[ADwD Spoilers] The Varys-Illyrio Conspiracy

[longlivestark]

No, you've got four groups that are not going to support each other and are each indidually quite easily dealt with by Westerosi forces. Also, maybe killing them isn't even necessary. The Free Cities have gotten into the habit of buying them off, after all. Just give them half the gold of Casterly Rock and send them back across the Narrow Sea so they can return to Vaes Dothrak.;)

Provided they don't freeze to death first, Northern Winter+Shirtless men= alot of men frozen to horses.

[Brewmaster]

•Four to five years after the end of Robert's Rebellion, Varys makes plans with Jon Connington to have him leave the Golden Company and spread rumors about his death. Illyrio and Myles Toyne are also involved in the plot. Perhaps at this time Connington met the supposed Aegon? (Source: Connington thinks it has been twelve years since his time in the company, and recalls faking his death with Varys' help.)

•This supposed Aegon is raised by fishers, given lordly instruction by Connington, lessons from the Halfmaester, spiritual instruction by Lemore, and martial prowess from Duck. (Source: All over DwD)

By the way, these 2 points would lend some evidence to Young Griff being the right age to be Aegon, if not lend evidence to him being Aegon himself. There has been talk that Tyrion saying he looks 15, when he should be 17, is a big clue that he is not in fact Aegon. While you could play off a 15 year old as 17, you aren't going to play off a 2 year old as 4. Connington gets roped into this conspiracy when Y.Griff/Aegon should be 4 or 5 and he doesn't doubt him as being Aegon.

This doesn't mean that Young Griff is necessarily Aegon, but I think the "looks 15" thing is a red herring and he is the right age.

[KhalRhaego]

Great. You people have shaken up my carefully constructed Westros ideas and convinced me that dragon eggs are practically worthless. Now I can't get the idea out of my head of Illyrio and a medieval version of one of those Monex Gold Investor Kits except with Dragon Eggs being the "new" gold. (Is it a coincidence that gold coins are called Dragons? I think not.) I can totally see Illyrio ordering Dragon Eggs at the "strict limit of 10 per caller" then getting stuck with them and having to pawn them off as wedding gifts.

Thanks a lot.

[Ivy Snow]

Shae was obviously some highborn lord's daughter that Varys used to manipulate Tyrion.

I thought she was just some random girl who will mary some random knight... didn't get the feel that she's a highborn.

[Hielo y Fuego]

•At some later point, Viserys and Dany hook up with Illyrio. They stay for "half a year" before the marriage is arranged and Drogo comes to Pentos. However, Illyrio mentions "years of planning" when speaking of how he prevented Viserys from having sex with Dany, so possibly the Dothraki alliance was in the works even longer. (Source: GoT, and Illyrio's talk with Tyrion in DwD. Probably true, though the "years of planning" might be an exaggeration.)

Not necessarily. When Illyrio mentions "years of planning" could be in reference to the whole plot and Viserys deflowering Dany could be just one thing that could hinder, if not outright ruin, the whole thing.

•Illyrio assumes Dany will die on the Dothraki Sea. He attempts to convince Viserys to remain in Pentos, but relents when Viserys gives up some crap about waking the dragon. This seems to indicate that Illyrio cares nothing for Dany, at least. (Source: GoT and Illyrio's talk in DwD. This is up for debate - Illyrio could be lying to Tyrion.)

Or that Illyrio was testing Dany's strength and resolve (as a daughter of the dragons) but given the girl's seemingly weak and timorous nature, he didn't believe she would pass the trial. As for Viserys, given his personality and demeanor, Illyrio may have suspected that he would last even less than Dany. Which he did, of course.

•Varys is still playing the game of thrones in Westeros. He tells Eddard that the queen is plotting to kill Robert, and drops a lot of hints that the Lannisters are up to no good.

IMO, this has to do with Varys testing Ned to see if he would be willing to help eventually. Perhaps as Hand of Dany/Aegon or a similar close adviser. I believe Varys tried applying the same strategy with the two Hands who preceded Tywin. He failed with Ned but seems to have succeeded with Tyrion.

