Mafia Game 79 - Game of Thrones Finale Party!

[House Wythers]

Deary, deary me... lots and lots of posts and things to look into and answer!

This may be a long post...

The Ros mob bothers me. Not just because I was leading the Dany mob :devil: . Jaime would need to have balls of brass (or gold) to try and pull off the fake accidental hammer as FM. That kind of chutzpah inconsistent with the way he has played the game so far. He is likely innocent.

I agree with this.

Varys' vote, were he an FM, would be a lot more artful. People like to hammer. Might have done it myself had I returned in time. We should give credit where credit is due. Varys pretty much sealed the deal on poor Ros.

After I had left I saw an omen in the Sky. A moon, red as blood, rising over the horizon. And then it was covered by a shadow and disappeared. That's how I knew Ros had died and that she was innocent.

I had to leave and I did. Though we all bear the brunt of our mistake, those who were going to be around at day's end could have removed their votes if they thought things were getting too hot and then cast them again closer to the end, yet I had not that leisure.

Honestly, Arya's just as likely to have been NK'd for being reasonable and relatively trusted as he is for anything he said, but a reread nonetheless:

Indeed, but you can't have it both ways. You put a lot of work in what is basically taking Arya's tiers and saying the people on the bottom are less suspicious and the people on the top more, yet FM can read tiers too...

Some strange stuff going on in Varys-land.

More than you might think!

But then something really strange happens. Varys does a complete reverse of his earlier position and says that he now disagrees with Tyrion's "Dany is imitating unJon case"

It was the kind of point that I may celebrate at the beginning of the first day, yet I didn't think it held any weight on Daenerys once she finished with her mind games (one of the reasons why I didn't suspect her) and was a slightly silly point to make on Tyrion. A slack bow-string will not shoot, but it will break if you pull it a nook too far.

I'm not sure exactly what was going on with Varys. If he's evil, then maybe he got scared off by the loud voices defending Dany, and decided to change his opinion on her.

A more careful re-read will easily show none of this to be true.

Cersei makes some good points on Varys. While his RP was entertaining yesterday, I for one had a great deal of trouble trying to figure out what he was actually thinking.

I have seen a few criticisms levelled against the manner of my speech, and will answer only thus: A game I play, and I seek my fun, as others might seek theirs. I try to be friendly, try to be vocal and try to let my thoughts fly happily like little birds. If you would not have it thus and would shun me from your company then that is the way it will be.

Too long this post might become, and I speak mainly of myself. Let me gather my thoughts and speak of other greater lords more interesting than this humble Spider.

[House Yronwood]

Ok, I've reread Syrio.

He starts with RP, then votes Ros for leaving her vote on Varis without an explanation.

Slightly suspicious of Cercei, slightly defends Drogo and Dany.

Disagrees with Arya clearing Sansa.

Questions Ros.

Questions Eddard.

Questions Baelish.

Want to lynch: Eddard, Jorah*, Baelish, Ros

Willing to lynch: Cersei, Jaime, Varys, Renly, Sansa, Tyrion

Vaguely willing to lynch but would prefer not to:Dany

Don't want to lynch: Arya, Drogo

*I agree with those who found his trust of Renly weird.

Questions Sansa.

Questions Jorah.

Qustions Renly.

Disagrees with lynching Dany.

Explains voting Ros:

Voting weirdness. It started with her post saying that she was going to keep her vote (which had been originally cast as a joke) on Varys, without stating any suspicions, because innocents shouldn't unvote out of fear of the berserker. When pushed on it she admitted that she didn't really have a reason to be voting Varys and removed her vote and said she might not vote today. When pressured on that she voted Renly for being a low poster.

On day 2, disagrees with PIing Sansa, agrees with Cersei's "some good points on Varis", votes Jorah, being unsatisfied with his explanation of trusting Renly.

I see a scheme here. He asks some qusetions to seven different players (counting Ros) and in five cases out seven never proceed discussion, regardless of answers. In two other cases, he insists on Renly answering and feels disppointment with Jorah answer... but doesn't keep pressuring.

