MAFIA! Minigame 61.5 Lost in a Bad Book

[House Mooton]

[quote]tomorrow I am envisaging that we will have a discussion of how to solve Linear inhomogeneous second order differential equations!”[/quote]

Gah! Calculus! :leaving:

Sucks that Tyres was innocent. And i'm very annoyed that Twist was forced to vote for the lynch. There seemed to be plenty of people around when I left. Ho hum. :/

[House Mooton]

The bad news is that i'm not going to be around for the end of the day again, albeit for different reasons. But I should be around up to a couple of hours beforehand, so not as bad as yesterday.

I'm going to reread Brian when I get a minute.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

10 players remain: Bilbo, Colin, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

1 vote for Duane (Colin)
1 vote for Mike Watt (Daisy)

8 players have not voted: Bilbo, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.

[House Dondarrion]

[u]Daisy and Dexter:
[/u]


Not much to say here. The fact that the FM chose to kill someone who was on Tyres' mob and who was not a low poster is something that makes these two - together with Duane - prime suspects. They both clearly have to step up.

[House Mooton]

Brian has a joke vote for Tim and then defends my claim. Brian is clearly wise and good.
Then Brian returns with thoughts on everyone [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?act=findpost&hl=&pid=1664488"]here[/url].

Brian states that Bilbo's early aggression seems suspect. When questioned on this, Brian backs off [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?act=findpost&hl=&pid=1664580"]here[/url]. But then states a willingness to vote for Bilbo to gain information. Which is all a bit confused, really.

Thinks Daisy has contibuted more than Duane. Duane is his top choice amongst the low posters, and Dexter seems to be the lowest. Likes Marsha, Mike, and Tim. Is wishy-washy about Twist. Is happy to lynch Tyres. Likes me.

What I find odd about the kill is that while I quite liked Brian, plenty of players had suspicions of Brian and were happy to lynch him. Brian could well have been lynched at some point, so was not an obivous choice, IMO, for a night kill. But who stood to gain? Only really Duane and to a lesser extent Bilbo.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Colin' post='1665227' date='Jan 28 2009, 11.19'][u]Daisy and Dexter:
[/u]


Not much to say here. The fact that the FM chose to kill someone who was on Tyres' mob and who was not a low poster is something that makes these two - together with Duane - prime suspects. They both clearly have to step up.[/quote]

I agree. If they don't turn up we should lynch one of them, IMO. But there's plenty of time yet.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Daisy' post='1665182' date='Jan 28 2009, 09.28']Colin you cheating bastard..

Things aren't looking to good. I'm voting for [b]Mike Watts.[/b] His vote for Duane looked like distancing from the mob vote. (He acknowledges it isn't much but for some reason it was still enough for him to vote)[/quote]

Daisy, when you're back i'd like you to elaborate on this. I think Duane was a perfectly reasonable target at them time, as were any of the low posters.

ETA: Zombie dog scares me. :(

[House Wythers]

Okay I'm finally home from toil and must needs sleep. :P I'll be around for the meat of the day though.

[House Dondarrion]

[u]Mike:[/u]

First, I want to adress this post here:

[quote name='Mike Watt' post='1663292' date='Jan 27 2009, 00.10']Well, well doesn't that make you influential. Don't have coherent thoughts about it right now as I'm way past due for a nap. Well maybe just a few impression. If your telling the truth I can't blame you for claiming, otherwise you'd just have to play sheep all game. Although part of me just isn't buying it either I mean the role as you describe it basically could get you killed for no greater reason then you simply weren't around for a lynch train. Not a really fair role in that case. I'll have to think about it some more, after a good nap that is heh.[/quote]

This looks very confusing. Mike thinks that Vulva's power make him both influential [u]and [/u]a sheep. I don't think neither of these options is true, but Vulva surely cannot be both at the same time. Vulva is prefectly capable to play a game as usual with his role, he only has to make sure that he is online when dusk is approaching. He can push his own cases all day long, he can discuss and make his own analysises. Of course he has to change his vote when it is clear that his mob won't succeed, but that's what we're all supposed to do to get a lynch.




Mike then suggests to "test" Vulva's claim by lynching someone else without him being on the mob. A silly idea IMO. He thinks that a role like Vulva's is unlikely because it handicaps the player too much. However, since this is an all-roled game, it's not uncommon to distribute some non-helpful roles to balance the game. We can be sure though that Mike won't reveal a "damn odd role" himself. Looks like he got himself one of those on the role list.


