HT Reddy Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 I think that today's lynch should be one of these 3. I'm a bit confused about Piper's death. Could anybody present their theories about it?I suspect that Piper was killed for being a strong player like Gert. Maybe it's worth a reread of him though - who were his suspects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Piper's suspects before lynching were you, me Uber and TheMalcolm, but he seemed less suspicious of TheMalcolm towards the end, and was focusing more on either you or Reddy, and had suspicions of me also. See below: I don't know if Malc is right about Uber, but I know that Malc now looks much better to me. I have problems to see an evil Malcolm act like that. He gets the WJ tier.If you should come up innocent, we can be sure that Uber and Reddy are not partnered, since Reddy wouldn't have risked to get his partner lynched. That means that two of your non-voters of day 1 would be innocent (Gert + Reddy/Uber). So, either there have been two FM on your mob, or one of Uber/Reddy is evil.Btw, why are you not suspicious of May?Piper is still theorising about the nature of the game and I don't see anything that would cause an FM such worry that they would feel the need to kill to prevent things going further, unless the existence of two FM's was something that they didn't want closely examined?In terms of individuals he accused it's all pretty general and I don't see anything exeptionally worrying in here for those accused. It doesn't reveal much about the remaining players guilt but perhaps we are looking at a pair of FM rather than a symp, that's the only possiblity I see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 and WJ, well if he's evil then we've basically already lost, so I can't see the point of making a case on him (I actually don't find him suspicious though this game). And that leaves you and Malc. The point of me saying that I voted WJ is that it's a semi-rule of westeros mafia that symps don't vote for masters. I believe WJ to be particularly keen on maintaining that as the case, so if I was his symp I wouldn't have voted for him. I guess you'll have to take my word for that though.If WJ is evil then we would only lose the game by listening to comments like these. You are pretty much saying 'I don't want to look at Whiskey Jack because he's so great that he will somehow beat us, so I'm going to find someone easier and less intimidating to challenge.'Or perhaps you are saying I am the symp/partner of WJ and I don't want people to look at him, particularly the new players who may be intimidated by his reputation.After this post I don't think I'll be taking your word for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HT Reddy Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 If WJ is evil then we would only lose the game by listening to comments like these. You are pretty much saying 'I don't want to look at Whiskey Jack because he's so great that he will somehow beat us, so I'm going to find someone easier and less intimidating to challenge.'Or perhaps you are saying I am the symp/partner of WJ and I don't want people to look at him, particularly the new players who may be intimidated by his reputation.After this post I don't think I'll be taking your word for anything.I'm not intimatidated by WJ it's more that I don't think that I am capable of finding out if WJ is evil unless he does something significantly out of the ordinary. If we lynch Malc and he comes up guilty and the game continues I will look at everyone tomorrow though (shouldn't be hard, if i am still alive it will only be two other people there to look at. :)By all means look at WJ and see if you find him suspicious though. And it's a good thing you don't take my word for something (though a crummy reason for it) but you can check with the others here if you want - we do tend to play that symps aren't to vote for their masters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted November 13, 2009 Author Share Posted November 13, 2009 Certain people are browsing naked. :angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolm Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 WJ -> He is active, and most of his posts make sense. I don't quite know his style and because of that I can't say too much about him. This mass-reveal thing could be an attempt to falsely claim a role.Trust me, evil WJ would false reveal before and without mass reveal. He knows that we generally trust first claimant more... and we have no space to lynch both claimants. Evidently, he sets a trap for a baddie wanting to claim his role. She is after-all my Tier 1 suspect, along with Malc and WJ.Having three players out of four in first tier isn't helpful. Why don't you suspect Reddy?I'm a bit confused about Piper's death. Could anybody present their theories about it?Like Gert, Piper was totally unlynchable. That's enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 I am going to bed in about 15 minutes. It's pretty late here, does anyone have anything to add before I go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolm Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 I am going to bed in about 15 minutes. It's pretty late here, does anyone have anything to add before I go?No. We are waiting for WJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 No. We are waiting for WJ.Is he likely to be here soon or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolm Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Is he likely to be here soon or what?He is late.Perhaps he wasn't late yesterday, but today he definitely is. