Rethinking Stannis

[Sun Tzu]

Good point about Stan being challenged by Gendry and Edric (presumably Edric being safely gotten away by Davos means he's got more to do in the story, and we already have lots of set up for Gendry).

I have a BIG QUESTION, I realize I may have interpreted something all wrong, and I can't find the chapter I want (curse you GRRM for making it impossible to find a given chapter by not numbering them somehow or providing a TOC by POV):

I have been under the impression that Stannis believes that Mel FORESAW Renly's death rather than causing it. However upon reflection I realize that's totally incompatible with his sending Davos rowing Mel to Storm's End so she could birth her shadow baby.

???

Stannis is Mel's bitch. It is known.

[R'holler]

Stevem, Ned and Robb were only whacked after they had done substantial things. Up until now Gendry and Edric have not done anything to affect the story. I do not believe that GRRM would spend so much time building these characters if they do not somehow change the events like Robb or Ned. I agree that they might be killed in the future one never knows with GRRM but only after they do something 'big'. I do not believe that they will be able to achieve anything with their 'bastard' status, so that means the last trueborn 'Baratheon' has to die for them to be able to have an impact. The only possible impact that I think they can have is through their father's blood and that would be claiming their rights. It is possible that one of them might marry Stannis' daughter to legitimize his claim (possibly Edric), I don't know.

BastardSword, I agree with you. That part is rather confusing unless Stannis does not know exactly what it is that Mel does, all he knows is that for an enemy to die Mel has to be close. Mel does say that when she looks in the fire she sees possibilities of the future but nothing definite. He seems to have no recollection of his shadow killing Renly but he does feel guilt/remorse over his brother's death. Frankly, I find Mel, her magic and her relationship with Stannis very confusing.

All I know is that whatever she is doing is weakening Stannis and that is what I think will kill him in the end.

[Kingslayer]

Even then, would the Lannisters' execution of Eddard Stark and the Red Wedding really outweigh the burning of godswoods (and forced worship of R'hllor) and the acceptance of wildlings into the realm?

True. Stannis is attacking the foundations of northern culture, and he'll pay the price.

[Kelli Fury]

Not *all* of the North worships the Old Gods.

[Steve Moss]

Assuming the northmen would even be able to get into their first battle before news of their turning over to Stannis Baratheon reached the Lannisters or the Freys.

Let's assume they didn't and the Lannister and Freys executed the hostages. What then? Every Lannister and Frey prisoner would met the exact same fate as the war dragged out. It is counter productive to kill prisoners, as I am sure Kevan Lanister and Randall Tarly are aware, as well as every other half way competent military commander is aware.

A dead prisoner has no value.

The PoWs have two main purposes. First, a gaurantee that if their captors have relatives are captured, an exchange can occur. Second, ransom. Anything else and their captors are signing thier own death warrants.

Stevem, Ned and Robb were only whacked after they had done substantial things. Up until now Gendry and Edric have not done anything to affect the story. I do not believe that GRRM would spend so much time building these characters if they do not somehow change the events like Robb or Ned. I agree that they might be killed in the future one never knows with GRRM but only after they do something 'big'. I do not believe that they will be able to achieve anything with their 'bastard' status, so that means the last trueborn 'Baratheon' has to die for them to be able to have an impact. The only possible impact that I think they can have is through their father's blood and that would be claiming their rights. It is possible that one of them might marry Stannis' daughter to legitimize his claim (possibly Edric), I don't know.

Jorah Mormont had a lot of character developement and didn't do much except die. Ditto Ser Rodrick. I don't think we can assume that GRRM has a "character X must do something worthwhile before dying" mentality.

Not *all* of the North worships the Old Gods.

But that portion of the North least effected by the war, such as the Liddles, Norleys, etc. (whom I internally equate to Highlander clans) do.

[BastardSword]

I don't think I agree Old Bear didn't do much--he handpicked "Lord Snow" to be his assistant, which led to others trusting him--Qorin, Donal Noye--which in turn led to his being chosen OB's successor as LC. He also gave Jon Longclaw.