After clarifying his issues with Bilbo, he changes his attention towards the quiet players. He adresses Duane's vote on Daisy which he thinks is odd. I personally don't think it was odd. Mike then decides to vote for Duane. It has already been adressed that this might have been an attempt to avoid being on Tyres lynch. However, it fits with Mike's approach to "find other avenues of discussion rather then just rehashing ". There remains the question why he didn't have a look at Daisy and Dexter. Here is the vote count at the time when Mike returned:


3 votes for Tyres (Bilbo, Marsha, Tim Bisley)
2 votes for Daisy (Duane, Vulva)
1 vote for Duane (Mike Watt)
1 vote for Tim Bisley (Brian Topp)
1 vote for Night (Twist)

3 players have not voted: Daisy, Dexter, Tyres.



He then makes this comment:

[quote name='Mike Watt' post='1664408' date='Jan 27 2009, 21.30']Well if you really think there is a partnership there is an argument to made for lynching the quiet one, if only because if your wrong then you haven't lynched a contributor. That said who I really want hear from is still Duane, though Dexter and Daisy really need to speak up. What is it with the D characters this game. :P[/quote]


He has realized that Duane is not the only quiet person out there, but he still does not give up his vote on Duane, even though no one joined his mob so far. Shouldn't he have changed his vote to Tyres or Daisy at that point? I might be wrong, but Mike gave us no reason so far why he did not vote for Tyres. He does not reject the idea of a Daisy/Tyres partnership and implies that he prefered to lynch Daisy over Tyres, but he is sill holding his vote on Duane.


Afterwards he gives Dexter a free pass because of his RL issues. Mike is still voting for Duane. 25 minutes later Brian joins his mob on Duane. And guess what, only half an hour later we can hear Mr Watt say:

[quote name='Mike Watt' post='1664544' date='Jan 27 2009, 23.01']Yeah I can dig what your saying. This artificial shortening of the day is a bummer. I think its time people got their vote down on a main suspect. Lets not lynch until the last minute before Vulva has to go, but lets put our cards on the table.[/quote]

Eventually Duane returns. He gives us his opinions about every player. Mike's reaction looks a bit odd to me:

[quote name='Mike Watt' post='1664632' date='Jan 27 2009, 23.45']So anyway Duane, concerns about Brian aside do you have anything to say about your behavior from before. You may or may not have noticed that your a top lynch candidate at this time.[/quote]

Which behaviour? That he voted for Daisy without a reason? His behaviour looks especially odd if we remember that he was willing to give Brian credist for posting more stuff. Why is he still so fixated on Duane? Why not Tyres or Daisy? When he leaves he states that Duane is kind of dodging him and that he doesn't like that. To be true, I also think that Duane has to explain himself.



You might have noticed that my main point against Mike is refusal to vote for the two prime suspects Tyres and Daisy. We know that Tyres has been innocent (if he had been a symp or a godfather, he would have revealed a role), so it makes no sense that he tried to protect him. That leaves three possibilities:



a) He was acting genuinely, being tunnelvisioned on Duane.

b) He was protecting Daisy.

c) He was trying hard to avoid being on Tyres' or Daisy's mob.




The main point against him is that he pushed to vote for the main suspects just when the Duane mob got momentum. That gave him an alibi to keep his vote where it was. If he was protecting Daisy indeed, his plan has been a bit complicated though. The safe route would have been to vote for Tyres. Maybe he feared that voting for Tyres would make his connection to daisy too obviously?



Edit: spelling again

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Daisy' post='1665184' date='Jan 28 2009, 04.30']I'll do a more indepth read later on (on other players), but need to first get my anti-modkill post in.[/quote]
This is not ok. I seriously hope you are back in only a couple hours. The modkill rules are not an invitation to post once every period. You've done absolutely nothing so far and the game has been about 40+ hours long. Come on.

[quote name='Colin' post='1665195' date='Jan 28 2009, 04.52']Player who has added the most contribution so far. His biggest plus is his case on Mike. I have serious doubts that an evil player would try to make a big case against someone which is based on a wrong premise. Quite the contrary Bilbo looks like someone innocent who thought that he found a loophole in Mike's argumentation and who got that excited about it that he didn't double-check the fundament of his case again.[/quote]
I don't appreciate the condescension nor the incorrect facts here. I mentioned before that I knew the case was bumpkis after I posted it, so I left it up to see the reaction from Mike and from others. I ended up feeling better about Mike after his response, so it was worth it in my mind.

[quote name='Colin' post='1665195' date='Jan 28 2009, 04.52']Still, there's something that bugged me about Bilbo. After hours of debating the extistence of a symp. When Vulva voted for Daisy because Tyres defended her he makes this comment:[/quote]
I don't recall debating the existence of a symp, I simply said there should not be a symp. End of debate.

[quote name='Colin' post='1665195' date='Jan 28 2009, 04.52']Well, I can follow his reasoning, but then he only delivered that explanation when Vulva had already questioned his advise to lynch tyres instead of Daisy.

