would have defended her to the end...because she would have known a Medusa death automatically meant her death.

I'm pretty surprised by the Pirate kill. But I'm not surprised that she came up innocent, because I had already figured that she was either a symp or an innocent with a crazy role. Here are the 2 main possibilities, in my mind:

1) Pirate was a symp (and Pepper is FM). The FM knew this as soon as she declared an innocent player guilty. They also had a very strong clue based on the fact that her reveal saved Pepper. If this is true, then...

--they killed her to confuse us and cover up the fact that Pirate was a symp. This would be a move to try to save Pepper today.

--I have no explanation for why Kitty died.


2) Pirate was innocent, and she had a crazy role. By crazy, I don't mean 'mad' (I [i]really[/i] hope we don't have mad roles in this game without being warned of the possibility). I mean, she had some role where, for example, she had to get an innocent lynched. And by getting an innocent lynched, she was also able to automatically kill one FM who joined the lynch mob. This is pure speculation on my part, but I have to wonder if that is what happened. That type of move would certainly explain everything. Only problem is that its very far fetched. In this scenario.....

--the FM killed her because they felt she wasn't a symp. The fact that she declared Medusa guilty would have indicated symp. However, if Pepper is not one of them, then perhaps they couldn't figure out why a symp would reveal so early, when the move wouldn't be saving/helping them at all. So they feared she really did have a good role, and they killed her.

--Kitty died because she was on the Medusa mob, and she was taken out by Pirate's role.


There is one other final, even less likely scenario -

3) Perhaps Pirate was a symp who wanted us to waste a lynch on Medusa (innocent), waste a lynch on Pepper (innocent in this scenario), and possibly waste a lynch on her (symp). If she knew that the game was unbalanced and there were 3 FM plus a symp, then she'd also know that all those wasted lynches would get her team one mistaken lynch away from victory. Would be a very bold move on her part. Not like Kat at all, to be honest. But I figure its worth mentioning, just to be thorough. In this scenario....

--The FM killed her for the same reason I mentioned in option 2. They felt she wasn't a symp. The fact that she declared Medusa guilty would have indicated symp. However, if Pepper is not one of them, then perhaps they couldn't figure out why a symp would reveal so early, when the move wouldn't be saving one of them. So they feared she really did have a good role, and they killed her. (Note that the fact that the FM killed Pirate and the fact that Kitty also died would have greatly interfered with this plan, if it was what Pirate was really doing.)

--We'd have no idea why Kitty died.


I think scenario 1 is the most likely one, and that we should probably vote for Pepper today. Really can't imagine doing anything else. But I wanted to post the others possibilities as well, for the sake of discussion. Would like to hear what everyone else thinks about all this.

[House Mooton]

OK I am completely confused.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Toujours Couture' post='1491795' date='Aug 23 2008, 03.54']This is partly a style thing as I said, but the main reason I'm not committing on anyone is because I haven't been convinced of anyone's guilt. I'm pleased in a sense that Helly Kitty was proved evil maybe I'll trust my suspicions more from now on but I doubt I will be committing as much as you would like - that's just not my style.[/quote]

The fact that you were the first one to make a case against Kitty is definitely a point in your favor. However, the fact that you hedged your case/vote by saying you weren't entirely convinced and that you wanted to hear more from Kitty....not so good. Makes me paranoid about distancing. My inclination is to move you down my suspect list, but I don't think you get to go all the way to the bottom.

There are only 9 of us left. These people have done various things that make me feel better about them - Pink, Couture, Canary, and to a very small extent Tarina.

These people are my suspects at the moment - Pepper, Hard Rock, Aqua, Showgirl.

I'm almost certainly voting for Pepper today, but I want to re-read all 4 of those players first.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Pepper' post='1491889' date='Aug 23 2008, 09.41']OK I am completely confused.[/quote]

Any chance you might want to actually participate today? Maybe just a little?

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491885' date='Aug 23 2008, 15.35']Would be a very bold move on her part. Not like Kat at all, to be honest.[/quote]Well, we all know Kat dislikes to play as evil. She won't betray her side, of course, but I can see her choosing some wild and risky plan including her own early death in a game she doesn't actually enjoy.