•Illyrio and Varys meet in King's Landing. Illyrio asks Varys for more time, because Dany is pregnant and the Dothraki aren't ready to move. Varys admits that he can't stall off war forever. The conversation seems to indicate that Varys has planned for war to sweep across Westeros, but not so soon. (Illyrio: "What good is war NOW? We are not ready. Delay.") We learn that Illyrio has been supplying Varys with gold and his "birds." The conversation also shows that Varys and Illyrio are really fast friends (as opposed to just political allies); Illyrio refers to Varys as "old friend". (Source: Arya overhears this in GoT, without realizing what's going on. With no reason to suspect anyone is listening, Varys and Illyrio are almost certainly being truthful with one another)

Unless they're lying to one another because they both have the same means but different ends ;)

•When Robert is dying, Varys comes up to Eddard and Barristan and drops big hints that it was Lancel and the Lannisters who were responsible for the hunting accident. It seems here he is still trying to create a division between the Starks and the Lannisters.

•Varys visits Eddard in disguise, and urges him to confess and take the black. This is the first we hear about Varys "serving the realm." Perhaps Varys hopes that this will stall off war if Eddard is not executed.

•Varys suggests Barristan take the blame for Robert's death and be removed from the Kingsguard. (Source: Cersei tells Tyrion at the beginning of CoK. Most likely true. Some theorized that Varys wanted Barristan to join Dany, but Barristan's story in DwD indicates that he didn't immediately take off for Essos after his dismissal. Perhaps Varys just wanted competent advisors removed from King's Landing?).

All of the above falls in line with my assumption that Varys might have been probing some of Westeros' best to see who could join Dany/Aegon's cause and be more helpful.

His strategy seems to have worked concerning Ser Barristan. As for Ned, he was too proud in his honor, so Varys decided to drop it and find himself another good prospect. Had Ned proven to be more open, I'm sure Varys would've found a way to ship Lord Eddard to Illyrio, as opposed to the Wall, just as he did with Tyrion later on.

•Varys manages to arrange for Gendry to escape King's Landing. He also is probably involved in telling Yoren to be there when Eddard chooses to take the black. (Gendry and Yoren's talk to Arya in CoK. Also, Varys tells Tyrion that he arranged for one of Robert's bastards to escape. Most likely he is telling the truth here, but its unclear what Varys gains from protecting Gendry).

Damning proof against the Lannister twins, most likely. Gotta cover all your bases in a conspiracy of this size and, should everything else fail, you can always look to your last resort.

•Throughout Clas, Varys works with Tyrion and seems to develop a healthy respect for his political skills. It's difficult to ascertain his motives in this book, however. Mostly Tyrion uses Varys to keep Shae hidden.

Well, this goes back to my "Varys wants to recruit Ned" theory. The better acquainted he is with the dwarf, the more he sees a potential ally for his kid Targ rebels as a valuable adviser. Moreover, unlike Ned, Tyrion's more than willing to overlook honor and duty in exchange for saving his hide and gain something more in the process, thus becoming an even better option than Lord Eddard.

•Varys tells the small council of the rumor of a "three-headed dragon" in Qarth, deftly dropped in between other rumors. Tywin dismisses this out of hand.

Just like everyone in KL dismisses word of the Others coming from the north, as well. In this case, while Varys must know that this is true, he knows that the skepticism that has taken hold of the realm in recent times will take care of these tidings, but he does have to mention it, lest he wants people to suspect he's keeping things from them. It's his job after all.

•Varys turns against Tyrion after he is accused of Joffrey's murder, presumably to save his own skin.

That and also to appear as if he's still loyal to the realm, of course. Just like he tried to do with Ned, he will use the dwarf's time in the dungeons to look for a way to free and use him for his own purposes.

•Knowing he will be blamed for releasing Jaime, Varys goes into hiding. He leaves an old coin from the Reach in the room of his alter-ego Rugen, which serves to raise Cersei's suspicions about the Tyrells. Speculation: Varys is still trying to keep the realm at war even when he can't directly pull strings.

Not entirely sure that Varys and Rugen are the same person. But the latter could very well be working for the former. As for not being able to pull strings directly, I think the way he got rid of both, Pycelle and Kevan, proves he can still pretty much do as he pleases around the Red Keep.

•Qyburn tells Cersei that most of Varys' informers are now under his employ. It's unclear if this is true, or if Varys is still pulling strings and revealing to Qyburn what he wants to reveal.

Agreed. I think Varys' "little birds" are still working for the Spider and just feeding a few bits and pieces to Qyburn here or there.

•Tyrion arrives at Illyrio's. Illyrio sends him off with Griff and Young Griff, but does not tell him about Young Griff's true identity. Their plans for Tyrion are unclear; Connington burns the note Illyrio sends to him about Tyrion, and doesn't think of it again. Connington does seem annoyed that Illyrio has involved more people in the plot.

