THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[Alarum]

I don't think there is anyone at the Wall that is privy to all the information in the letter.

What about your namesake? Apart from her firevision she has some nebulous connection/influence over Mance to the conceivable point of him serving as her eyes and ears in Winterfell. Which is why I consider her and Mance as inhabiting one perspective since donning that big fat ruby. I feel you have to allow the possibility that it was Melisandre that wanted Jon to forsake his vows and even initiate his (first) life's forfeiture. Can't overlook the eerieness of Wick throwing his hands up like he just got flagged for interference and Jon's inability to function mechanically. There's clearly something amiss about how that whole scene plays out.

[Melifeather]

What about your namesake? Apart from her firevision she has some nebulous connection/influence over Mance to the conceivable point of him serving as her eyes and ears in Winterfell. Which is why I consider her and Mance as inhabiting one perspective since donning that big fat ruby. I feel you have to allow the possibility that it was Melisandre that wanted Jon to forsake his vows and even initiate his (first) life's forfeiture. Can't overlook the eerieness of Wick throwing his hands up like he just got flagged for interference and Jon's inability to function mechanically. There's clearly something amiss about how that whole scene plays out.

Melisandre would not know about Reek. She also wouldn't know that the fake Arya got away. I'm sure she understood that Alys escaping the Karstarks was a different vision than the Bolton's assertion that they had Arya.

[Alarum]

My point is that Mel isn't subject to the same practical assumptions we can make concerning who knows what. Every night she's looking in her fires, seeing much and more, not a ton of which we are privy to. She also has a plant in Winterfell with whom there exists some kind of supernatural connection, the parameters of which we are also not privy to. Considering these two quirks that warp conventional rationality we cannot necessarily rule out Mel as a key player in the orchestrating of Jon's final scene or the antagonizing letter.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

Melisandre would not know about Reek. She also wouldn't know that the fake Arya got away. I'm sure she understood that Alys escaping the Karstarks was a different vision than the Bolton's assertion that they had Arya.

I agree. Melisandre may be powerful but she cannot even figure out what is going on with Stannis ("All I see is snow.") She's not going to see Reek, Ramsay, Fake Arya, etc. There's no support for this idea from the text and Melisandre is a POV character so we know her thoughts.

[Mammothsbane]

My point is that Mel isn't subject to the same practical assumptions we can make concerning who knows what. Every night she's looking in her fires, seeing much and more, not a ton of which we are privy to. She also has a plant in Winterfell with whom there exists some kind of supernatural connection, the parameters of which we are also not privy to. Considering these two quirks that warp conventional rationality we cannot necessarily rule out Mel as a key player in the orchestrating of Jon's final scene or the antagonizing letter.

Actually, I completely disagree. Mel has already shown that she isn't the best at interpreting images she sees in her fires, nor has she demonstrated any "spiritual" connection to Mance Rayder. I don't doubt she sees things in her fires, but it has been emphasized on numerous occasions how wrong she usually is. To suggest that she is suddenly able to see things occurring in Winterfell and accurately decipher their meanings is a little premature, I think.

And there is nothing to suggest that she has some intense connection with Mance Rayder outside the glamour. There hasn't been any evidence to suggest that she can "possess" or share thoughts with him.

[Lummel]

The more I look at it the more likely that it seems to me that the letter is what it seems to be - a letter from Ramsey, perhaps with some input from Mance that has been obtained one way or another.

[Alarum]

Actually, I completely disagree. Mel has already shown that she isn't the best at interpreting images she sees in her fires, nor has she demonstrated any "spiritual" connection to Mance Rayder. I don't doubt she sees things in her fires, but it has been emphasized on numerous occasions how wrong she usually is. To suggest that she is suddenly able to see things occurring in Winterfell and accurately decipher their meanings is a little premature, I think.

And there is nothing to suggest that she has some intense connection with Mance Rayder outside the glamour. There hasn't been any evidence to suggest that she can "possess" or share thoughts with him.

I didn't use the words "spiritual" or "intense" in defining the Mel/Mance relationship, I said "supernatural," meaning something exceeding the bounds of real-life, physical convention. If the dragons didn't tip you off in aGoT, we're in a friggin dream world here, man, and the sorceress with the magical ruby on her neck just made one man appear as another man without the use of lighting or makeup. While I echo Lummel's above sentiments about grudgingly accepting the letter at face value, we still don't know the bounds of Mel's powers enough to necessarily rule anything out.