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Posting from my blackberry. Didn't turn the computer on this morning and I'm running late to work.So here's my reveal - I don't really have a role. I was just putting the threat out there to keep the FM from fake claiming a role. Would have been too risky for them, since they wouldn't know what I was going to claim. I was trying to make it so we could trust any claims that were made.The fact that we didn't get any claims at all is worrisome. There are 3 possibilities that I can see:1) Gert and Piper had our roles and the FM got lucky with both their kills.2) One of Gert or Piper had a role, and the other role is a Soldier who is still hidden.3) The mods only gave us 1 role. Which would be ridiculous given that there are 2 evil players out of 8. But I guess its possible.The really scary thing is, if number 1 is right, then that means neither Gert nor Piper was a symp. And I don't think TMW was either (would have expected a symp to fake claim something) so we probably would still have 2 evil players alive in that situation regardless of the setup. All of this has me hoping that option 2 is correct and we still have a hidden soldier.Anyway - I'll be at work and able to post more in about an hour. I have a feeling about who I want to vote based on yesterday's lynch mob. But I need to look back at it again before committing in that direction. Preview - currently leaning toward May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Posting from my blackberry. Didn't turn the computer on this morning and I'm running late to work.So here's my reveal - I don't really have a role. I was just putting the threat out there to keep the FM from fake claiming a role. Would have been too risky for them, since they wouldn't know what I was going to claim. I was trying to make it so we could trust any claims that were made.The fact that we didn't get any claims at all is worrisome. There are 3 possibilities that I can see:1) Gert and Piper had our roles and the FM got lucky with both their kills.2) One of Gert or Piper had a role, and the other role is a Soldier who is still hidden.3) The mods only gave us 1 role. Which would be ridiculous given that there are 2 evil players out of 8. But I guess its possible.The really scary thing is, if number 1 is right, then that means neither Gert nor Piper was a symp. And I don't think TMW was either (would have expected a symp to fake claim something) so we probably would still have 2 evil players alive in that situation regardless of the setup. All of this has me hoping that option 2 is correct and we still have a hidden soldier.Anyway - I'll be at work and able to post more in about an hour. I have a feeling about who I want to vote based on yesterday's lynch mob. But I need to look back at it again before committing in that direction. Preview - currently leaning toward May.It would be pretty bad luck to lose both roles, not sure how likely that would be. I know it doesn't prove anything but I am innocent, lynching me could cost us the game. I have to go to bed, its late and Ive got a busy day tomorrow icnluding an engagement party in the evening which is the deadline time. I'll be on when I wake up (if I'm not killed while I'm sleeping). Hopefully I'll have access to a computer at days end if I'm still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 4 votes for The Man Who (May, ubermensch, Piper of Chaos, Whiskeyjack)2 votes for ubermensch (HT Reddy, TheMalcolm)1 vote for May (The Man Who)Okay, here's what I've been thinking about. The day 2 vote count. My question is, would both evil players vote for ubermensch? Why would they? Seems like a strange move, to both pile onto his lynch mob. Unless perhaps Malcolm is symp to Reddy, and he was trying to send a signal. Otherwise, I'd expect them to split their votes in that scenario.So thats why I was sort of leaning toward a vote for May. I think the most likely situation is that 2 of May, Reddy, and Malcolm are evil. If I don't think Malcolm + Reddy are likely to be partners because they both voted for uber, then that would mean it would have to be May + one of Malcolm/Reddy. Making May the right vote for today.Of course, there are problems with the theory.1) Like I said before, Malcolm could be symp to Reddy. Need to look back and see if that is a realistic possibility.2) Its possible that Malcolm/Reddy are FM who just don't think about voting analysis at all. And for some reason, they both went after uber. Maybe they just felt the move fit better with the approach they've taken to the game so far.3) I have a huge amount of lingering suspicion for uber. I just can't shake it. Logic tells me that if he was evil, he would have voted for TMW on night 1. But what if he's just not a logical player? What if he's new