Many of the characters who die do so in order to facilitate interesting character developments for other, more major characters. True, Ned was a biggie himself, but he HAD to go for the kids to be scattered. Oberyn was an interesting guy but HE had to go to jump start the Dorne plotline.

In trying to guess who's about overstayed their welcome, it's not just about their character but what possibilities are opened by their absence.

I don't see any possibilities opened up by bumping off Gendry or Edric, or for that matter Theon, at this juncture. The former two, if killed now, might as well never have been mentioned! And Theon could have been clearly stated to be DOA at the burning of Winterfell. (For all we know of course he might have been and Ramsay's playing some game trying to make people believe he's got Theon and is skinning him--absent DNA testing who knows whose piece of skin that was.) There's a payoff for killing Davos, but it's really not that big--who cares if Fatso Manderly gets his equally fat son back? On the other hand, Davos is the only one Stan listens to who isn't rat ass nuts, so take him away and Stan's more of a loose cannon. Brienne has so much more to do, her life being intertwined with Jaime's, of course she ain't dead.

And as long as Jaime's around, so will Cersei be, even if she ends up spending some time in a black cell (I think it'd be hilarious if Qyburn decided to use HER for one of his experiments!) Whatzat saying about what goes around comes around...

[VerySmallMonster]

I actually don't think Stannis is fit to rule. He lacks one of the key qualities in a ruler of a war torn kingdom: mercy. I believe it was Littlefinger in aGoT who told Ned that he would be a fool to support Stannis, because half the major noble houses would unite against him because they knew he wouldn't pardon them for the part they played in the war to overthrow Aerys Targaryen. That was half of the kingdom. Pretty much everyone opposed Stannis in the war of the 5 kings. No one will want him on the throne now.

I think his inability to govern in the wake of a conflict was proven in SoS when he seriously considered attacking a tiny island and killing all the smallfolk there because their lord had surrendered.

Besides, I don't think Stannis would seriously contend with Dany for the throne. I think if Dany shows up with her three dragons, who were born out of stone, in every way fitting Melisandre's prophecies, then Stannis will step aside. I don't think he actually wants the throne. He believes it is his by right, and he believes that Westeros needs him at the helm because of Mel's prophecies. Without that conviction, he won't fight for it.

Jorah Mormont had a lot of character developement and didn't do much except die.

Jorah's not dead. He's been exiled, again, but, correct me if I'm wrong, there's no evidence that he died.

[R'holler]

'Jorah Mormont had a lot of character developement and didn't do much except die. Ditto Ser Rodrick. I don't think we can assume that GRRM has a "character X must do something worthwhile before dying" mentality.'

Stevem, as Bastard Sword mentioned Jorah Mormont did affect the story. He developed Jon and then he had to die for Jon to become LC. I also think another reason for him dying is because his son will also play a role now that he has left Danny. Perhaps he will join the NW. His death was also important because it showed us that some of the people manning the wall at the time were not reliable and not up to the task. They broke easily after their first confrontation with the 'Others' after a thousand years losing all discipline. Jon has a hell of a job to deal with if this is the calibre of men he has available.

As for ser Rodrik he had to die after he tried to save Winterfell so that Robb would have no choice but to turn his attention North and let the events at the Red wedding occur, so that's how his death affected the story.

I am really curious about what has happened to Theon and how Jeyne Poole is faring in her marraige to Ramsay. I personally do not think that Stannis can rally the North around him for the same reasons mentioned before on this thread. Nor do I think he can control the wildlings should he make a deal with them.

I think the events in the North right now are much more interesting then KL, I just can't wait for the next book!

[Kelli Fury]

JORAH Mormont was Dany's knight, and is alive as far as we know- JEOR Mormont was Lord Commander of the Night's Watch before Jon.