While you could rationally say that Littlefinger doesn't know Tormund's middle name since Littlefinger has never been beyond the Wall or interacted with anyone in any related capacity, you can't necessarily hold the story's more magically engaged characters (Mel, Marwyn, Pree, Qaithe, etc.) to the same rules of logic.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

I didn't use the words "spiritual" or "intense" in defining the Mel/Mance relationship, I said "supernatural," meaning something exceeding the bounds of real-life, physical convention. If the dragons didn't tip you off in aGoT, we're in a friggin dream world here, man, and the sorceress with the magical ruby on her neck just made one man appear as another man without the use of lighting or makeup. While I echo Lummel's above sentiments about grudgingly accepting the letter at face value, we still don't know the bounds of Mel's powers enough to necessarily rule anything out.

While you could rationally say that Littlefinger doesn't know Tormund's middle name since Littlefinger has never been beyond the Wall or interacted with anyone in any related capacity, you can't necessarily hold the story's more magically engaged characters (Mel, Marwyn, Pree, Qaithe, etc.) to the same rules of logic.

Sure, we can't "necessarily" say that but one has to look at the text and make a logical connection about the PROBABILITY of something being true. Melisandre is a POV character. We see her thoughts. She makes no reference to Arya (except mistakenly thinking Alyssa Karstark is Arya) and there is no indication she has the first clue about Theon or Ramsay. The idea that she, despite efforts to learn about Stannis' whereabouts, somehow has "communed" with Mance and therefore knows, through Mance about the status of the seige of Winterfell, has zero support in the text of any novel. In fact, the Mel POV chapters would indicate that she is not thinking about Mance, Theon or any Bolton or even about the struggle for the control of the North, except as it relates to Stannis.

[Mammothsbane]

I didn't use the words "spiritual" or "intense" in defining the Mel/Mance relationship, I said "supernatural," meaning something exceeding the bounds of real-life, physical convention. If the dragons didn't tip you off in aGoT, we're in a friggin dream world here, man, and the sorceress with the magical ruby on her neck just made one man appear as another man without the use of lighting or makeup. While I echo Lummel's above sentiments about grudgingly accepting the letter at face value, we still don't know the bounds of Mel's powers enough to necessarily rule anything out.

While you could rationally say that Littlefinger doesn't know Tormund's middle name since Littlefinger has never been beyond the Wall or interacted with anyone in any related capacity, you can't necessarily hold the story's more magically engaged characters (Mel, Marwyn, Pree, Qaithe, etc.) to the same rules of logic.

I recognize that we're in a fantasy world. I'm simply evaluating an individual's magical prowess based on previously established baselines in her POV and evidence in the text. We actually do know the bounds of her magic - she isn't very good at interpretations. She (through her POV) did not give any indication of appealing to "supernatural" capabilities with regard to Mance's glamour. He is glamoured, which is supernatural and tied to the ruby, but, as far as the text states, that is the extent of her capabilities with regards to Mance. It is also stated in her chapter I believe that the "bones" of Rattleshirt have an effect, and it's brought up again that people are "seeing what they want to see" with regards to Mance being Rattleshirt (which is also a running theme in the series). Granted, she is doing something with the ruby and all, but I don't think it extends any further than his appearance and, based on the text, there is no reason to suspect otherwise.

We are conforming to previously established guidelines set in the world. If there is some evidence in the text that suggests Mance and Mel have some deeper "supernatural" connection, please provide it and I'd love to change my stance on the issue. But for now, I don't think she had anything to do with the letter because she doesn't know the information necessary to write it.

[Areo Speedwagon]

I agree with Alarum on this one.

Melisandre is a POV character. We see her thoughts.

I think that's a liberal use of the word "is."

The idea that she, despite efforts to learn about Stannis' whereabouts, somehow has "communed" with Mance and therefore knows, through Mance about the status of the seige of Winterfell, has zero support in the text of any novel.

I'm at work and don't have the books in front of me but doesn't Mance mention (before he leaves) that he can feel his will weakening? Something about him feeling something or hearing something in his head that isn't his own. Maybe I'm wrong, I did plow through all the books last summer over a three and a half week span and haven't re-read. But if I'm not and there is some agency acting within Mance's consciousness, I think it perfectly reasonable that: 1) that agency is Melisandre, and 2) it may not be a one way connection, meaning she could 'use' Mance's eyes and ears as her own.

Mel has already shown that she isn't the best at interpreting images she sees in her fires

The idea that she, despite efforts to learn about Stannis' whereabouts, [...]

I think that's a little unfair. She's not necessarily wrong, she's just asked the wrong question. She asked "show me Azor Ahai" thinking AA = Stannis and she was confused by what the fire showed her. Had she asked "Show me Stannis Baratheon" she may have been able to decipher the flames easier. Maybe there are other instances of her being wrong, but I can't think of them, again I read them very fast. If there are, please let me know. It seems to me that is the example most people point to when they claim Mel is not the best at reading flames. It seems to me she isn't spiritually confounded here, merely linguistically misguided in her belief that Stannis = AA.