He looks very interactive, with that many questions, but I think he actually isn't. And I wonder if he is really interested in answers. And both his votes are poorly justified, IMO.

Syrio Forel.

[House Wythers]

Tyrion Lannister: This guy reminds me of a friend of mine whom I’ve been playing on another forum for some time with, and the reason for this is him taking some word or a phrase of the opponents statement, putting there the sense that he wants it to contain and then using as an argument. And I don’t think that it’s a good way of leading the discussion. For this reason Tyrion Lannister will be my new vote.

So, Tyrion behaves like a friend of yours in another game on another forum (for didactical purposes, we might refer to him as ‘UnJon’), and, since UnJon was guilty in this instance, you conclude Tyrion is likely to be guilty too.

I would just like to use this opportunity to expand on what I was saying earlier. Saying a player is behaving in a confrontational way to draw attention away from themselves seems can be a good argument, but insisting he behaves like some other player in some other game is always pretty silly. This post by Jaime highlights the uselessness of it as nobody else playing could easily follow it, but at least it looks like Jaime’s friend was actually evil…

Knowing how Tyrion misinterpreted other player’s words for his own benefit might be useful.

There are two posts in response to Tyrion where he refers to "two knowledges" and "two-faced answer"

Many words, much nonsense, and do remember that as much knowledge as there may be there is only one, if you would avoid much mockery :P

Here he again praises Tyrion's case on Dany and characterizes it as one that a FM would be on if they wanted to glide thru Day 1. He also names Petyr in this as well.

The link you attach leads to a whole page rather than a single post, in any case 'characterizes it as one that a FM would be on if they wanted to glide thru Day 1' doesn't seem like a shining endorsement to me...

But in his next post he suddenly declares Tyrion's argument "silly"

Which might be a contradiction with what I said previously (though it wasn't) but is hardly a thing a servant who wanted to gain his master's ear would say.

The only prior mention being that their case on Dany was not misrepresenting her and they were playing laid back?

Finally he votes Ros. This is also the first indication he's given that he wouldn't be on at the end of day - with less than 1 hour to go.

You wish for many fore-warnings that I don't always have a leeway to give, when posts are piling on posts and the game is moving fast. It's read or write then, for even the cleverst maesters can't do both at a time! Some plans are carefully pre-meditated and some spring up unexpected.

This guarantees Ros' fate and leaves his boy Tyrion (and Petyr?) off the lynch train for Day 2 analysis.

Though a symp might have little qualms in sentencing poor Ros, my boy Tyrion was not in a position where I would have had to intervene to save him, if that were my role. An argument one could have made if I had been accused of serving the lady Daenerys *hides letter to Ilyrio under the table*

You seem to have taken my lady Cersei's post and crafted it into some completely ludicrous and unappealing accusation of Tyrion. Probably to appear original rather than mob-hugging.

I have still some matters to settle with you Lord Eddard Stark.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

12 players remain: Cersei Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, Eddard Stark, Jaime Lannister, Jorah Mormont, Khal Drogo, Lord Varys, Petyr Baelish, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

2 votes for Lord Varys (Cersei Lannister, Petyr Baelish)

2 votes for Tyrion Lannister (Eddard Stark, Khal Drogo)

1 vote for Eddard Stark (Lord Varys)

1 vote for Jaime Lannister (Jorah Mormont)

1 vote for Jorah Mormont (Syrio Forel)

1 vote for Syrio Forel (Tyrion Lannister)

4 players have not voted: Daenerys Targaryen, Jaime Lannister, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark.

[Magic Mirror]

I don't think anyone's suggesting that Dany's cleared. I do think Sansa has been PI'd though.

It'd take a very stupid FM to kill someone that could be a symp, especially in a game where there might be promotable symps.

Be careful with this assumption. It's entirely possible that Arya posted against someone else that might be Sansa's partner (ie: Eddard). I wouldn't make an assumption like this until we know Eddard's alignment.

ETA: I will be out most of the day with some access on my phone.

[Magic Mirror]

All of a sudden, Dany is in Tier 3 and he'd rather not lynch her. Just because of one post of contribution.