[Grant Dempsey]

Let's assume they didn't and the Lannister and Freys executed the hostages. What then? Every Lannister and Frey prisoner would met the exact same fate as the war dragged out.

And what would happen if the northmen's battle ended unsuccessfully, and those Houses were beaten yet again and forced back into submission? What would happen to those hostages? What mercy would those Houses themselves receive, having recently rebelled not merely once, but twice now? More importantly, would the northmen be confident enough in their prediction as to what would happen to actually risk it? They have not only the Lannisters and the Freys' response with the hostages in general to worry about, but the success of the battle itself as well.

[cybroleach]

What mercy would those Houses themselves receive, having recently rebelled not merely once, but twice now? More importantly, would the northmen be confident enough in their prediction as to what would happen to actually risk it? They have not only the Lannisters and the Freys' response with the hostages in general to worry about, but the success of the battle itself as well.

Well actually they're not rebelling twice (excluding Manderly, Umber, and Ryswell if they were to re-rebel) as the rest have yet to bend the knee and the fact that their lords and heirs were not taken as prisoners to be ransomed back would probably enrage an honor bound society like the north to avenge them. So they'd be more open to Stannis than Roose and the IT.

Also Stannis does not forsake their gods he makes the Wildlings do it as a sign of their new alliegence to him. Many of his Knights still worship the seven "the King's Men" and he is tolerant of them.

[Grant Dempsey]

Well actually they're not rebelling twice (excluding Manderly, Umber, and Ryswell if they were to re-rebel) as the rest have yet to bend the knee and the fact that their lords and heirs were not taken as prisoners to be ransomed back would probably enrage an honor bound society like the north to avenge them. So they'd be more open to Stannis than Roose and the IT.

Haven't most of the (significant) northmen bent the knee and sworn themselves to the Boltons already? I thought that was why the Boltons felt confident in shifting their concentration onto ridding the ironborn.

Also Stannis does not forsake their gods he makes the Wildlings do it as a sign of their new alliegence to him. Many of his Knights still worship the seven "the King's Men" and he is tolerant of them.

By forcing the wildlings to convert to worship of the Lord of Light, Stannis Baratheon is just bringing R'hllor closer and closer to his own image. Even if he wouldn't actually force northmen to convert, the northmen themselves can't be certain about that and have reason to fear otherwise. Besides, he has still been allowing Melisandre to burn godswoods and he has still been the one to accept wildlings back into the realm, both of which represent grave insults against the beliefs and laws of the North. Let's not forget that, because of Catelyn Stark, northmen think he committed fratricide, too.

[Brandon Stark]

Not *all* of the North worships the Old Gods.

Aye, but I bet you'd be hard pressed to find any that were alright with living side-by-side with wildlings en masse.

[Mutethunder]

Let's not forget that, because of Catelyn Stark, northmen think he committed fratricide, too.

I don't rly think that information has spread that fast if it has spread at all. Shouldn't someone at winterfell receive this info? iirc ppl believe that it was Brienne who did the deed and Catelyn doesn't tell many ppl.

Atleast no one in the North know that and ppl didn't rly talk about it in aSoS, with the exception of Brienne and Jaime

[Grant Dempsey]

iirc ppl believe that it was Brienne who did the deed and Catelyn doesn't tell many ppl.

You forget that Brienne swore her sword to Catelyn Stark. I think they would have made it a point to clarify her innocence with their own people, especially considering how much pain being thought of as guilty of the crime brought to her.

By the way, in regard to Stannis Baratheon's likelihood of forcing northmen in his service to convert to worship of R'hllor, don't forget that he was going to force Jon Snow to do so if he accepted his offer of legitimization and agreed to become the Lord of Winterfell.

[Mutethunder]

You forget that Brienne swore her sword to Catelyn Stark. I think they would have made it a point to clarify her innocence with their own people, especially considering how much pain being thought of as guilty of the crime brought to her.

Well, Renly would have attacked the North if Robb didn't stop his King of the North thingie. What good would it do to clarify briennes image.