What variants I see:
1. She was a symp, Pepper's or not.
2. She was an innocent symp finder and she got a positive investigation result on Medusa, but didn't want to say this directly, hoping FM will take her for their symp and won't kill her.
3. She was roleless innocent who believed her intuition about Medusa's guilt. Since Kat often suffers from not believing her own intuitions and tries to do something about this, it's psychologically possible.

But, in any of these cases, I don't see FMs killing her. Even if they thought she had a good role, there were no reasons whatever to kill perfectly lynchable player. On other side, I can easily see a good vig killing a probable symp. This would mean FM's kill failed, and it would be useful for us to know if it was so, that's the reason why I asked the vig to reveal.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Pepper' post='1491889' date='Aug 23 2008, 15.41']OK I am completely confused.[/quote]Oh well. It comes to my favorite pose in any AD&D game: staying over some chained prisoner of war, smiling, taking out a dagger and saying: "[i]Now, tell me a single reason not to cut your throat immedeately![/i]"

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='The Showgirl' post='1491898' date='Aug 23 2008, 09.56']2. She was an innocent symp finder and she got a positive investigation result on Medusa, but didn't want to say this directly, hoping FM will take her for their symp and won't kill her.[/quote]

That's an interesting thought. Its unlikely, but we can't rule it out, given that we don't have a role list.

[quote]3. She was roleless innocent who believed her intuition about Medusa's guilt. Since Kat often suffers from not believing her own intuitions and tries to do something about this, it's psychologically possible.[/quote]

Yeah, definitely don't think that is what happened.

[quote]But, in any of these cases, I don't see FMs killing her. Even if they thought she had a good role, there were no reasons whatever to kill perfectly lynchable player.[/quote]

How about as a last ditch move to try to save Pepper today? They make it look as if the FM don't think Pirate was their symp, by killing her. Since an FM team including Pepper would almost certainly know that Pirate was their symp, the death could possibly lead us to the conclusion that Pepper is not FM (would be a false conclusion in this scenario). Do you think thats at all possible/likely?

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491891' date='Aug 23 2008, 15.46']Any chance you might want to actually participate today? Maybe just a little?[/quote]
Absolutely. (Some RL drama had me sidelined a bit the last day or so.)

I have re-read Day 2 three times and the best suspect that I could find is, well... Pepper. The most direct and rational explanation for Pirates false reveal was to shift suspicion away from me and on to Medusa.

Both Medusa and Pirate being innocents makes absolutely no sense to me.

[quote name='Jazz Diva']2) Pirate was innocent, and she had a crazy role. By crazy, I don't mean 'mad' (I really hope we don't have mad roles in this game without being warned of the possibility). I mean, she had some role where, for example, she had to get an innocent lynched. And by getting an innocent lynched, she was also able to automatically kill one FM who joined the lynch mob. This is pure speculation on my part, but I have to wonder if that is what happened. That type of move would certainly explain everything. Only problem is that its very far fetched. In this scenario.....

--the FM killed her because they felt she wasn't a symp. The fact that she declared Medusa guilty would have indicated symp. However, if Pepper is not one of them, then perhaps they couldn't figure out why a symp would reveal so early, when the move wouldn't be saving/helping them at all. So they feared she really did have a good role, and they killed her.

--Kitty died because she was on the Medusa mob, and she was taken out by Pirate's role.[/quote]

Jazz's scenario #2 [s]its[/s] fits the facts. And I like this scenario a lot because it fits the one fact that I know that no one else does. It fits that I am in-fact an innocent without any roles at all. And the last thing we need is to lynch another innocent. (Especially since that innocent would be me.)

The down side to this scenario is that it does absolutely nothing to indicate who the other FM is/are. It doesn't help us identify any other suspects. So it really doesn't help.

