If the Greyjoys do attack Oldtown.......?

[Batman]

They are by far the most powerful vassal house in Westeros and can raise three times as many swords as any other vassal in the Reach. So at the minimum that would be 12,000 men that they could raise to defend themselves. They could augment this number with lowborn males from the gutters of Oldtown, considering the city is roughly 450,000 strong. They are not the ideal defenders but in times of war they will have to deal with it.

The gold of house Hightower is supposedly second only to the Lannisters. They are building warships to deal with the Greyjoys at the moment and the ships that are already at port can be used. If Wyman Manderly can make 50 warships the Hightowers may be able to raise 50-100 depending on the time they have before the Greyjoys attack. One of the Hightowers are off to Lys to hire sellsails. Since Sallador Saan had 23 ships that is a reasonable speculation number of how many they could bring to Oldtown. Of course if their "whore sister" helps out this number could be higher and of better quality (most sellsails arent as good as Sallador Saan).

So we have a rough breakdown at

Hightower

12,000-18,000 men

50-100 warships

unsure number of merchant vessals

23-50 sellsails

Greyjoy

20,000-30,000 men

1,000 ships (mostly longships)

If Oldtowns walls are strong I would say that the Hightowers would prevail. They stand no chance against them at sea until Paxter Redwynes fleet gets there but the Greyjoys cannot get inside the cities walls if the Hightowers are well prepared. Their port will be destroyed and traders will dry up, the cities economy will be screwed and in turn Westeros.

[Darth Rivers]

The Hightowers in theory can likely field more men than the entire Ironborn kingdom. But we don't know how militarized the region is - most troops are not conscripted serfs but professional retainers.

My guess is that they have a very large retinue, though, and they have quite a few powerful vassals who have retinued too. The Hightowers themselves probably have the levy array of Oldtown well equipped and trained as well.

@Batman Do you even know what men-at-arms are?

[Batman]

@Batman Do you even know what men-at-arms are?

n. pl. men-at-arms (mn-)

A soldier, especially a medieval cavalryman supplied with heavy arms.

[Darth Rivers]

n. pl. men-at-arms (mn-)

A soldier, especially a medieval cavalryman supplied with heavy arms.

So you do know that not every soldier is a man-at-arms? In medieval literature, the term was only applied to knights and 'squires' - soldiers wealthy enough to be eligible for knighthood. Being a man-at-arms entails the ability to fight both on foot and on horseback, and owning some sort of full armor harness (not necessarily full plate) along with a sword and other weapons.

[Arkash]

It must already have been said a lot in the thread (only read the first and last page), but dont forget who Euron Greyjoy is...

For me, he's the most dangerous man in Westeros actually... he has sailed the seas and oceans, he has seen wonders, he has magical forces, he is cunning, smart, intelligent... I would really be pissed off if all of this turned into dust... I really want the Crow's Eye to do something !

[Batman]

So you do know that not every soldier is a man-at-arms? In medieval literature, the term was only applied to knights and 'squires' - soldiers wealthy enough to be eligible for knighthood. Being a man-at-arms entails the ability to fight both on foot and on horseback, and owning some sort of full armor harness (not necessarily full plate) along with a sword and other weapons.

I know that this was pretentious and pointless. But if this bothers you so much I will edit it to say "men".

[History of Westeros]

No chance Euron tries a standard siege of Oldtown. He might try something sneaky (though everyone is likely to be on guard after the Shields were lost) or make a feint at it, but investing it would be absurd for many reasons. This would be so even if not for the fact that the Ironborn hate sieges. It's completely out of the question.

[History of Westeros]

I'd say 1,000 ships is way too high an estimate. Even at 15k fighting men (I realize the rowers don't fight) that's only 15 per ship.

The smallest Viking warships, for perspective, had 40+ crew each.

Considering the Iron Fleet is far away and that they are holding the Shields, it would be hard for them to have 1k uncommitted ships.

(null)

[Darth Rivers]

I know that this was pretentious and pointless. But if this bothers you so much I will edit it to say "men".

It's not pretentious and pointless, since GRRM himself uses the term in this definition (description of Tywin's army as Tyrion arrives/the battle of the Green Fork).