I'm asking myself why Bilbo advised Vulva to vote for Tyres (innocent) instead of Daisy when there was already a consensus that there was no symp. Why didn't he explain his reasoning (fake symping; defense too obvious) right from the start?[/quote]
I don't get your point here. Right from the start, as in only a few posts before? I didn't think it was something that I was going to have to explain.

Re: Brian,
I am actually a little relieved that he was the one that kicked it because I was suspicious of him. His list, that he posted twice, really didn't take much of a hard line with anyone and looked pretty suspicious to me. Here is the second list of his (that wasn't linked):
[quote name='Brian Topp' post='1664660' date='Jan 27 2009, 18.02']Bilbo is playing an aggressive game. I would not be against lynching him, if only to actually get information from the lynch. If more people contribute on a regular basis, his pushing will not be as necessary, and I would be interested to push him back, at the least.
Daisy - I've got nothing. I addressed that other people have a concern, but I don't.
Dexter - Again, low poster. Now that you're actually here, he rises in prominence as a non-contributor, even though he has provided reasons for his absence. If we're lynching someone for low posts, sure. But it's going to tell us squat.
Marsha I don't want to lynch. I disagree with her on a particular point, but that doesn't change my overall opinion.
Mike is useful, not a lynch option for me.
Tim has returned, said some interesting things, none have made me suspicious.
Twist I am not suspicious of, just acknowledging the fact that her word carries less weight than anyone else's.
Tyres I didn't want to put at 1 vote away from a lynch with that much time left. Too easy for someone over-eager to hammer without further discussion. Doesn't mean I'm against lynching him in the end.[/quote]
I don't think Mike or Marsha would have made this particular kill. His only unfavorable opinion is really on Dexter, well and me. I don't think the killers would kill someone that went out of their way to advocate from them, so I guess that really brings up Dexter, Daisy, and perhaps Tim IMO as suspects today. I'm kind of amazed that neither Daisy nor Dexter voted yesterday, making themselves completely useless mafiosos, while Tim was in on the lynch mob. My guess is that there is definitely a killer off the mob (Daisy, Dexter, Duane, or Mike) and possibly one on (Marsha, Tim, Vulva, Twist). Of those on the mob, only Tim really is someone I'd be alright lynching today and Twist has crept up on my list because of this I suppose. Still, I feel more confident that one baddie stayed off the lynch, so I am going to start with the Queen of avoiding modkills and announcing it, [b]Daisy[/b].

[House Dayne]

Where did you go doggy? And why are you alive now when you died in the opening scene?

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665286' date='Jan 28 2009, 13.49']I don't recall debating the existence of a symp, I simply said there should not be a symp. End of debate.


I don't get your point here. Right from the start, as in only a few posts before? I didn't think it was something that I was going to have to explain.[/quote]
I am perfectly aware that your stance in the discussion was that there is no symp. That's why I was puzzled that your comment about voting for Tyres instead of Daisy implied that you thought there was a symp. However, I checked this one again and it looks like I have mixed up the symp and the master. Since Tyres would be the symp and Daisy the master, your advice would not point at Daisy being the symp and your later explanation of possible fake symping looks more genuine now.


[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665286' date='Jan 28 2009, 13.49']I don't appreciate the condescension nor the incorrect facts here. I mentioned before that I knew the case was bumpkis after I posted it, so I left it up to see the reaction from Mike and from others. I ended up feeling better about Mike after his response, so it was worth it in my mind.[/quote]This has been meant as point in your favour. Now that you deny it, you just lost that credit. :P

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665307' date='Jan 28 2009, 14.37']Where did you go doggy? And why are you alive now when you died in the opening scene?[/quote]
I wasn't allowed to post during day 1. I was only allowed to post during the night, but I was absent myself during that time. Fortunatly the FM didn't realize that I was indeed a player, otherwise I might be lying on that floor again. :)

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Colin' post='1665308' date='Jan 28 2009, 08.37']I am perfectly aware that your stance in the discussion was that there is no symp. That's why I was puzzled that your comment about voting for Tyres instead of Daisy implied that you thought there was a symp. However, I checked this one again and it looks like I have mixed up the symp and the master. Since Tyres would be the symp and Daisy the master, your advice would not point at Daisy being the symp and your later explanation of possible fake symping looks more genuine now.[/quote]
I was merely talking about connections. I guess my metaphor was poor and was incorrectly interpreted. At no point was I suggested either were symps. You don't need to be a symp in order to fake symp someone. My point was simply that lynching Daisy for Tyres' defense (which we now know to be genuine, proving my point) is extremely poor play and unfair to Daisy. We can come up with plenty of good reasons to lynch Daisy and avoid the bad ones.

