Formula One 2009 I

[burnt hound]

Yeah, Button looks set to take the championship. But you never know. These last years, it has been fairly close up to the last race. Rosberg looked good this race, but a slip-up leaving the pit lane, and he gets a drive through, and his chance at ending up on the podium is gone. Too bad.

Hamilton had smooth sailings. His KERS stopped working, so they turned it off for twenty seconds, then it worked again. He was the only one who seemed to be able to use it this race. The Ferrari's were obviously not. I wonder if Kovalainen will race for McLaren next year?

[williamjm]

Hamilton win, Button finishes one place in front of Barrichello, and Vettel gets a late drive through penalty to drop from what would have been a comfortable second into fourth. Button has a 15 point lead on his closest challenger with 3 races to go.

Almost looks inevitable.

If Button doesn't have any disasters then he should win from here regardless of how well anyone else performs. However, he can't relax yet, if for some reason he doesn't finish the next race (whether reliability or a crash) and Barichello happens to win then suddenly the equation becomes a 5 point lead with two races left, which isn't anywhere near as comfortable.

[Black Wizard]

Unless something odd happens Button will be the 2009 World Champion. I'm tipping Barrichello to finally win at Brazil though.

[DJDonegal]

So now with the season coming to a close, it's a good time to look at the confirmed team line ups for next year, using the ever reliable Wikipedia as my starting point:

Brawn GP

No confirmations. Likely to keep Button, but rumours of Rosberg replacing Barrichello are abound.

Ferrari

Massa will drive as long as he recovers completely, and Fisichella is going to be their test driver. Alonso is heavy favourite to take the seat likely to be left vacant by the departing Raikonnen.

Red Bull

Already confirmed - team line up to remain the same.

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton stays. Kovalianen is surely out. Kimi to come in?

Force India

Have said they have no reason to change line up, but Indian driver Chandhok has been linked with a move, possibly as a test driver for now.

Renault

Will they even be in F1 next year? Alonso is off to Ferrari, almost definitely, but Grosjean will likely be kept on. Expect a very weak line up next year.

Toro Rosso

My guess is they'll probably stay with Alguersuari and Buemi for one more season. They've already ousted their deadwood driver Bourdais anyway.

Toyota

No confirmation yet, but Trulli is probably on his way out, with no word on what Glock is going to be doing.

Williams

Brand new line up expected. Nakajima is supported by Toyota, who provided the Williams engines this year, but Williams are getting their engines elsewhere next year. Rosberg is out, it's just a matter of where he ends up.

USF1, Campos, Manor GP and Lotus

All the new boys in town are without drivers at the moment, so we'll be seeing a lot of new talent next year I would hope.

So who from this year is left without a confirmed drive next year? Alonso has a contract with Renault, but with Briatore gone, their reputation tarnished, and Ferrari beckoning, he has to leave, so he'll be with Ferrari, which leaves Raikonnen in the cold. Though there is that tip he may be on his way to replace Kovalainen at McLaren.

Then there's the BMW pair, Kubica and Heidfeld, on the market. If Trulli does leave Toyota, then I think Kubica may pop up there. Barrichello looks like he's going to be ousted by the arrival of Rosberg, and that may simply end in a straight swap between the two drivers.

[williamjm]

Renault

Will they even be in F1 next year? Alonso is off to Ferrari, almost definitely, but Grosjean will likely be kept on. Expect a very weak line up next year.

I seem to remember reading on the BBC somewhere that Kubica was rumoured to be going to Renault next year, which would make sense.

It does seem that there's a chance BMW will be on the grid next year (under a different name, obviously) as well.

[DJDonegal]

I had heard that, but we could be a long way from resolving that issue. The drivers may want some security and jump ship as soon as they can, so I'm going to assume (for now) that they won't be there in any guise next season. Did you hear the Kubica rumour before or after the race fixing?

[Slick Mongoose]

I heard the Kubica rumour during the Singapore Grand Prix. I think it might have originated from Eddie Jordan.

Edit: Rumour has it that Toyota are letting both drivers go. Whether they're pulling out or trying someone else is unknown.

[Black Wizard]

I'm a bit dissapointed that Kimi will probably be going back to McLaren next year. I wanted him to have one more chance in the Ferrari since he was performing very well until Singapore. It'll be interesting to see how Alonso copes with an experienced and fast tem-mate next season. He threw his rattle out of the pram when Hamilton turned out to have the beating of him, and Ferrari's days of backing one driver and one driver only appear to be over.

[DJDonegal]

I think the main problem Alonso had lay with McLaren, and that they were allowing a rookie to have equal footing with a double world champion in the team. Massa is at a completely different level today to Hamilton then, as he was only one corner away from winning a world championship just last year.

I know Alonso made comments about McLaren messing up in the Drivers Championship in 2007 because they decided to support both drivers rather than one, and lost it all to Raikonnen, but in hindsight I think that was a culmination of his frustration rather than feeling a team should always support one driver over the other.

[williamjm]

I heard the Kubica rumour during the Singapore Grand Prix. I think it might have originated from Eddie Jordan.

I heard it in the post-Grand Prix coverage.

Edit: Rumour has it that Toyota are letting both drivers go. Whether they're pulling out or trying someone else is unknown.