The safest bet is Jazz's scenario 1. It creates an easy suspect. With 1 FM dead, it is really temping to just end the whole thing with an easy lynch. If Pepper is guilty, the game is likely to be over. If she is innocent, well then you are all screwed. You will be down to 7(or 6) tomorrow and not a single useable clue on who the remaining killer(s) is/are.

So I will be looking back through day 1 and 2 to figure out if there is any clue that would back up Scenario 2 and thus prove my innocence.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491885' date='Aug 23 2008, 15.35']1) Pirate was a symp (and Pepper is FM). The FM knew this as soon as she declared an innocent player guilty. They also had a very strong clue based on the fact that her reveal saved Pepper. If this is true, then...

--they killed her to confuse us and cover up the fact that Pirate was a symp. This would be a move to try to save Pepper today.

--I have no explanation for why Kitty died.[/quote]

I agree this is the best explanation for Pirate's reveal. I'm pretty sure she lied about the whole being a limited finder stuff. Kitty and Medusa having a lover role without knowing about it is my best guess as to Kitty's death, though it's not a good one (Kitty and Medusa having a lover role, knowing about it and Kitty making a stupid mistake would be another one, not a terribly good one either).

The FM might have killed Pirate to try and save Pepper, it's certainly not what I would have done, but whatever.

I also hope we have no mad roles. I really think they bring nothing to a game (nothing good, that is).

I'll give the game a re-read thinking of Pirate as symp and Kitty as FM (that last one at least seems certain) see if I come up with something else.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491904' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.04']That's an interesting thought. Its unlikely, but we can't rule it out, given that we don't have a role list.[/quote]

I don't buy it. She knew the symp would come up as innocent, so why not reveal as symp-finder? (not that I would have believed such an outlandish claim myself, but hey...). She had to know she would be lynched the day after for lying, and that would mean two lynches spent on a symp and an innocent with a silly role. I can't believe Kat would make such a stupid move.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491904' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.04']How about as a last ditch move to try to save Pepper today? They make it look as if the FM don't think Pirate was their symp, by killing her. Since an FM team including Pepper would almost certainly know that Pirate was their symp, the death could possibly lead us to the conclusion that Pepper is not FM (would be a false conclusion in this scenario). Do you think thats at all possible/likely?[/quote]
So by casting the biggest suspicion on me, they are saving my ass because it would be too obvious therefore reducing suspicion on me.

And as everyone knows, australia is populated entirely by criminals and as criminals are not used to being trusted, I can clearly not chose the wine in front of you.

[House Yronwood]

Holy crap. :o


Having gotten that out of the way, I want to apologize for my outburst. It wasn't cool, sorry about that.

Now I really need to get a handle on this game. The Kitty suicide and the Pirate death are confusing the hell out of me.

I [i]promise[/i] to post again soon. Witch's honor.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Jazz Diva' post='1491904' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.04']How about as a last ditch move to try to save Pepper today? They make it look as if the FM don't think Pirate was their symp, by killing her. Since an FM team including Pepper would almost certainly know that Pirate was their symp, the death could possibly lead us to the conclusion that Pepper is not FM (would be a false conclusion in this scenario). Do you think thats at all possible/likely?[/quote]I highly doubt this. In fact, Pepper would had better chances with Pirate alive. In this case, we would have to choose between likely killer and almost sure symp, and it would be somewhat probable we would lynch Pirate before Pepper. Now, it's virtually impossible for us to lynch anybody but Pepper.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='The Showgirl' post='1491915' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.16']Now, it's virtually impossible for us to lynch anybody but Pepper.[/quote]
:rolleyes: Tell me about it.

OK, I think we can all agree that Kat would not accuse Medusa unless she had a reason. She plays this game well enough to not make a stupid move. So there is something there we don't know yet.

We also know that this game has new roles that are unique to this game, so some kind of strange role that forces a FM to commit suicide would be quite powerful in deed. (It doesn't actually matter if the power is direct (causing the death if certain conditions are met) or indirect (by identifying some kind of lover-suicide pact-death link thing).)

Someone with that kind of power would need to be eliminated. Pirate's death is not at all a surprise.

Could Pirate's goal have been to eliminate one FM and leave the remaining innocents with a [s]6[/s] 8 to 1 advantage?