[quote name='Colin' post='1665308' date='Jan 28 2009, 08.37']This has been meant as point in your favour. Now that you deny it, you just lost that credit. :P[/quote]
I'd rather set the record straight rather than collect brownie points.

[quote name='Colin' post='1665311' date='Jan 28 2009, 08.41']I wasn't allowed to post during day 1. I was only allowed to post during the night, but I was absent myself during that time. Fortunatly the FM didn't realize that I was indeed a player, otherwise I might be lying on that floor again. :)[/quote]
Why would the FM think you were a player? Why would anyone think you were a player?
Start of Day 1:
[quote name='Richard Modrahl' post='1662764' date='Jan 26 2009, 12.01']It is day 1.

11 players remain: Bilbo, Brian Topp, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Tyres, Vulva.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

11 players have not voted: Bilbo, Brian Topp, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Tyres, Vulva.[/quote]
/kill Tyres and Brian Topp
Start of Day 2:
[quote name='Richard Modrahl' post='1665077' date='Jan 28 2009, 02.25']It is day 2.

10 players remain: Bilbo, Colin, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

10 players have not voted: Bilbo, Colin, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.[/quote]
Again, why would anyone think that you were going to be a part of this game?

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665319' date='Jan 28 2009, 14.54']I was merely talking about connections. I guess my metaphor was poor and was incorrectly interpreted. At no point was I suggested either were symps. You don't need to be a symp in order to fake symp someone. My point was simply that lynching Daisy for Tyres' defense (which we now know to be genuine, proving my point) is extremely poor play and unfair to Daisy. We can come up with plenty of good reasons to lynch Daisy and avoid the bad ones.


I'd rather set the record straight rather than collect brownie points.


Why would the FM think you were a player? Why would anyone think you were a player?
Start of Day 1:

/kill Tyres and Brian Topp
Start of Day 2:

Again, why would anyone think that you were going to be a part of this game?[/quote]
I don't really know what you're up to, but oooo-kay:

[quote]Colin cleared his throat noisily. Wait, what?
It seems you have some quite incompetent killers on the loose, as [color="#FF0000"][u]Colin the dog is alive and talking and with you[/u][/color]. You seem to remember hearing some Leonard Cohen music playing during the lecture, so maybe it all makes sense…[/quote]
[quote]It is day 2.

10 players remain: Bilbo, Colin, Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

10 players have not voted: Bilbo, [color="#FF0000"][u]Colin[/u][/color], Daisy, Dexter, Duane, Marsha, Mike Watt, Tim Bisley, Twist, Vulva.[/quote]


Edit: fixed the quotes

I knew that the mods would introduce me in the evening scene, but apparently they managed to do this at the end of a rather long scene, so I guess the FM just weren't aware during the night that I was a resurrected player.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Colin' post='1665343' date='Jan 28 2009, 09.21']I knew that the mods would introduce me in the evening scene, but apparently they managed to do this at the end of a rather long scene, so I guess the FM just weren't aware during the night that I was a resurrected player.[/quote]
Oh fair enough, I didn't finish reading that post. I stopped after I saw Tyres was Malc and innocent.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665349' date='Jan 28 2009, 15.26']Oh fair enough, I didn't finish reading that post. I stopped after I saw Tyres was Malc and innocent.[/quote]
Then you are clearly an FM, Sir. :pirate:

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Colin' post='1665358' date='Jan 28 2009, 09.30']Then you are clearly an FM, Sir. :pirate:[/quote]
Breathtaking. Your deductive reasoning has me at a loss for words. :)

Anyways, why Duane over your Mike and Daisy theory?

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='Colin' post='1665343' date='Jan 28 2009, 10.21']I knew that the mods would introduce me in the evening scene, but apparently they managed to do this at the end of a rather long scene, so I guess the FM just weren't aware during the night that I was a resurrected player.[/quote]

I missed it too, but I was pretty tired and had to read a couple times to find the info on Tyres.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='Bilbo' post='1665359' date='Jan 28 2009, 15.33']Breathtaking. Your deductive reasoning has me at a loss for words. :)

Anyways, why Duane over your Mike and Daisy theory?[/quote]
Because Duane apparently need some pressure and I still think that regarding a voting pattern analysis the CF on Duane might be useful. I also said that I am willing to change my vote, so I might as well change it to Daisy, especially if continues to lay low.


The Mike+ Daisy theory only came to my mind when I was writing my reread on Mike. It was only then that I realized that there were some contradictions in his behaviour.


Of course, I also want to gather the opinion of others regarding that theory, and I want Mike to explain what he has been up to.