I'd think their plans for Tyrion are somewhat clear. His value's neither in his looks nor his fighting skills, that's for sure. They want him for his sharp wits, just like they wanted Barristan for his ample experience in combat and war.

•Varys sees Kevan doing a pretty good job of bringing the realm back together. He kills Kevan and Pycelle with the intention of causing dissent between Lannisters, Tyrells, and Martells. (Source: DwD. Some debate about whether or not Varys is telling the truth to Kevan, but it seems clear that, at the very least, he wants to spread chaos and prevent competent people from being in charge).

As many have pointed out already, I can't see the validity of this debate on whether Aegon is real or false, since Varys would have no reason to lie to a dying man. None whatsoever. Hence, Aegon must be legit.

Now, what do Varys and Illyrio want? Seems somewhat simple: power along with everything that comes with it, the thrill of playing the game (and winning, as they must assume they've been doing for a while), of putting whomever they want on the throne and all the rewards they will get in exchange for this.

Yes, Illyrio's wealthy beyond measure and Varys was already one of the most powerful characters in the 7K's but some people's greed knows no bounds so...

[Jon AS]

As many have pointed out already, I can't see the validity of this debate on whether Aegon is real or false, since Varys would have no reason to lie to a dying man. None whatsoever. Hence, Aegon must be legit.

This again? Varys has plenty of reasons to lie. For example he's not alone with Kevan, he is determined to never refer to "Aegon" as anything other than the legitimate heir (helps to prevent slipping up) and of course force of habit. Varys lies all the time.

[Hielo y Fuego]

This again? Varys has plenty of reasons to lie. For example he's not alone with Kevan, he is determined to never refer to "Aegon" as anything other than the legitimate heir (helps to prevent slipping up) and of course force of habit. Varys lies all the time.

Varys wasn't alone with Kevan?

Well, I don't have the book w/me right now, but other than Pycelle's fresh corpse, I don't remember anyone else in the room. So, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate on who else was there with the Spider and Ser Kevan.

Varys "lies all the time out of force of habit"?

Again, I don't recall any evidence in the actual books to support this, so I'd also appreciate if you could elaborate with factual proof from the actual text.

[The Greatmatt]

This again? Varys has plenty of reasons to lie. For example he's not alone with Kevan, he is determined to never refer to "Aegon" as anything other than the legitimate heir (helps to prevent slipping up) and of course force of habit. Varys lies all the time.

Completely understand the skepticism, and I won't be shocked if Varys was lying.

With that said, to me it seems totally plausible he was telling the truth, and his story is far more interesting if he is telling the truth. I'm sure GRRM is quite well aware of how fascinating a character he's building with Varys, and I'd be pretty surprised if this type of character development proves to be total bunk.

[KhalRhaego]

Varys wasn't alone with Kevan?

Well, I don't have the book w/me right now, but other than Pycelle's fresh corpse, I don't remember anyone else in the room. So, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate on who else was there with the Spider and Ser Kevan.

Varys "lies all the time out of force of habit"?

Again, I don't recall any evidence in the actual books to support this, so I'd also appreciate if you could elaborate with factual proof from the actual text.

Varys and Kevan weren't alone. There was that crowd of creepy children with daggers that Varys brought along. It's the last page or two of the epilogue so just flip to the back of the book.

I don't know if I'd actually say that Varys lies all the time, but he's definitely selective with whom and when he shares the truth, so I think questioning his truthfulness isn't completely out of the line. I don't know that I believe him. Or that I don't believe him. All I know is that if Ned Stark can lie, so can Varys. Even if it is to a dead man.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Keeping the realm in constant war for 3 years and then following that with 10 years of brutal winter is not a viable strategy if you care at all about the people of the realm. As you said yourself Varys' strategy is long term. Aegon / Dany can wait a couple more years. If the lannister/Tyrell alliance is really so fragile, surely it will explode again sometime during the winter and then the Targs can make their move(s).

Heavy horse troops don't seem to do well in Winter (see: Stannis), and the seas are getting rougher all the time. I think Aegon et al. got to Westeros just in time.

I think it might have been safer for Dany, Viserys, and YG/Aegon to keep them apart, like independent revolutionary cells. It was probably also safer to make Dany and Viserys, who were being watched, appear powerless. Robert wanted them dead: it seems to me that if they were set up in some fancy establishment, with Targ loyalists and armies all around, he would have tried a lot harder. I can also see the mad Viserys being a threat to Aegon.