I'm not sure exactly what was going on with Varys. If he's evil, then maybe he got scared off by the loud voices defending Dany, and decided to change his opinion on her. Or maybe I'm wrong about Dany and they are FM partners, and he changed gears from distancing to trying to save his partner. Not sure.

But what I do know is that the shift in opinion from agreeing with Tyrion to then calling Tyrion's theory silly is very strange. And suspicious. Can you explain that, Varys?

It is strange but not sure it's suspicious. I somewhat buy his explanation since he did change his tune when I started contributing. I'm not sure, as a FM, what he'd gain by changing his mind like that.

Well, I read Varys and I found what may be potential symp clues to Tyrion.

There is this post saying that he knows small man may have a big secret. Standing alone it just fits in with his "RP"

There are two posts in response to Tyrion where he refers to "two knowledges" and "two-faced answer"

Here he praises Tyrion's case on Dany as the only convincing one.

Here he again praises Tyrion's case on Dany and characterizes it as one that a FM would be on if they wanted to glide thru Day 1. He also names Petyr in this as well.

But in his next post he suddenly declares Tyrion's argument "silly"

Curiously in his next post he puts Tyrion and Petyr together as Tier 2 suspicious below only me and Jorah. The only prior mention being that their case on Dany was not misrepresenting her and they were playing laid back?

Finally he votes Ros. This is also the first indication he's given that he wouldn't be on at the end of day - with less than 1 hour to go. At the time when Tyrion is first mentioned as a lynch candidate and before Jaime can begin discussion on the Imp. This guarantees Ros' fate and leaves his boy Tyrion (and Petyr?) off the lynch train for Day 2 analysis.

I'd rather vote master than symp: Tyrion Lannister

I'm going to ignore all symp theories at this stage in the game. I feel that 95% of them will just naturally occur and until we have an evil alignment confirmation, we'd be doing ourselves a disservice by voting people because of other people's actions. If you want to vote Tyrion, do it based on his actions, not the actions of someone who "might" be a symp.

[House Yronwood]

Daeneris:

Votes Eddard for having longest bandwagon, then Varis for same reason.

A lot of posts explaining and defending herself.

Closer to deadline, names me, Petyr and Jorah as main suspects, all for attacting herself. Votes Baelish. Trusts Jayme because of his question about FMs number.

Countinues defending.

Agrees with Varis' case on Eddard, would vote him.

Asks Eddard if he suspects somebody but Sansa.

Asks Khal why he don't want to lynch Jaime.

Votes Ros.

I completely don't understand why so many players refused to vote Daeneris at the end of the day. Yeah, initial cases on her might be weak, but for all the day she did nothing. 35 posts and onewith a contribution. And this contribution is OMGUS, whether she admits it or not. Extremely suspicious.

ETA: er, crossposted with two last Dany's posts. I don't think these make her looking much better, though. She dousn't want Sansa out of suspect pool and she doesn't want to lynch because of possible symp connection. It's... too general thoughts.

[Magic Mirror]

Petyr Baelish:

Why not vote for Sansa if you don't like what she is doing?

Daenerys

First real post of the game and it's a vote on me. I have no problems with this vote at this stage. It's what I wanted.

Not the stratagy I'd be endorsing while leading the vote count, but whatever, works for me.

This post was made in response to the fact that I changed my vote from Eddard to Varys because Eddard no longer had the most votes. To me, he seems fine with the fact that I changed my vote yet he's still voting for me because I voted Eddard while posting something negative about Sansa. It should be clear at this point that I was just jumping on bandwagons depending on who had the most votes yet he has kept his vote on me even after this post.

Don't have a great deal of time right now, but I am inclined to keep my vote right where it is. My reasons for diliking her have already been touched on. I didn't appreciate the lynch everyone and let The Seven sort 'em out approach she took, especially since she found issue with Sansa's vote removal. None of Dany's responses have felt all that genuine. Suffices to say Dany will do unless a better ooption presents itself. I will be back well before the lynch deadline.

His next post. This part I think is misrepresenting what I was doing. But that's my opinion.