[Artos Stark]

I don't think the Greyjoys would have any chance against the Hightowers on land. They wouldn't have much of a chance IMO in attacking the city. First of all where would they get equipment for a siege? Secondly it is said that the Hightowers can raise more men than any of the other Tyrell bannerman. And lastly the Greyjoys have sent the Iron Fleet across the narrow sea.

[Artos Stark]

They are by far the most powerful vassal house in Westeros and can raise three times as many swords as any other vassal in the Reach. So at the minimum that would be 12,000 men that they could raise to defend themselves. They could augment this number with lowborn males from the gutters of Oldtown, considering the city is roughly 450,000 strong. They are not the ideal defenders but in times of war they will have to deal with it.

The gold of house Hightower is supposedly second only to the Lannisters. They are building warships to deal with the Greyjoys at the moment and the ships that are already at port can be used. If Wyman Manderly can make 50 warships the Hightowers may be able to raise 50-100 depending on the time they have before the Greyjoys attack. One of the Hightowers are off to Lys to hire sellsails. Since Sallador Saan had 23 ships that is a reasonable speculation number of how many they could bring to Oldtown. Of course if their "whore sister" helps out this number could be higher and of better quality (most sellsails arent as good as Sallador Saan).

So we have a rough breakdown at

Hightower

12,000-18,000 men

50-100 warships

unsure number of merchant vessals

23-50 sellsails

Greyjoy

20,000-30,000 men

1,000 ships (mostly longships)

If Oldtowns walls are strong I would say that the Hightowers would prevail. They stand no chance against them at sea until Paxter Redwynes fleet gets there but the Greyjoys cannot get inside the cities walls if the Hightowers are well prepared. Their port will be destroyed and traders will dry up, the cities economy will be screwed and in turn Westeros.

I don't think there is any way that the Greyjoys have 20,000 men after their losses in the North, battles with the Tyrells and the Iron Fleet leaving for Essos. Also they are likely to take HUGE losses in their impending battle with Garlan and his army. I don't know if Euron would be fool enough to engage him on the mainland but if he does he will lose.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

The Hightowers are not pushovers, and they would have Redwyne power also, I really don't think the greyjoys could win. they are at their strongest at sea, so if they landed and tried to take a city, i don't think it would go in their favor.

[Stoned Dragon]

The Dragon is bound to the Horn's Master. But Euron is the one who found the Horn, and obviously knows a lot more about it than Victarrion.

The Horn's master isn't the one who blows it. So it is pretty obvious that Euron has already bound himself to the Horn as its master, and the moment Victarrion arranges for it to be blown, the Dragon is going to take off for the west and head straight for Euron.

Victarrion will then be left dumbfounded, and probably die in the resulting fallout, having been manipulated by his far more intelligent brother yet again.

Euron found the Horn, and I don't doubt he read the inscription and already bound the horn to himself, but he was counting on the fact that Victarion would not see the Valryian script on the side or be able to read it. Moquorro changed all of that, and the way it sounds in the WoW chapter GRRM read, it seems like Vic was pretty sure (and so was Moquorro) that the horn would work for him.

Moqorro does. If the dragon flies off toward Pyke and Victarion is standing there looking like an idiot, where is the finger of blame going to point?

Only way to avoid it is if Victarion is too stupid to realize what happened or if Moqorro disappears before it all goes down.

Moqorro allowed himself to sail on a doomed ship, escape, drift in the ocean for days without going mad from the seawater, and get to Vic. We have to remember he isn't going to Dany for himself, he is going because he believes she is AA and was the Red Priest dispatched to guide her (sort of how Aemon wanted a Maester send to guide Dany). More importantly, he is headed to her because she is also the "Breaker of Chains" and he is not only a slave but is attempting to bring her back to free subjects. He needs her and he needs the dragon, as they are all part of her prophesy in his eyes. The betrayal for Moqorro isn't going to be the horn not working, but the belief he is wants Vic to get Dany herself.

Unlikely. Victarrion has been shown to be somewhat slow witted. Great when dealign with direct threats, but not the mastermind behind an Ironborn invasion. Euron knows his pressure points, and knows how to manipulate him. He also knows Victarrion hates him, and that Victarrion will sieze the first opportunity to try and claim the dragons for himself.

Euron's entire plan hinges on Dragons. He has no hope of prevailing against the rest of Westeros without them. Why would he trust Victarrion for all of this, after he had so carefully planned everything else?