I think the three kids as V&I's plans A, B and C, with Aegon being Plan A. And I'm not sure that Aegon doesn't have an egg – we don't know the entire contents of the trunks Illyrio delivered to Griff yet. (Er, do we?)

As for V&I's motives -- I'd bet on those two strong motivators: revenge and greed, the revenge being Varys, but for what I don't know.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Varys and Kevan weren't alone. There was that crowd of creepy children with daggers that Varys brought along. It's the last page or two of the epilogue so just flip to the back of the book.

I don't know if I'd actually say that Varys lies all the time, but he's definitely selective with whom and when he shares the truth, so I think questioning his truthfulness isn't completely out of the line. I don't know that I believe him. Or that I don't believe him. All I know is that if Ned Stark can lie, so can Varys. Even if it is to a dead man.

That's right, Varys' children were there. Thanks for the reminder.

I just fail to see how that would influence his words to Kevan one way or the other, taking into consideration that the kids are his creatures, after all. So that still fails to provide any conclusive evidence, one way or the other, IMO. Also, I never said Varys hasn't ever told a lie. I was only asking for factual evidence to support Jon AS posting that Varys "lies all the time out of force of habit".

But my point is that I personally believe Aegon to be the real thing because I don't think Varys and Illyrio would go through all the trouble of preparing a "mummer's dragon" just to put him on the Iron Throne, when it could be all for naught if/should this fake Aegon be discovered.

I could be wrong, of course and it would certainly not be a first, but I just don't see Varys and Illyrio playing this kind of bluff on such a high stakes game. Makes no sense, especially after all they seem to have accomplished thus far.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

That's right, Varys' children were there. Thanks for the reminder.

I just fail to see how that would influence his words to Kevan one way or the other, taking into consideration that the kids are his creatures, after all. So that still fails to provide any conclusive evidence, one way or the other, IMO. Also, I never said Varys hasn't ever told a lie. I was only asking for factual evidence to support Jon AS posting that Varys "lies all the time out of force of habit".

But my point is that I personally believe Aegon to be the real thing because I don't think Varys and Illyrio would go through all the trouble of preparing a "mummer's dragon" just to put him on the Iron Throne, when it could be all for naught if/should this fake Aegon be discovered.

I could be wrong, of course and it would certainly not be a first, but I just don't see Varys and Illyrio playing this kind of bluff on such a high stakes game. Makes no sense, especially after all they seem to have accomplished thus far.

You say "why would Varys lie to a dead man" but my question is "why would he bother telling Kevan the truth?" He's created a narrative that includes Aegon as being the true heir to Westeros. Why take the time to explain to Kevan as he is dying that Aegon's not the real heir? That would take a lot more time!

The only reason he says anything to Kevan is because Kevan wants a good reason why he has to die. That reason is because Aegon must become king. So thats' what Varys says.

Aegon might be real or he might be fake. I say 90% chance he's fake. In either case Varys is going to say exactly what he said to Kevan in that room.

[Hielo y Fuego]

You say "why would Varys lie to a dead man" but my question is "why would he bother telling Kevan the truth?"

Well, perhaps because he spends so much time lying that being able to tell the truth for a change felt good?

Telling Kevan that it's all a scam wouldn't take long: "Hey Ser Kev, guess what? There is NO Aegon! My pal and I made him up and we plan to put his ass right on that chair made out of swords that your little grandnephew's sitting on right this minute!"...something along those lines ;)

So, you're saying that Varys is telling Kevan that he died for a good reason...now, why would Varys care about how Ser Kevan Lannister dies? IMO, he'd take more satisfaction by telling him the truth, knowing that Kevan can't do anything to prevent it anymore.

Aegon may be real, may be a fake, agreed. And I say 99.99& chance he's real lol! Guess we'll just have to wait and see as soon as WoW is released.

And yes, either way, that doesn't change Varys' farewell speech to Ser Kevan. True that.

[KhalRhaego]

Well, perhaps because he spends so much time lying that being able to tell the truth for a change felt good?

Telling Kevan that it's all a scam wouldn't take long: "Hey Ser Kev, guess what? There is NO Aegon! My pal and I made him up and we plan to put his ass right on that chair made out of swords that your little grandnephew's sitting on right this minute!"...something along those lines ;)

So, you're saying that Varys is telling Kevan that he died for a good reason...now, why would Varys care about how Ser Kevan Lannister dies? IMO, he'd take more satisfaction by telling him the truth, knowing that Kevan can't do anything to prevent it anymore.