Officially, I think they're meant to be deciding in November whether to stay on, which seems odd to me. If they're going to continue, then they should decide as soon as possible otherwise the team will be distracted in its preparations for next year and if they're going to pull out then there's still no benefit in delaying the decision.

[Gerold Hightower]

Confirmation: Alonso replaces Raikkonen at Ferrari.

[DJDonegal]

Finally. So quick update:

Ferrari

Already confirmed - Alonso in for Raikonnen, Massa returns, Fisichella to be test driver.

Red Bull

Already confirmed - team line up to remain the same.

Brawn GP

No confirmations. Likely to keep Button, but rumours of Rosberg replacing Barrichello are abound.

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton stays. Kovalainen is surely out. Kimi to come in?

Force India

Have said they have no reason to change line up, but Indian driver Chandhok has been linked with a move, possibly as a test driver for now.

Renault

Alonso is off to Ferrari, but Grosjean will likely be kept on. Expect a very weak line up next year.

Toro Rosso

My guess is they'll probably stay with Alguersuari and Buemi for one more season. They've already ousted their deadwood driver Bourdais anyway.

Toyota

No confirmation yet, but Trulli is probably on his way out, with no word on what Glock is going to be doing.

Williams

Brand new line up expected. Nakajima is supported by Toyota, who provided the Williams engines this year, but Williams are getting their engines elsewhere next year. Rosberg is out, it's just a matter of where he ends up.

USF1, Campos, Manor GP and Lotus

All the new boys in town are without drivers at the moment, so we'll be seeing a lot of new talent next year I would hope.

Kubica and Heidfeld still available.

[Slick Mongoose]

Alonso in a competitive car is good news, assuming Ferrari get their act together for next year. This has to mean Kimi to McLaren, which I think is also good news, as it gives Hamilton someone to compete with.

[Gerold Hightower]

Vettel wins the Japanese GP ahead of Trulli and Hamilton. Barrichello and Button finish 7th and 8th, leaving the drivers championship open. Button is now 16 points ahead of Vettel and 14 ahead of Barrichello with two races to go. Unlikely that he loses it but at least there's a shred of suspense left.

A lot of accidents in yesterday's qualifying. Glock was injured and missed the race. A pity looking at what was possible with the Toyota this weekend. Similar though not quite so bad with Webber, who missed the qualifying after destroying his car in the last free practice session.

[Black Wizard]

Jenson Button should still win the world championship, but it'll be after the most awful final two-thirds of a season ever. He dominated the early part but then fell away and is still leading by virtue of none of his rivals having taken the title challenge by the scruff of the neck.

I'd love to see Barrichello win in Brazil, even if Button takes the title there. Although I hope the title goes to Abu Dhabi.

[Slick Mongoose]

Jenson Button should still win the world championship, but it'll be after the most awful final two-thirds of a season ever. He dominated the early part but then fell away and is still leading by virtue of none of his rivals having taken the title challenge by the scruff of the neck.

Bah. If he'd won the last 6 races instead of the first 6, everyone would be talking about his comeback and what a great champion he was.

And after the season we've had, with every team's performance changing dramatically from one race to the next, to be so consistently in the points is fairly remarkable.

[DJDonegal]

As well as the fact that it's definitely harder to defend a championship lead than it is to win races and take the lead. A lot of your time is spent worrying about crashing out and scoring no points at all, so you drive within yourself to a certain extent, and I think Button can be guilty of that to some extent. I'm not sure I can recall him taking any risks lately, and after each race in which he scores points recently he is happy with the result, as I would be in his position. He just needs to keep picking points at this stage, everyone knew Red Bull should have done well at Suzuka, and they did.

Just Interlagos and Abu Dhabi to go. Both very warm - should suit the Brawns from here on out.

[Black Wizard]

Things may not go as expected as Interlagos due to the unpredictable weather. (Possibly the altitude as well, although that's a theory I have no evidence for.)

[Slick Mongoose]

you drive within yourself to a certain extent, and I think Button can be guilty of that to some extent. I'm not sure I can recall him taking any risks lately, and after each race in which he scores points recently he is happy with the result, as I would be in his position.

But he had a great race. Qualifying went poorly, mostly because of the yellow flag, which dropped him back to 11th (edit: Actually 10th. Not easy to keep up. :P). Then he was unsurprisingly taken by two KERS cars at the start (Kovaleinen and Fisichella).

He then overtook Fisichella almost immediately, got lucky with the Sutil-Kovaleinen incident and overtook someone else (Edit: Kubica).

Two overtaking moves is more risk than anyone else in the race, and he was clearly pushing hard. If he'd started in 7th (as he would have, had Buemi not crashed in quali) he'd probably have ended up 4th or 5th.

On the subject of qualifying, why can't they add on a couple of minutes to the time if there's a crash? Under the current regulations it's possible, with a lot of accidents, for nobody to put a time down at all.

[Gerold Hightower]

Over the last decade they have tinkered a lot with the qualifying to make it more entertaining. Back in the 90s it was a one hour session and they just counted everybody's best lap time. Usually those were driven at the end of the session so nobody would go out in the first 30 minutes. The current format gives the drivers an incentive to go out early to make sure that they have at least one timed lap.