What, did he think that after giving the Horn to Victarrion, Victarrion would bind the Dragons and just meekly hand them over to Euron upon his return? Of course not.

Euron is the Horn's Master. That is pretty obvious.

I agree that Euron was the master of the horn when he left, but he expected Vic to DIE when he blew the horn, so he didn't need to worry about who would control them. They would be bound to him, Vic would be out of the picture. If I had to speculate, I believe that's the purpose of the bed-slave without a tongue that Euron gifted Victarion. She's close enough to hear his plans, he doesn't suspect she's any threat because she can't talk (think Jaime and Payne) but it would be interesting if she could write or communicate in other ways. In the original plan, I think Euron binds the horn, Vic blows it, and the mute slave and whomever else her accomplices may be in the crew take possession.

In terms of Vic not being a mastermind, that's probably true. However, you don't need to be a Mastermind when you have the most accurate Red Priest we've seen thus far in the story telling you where ships are, what the weather is, and basically whatever you need to know in the future.

Euron want the citadel and the knowledge, knowledge is power, and he would harm the hole relm by destroying the citadel and cutting the suppley of maesters

I think the only thing Oldtown has knowledge-wise that Euron actually needs is that book about dragons they keep under lock and key.

Side Note: We also should keep in mind that Vic probably won't die in Meereen trying to get the dragons because he is already dead. When you read the chapter about how his hand was healed, it's the only one that has ever shifted into third person omniscient for a while and then returns to being a regular P.O.V. style. I personally believe Vic is dead and that will make all the difference in the world when it comes to the Horn, the fleet, and whether or not he makes it back to even try and aid taking Oldtown

[History of Westeros]

Euron flat out tells Victarion that the guy who blew the horn at the Kingsmoot died from it, even going so far as to describe the man's charred lungs.

So clearly Euron wasn't trying to get Vic to blow it. Thus, he must have some other plan in mind than murder-by-horn.

Also, Euron probably doesn't want Vic dead until he's back in Westeros at the earliest, as Vic's death in Meereen could result in the Iron Fleet being poorly led back home. If Euron is hiding in the fleet or the like, then keeping Vic alive seems less important.

[Jin Uzuki]

This is an interesting question, the original post. I would lean towards "no", similar to Mark Sawyer earlier.

I wonder if J'qen's mission in the Citadel somehow involve the Ironborn. Very outlandish, but perhaps the Ironborn want J'qen to make the Citadel defenseless in preparation for their attack.

[Last of the Darklyns]

So we have a rough breakdown at

Hightower

12,000-18,000 men

50-100 warships

unsure number of merchant vessals

23-50 sellsails

Greyjoy

20,000-30,000 men

1,000 ships (mostly longships)

Simce when can a few rocky and inhospitable islands 1/10 the size of the Crownlands support 20,000-30,000 men?

[Ser Q]

I think the Iron born are heading straight for Highgarden other wise why secure the mander and leave men to guard the mouth of the river. They want to loot the Rose and win the reach through taking on the Tyrell house seat.

[Swordsaint]

I have a feeling the Greyjoy's will win at Oldtown. It'll give them some credibility as a culture that supposedly breeds hard men. With or without dragons. I think it'll be similar to the scene with Asha Greyjoy on her killing spree at Deepwood Motte. Another words, "completely unrealistic." My memory is a bit hazy, but what did she kill like seven men? And she was only stopped due to twisting her own ankle on a tree root? I could be wrong since it's been a while since I read it.

[Frey Pie]

Unless Euron pulls a fast one then the Hightowers should prevail in any attack. Unless supplies are very low in the city and so it can be starved out but lets not forget the Ironborn are more practiced reavers. I have no doubt individually that the Ironborn individually are among the finest, most ferocious infantry fighters in Westeros. But they have no cavalry. And IIRC they through axes more than shoot arrows, which is another huge disadvantage.

Oldtown should have formidable defenses. Unless they use guile or circumstances go drastically in their favour the Hightowers should win. Lets not also forget that the Ironfleet has left, which is their finest ships and one must think many of their finest troops. Clear KO for Hightower

[barbandazi]

If the Ironborn beat the Redwynes at see maybe they can capture the Arbor.