Aegon may be real, may be a fake, agreed. And I say 99.99& chance he's real lol! Guess we'll just have to wait and see as soon as WoW is released.

And yes, either way, that doesn't change Varys' farewell speech to Ser Kevan. True that.

I agree that Varys's confession certainly FEELS true, but since he's also a mummer maybe Kevan is the test audience for his "Aegon's alive" performance. If he get's bad reviews on his performance Kevan isn't going to live to tell about it. I also think there's something to be said for believing the lie you are telling. There's already evidence for this in the Theon/Reek and Sansa/Alayna storylines and we aren't even in Varys's POV so we don't know what's in his brain as the words are coming out of his mouth. That being said I kinda think that Aegon is real, but he's going to be stupid and die right away anyway.

[Hielo y Fuego]

I agree that Varys's confession certainly FEELS true, but since he's also a mummer maybe Kevan is the test audience for his "Aegon's alive" performance. If he get's bad reviews on his performance Kevan isn't going to live to tell about it. I also think there's something to be said for believing the lie you are telling. There's already evidence for this in the Theon/Reek and Sansa/Alayna storylines and we aren't even in Varys's POV so we don't know what's in his brain as the words are coming out of his mouth. That being said I kinda think that Aegon is real, but he's going to be stupid and die right away anyway.

LOL...yeah, Aegon may just be Quentyn 2.0. Agreed!

As for Varys lying, even if he was lying to Kevan, I guess we should keep in mind how GRRM loves to insist that, "the best way to cook a lie is to spice it up with some chunks of truth" or something along those lines. So, some of his words to Kevan must be true, just like Bolton's Bastard's letter to Jon had some truth to it.

[KhalRhaego]

I'd like to propose a new theory that Varys, Illyrio and Littlefinger are the three heads of the dragon. They seem to be in charge of everything and the rest of the people are just chess pieces on the board anyway. For those of you who are keeping up, that would make Varys and Illyrio secret Targaryens. Just for kicks I'm gonna go ahead and say that they are Aegon's sons. We're gonna hafta rock-paper-scissors it out to see which one gets to be Duncan the Small and which one gets to be the one whose name no one remembers.

:laugh:

[Fishy]

Let Kevan, Margarey and Tommen have this last year of autumn in peace so that the realm can prepare for winter in terms of having food so the people don't just all starve. Then when winter is in full swing, that's when Varys should advise Aegon to strike.

Keeping the realm in constant war for 3 years and then following that with 10 years of brutal winter is not a viable strategy if you care at all about the people of the realm. As you said yourself Varys' strategy is long term. Aegon / Dany can wait a couple more years. If the lannister/Tyrell alliance is really so fragile, surely it will explode again sometime during the winter and then the Targs can make their move(s).

With the original planned five year gap this is very likely what would have happened. Without those five years however things moved faster. Winter came very fast after Autumn... Still I guess you have a point here, the thing is Aegon had already landed and Varys had no responsibility there, nothing he could to do prevent it. The only way he could let there be peace now was to let Aegon die... And he wants Aegon on the throne, not everything is under his control he needs to adapt.

Well, it's because the dragon eggs are crucial to the plot of the entire series. We have never heard of any others existing in the present-day world and we have no idea how Illyrio got them or why he gave them to Dany. They are not just valuable stones, each one can buy an army -- why hand them over to Dany when you can sell them and supplement Dany's Dothraki screamers with three additional armies?

If you are right, Dany's whole arc hinges on an incredible stroke of good luck that's really kinda lame writing. But it's true that Illyrio wanting Dany to hatch the eggs doesn't really make sense either, because why wouldn't he tell her?

The idea for Dany was to marry Drogo, which would eventually give Viserys an army of Dothraki which would in turn eventually meet up with Aegon and they would all together happily travel over the narrow sea to conquer Westeros.

Duly noted. But they are still very rare, which still begs the question why Ilyrio would give Dany three eggs as a present instead of just one. It's not like they're steak knives where he'd look cheap not giving her the entire set. At the very least either he believed in the "Dragon has three heads" prophecy so three eggs was at least symbolic (even if, for arguments sake, he didn't believe they'd hatch) or he gave away an extremely expensive unneccesary present to someone who he thought was going to die anyway.

If he thought it was symbolic, and we now know that he knew about Prince Aegon's existance, why didn't isn't didn't he save one of the eggs just as some sort of symbolic guesture for him as well?

The dragon eggs were worthless. The Dothraki weren't. They needed an army. Giving Aegon a dragon egg could achieve a couple of things.