[Rainy]

i say its from Ramsay, Mance was actually Abal and his spear wives the washerwoman, that enplanes there braveness and there trying to save "Arrya"

[VaramyrSixchins]

The more I look at it the more likely that it seems to me that the letter is what it seems to be - a letter from Ramsey, perhaps with some input from Mance that has been obtained one way or another.

I've read a few objections to this based on the conspicuous omission of the "spiky hand" description that Jon and Asha both use when contemplating Ramsay's previous letters. I'm thinking maybe Jon just forgot, as when he and Tormund are discussing the validity of the letter, it seems that that would've been a good time for Jon to do some comparative handwriting analysis, or at least bring up the fact he's seen Ramsay's writing before.

I do agree that the Boltons had the most to gain from the letter. Whether Ramsay wrote it himself, or Roose was posing as Ramsay, the purpose of the letter in my mind was to cow/blackmail Jon into keeping his silence about fake Arya. The only thing worse for the Bolton claim than Arya's escape would be Arya running to Jon, a man who not only had (at least obstinsibly) the political neutrality of the NW LC to be unafraid to blow the whistle, but is also a Stark. Who could or would seriously question his credibility if he openly declared Arya fake? The Boltons know they are doomed, doomed, doomed if Jon talks. So, they write a goading, sneering letter from a supposed position of power telling Jon essentially, "If you talk about Arya, we talk about Mance. How do you think the North will react to your cozy relationship with the King-Beyond-The-Wall?" They are banking on two things: 1) that Jon, a man who did nothing when his father was killed; his brother called the banners and was subsequently murdered; his two younger brothers were killed; Winterfell sacked; one sister married to a Lannister and the other to a notorious sociopath is a coward and can be intimidated into silence, and 2) that the revelation of the Mance deception and Jon's relationship with him will be enough to damage Jon's credibility and reputation in the event he talks about Arya.

Too bad for them Jon doesn't give a feck about any of that and was on the verge of mustering a wildling army.

It's clear, though, that the Boltons either are feeding Jon misinformation to make his situation seem more dire and thus more likely to cow him, or they have been fed misinformation themselves and are operating under several wrong assumptions.

[dustyboy316]

My point is that Mel isn't subject to the same practical assumptions we can make concerning who knows what. Every night she's looking in her fires, seeing much and more, not a ton of which we are privy to. She also has a plant in Winterfell with whom there exists some kind of supernatural connection, the parameters of which we are also not privy to. Considering these two quirks that warp conventional rationality we cannot necessarily rule out Mel as a key player in the orchestrating of Jon's final scene or the antagonizing letter.

I think it's more reason to believe that. Azor Ahai needs to be reborn. What better way to be reborn than being killed and reviving?

[Lord Flashheart]

i say its from Ramsay, Mance was actually Abal and his spear wives the washerwoman, that enplanes there braveness and there trying to save "Arrya"

:bowdown: Nailled It!

[Lummel]

I've read a few objections to this based on the conspicuous omission of the "spiky hand" description that Jon and Asha both use when contemplating Ramsay's previous letters. I'm thinking maybe Jon just forgot, as when he and Tormund are discussing the validity of the letter, it seems that that would've been a good time for Jon to do some comparative handwriting analysis, or at least bring up the fact he's seen Ramsay's writing before...

Yes, it's an absense of evidence is not evidence of absense situation. It's actually pretty unusual for anybody to write their own letters, that seems to be mostly done by the maesters so one possibility is that Jon doesn't mention the brown lettering and spiky handwriting another that it was a letter dictated by Ramsey.

[kaaposc]

Some notes about who knows what:

• Just after Sigorn Magnar of Thenn and Alys Karstark were married Jon had some words with Melisandre:

  "And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show?" - "The same, I fear. Only snow."

  Either Melisandre *knows nothing* about Mance after he left Castle Black or she is lying.
  
• Dolorous Edd had some knowledge about Mance's Winterfell mission:

  "On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Ray­der and six spear­wives on the north. “Young ones, and pretty,” Mance had said. The un­burnt king sup­plied some names, and Do­lor­ous Edd had done the rest, smug­gling them from Mole’s Town."

  But Dolorous Edd left with wildling women after Tormund lead his people through the Wall. Maybe he shared some info with other black brothers?
  
• While being a tapestry on the tower wall at Stannis camp Theon says the same words that appear in this damned letter to Stannis:

  "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

  Either Stannis knows what is "Reek" and why Ramsay would want him back or he just doesn't care about it.
  