That still doesn't get us any closer to figuring out who the other FM is. Agggh :angry:

[House Pommingham]

The most obvious post by Helly pointing towards a partner is this one:

[quote name='Kelly Kitty']I don't agree with voting someone for lack of activity. Pepper has done nothing suspicious. Of course I'm a little concerned about this considering I was in the same boat as Pepper an hour ago and she might be having some sort of trouble getting to the game. If not, I still feel this would be a cop out lynch and we should get rid of one of the players who has made comments that ARE suspicious.[/quote]

which was already quoted by Jazz. Jazz points out that it may be too obvious for a CF game. Helly didn't seem too experienced, though, so I think she might make that kind of mistake.

This post by Pirate:

[quote name='Pirate']Helly Kitty hasn't posted enough to get a read, but I don't find her cutting other players with low posts some slack too unusual. Sounds like she was truly not able to get back to participate and would be understanding of others in that situation. I think anyone might feel that way.[/quote]

would support the symp theory. By re-reading Pirate, though, it does seem like she thought that Medusa would come up guilty. She never tried to distance from Pepper:

[quote name='Pirate']Really? Do you believe me? then vote Medusa cause i got a guilty. Do you think I'm a lying scallawag pirate then vote me or Pepper.[/quote]

It's not a very clever move for a symp, if you ask me. After all, she probably had one or two living partners who would have benefited from having her around even if Pepper bought it, and Pepper's death wasn't going to be revealing too much to anyone...

Her overall behavior is more sympy than not, though.

I suppose we'll end up lynching Pepper out of safe-play, but there are a couple of things that still don't make any sense in the "Pirate symp/Pepper FM" scenario:

- Kat's not a stupid player, yet from whichever way you look at it her behavior seems really stupid.

- The fact that she was a symp should have been as apparent to the FM as it is to us (unless they have some information that we don't, which in theory they shouldn't). So her death at night makes no sense. If we look at role speculation the Goldilocks scenario (just right) would be 3 FM. 2 FM + symp seems to weak and 3 FM + symp seems too strong unless it's an extremely good role-intensive game. Killing her to try to put us off Pepper's scent is a really stupid move compared to killing an innocent and let us deal with her (thus enabling the FM to kill another innocent on the day we lynch her).

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Pepper' post='1491923' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.31']We also know that this game has new roles that are unique to this game, so some kind of strange role that forces a FM to commit suicide would be quite powerful in deed. (It doesn't actually matter if the power is direct (causing the death if certain conditions are met) or indirect (by identifying some kind of lover-suicide pact-death link thing).)

Someone with that kind of power would need to be eliminated. Pirate's death is not at all a surprise.[/quote]

How do we know this game has unique roles, was it mentioned by Piper?

How would the FM be able to guess Kat had some kind of absurd forcing-FM-to-commit-suicide role? Wouldn't it seem much more apparent to them she was a symp? Even if they thought she was something else other than a symp, wouldn't it be much easier to get her lynched as a false revealer than to kill her at night?

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Pepper' post='1491923' date='Aug 23 2008, 10.31']:rolleyes: Tell me about it.[/quote]

Can you explain something for me. You clearly have the ability to write coherent sentences. Your brain is obviously functioning. Why were you so blatantly refusing to participate earlier in the game? Was it an act? Were you trying to provoke us?

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Tarina Tarantino' post='1491941' date='Aug 23 2008, 16.42']How do we know this game has unique roles, was it mentioned by Piper?

How would the FM be able to guess Kat had some kind of absurd forcing-FM-to-commit-suicide role? Wouldn't it seem much more apparent to them she was a symp? Even if they thought she was something else other than a symp, wouldn't it be much easier to get her lynched as a false revealer than to kill her at night?[/quote]
In the advertisement for signups Piper had some points about why this game would be fun. (That post has been edited away, so I can't quote it.)

One of those points was strange new roles. (Just after the point that there would be no role list given) So we knew coming in that there would be some new roles we wouldn't have seen (often) before.