1. A Dragon egg in his possesion before he claimed his kingdom, making it just a terrible risk for him because people are going to try and steal something that valuable.

2. Giving the Dragon egg once he was King would be a nice thought. Certainly, but why? What's the best that can happen. He sits on the egg and does nothing with it like Dany or two he tries to hatch it hoping for Dragons like so many Targs before him doing god knows what in the process.

Illyrio would have given Dany a great gift with 1 dragon egg, but 3 is far better then 1 or even 4 because of the symbolism involved. The dragon has three heads, three dragons on the Targaryan banner etc. etc.

He bought an army that was unwilling to cross the poison water. Given that, it's hard to convince me that they'd be more valuable than sellswords. Even Ned at one point said something about not being worried about the Dothraki crossing the sea and he's one of our most reliable POVs. Also, it's not like Illyrio had any idea that Drogo would end up loving Dany, so it's not like he could've assumed that they's automatically be more loyal to Dany and especially to Viserys. She was an outsider. They might have loved their fighting, but they could've just as easily gone to Westros, raped and looted, and done nothing constructive to get Viserys or Dany on the throne. Khal Drogo was their king and the Dothraki never showed any respect for Viserys, and I don't see that magically changing on the other side of the water.

They made a deal. Dany for an army of Dothraki to conquer Westeros. Drogo couldn't just stop doing that. He promised and he had to do it.

[Jon AS]

I was only asking for factual evidence to support Jon AS posting that Varys "lies all the time out of force of habit".

Should I have said that Varys is very careful about how and when he dispenses information? I'm not in the mood to go over his statements through the books to filter out some lies, but surely his habit of telling people what he wants them to know for his own benefit is easy enough to see?

But my point is that I personally believe Aegon to be the real thing because I don't think Varys and Illyrio would go through all the trouble of preparing a "mummer's dragon" just to put him on the Iron Throne, when it could be all for naught if/should this fake Aegon be discovered.

If there are only two people in the world who know that "Aegon" is fake, it's highly unlikely to be discovered. Particularly if the two people take care to never, ever refer to him as anything but the rightful heir, especially when in the company of anyone who is not in on the secret.

[Markus]

I don't have the book on hand just now, but I believe they were described earlier as being worth an army. The scene where Viserys tries to take them and Jorah stops him did come from the book, and it was after that when Jorah told Dany that Viserys could buy an army with them.

You're right. In Vaes Dothrak Jorah informs Dany that Viserys "has some thought to recruit men for his army from the sellswords who guard the caravans" and later that: " ... and dragon's eggs are rarer by far. Those traders he's been drinking with would sell their own manhoods for even one of those stones, and with all three Viserys could buy as many sellswords as he might need."

It's not entirely clear what Jorah means by "might need" though. Enough to conquer Westeros with their numbers alone or enough to start a campaign which would have a chance to quickly attract the Westerosi loyalists he would need to win the throne? I can hardly believe the first one because a conquerer without dragons would probably have needed more than fifty thousand sellswords to have even a chance to conquer Westeros when it was still united under Robert.

Personally, I think Jorah was overstating their worth.

Jorah's later assessment of their worth, 1 egg = 1 ship, seems a bit more reliable than his earlier one because it's more specific and even there he had reason to exaggerate their worth because he wanted to dissuade Dany from destroying them.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Should I have said that Varys is very careful about how and when he dispenses information? I'm not in the mood to go over his statements through the books to filter out some lies, but surely his habit of telling people what he wants them to know for his own benefit is easy enough to see?

Ah that's very different to saying that Varys "lies out of force of habit". From my perspective, the character's words just have to be properly interpreted in "Varys-talk" and IMO, that certainly will never mean he's always lying.

That said, one would think killing someone who poses a threat to his plans (Kevan Lannister) is good enough for his own benefit. No need to lie there, I would think.

If there are only two people in the world who know that "Aegon" is fake, it's highly unlikely to be discovered. Particularly if the two people take care to never, ever refer to him as anything but the rightful heir, particularly when in the company of anyone who is not in on the secret.

One whistle-blower is all that would be needed to bring some very complex years of planning crashing down in the blink of an eye. Too risky to have a fake put in place. Specially with the stakes so high in the game Illyrio and Varys have been playing for well over a decade.

So, until I read that Aegon is indeed a phony, I will keep on insisting with "that again" lol. Then again, that's my perspective of Young Griff. Not trying to impose my views or anything.