Some other thoughts about Jon's reaction to the letter. He thinks "Kill the boy and let the man be born". It seems to me he is trying to suppress his emotions about Arya and act more mature. Also in the Shieldhall he doesn't say "I'll go save my sister" because 1) letter says Ramsay doesn't hold her and 2) wildlings wouldn't care much about some black crow's sister. Instead he says "This crea­ture who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words." Although he 3 times repeats words from the letter "I want my bride back" to himself. Honestly, I can't figure out his emotions, feelings and motives.

[Mammothsbane]

Some notes about who knows what:

• Just after Sigorn Magnar of Thenn and Alys Karstark were married Jon had some words with Melisandre:
  
  Either Melisandre *knows nothing* about Mance after he left Castle Black or she is lying.
  
• Dolorous Edd had some knowledge about Mance's Winterfell mission:
  
  But Dolorous Edd left with wildling women after Tormund lead his people through the Wall. Maybe he shared some info with other black brothers?
  
• While being a tapestry on the tower wall at Stannis camp Theon says the same words that appear in this damned letter to Stannis:
  
  Either Stannis knows what is "Reek" and why Ramsay would want him back or he just doesn't care about it.
  

Some other thoughts about Jon's reaction to the letter. He thinks "Kill the boy and let the man be born". It seems to me he is trying to suppress his emotions about Arya and act more mature. Also in the Shieldhall he doesn't say "I'll go save my sister" because 1) letter says Ramsay doesn't hold her and 2) wildlings wouldn't care much about some black crow's sister. Instead he says "This crea­ture who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words." Although he 3 times repeats words from the letter "I want my bride back" to himself. Honestly, I can't figure out his emotions, feelings and motives.

1) It is possible that she is seeing Mance exposed to the elements in his cage. Or she truly doesn't see Mance because she isn't looking for him - she is looking for the Prince.

2) It's possible Edd didn't know anything about Mance's mission or his identity. Jon could have simply asked him to fetch him the six women for Rattleshirt. Edd and other black brothers may know that "Rattleshirt"/Mance had left to fetch the "grey girl on a dying horse," but not of his mission to Winterfell. If truth be told, I'm not sure even Mel knows of Mance's mission to Winterfell. She may, but two options exist:

-either Mance made an executive decision when he didn't find the girl on a dying horse east of Long Lake. Mance, either altruistically attempting to get Jon Snow's half-sister or for his own personal motivations, decided to join Manderly's host and go to Winterfell to see if the girl was there.

-Mel specifically directed Mance to go to Winterfell for reasons unknown.

To be honest, I'm not sure of either of these. It has been suggested that Mance was in contact with Manderly or the Umbers at some point, but I don't think that's true.

3) Theon saying that Ramsay "wants his bride back. He wants his Reek" could simply be an indication that Ramsay wrote the letter. Reek knows Ramsay almost as good as Ramsay knows himself. He had to, for fear of suffering intense torture. Theon also always responds to Ramsay that he is "Your Reek. Your man" and things to that effect. He knows that Ramsay speaks of people "beneath" him in a possessive sense.

As for the handwritting discrepancy, I always thought that Ramsay wrote in his "big, spiky hand" because he had no real education and was just beginning to learn his letters. Think of a young child learning to write; their handwritting is often large, sharp, and exaggerated. I believe that in this case with the letter (I think it's Ramsay who wrote it based on misinformation and a "Trojan Horse" plot by Manderly/Stannis/Umber) Ramsay needed to get the letter out as quickly as possible and simply dictated it to a maester who wrote the letter to Jon, as opposed to his other letters where he was able to take his time and send them at his leisure. It's possible Ramsay could take days to write in his own hand. The maester could do it much quicker.

[Pelican]

‘I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R’hllor shows me only Snow.’

"And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show?" - "The same, I fear. Only snow."

Maybe there is a Stark at Winterfell, if Mance is still there. It would be interesting to see if Jon and Mance's family trees intersect. Maybe Jon was very wise to send Mance's little prince -- whose life depends on some promises -- far away. I think the letter is from Mance in code, maybe to Jon and Tormund. Mance might want access to Winterfell as a refuge for the wildlings -- better a partial ruin than nothing at all. If he has old family ties to the place, he might know to slip down to the crypts and move some swords around.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

What would be Rose's motivation to send such a letter to Jon? I've never considered Roose a viable possible author.

[Melifeather]

What would be Rose's motivation to send such a letter to Jon? I've never considered Roose a viable possible author.

I for one would confidently eliminate Roose. He's too cunning to do something so....obvious and blatant. The Red Wedding personifies "Roose", with its unmerciful, bloody deceit. They've been Stark antagonists for years. They may have submitted, but always plotting revenge in a hidden, two-faced way. Roose would never reveal his hand in such a manner.