"No it wasn't it me.. it was a shadow sent by Stannis"

Would u rly buy that?

[Grant Dempsey]

Well, Renly would have attacked the North if Robb didn't stop his King of the North thingie. What good would it do to clarify briennes image.

Remember what happened to Jaime's reputation when he murdered Aerys? Regardless of anyone's feelings about Aerys himself, Jaime was widely distrusted and thought of as without honor. Clearing Brienne's name of the crime of killing Renly would be quite relevant, I think, because otherwise the riverlords and the northmen both would hate and distrust her, whether she swore her sword to Catelyn or not.

Even beyond that, Catelyn and Brienne would want to proclaim her innocence for no other reason than the amount of emotional agony it brought Brienne to be accused of killing Renly.

[Artanaro]

There's a payoff for killing Davos, but it's really not that big--who cares if Fatso Manderly gets his equally fat son back? On the other hand, Davos is the only one Stan listens to who isn't rat ass nuts, so take him away and Stan's more of a loose cannon. Brienne has so much more to do, her life being intertwined with Jaime's, of course she ain't dead.

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes that Davos is actually dead. Davos needed White Harbor to side with Stannis through any means necessary. The only way Lord Manderly would consider an alliance is if his son was returned. Faking Davos' death is risky, so it seems very possible the Onion Knight would volunteer by his own accord. From the perspective of the narrative this could accomplish two things.

1.) Lead to Stannis' implosion, because he lacks an opposing voice to keep Melisandre in check.

2.) Allow for another character to replace Davos' reasoned nature (Asha, Theon, or someone we don't know about yet).

I actually don't think Stannis is fit to rule. He lacks one of the key qualities in a ruler of a war torn kingdom: mercy. I believe it was Littlefinger in aGoT who told Ned that he would be a fool to support Stannis, because half the major noble houses would unite against him because they knew he wouldn't pardon them for the part they played in the war to overthrow Aerys Targaryen. That was half of the kingdom. Pretty much everyone opposed Stannis in the war of the 5 kings. No one will want him on the throne now.

I would take everything Littlefinger says with a grain of salt. Stannis can't void a past pardon. Littlefinger clearly wanted a party on the throne who was in his best interest. Stannis saw Littlefinger as the selfserving corrupt backstabber he is, so of course he's going to say anything to make Ned consider other options.

I consider mercy a good trait in a person, but more often than not it's a weakness in rulers. Ned's mercy to Cersei got himself killed. The "mercy" shown to Balon Greyjoy led to another rebellion. Unlike Cersei, Robert, and even Renly to a degree, Stannis appoints people based on merit. For a functional and peaceful realm, that's one of the best qualities in a leader.

And for the record, the reason Stannis lacked support in his War of the Five Kings was because he was Lord of Dragonstone. The armies broke along traditional lines. Renly had the support of the stormlords, because he was Lord of Storm's End. The Tyrells joined his cause out of personal self-interest, but they are the exception in the War of the Five Kings. The Westerlands composed most of Tywin's army, while Robb led northerners and riverlords who had been attacked by the Lannisters. In truth Stannis proved quite resourceful in raising men to fight for him. It was simple. Knock off Renly and he'll have the stormlords. His mistake though was forgetting how superstitious some knights and peasants can be (Renly's ghost at the battle of the Blackwater).

Artanaro

[Red Rex]

yeah, stannis is probably the best candidate until daenerys comes 'round.

Stannis is the best non-dragon possessing candidate, when dany returns or should a Blackfyre with dragons from Ashaai present themselves to westeros well...

[Red Rex]

That's what i can forsee to (or atleast hope for). All it's needs is a lil 'accident' for Queen Selyse then the two can intermarry with Stannis providing stern leadership and Dany compasion make the perfect monarchy.

And lets not forget that GRRM said the end wouldn't be all this hugs and kisses and happily ever after stuff.

If Dany takes two husbands can either/both/neither be called king? if R+L=J and Dany marries Jon AND Stannis?...