and kind of clueless, and chose to withhold his vote because for some reason he felt that would make him look more innocent / less bloodthirsty?Basically, my gut says that May looks innocent. I'm neutral on Malcolm. And I find Reddy and uber to be suspicious. Thats just gut feeling based on attitude and behavior. So on the one hand, I think logic is saying vote for May. But on the other hand, logic had us lynch TMW yesterday, and my gut feeling is bad about other players.Right now, I'm back to being torn. Think I need to re-read a bit more. Would like to hear from other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolm Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 1) Like I said before, Malcolm could be symp to Reddy. Need to look back and see if that is a realistic possibility.No objection. I agree that formally I can be a Reddy's symp. I always pushed in other directions.2) Its possible that Malcolm/Reddy are FM who just don't think about voting analysis at all. And for some reason, they both went after uber. Maybe they just felt the move fit better with the approach they've taken to the game so far.It's more doubtful. Even without thinking about voting analysis, we would need to distance from each other somehow. Yet, I never attacked Reddy, and he liked me until today. 3) I have a huge amount of lingering suspicion for uber. I just can't shake it. Logic tells me that if he was evil, he would have voted for TMW on night 1.Once more: if he is alone killer, it's logical for him to spoil whatever lynch, in fear to kill his own symp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 we do tend to play that symps aren't to vote for their masters here.Reddy is telling the truth about this. Symps don't 100% follow this rule (there are always exceptions), but its the general approach to the role. Especially for somebody who is my symp - the veteran players know me well enough to know that if I'm FM, once you vote for me I will most likely cross you off my list of possible symps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Once more: if he is alone killer, it's logical for him to spoil whatever lynch, in fear to kill his own symp.Hmm...you often have a different perspective on things, and this is one of those times. I never really considered that possibility.But wouldn't that carry over to all lynches, and even all night kills? He can't play the game afraid of letting anybody die, because then it would be impossible for him to win. Are you saying that a lone FM in this game would only work to kill/lynch people who he could eliminate as his symp? Instead of just playing naturally?Also, if that is how you feel, then was there evidence that Gert and Piper couldn't be symps to uber prior to their deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Malcolm - at this point, do you feel that I could still be FM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMalcolm Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 But wouldn't that carry over to all lynches, and even all night kills?Not night kills. A lone killer can afford to miss a lynch, but he has to kill.Also, if that is how you feel, then was there evidence that Gert and Piper couldn't be symps to uber prior to their deaths?At Day 1, anybody could be Uber's symp. Nobody said anything important about him, so he would have to gamble.At Day 2, yeah, killing Piper would be suboptimal for him, in comparison with killing you or me. It's weak point in my theories.Malcolm - at this point, do you feel that I could still be FM?No. Usually I can't make any opinion about you until Day 3... Well, now it's Day 3 and I think you look completely innocent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Usually I can't make any opinion about you until Day 3... Well, now it's Day 3 and I think you look completely innocent.Okay, good. Thats the answer I expected - its consistent with your previous statements about how you are approaching/analyzing the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Doing a bit of symp - FM analysis. The problem is, its mostly based on what I'd expect from a normal symp/FM relationship. It doesn't work as well when we (possibly) have a promotable symp, because he still has to be concerned about distancing and could even feel it is a good move to lynch his FM master, create distance, and then be promoted to the FM job. I've personally taken that route as a promotable symp in the past, when my FM masters were doing a bad job and I wanted to take over.Anyway, given the above, I'm not sure how much its worth, but what I found was that nobody makes sense as a (normal) symp to Reddy, Malcolm, or uber. Based on various comments, arguments, and 'tier 1' suspicions that have been posted. May is a different story. Reddy and uber could both work as symps to her.But again....I'm not sure this is worth much. I'm only posting it because I took the time to read through the whole thread, so I might as well get this out there.The other conclusion I made while reading the thread is that Malcolm looks relatively good to me at the moment. I don't think I want to lynch him today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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