However, the big thing about this is that on the last post, he seemed fine with my strategy and now he's keeping his vote on me for that strategy. And of course, my responses haven't felt genuine, which is something incredibly subjective. It feels like he flipped on his last post to keep his vote on me, which is the biggest train by about 3 votes at that point.

Excuse me, you misunderstood my lame comment. I do have a problem with voting for whoever has the most votes that early in the game when you find a different person's actions suspicious. I was simply pointing out that it wasn't a wise strategy to endorse while leading the vote count. I said "whatever, works for me" in a tongue in cheek way because she was leading the vote count and I intended to keep my vote on her. I should have been more clear. My vote was already on her and my vote wasn't on her because she had the most votes. Dany only had Jaime's vote when I placed my vote.

This was Petyr's explanation of the two posts as Syrio pointed it out on day 1. It could be as he says. Not sure.

Let me ask you this. What problem do you have with voting the largest train early in the game? Or is it not the fact that I voted for the largest train but that I pointed out one post that I didn't like of Sansa's? If that's the case, why would it better serve me to vote for her?

Tough to really gauge what he'd do at deadline because Jaime hammered. He didn't post for or against the Ros train. Actually, he didn't post for or against anyone except for the 2 posts against me.

Day 2 posts:

The Ros mob bothers me. Not just because I was leading the Dany mob :devil: . Jaime would need to have balls of brass (or gold) to try and pull off the fake accidental hammer as FM. That kind of chutzpah inconsistent with the way he has played the game so far. He is likely innocent.

Varys' vote, were he an FM, would be a lot more artful. People like to hammer. Might have done it myself had I returned in time. We should give credit where credit is due. Varys pretty much sealed the deal on poor Ros.

The Ros mob didn't bother you enough to comment yesterday. When you made your post to Syrio explaining the possible contradiction in your posts, Ros had 6 votes. You weren't a suspect at that point so you could have at least commented. Also, why does the Ros mob bother you? You say it does but give no reasons why you actually are bothered by it.

And lets be honest, you didn't lead the Dany mob. You made a vote and then reiterated that you'd keep your vote. You did nothing to push the Dany mob. Don't misrepresent your own actions.

I make it a point to agree with beautiful women wherever possible. The case you made on Varys was as compelling as any I've seen in this game so far.

Hmm. Ok. You agree with Cersei's case. You find it compelling. Why? What was so compelling about it?

Cersei post a LOT. Makes good points, but also a lot of quoting. Reading her is already a chore.

Dany has a ridiculous amount of posts too. A large chunk are self defense and responses to questions so I won't hold it against her. Something still feels off here, but I feel better about her than Varys.

Varys is inconsistent and confusing. Despite Ed's case regarding Varys symping Tyrion, I think guilty Varys is more plausible. Loved the RP, but I agree with Syrio that it was distracting. It went on far too long.

I like Renly so far. Concise. Makes solid points, but doesn't clog thread with dozens of mile long multiquotes. He makes sense to me.

Sansa needs to be less gun shy, but I like her.

Contrary to popular opinion, I liked Tyrion's comparison or Dany's early day 1 play to unJon's play last game. His comment made sense to me at that point because the thought had briefly crossed my mind too. Tyrion, your last post you said you'd have a lot of questions to ask a lot of players if Ros was innocent. We'd love to hear them.

edit - half completed sentence

Cersei makes good points but quotes a lot so she's a chore. Why post that? Does that make her suspicious?

You now feel better about me than Varys. Why? Because I make self defense posts? What about my early actions? Do you still find those suspicious?

What solid points has Renly made? The only points that I can remember is the fact that he thinks there are multiple people protecting Varys. Do you agree with those?

At this point, the only person you really find suspicious is Varys. You like me a lot better than you did yesterday and you find no one else suspicious. You like Renly's conspiracy theory against Varys and you like Cersei's points.

Conclusion

I'm not a huge fan of his play so far. On day 1, he immediately voted me after I voted Eddard which is what I expected some people to do. It's an easy target for FM at that point because it looks suspicious and others will agree. He came back on and stuck with the vote (when I was clearly top lynch train) then left. When he did come back and Ros was front and center, he didn't discuss the mob at all but after Jaime hammered, he had problems with the Ros mob without expressing why.

Now he's voting Varys based on Cersei's post yet not really explaining why he thinks Varys actions are suspicious or make sense as a FM. I don't mind latching onto other people's cases but as he has no other suspicions, it looks suspicious to me. We need a lot more information from him on who he suspects, why and I'd also like some answers to my questions above.

Petyr Baelish

[Magic Mirror]

ETA: er, crossposted with two last Dany's posts. I don't think these make her looking much better, though. She dousn't want Sansa out of suspect pool and she doesn't want to lynch because of possible symp connection. It's... too general thoughts.

No, it's intelligent thoughts. I don't want Sansa out of the suspect pool because when you start taking people out of the suspect pool based on wrong assumptions, then you end up losing the game. Remember last game? Mina was taken out of the suspect pool because no one could believe that she'd bus her partner which is exactly what she did. The innocents never thought that her bussing Harlot made sense if Silchas was also evil. So my point is that you can't clear Sansa because Arya didn't suspect her since Arya suspected Eddard. If they are partners, then it's clear Arya isn't Sansa's symp and therefore can die. It's pretty clear. Do not try to make that into some kind of suspicious act because it is not. It's smart play.

[House Wythers]

I did some re-reads on three people I find suspicious other than Eddard Stark, I’ll post them one by one:

First is my esteemed colleague in the King’s Small Council Lord Petyr Baelish,

Petyr seems almost constantly hard pressed for time, after engaging in some delightful banter with Eddard Stark about the later’s prepubescent daughter (laughed hard at this, I really did).

This post here is the first one to be more than a witty sentence or phrase:

Don't have a great deal of time right now' date=' but I am inclined to keep my vote right where it is. [u']My reasons for diliking her have already been touched on. I didn't appreciate the lynch everyone and let The Seven sort 'em out approach she took, especially since she found issue with Sansa's vote removal. None of Dany's responses have felt all that genuine. Suffices to say Dany will do unless a better ooption presents itself. I will be back well before the lynch deadline.

Yeah, it’s pretty weak, but day one makes for weak cases, so it can be excused. It does seem quite opportunistic too, though.

Though he warns he will be back way before the day ends, he barely makes it in time before the Lion Knight so cavalierly hammered Ros as if she were a Targaryen King. His only post is an uninteresting defence against an equally uninteresting point raised by Syrio Forel.

He then goes back to posting small quips and helpful pointers but very little content. His opinion on the Ros mob is this:

The Ros mob bothers me. Not just because I was leading the Dany mob . Jaime would need to have balls of brass (or gold) to try and pull off the fake accidental hammer as FM. That kind of chutzpah inconsistent with the way he has played the game so far. He is likely innocent.

Varys' vote' date=' were he an FM, would be a lot more artful. People like to hammer. Might have done it myself had I returned in time. We should give credit where credit is due. Varys pretty much sealed the deal on poor Ros.[/quote']

He basically looks at the last two votes, and decides it makes Jaime and me look more innocent. I’ll agree with the point of Jaime and let others decide upon my humble self.

Once done he quite shamelessly follows were my Lady Cersei leads. Befitting as it may be to follow the Queen Regent, his opinions seem like echoes bouncing off the walls of a cave, rather than his own voice. His opinion of me quickly changes for the worse, I fear.

Here he gives off quite a few opinions:

[House Yronwood]

No, it's intelligent thoughts.

Intelligent. But not specific for this particular game. Both thoughts are true for any game. And evils like saying things which are true for any game. It's safe.

[Magic Mirror]

He basically looks at the last two votes, and decides it makes Jaime and me look more innocent. I'll agree with the point of Jaime and let others decide upon my humble self.

Once done he quite shamelessly follows were my Lady Cersei leads. Befitting as it may be to follow the Queen Regent, his opinions seem like echoes bouncing off the walls of a cave, rather than his own voice. His opinion of me quickly changes for the worse, I fear.

That's a point I missed as I focused on a different part of that post. But it's fair enough. He more or less clears you for the way you voted then as soon as someone makes a case on you in day 2, he's quickly on it. It would have been less suspicious if he agreed with the case but pointed out your vote in order to make it look like he was giving it any thought. But he didn't.

[Magic Mirror]

Intelligent. But not specific for this particular game. Both thoughts are true for any game. And evils like saying things which are true for any game. It's safe.

Uh, it's not specific to this game? Seriously? I gave you a very specific example to this game. How much more specific would you like me to be?

Your over aggressiveness at this point in the game is suspicious and annoying.

[House Yronwood]

Uh, it's not specific to this game? Seriously? I gave you a very specific example to this game. How much more specific would you like me to be?

I suspect a language barrier here. When I said "specific", I meant unique. Individual. Non-universal.

Thought "we shouldn't PI players for wrong reasons" is universally true for each and every game, therefore safe to say.

[House Wythers]

I completely don't understand why so many players refused to vote Daeneris at the end of the day. Yeah, initial cases on her might be weak, but for all the day she did nothing. 35 posts and onewith a contribution. And this contribution is OMGUS, whether she admits it or not. Extremely suspicious.

Timing is definitely a part of it. Though day one lasted 30 hours much of its activity was concentrated on the final three, where Dany was actively participating. You've got to strike when the iron is hot, they say, and at the crucial time Daenerys was around to speak up for herself when Ros was occupied with different endeavours (surely of libidinous nature!).

Weak cases are the fare of the first day, yet sometimes they appear as viable in their weakness and sometimes as dishonest or suspicious. 'Tis a different fare, and one not as easy to pallate!

My Lady of Lannister had a stern view on Daenerys' accusers, and those who might have seen her as a safe cushion pin to stick their foils in now had to deal with a much more formidable foe. The craven do not enter the lion's den. As the dothrakhi say 'It is known'.

Symping could be a part of it, if you're inclined to such suspicions, but I currently think it unlikely. The likely symps I trust more than the accusers.

As for my own opinion, inconsistent as it may be in the eyes of some, by the end of the day I had rejected the 'walks like an UnJon' argument and there wasn't really much more going for the Daenerys case. Some of her accusers had also warmed to the arguments like beggars to a fire, and a Queen besieged by beggars is an ungainly sight.

[House Yronwood]

Timing is definitely a part of it. Though day one lasted 30 hours much of its activity was concentrated on the final three, where Dany was actively participating. You've got to strike when the iron is hot, they say, and at the crucial time Daenerys was around to speak up for herself when Ros was occupied with different endeavours (surely of libidinous nature!).

I suppose it was answer to first fraze of my quote?

Ok, but what do you think about my case?

[House Velaryon]

Personally, I'm still thinking the Dany, Varys, Sansa weirdness from yesterday wasn't answered to my satisfaction. But I am very much willing to accept that my entire idea is made of crackpot and stupid.

Tell me what you want specifically answered, please.

[House Wythers]

Ok, but what do you think about my case?

I mostly agree with it. Syrio and Jorah are two players whose style is similar to Petyr Baelish's. They are content with being the support cast in our little charade rather than taking the centre stage. A busy life might be a part of it, but it's definitely suspicious.

Your case, as it is, could do with more fleshing out, though. It suffers from a slight vagueness and hungers for some quotes. A suspicious style of play is weak evidence, too.

I think the strongest part of it is how disinvested he seems to be in his own posts and opinions. That is definitely a tell.

Syrio, Jorah and yourself, and to a lesser extent Renly and Drogo, are players I want to have a better look at. Time permitting, I will. May-hap my opinion of them will be better formed then.

[House Yronwood]

I mostly agree with it. Syrio and Jorah are two players whose style is similar to Petyr Baelish's. They are content with being the support cast in our little charade rather than taking the centre stage. A busy life might be a part of it, but it's definitely suspicious.

Er, thanks, but I actually asked about my case on Dany, not on Syrio. Ok, probably not case but resume...

[Magic Mirror]

Tyrion:

At first glance, I agree with your case on Syrio (it was my thoughts as well from what I can remember of his posts). Can't tell for sure until I get a chance to go back and look since you don't post quotes.